Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Freeptop]

There was an article on the Athletic where scouts and executives were asked to rank Celebrini vs the previous 9 years of number one overall picks, and one part in the analysis of Celebrini really stuck out to me:

One executive who ranked him a bit lower worries a bit about his upside. “I think he has more skill and offense than Matty Beniers does, but I view him as that type of player. I think he’s going to score, he’ll have 60, 70, 75 point seasons in the NHL, but I don’t think he’s going to be an elite offensive producer.”

How does Macklin Celebrini compare to recent No. 1 NHL Draft picks? Scouts, execs weigh in

We asked six NHL scouts and executives to rank the last nine No. 1 picks in the NHL Draft and this year's projected No. 1 pick, Celebrini.

theathletic.com

Celebrini was ranked 5 out of 10, incidentally.

It was interesting perspective, because on these boards, there seems to be a belief that 50-60 point players are third-liners, at best.

It also really shows how Guentzel really is an elite player. I kind of wish we could hire back the scout who found Guentzel as an Assistant GM, or at least director of amateur scouting!

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This was definitely not the draft to hang onto the pick and leave next year's without lotto protection.

 

[Gurglesons]

There was an article on the Athletic where scouts and executives were asked to rank Celebrini vs the previous 9 years of number one overall picks, and one part in the analysis of Celebrini really stuck out to me:

How does Macklin Celebrini compare to recent No. 1 NHL Draft picks? Scouts, execs weigh in

We asked six NHL scouts and executives to rank the last nine No. 1 picks in the NHL Draft and this year's projected No. 1 pick, Celebrini.

theathletic.com

Celebrini was ranked 5 out of 10, incidentally.

It was interesting perspective, because on these boards, there seems to be a belief that 50-60 point players are third-liners, at best.

It also really shows how Guentzel really is an elite player. I kind of wish we could hire back the scout who found Guentzel as an Assistant GM, or at least director of amateur scouting!

Seems really weird to profile Celebrini that way versus Beniers. Celebrini scored more goals than Beniers had points as a freshman.

 

[BobCole]

Any predictions on the AAV of the anticipated Crosby extension? I've heard numbers in the 10-11 range. Obviously you pay him what he wants. I just somehow suspect that he'll come in lower.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Any predictions on the AAV of the anticipated Crosby extension? I've heard numbers in the 10-11 range. Obviously you pay him what he wants. I just somehow suspect that he'll come in lower.

I'm believing it's $8.7 million until they announce it's not $8.7 million.

 

[SEALBound]

I'm believing it's $8.7 million until they announce it's not $8.7 million.

Yeah, I'm not completely buying the $10.5mil number that was thrown out there. Especially when Geno and Letang took less. Sid is certainly worth more but has been his entire life. If he's extending, he's wanting to compete. He best helps by signing a team-friendly deal the way he always has.

Defensive 20-30 pt defensemen don't return 1sts that have Marcus Pettersson physical ability.

I would tend to agree but it's not too often a guy like MP would be available. I imagine they wouldn't go for picks, they would go for a young high-end forward.

 

[Gurglesons]

I would tend to agree but it's not too often a guy like MP would be available. I imagine they wouldn't go for picks, they would go for a young high-end forward.

Every team has a Marcus Pettersson.

 

[Pancakes]

Defensive 20-30 pt defensemen don't return 1sts that have Marcus Pettersson physical ability.

Worse players than him have returned firsts.

This was definitely not the draft to hang onto the pick and leave next year's without lotto protection.

I wonder if they'd keep it if they jumped up to #4. I suspect they would.

With a 1.5% chance of that happening it's prob not something to worry about though unless Uncle Gary is gonna cold envelope this one for us

 

[Empoleon8771]

There is no way they wouldn't keep the 1st this year if they won the lottery. Even with my concerns about regression for next year, they'd have to fall off pretty hard to even realistically be looking at a top-5 pick next year. The 4 worst teams in the NHL finished with 66 or fewer points, the Penguins are absolutely not going to fall off to that level.

If they win the lottery and move up to #4, you absolutely keep that pick and give up the pick next year. Even if that pick ends up at like #8, I'd have a really hard time even caring about giving up that high of a pick in the EK trade.

 

[Rakell67]

Every team has a Marcus Pettersson.

But not every team has a Sully.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Worse players than him have returned firsts.


I wonder if they'd keep it if they jumped up to #4. I suspect they would.

With a 1.5% chance of that happening it's prob not something to worry about though unless Uncle Gary is gonna cold envelope this one for us

Probably. They're too stupid and arrogant to admit there's a distinct possibility the team's as bad or worse next year.

