Series Talk: Pens vs. Habs - Episode 4

[Speaking Moistly]

Don't think that plays out if you dig deep. Schultz's scoring that season was driven by 18 in 15 in December, and 11 in 11 in January. Letang missed 6 games in December if I count right, and Schultz was 12 in 9 with him and 6 in 6 without him; 2 in 4 with Letang in Jan, so 9 in 7 without him. So that's... 14 in 13 with Letang, 15 in 13 without him. Not really a difference. Feeling too lazy to dig deeper, but it looks like more things were in that bottle.

There's definitely fluctuation and Schultz was his most productive from about November to January but he was more productive without Letang. 0.516ppg is a 42 point player and 0.776ppg is a 64 point player over 82 games. Maybe you try and compare the longer stretches without Letang but I think there's an argument to be made that Schultz benefited from Letang being out. His playoff ppg over 22 games was better than his regular season ppg with Letang in, too. 0.619 vs 0.516.

 

[Peat]

There's definitely fluctuation and Schultz was his most productive from about November to January but he was more productive without Letang. 0.516ppg is a 42 point player and 0.776ppg is a 64 point player over 82 games. Maybe you try and compare the longer stretches without Letang but I think there's an argument to be made that Schultz benefited from Letang being out. His playoff ppg over 22 games was better than his regular season ppg with Letang in, too. 0.619 vs 0.516.

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Fair dinkum on doing the work better than I did but I don't think that particularly disproves my point about there being something else in the bottle. Schultz with Letang there is only just his second most productive season (0.001 difference) and stonks all over the other two. I think there's other elements - defensive partners, being 3D rather than 2D, unnaturally high shooting percentage, maybe lack of unsettled team and injuries - in there.

The 51 point dman is probably a mirage, yeah. But Justin Schultz, 40 point dman, looked a reasonable outcome, and it hasn't quite occurred. It looks like he's more like a 30-35 point guy unless everything sits right for him.

edit: I'd also point out personal production isn't everything and refinding the Schultz who always had sky high GF/60s, GF%s, and PDOs, that would do just nicely for this summer.

 

[Pittsburgh1776]

Goaltending and scoring still concern me. Hopefully Geno is enough to make up for whatever is going on with Sid but he'll be a target. Sounds like he's in beast mode. If it was me, Guentzel and Rust would be on his wings.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Fair dinkum on doing the work better than I did but I don't think that particularly disproves my point about there being something else in the bottle. Schultz with Letang there is only just his second most productive season (0.001 difference) and stonks all over the other two. I think there's other elements - defensive partners, being 3D rather than 2D, unnaturally high shooting percentage, maybe lack of unsettled team and injuries - in there.

The 51 point dman is probably a mirage, yeah. But Justin Schultz, 40 point dman, looked a reasonable outcome, and it hasn't quite occurred. It looks like he's more like a 30-35 point guy unless everything sits right for him.

edit: I'd also point out personal production isn't everything and refinding the Schultz who always had sky high GF/60s, GF%s, and PDOs, that would do just nicely for this summer.

I think it was a career year and Letang’s herniated disc helped him reach 51 points. Letang being out so much was a factor, though. It doesn’t help that Schultz has run into injury problems since. Who knows what he would have done if he’d stayed healthy.

I’d take it. He does have the worst PDO out of the regulars, right? Maybe that explodes at the right time.

 

[Peat]

I think it was a career year and Letang’s herniated disc helped him reach 51 points. Letang being out so much was a factor, though. It doesn’t help that Schultz has run into injury problems since. Who knows what he would have done if he’d stayed healthy.

I’d take it. He does have the worst PDO out of the regulars, right? Maybe that explodes at the right time.

.973. I hadn't realised that. Actually his highest xGF% since 16-17, god knows how.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

.973. I hadn't realised that. Actually his highest xGF% since 16-17, god knows how.

Maybe the injuries scrambling the D around, the team playing so well and Sullivan’s attempts to hide jj-schultz. Idk.

 

[Peat]

Maybe the injuries scrambling the D around, the team playing so well and Sullivan’s attempts to hide jj-schultz. Idk.

I looked at his teammates list on NST to try and make sense of but I can't. His most regular pairing was Pettersson - 400 minutes - and he had an xGF% a little below. He only beat his average xGF% with 3 players. I don't understand how this works.

Oh! I know. I was looking at All Strengths. Not often you see a PP only guy's PDO drop for going from 5v5 to All Strengths. .983 PDO at 5v5, still low.

 

[Bingo71]

Getting more and more concerned that Sid’s “issue” is more serious than anyone wants to admit and that instead of Sully loading up Malkin’s line to have the best chance to score, he’ll still try to “balance” the lines, resulting in a neutered scoring ability.

Tight checking, 1 goal games are what the Habs want and it just may be what they get...

 

[PensandCaps]

17-18 was actually Schultz's best season.

 

[gopens66]

I got behind in the discussion, and maybe this was said, but there was a lot of talk concerning Price. Now, am I wrong (and I may be) in thinking the Pens have done well against him over the years? I know they have had Lundquist's number and lived in his head, but I've been feeling like it's been similar for Price also.

 

[Peat]

I got behind in the discussion, and maybe this was said, but there was a lot of talk concerning Price. Now, am I wrong (and I may be) in thinking the Pens have done well against him over the years? I know they have had Lundquist's number and lived in his head, but I've been feeling like it's been similar for Price also.

