Confirmed with Link: Per Friedman, Leafs and Zaitsev have agreed to move on, will find trade for him

[Ziggdiezan]

Thats whats so bizarre. Im heavily into analytics and his numbers are solid. In the playoffs he is elite. Top 10 in the NHL.

When a narrative gets rolling though.....

One of the problems is his relative numbers aren't great but I think player usage effects relative stats way more than they are given credit for.

For example when looking at zone starts alone a guy like Z gets an oZS% of 41.9% while Dermott has 57%, Rielly has 54.8%, Hainsey is even higher than Z at 48.7%. This alone has a very large effect on relative shot based statistics as a guy like dermott starts in the offensive zone 30.5% more in relation to Zaitsev. That is massive and doesnt even account for changes on the fly whereby Z is taken off pretty much as soon as his team clears the defensive zone.

Long and short of it is that it is hard to have good relative advanced stats when you receive significantly more difficult usage than any defender on the team.

 

[sparxx87]

Thats whats so bizarre. Im heavily into analytics and his numbers are solid. In the playoffs he is elite. Top 10 in the NHL.

When a narrative gets rolling though.....

I’ll be honest, I pay zero attention to analytics.. I just assumed they weren’t good because they’re always the counter argument to the eye test on this topic. Months ago I spent far too much time trying to explain his value and it was always just quoted with graphs and charts that I didn’t even look at.

 

[Go4soda]

I wasn't commenting on Rielly, just on the bolded.

I agree with you re. Rielly and I also happen to think that Kadri was doing just fine and improving every year before Babcock came along. As far as counselling work goes, I haven't heard that he's been getting any sort of counselling and if he is, it doesn't seem to have had any effect on him.

Yeah realized after that my response is to the wrong person in that conversation. Regarding kadri, he has admitted that off ice behaviour and lifestyle issues hurt his development early on. I heard Brian Burke on the radio saying that the counselling, and “many talks “ began when he was working in Toronto. Nazem admitted also to being given the talk many times by management.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

Ya agreed, with such a lack of RD it would be crazy to trade Z for a very bad return or even have to add to move him.

He gets way too much flack around here and I really dont think the leafs are going to find a better RD that is paid less than Z and doesnt cost someone like Nylander.

Probably would be easier to buy up some media outlets and start firing hot take artists into the sun.

I'd like to see what Muzzin and him can do with a full summer, camp and preseason to get back on the same page they were on in the playoffs.

 

[Crosscrease14]

Kind of like how Morgan Rielly is becoming Norris worthy candidate under Mike Babcock's tutelage?

I don't think Zaitsev wanting out has much to do with the coach, but rather he cited media issues and criticism of his play.

Did you read his interview from Russia? He said he "goes out, gets the puck out and goes to the bench."That's when Rielly comes on. I'm not saying Zaitsev is a lethal weapon offensively but he has much more to show than he has under Babcock.

 

[deletethis]

One of the problems is his relative numbers aren't great but I think player usage effects relative stats way more than they are given credit for.

For example when looking at zone starts alone a guy like Z gets an oZS% of 41.9% while Dermott has 57%, Rielly has 54.8%, Hainsey is even higher than Z at 48.7%. This alone has a very large effect on relative shot based statistics as a guy like dermott starts in the offensive zone 30.5% more in relation to Zaitsev. That is massive and doesnt even account for changes on the fly whereby Z is taken off pretty much as soon as his team clears the defensive zone.

Long and short of it is that it is hard to have good relative advanced stats when you receive significantly more difficult usage than any defender on the team.

I imagine it's even deeper than that. He's got high defensive zone starts AND his opposition for those defensive zone starts was mostly 1st/2nd line opposition as well. Gauthier and his linemates had very high defensive zone starts but doubtless it was almost exclusively against the opposition's 4th line.

 

[Mess]

Did you read his interview from Russia? He said he "goes out, gets the puck out and goes to the bench."That's when Rielly comes on. I'm not saying Zaitsev is a lethal weapon offensively but he has much more to show than he has under Babcock.

With team Russia he plays a bigger role and gets PP time.

On the Leafs he is used in more a defensive role because other players Rielly, Gardiner get the PP time, and him and Muzzin play shutdown roles and the PK.

Zaitsev's complaint is that he isn't given the same opportunities to prove himself offenisively, but part of that is because Leafs use Marner PP#1 and Nylander PP#2 both forwards on the right point and that is where RHD Zaitsev would play if he was on the PP. That isn't really a fair criticism against Babcock that he uses a forward on the point on the PP because many teams use an extra forward in this role and both Mitch and Willy shoot right so play where he would.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Did you read his interview from Russia? He said he "goes out, gets the puck out and goes to the bench."That's when Rielly comes on. I'm not saying Zaitsev is a lethal weapon offensively but he has much more to show than he has under Babcock.

and the inexperienced fans will consider him trash because he is not given much of a chance to up his CF (Corsi for) and he takes a beating on CA (Corsi against) etc ...