Career average of .907 against us with an average of nearly 3 goals a game conceded against us. Only eastern team he's done worse against is Washington.

 

[Andy99]

burn...lol

 

[Gurglesons]

17-18 was actually Schultz's best season.

As an overall “defenseman”. Yes.

But he’s the one guy on our D we don’t pay for his defensive play. He needs to produce.

 

[chethejet]

If Sid plays the flyers game, then he looks to be ready to go. That is still iffy but he is skating and did practice yesterday before skating on his own today. It may be just a small item that will take a little time.

 

[ColePens]

Spent the day with my phone down and family time for the bday. Can anyone give me a short run down of the scrimmage? I truly appreciate it.

 

[ChrisKuuuunitz]

Spent the day with my phone down and family time for the bday. Can anyone give me a short run down of the scrimmage? I truly appreciate it.

I just watched the highlights real fast.

Tanev had a nice individual effort goal against Ruh first goal

Anthony Angelo had a meh goal against MM on a 3 on 1 turnover from Letang

POJ to Zucker to Hornqvist tip in was third goal

Rikola put Blueger on his ass in front of the net, and Blueger didn't like it, so he broke his stick over his arm lmao

Rusty picked up a turnover on the fly and had a nice backhand goal

Marleau nice snipe from Mcann and Letang

That Hornqvist guy scored again, he's pretty good

And Letang had a nice shot from Geno at the end of the game to score

Sid is dead and never coming back.

 

[Peat]

Spent the day with my phone down and family time for the bday. Can anyone give me a short run down of the scrimmage? I truly appreciate it.

To add to the above -

Few cases of temper flaring - they want real games

ZMR generated a lot of chances

Both goalies stoned a lot of good chances

Not a lot to be concerned about other than no Sid and more Letang giveaways than is entirely right

Poulin looked really good and looks like Sully might have rewarded him with some Geno-Rust time

I remained unnerved about how much easier this seems for Marino than for everyone else

 

[66-30-33]

Say Pens lose to Habs, does the draft get redone with everyone at equal chance or does it still go by standings with the remaining teams meaning we will be like 10-15th?

 

[Gurglesons]

Say Pens lose to Habs, does the draft get redone with everyone at equal chance or does it still go by standings with the remaining teams meaning we will be like 10-15th?

All the teams in the qualifying round get a 12% chance at the 1st overall.

 

[mpp9]

To add to the above -

Few cases of temper flaring - they want real games

ZMR generated a lot of chances

Both goalies stoned a lot of good chances

Not a lot to be concerned about other than no Sid and more Letang giveaways than is entirely right

Poulin looked really good and looks like Sully might have rewarded him with some Geno-Rust time

I remained unnerved about how much easier this seems for Marino than for everyone else

So what are the rules with keeping players on the roster for this postseason run. Poulin is here to stay for as long as we want him?

He'd be a real nice wild card if he could play a legit role.

 

[ETA]

All the teams in the qualifying round get a 12% chance at the 1st overall.

12.5% (1 in 8)

 

[TKalltheTime]

Getting more and more concerned that Sid’s “issue” is more serious than anyone wants to admit and that instead of Sully loading up Malkin’s line to have the best chance to score, he’ll still try to “balance” the lines, resulting in a neutered scoring ability.

Tight checking, 1 goal games are what the Habs want and it just may be what they get...

Lol, this is all so incredibly stupid!

 

[EightyOne]

Lol, this is all so incredibly stupid!

The part about Sid's injury being really limiting, might not be all that stupid, though.

 

[Peat]

So what are the rules with keeping players on the roster for this postseason run. Poulin is here to stay for as long as we want him?

He'd be a real nice wild card if he could play a legit role.

The 34 man roster needs to be trimmed to 31 for going to Toronto. If Poulin is on that roster, he's there all pre-season, although I believe we can swap guys.

D'Orio is definitely one of the cuts. The remaining two, I don't know. POJ might be one. So you've got one or two forwards. I'd cut Varone and Miletec, or just Miletec, but we'll see.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Getting more and more concerned that Sid’s “issue” is more serious than anyone wants to admit and that instead of Sully loading up Malkin’s line to have the best chance to score, he’ll still try to “balance” the lines, resulting in a neutered scoring ability.

Tight checking, 1 goal games are what the Habs want and it just may be what they get...

I am definitely concerned about Sid's injury. My biggest concern is that it is the same injury from the surgery. I thought Sid reinjured his sports hernia after the surgery at some point. He didn't seem the same. I had hope that with the extra months off that it would heal. I want be surprised at all if he needs surgery again after the playoffs and misses the first half of next season. I hope I am wrong but that was the first thing I thought of when Did left the scrimmage.

As far as loading up if Crosby was out I don't think it would matter. Pens are not winning the Cup if Crosby or Malkin is out. Plus Zucker and Rust is loading up and gives Malkin one of his best set of wingers ever. Pens would instantly go from two 1st lines and two 3rd lines and possibly the best forwards in the NHL to having a 2nd line below average no matter what you do with Guentzel. Guentzel with Malkin then Zucker with ???? If Crosby is playing with a reinjured sports hernia this team is done as far as winning 5 rounds. I just hope it is really just a minor injury but after listing Crosby with a minor concession for two halves of seasons I don't trust anything I hear from Pens on injuries.