 

[deletethis]

I remember the nasty media hit pieces and droning on about Yuskevich in the late 1990's. There I was admiring his bravery, hardness and steady play and those media hacks wouldn't shut up about "how brutal" he was playing. It was a different time and maybe that crap was easier to tune out. Yuskevich (and organization) endured and he was a big part of Quinn's contending teams at the turn of the century.

I think this thread has done a nice job of finally recognizing that Zaitsev will be a significant loss for the organization. Regardless the loss appears to be happening. Hopefully a player with a thicker skin can take over his role as the same people will inevitably vilify whoever takes on this thankless role of matchup/defensive right side defender that can't possibly produce sexy stats.

 

[dangomon]

Did you read his interview from Russia? He said he "goes out, gets the puck out and goes to the bench."That's when Rielly comes on. I'm not saying Zaitsev is a lethal weapon offensively but he has much more to show than he has under Babcock.

I'm holding firm that whichever team acquires his (assuming he's traded) will be pleasantly surprised at his effect and production. Thats not to say he's going to be a 1D stud, but he will live up to his contract if put in the right situation.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Did you read his interview from Russia? He said he "goes out, gets the puck out and goes to the bench."That's when Rielly comes on. I'm not saying Zaitsev is a lethal weapon offensively but he has much more to show than he has under Babcock.

Yeah, except it's obviously a vast exagerration. Zaitsev does not head off ice as soon as the puck is out of the defensive zone. His shift changes have been just as normal. He goes off when there's a good chance to if he's played a full shift. Just like everybody else. And while he does start in the defensive zone more often, we're still talking about about one third of his shifts. He might need to go off after a defensive shift more often than others on our team, but he also does a worse job turning a defensive shift into an offensive shift, so the blame for that partially falls on him.

And I don't think Zaitsev has shown that he can influence offense on the rush or cycle for us.

 

[showtime8]

I'm holding firm that whichever team acquires his (assuming he's traded) will be pleasantly surprised at his effect and production. Thats not to say he's going to be a 1D stud, but he will live up to his contract if put in the right situation.

What would be the best situation for him though?

I thought he was quite effective paired as a shutdown guy with Muzzin. Agree that the team acquiring him will be happy if he's not required to put up points.

 

[Mr Hockey]

only Polak was able to play with Gardiner, he let Jake play his typical pickup game style of hockey and he just sat back and watched and he just fired the puck out when it came to him.

 

[Zybalto]

Yeah, except it's obviously a vast exagerration. Zaitsev does not head off ice as soon as the puck is out of the defensive zone. His shift changes have been just as normal. He goes off when there's a good chance to if he's played a full shift. Just like everybody else. And while he does start in the defensive zone more often, we're still talking about about one third of his shifts. He might need to go off after a defensive shift more often than others on our team, but he also does a worse job turning a defensive shift into an offensive shift, so the blame for that partially falls on him.
And I don't think Zaitsev has shown that he can influence offense on the rush or cycle for us.

Again, a big problem with the media blackout of anything good Zaitsev is the underrating of just how improved he has been on pinches and stopping the rush this year when compared to his peers. He consistently prolonged offensive cycles which led to a ton of additional scoring chances for the team. His personal transitions are still inconsistent but he was still good at getting the puck out and stopping the other teams momentum, usually the more dangerous players on the other team. Blocking shots and stopping the other teams cycles also led to quick transitions the other way which was a strength on this team.

Heres a stat that no one in the media wants you to see:

Most scoring chances created/60 while on the ice 5v5 dmen (score adjusted, 1200 minutes minimum, 90 dmen total), follow by Offensive zone faceoff%:

1. 34.85 - Morgan Rielly, 54.81% offensive zone faceoffs
2. 32.86 - Dougie Hamilton, 54.87% offensive zone faceoffs
3. 32.10 - Shea Theodore, 55.28% offensive zone faceoffs
4. 32.00 - Nikita Zaitsev, 41.92% offensive zone faceoffs
5. 31.96 - Kris Letang, 51.49% offensive zone faceoffs

If he were actually a negative in this regard, he couldnt possibly be this high on the list. Im sure Gards plays a part as well but Zaitsev also spent a ton of time with Hainsey and Muzzin in heavy D shifts at the end of games.

What do you make of it?

 

[Jeypic]

We need to convince zaitsev to stay. It’s our fault he’s leaving.. we gotta fix it now! Start sending him fan mail. Lol

 

[TheProspector]

GTFO with this "Zaitsev is actually good' bullshit. Yes, he's more defensively deployed. He's still hot garbage.

He's in the 11th percentile for exits with possession. He's only *average* at two things: denying entries and taking shots. He's bottom quarter in practically everything else.

 

[dangomon]

What would be the best situation for him though?

I thought he was quite effective paired as a shutdown guy with Muzzin. Agree that the team acquiring him will be happy if he's not required to put up points.

I think he needs some freedom in moving forward, some PP time wouldn't hurt as well. Based on his interviews he was limited in how much offence he could create based on his responsibilities and his assignments. He showed he's a capable 2PP guy in his rookie year.

Maybe don't give your 3-4 guy the toughest minutes with the toughest zone starts. Just let him be a 3-4 guy.

 

[sparxx87]

I think he needs some freedom in moving forward, some PP time wouldn't hurt as well. Based on his interviews he was limited in how much offence he could create based on his responsibilities and his assignments. He showed he's a capable 2PP guy in his rookie year.

Maybe don't give your 3-4 guy the toughest minutes with the toughest zone starts. Just let him be a 3-4 guy.

For sure.

Wish they had a 2-3 guy who could alleviate some of his work load.

 

[GoonieFace]

I heard Zaitsev would stay if the Leafs acquired Patrick O'Thuggo..stay tuned

 

[Warden of the North]

and the inexperienced fans will consider him trash because he is not given much of a chance to up his CF (Corsi for) and he takes a beating on CA (Corsi against) etc ...

No, I think hes trash because he throws pizzas up the middle often and hears a shadow coming like no one else resulting in unpressured defensive zone giveaways.

 

[Mr Hockey]

No, I think hes trash because he throws pizzas up the middle often and hears a shadow coming like no one else resulting in unpressured defensive zone giveaways.

Usually, d'men will pass the puck back and forth, etc and move out of the d'zone... It doesn't work that way with Jake, once the puck is on his stick, Zaitsev/Leafs forwards have no idea what he is going to do with it and often causes Zaitsev to panic and get caught out of position , Dermott found out what its like in the playoffs...imo

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Usually, d'men will pass the puck back and forth, etc and move out of the d'zone... It doesn't work that way with Jake, once the puck is on his stick, Zaitsev/Leafs forwards have no idea what he is going to do with it and often causes Zaitsev to panic and get caught out of position , Dermott found out what its like in the playoffs...imo

This is so very true. Gards for all his skills does not even know himself what he plans on doing with the puck. He is likely the hardest guy to play with in the NHL due to his unconventionality. But that said Z hands are bad. and he is small. but he can skate. too bad he was not taller bigger and meanier because he can skate.

 

[Mr Hockey]

This is why you can't play Rielly with Jake, Rielly becomes a passenger because Jake wants and keeps the puck and diddles around until he feels like moving it or puts himself under pressure and makes unforced errors...

 

[Nithoniniel]

Again, a big problem with the media blackout of anything good Zaitsev is the underrating of just how improved he has been on pinches and stopping the rush this year when compared to his peers. He consistently prolonged offensive cycles which led to a ton of additional scoring chances for the team. His personal transitions are still inconsistent but he was still good at getting the puck out and stopping the other teams momentum, usually the more dangerous players on the other team. Blocking shots and stopping the other teams cycles also led to quick transitions the other way which was a strength on this team.

Heres a stat that no one in the media wants you to see:

Most scoring chances created/60 while on the ice 5v5 dmen (score adjusted, 1200 minutes minimum, 90 dmen total), follow by Offensive zone faceoff%:

1. 34.85 - Morgan Rielly, 54.81% offensive zone faceoffs
2. 32.86 - Dougie Hamilton, 54.87% offensive zone faceoffs
3. 32.10 - Shea Theodore, 55.28% offensive zone faceoffs
4. 32.00 - Nikita Zaitsev, 41.92% offensive zone faceoffs
5. 31.96 - Kris Letang, 51.49% offensive zone faceoffs

If he were actually a negative in this regard, he couldnt possibly be this high on the list. Im sure Gards plays a part as well but Zaitsev also spent a ton of time with Hainsey and Muzzin in heavy D shifts at the end of games.

What do you make of it?

First off, I don't really buy the whole "no one in the media wants you to see this"-angle. Just as a suggestion, I think arguments like that undermines your case.

Regarding the stat itself, I'm curious where you get it? Because it doesn't seem to correlate with any other stats I've seen. It's hard to counter your argument before I know that. My preliminary retort would be that outside individual micro stats, the best way we can judge would be to use adjusted RelTM numbers. That would give us a look at how his teammates do offensively when he's on the ice, even after taking contextual factors into account. And Zaitsev has an substantial negative effect on the offense his teammates produce when on the ice with him. That goes well in hand with more advanced models like RAPM and the likes, that try to isolate individual impact as much as possible, and that paints a grim picture of Zaitsev's offensive impact.

As for zone exits, it's been shown that uncontrolled exits barely has a noticeable effect on chances against immediately after. The puck gets out but generally only results in a controlled entry coming back the other way, with offense created as a result. As such, they don't have a significant value. What you want is controlled exits by passing or skating, and Zaitsev does really bad there. That was what I was alluding to.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

No, I think hes trash because he throws pizzas up the middle often and hears a shadow coming like no one else resulting in unpressured defensive zone giveaways.

To be fair I dont think he has been doing that as much recently. Seems to be a confidence thing. When he is low on confidence he just doesnt want the puck so and he gets the puck behind the net, he rings it around the boards whereby it often gets picked off at the blue line. It is hard to watch for sure but I dont recall him doing that as much the 2nd half of the year + playoffs.