They need to be saved from themselves. Don't gamble with next year's not having lotto protection; SJ is getting a good pick either way.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Probably. They're too stupid and arrogant to admit there's a distinct possibility the team's as bad or worse next year.

They need to be saved from themselves. Don't gamble with next year's not having lotto protection; SJ is getting a good pick either way.

This team is flat out not going to be in a position to be picking #4 or higher next year. The 4th worst team in hockey this year finished with 66 points.

If this team lucks into the #4 pick this year, they'd be insane to give it up. They'd look like downright morons for giving up the #4 pick this year only for the pick to end up later next year, and it's pretty much a guarantee that the pick next year wouldn't be #4 or better.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This team is flat out not going to be in a position to be picking #4 or higher next year. The 4th worst team in hockey this year finished with 66 points.

If my scouts thought highly enough to gamble with next year's pick, sure.

But to pretend this team cannot finish as poorly or worse than this season is pretty silly. They're a lengthy Sid injury away from finishing right around the bottom 5. Hell, they were a hot run from Ned away from being close to that this year and Sid was healthy and very productive given his age.

-edit- Another season of Sully hockey. Reirden maybe sticking around. Jarry still pinned as this team's guy. Jake's production/chemistry removed from the lineup and (likely) poorly replaced. I think short of leaping up the draft board, it's an easy punt.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If my scouts thought highly enough to gamble with next year's pick, sure.

But to pretend this team cannot finish as poorly or worse than this season is pretty silly. They're a lengthy Sid injury away from finishing right around the bottom 5. Hell, they were a hot run from Ned away from being close to that this year and Sid was healthy and very productive given his age.

The only way this team is picking #4 or better next year would be:

1. Finishing as a bottom-3 team in the NHL
2. Winning a draft lottery with <15% odds

It's an absolute no brainer to gamble with next year's pick and keep the #4. Even with keeping regression in mind, it is wildly unlikely that they're finishing with a higher pick next year. This isn't even judging the Penguins as a team, it's looking purely at probability.

If the Penguins regress to 75 points next year (which would be a massive drop-off), they're still only the 5th worst team in the NHL and have a 82.7% of picking #5 or later. This team would have to have a serious chance of putting up 65 or fewer points next year to even begin rationalizing giving up the #4 pick this year. The Jackets were the 4th worst team in the NHL this year with 66 points and they still have a 65% chance of picking 5th or later.

 

[Gurglesons]

Worse players than him have returned firsts.

Usually because of physicality and size.

 

[Empoleon8771]

-edit- Another season of Sully hockey. Reirden maybe sticking around. Jarry still pinned as this team's guy. Jake's production/chemistry removed from the lineup and (likely) poorly replaced. I think short of leaping up the draft board, it's an easy punt.

Well yeah, giving up #14 in this draft is a no brainer if it falls at #14, because there is a real chance that their 1st next year is higher than #14. Now a debate to be had is how much higher is it at risk of ending up, where you can say "maybe #14 this year is better than #10 next year". But to me, there is no real argument for keeping #14.

But #4? There is simply no argument for not keeping #4, simply because it's super unlikely this team is picking #4 or better this year. That's not even really because of the team, that's because of the draft lottery.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The only way this team is picking #4 or better next year would be:

1. Finishing as a bottom-3 team in the NHL
2. Winning a draft lottery with <15% odds

It's an absolute no brainer to gamble with next year's pick and keep the #4. Even with keeping regression in mind, it is wildly unlikely that they're finishing with a higher pick next year. This isn't even judging the Penguins as a team, it's looking purely at probability.

If the Penguins regress to 75 points next year (which would be a massive drop-off), they're still only the 5th worst team in the NHL and have a 82.7% of picking #5 or later.

You don't think next year's team has any chance to lose seven more games (88pts to 75pts) than this year's? With Sully and Reirden still around, Jake missing for a full season, and Sid being another year older? No chance?

I mean, I'm just sayin'. People seem to not think of the Pens as a team that hasn't won a playoff round since 2018, and has now missed the playoffs twice in a row. This ain't a good team. One or two things going wrong, like Sid regressing or getting hurt, and this team's plummeting imo.

Well yeah, giving up #14 in this draft is a no brainer if it falls at #14, because there is a real chance that their 1st next year is higher than #14. Now a debate to be had is how much higher is it at risk of ending up, where you can say "maybe #14 this year is better than #10 next year". But to me, there is no real argument for keeping #14.

But #4? There is simply no argument for not keeping #4, simply because it's super unlikely this team is picking #4 or better this year. That's not even really because of the team, that's because of the draft lottery.

I think it depends on how scouts view guys in the ~4 range versus the top-7 or so guys next draft. There's been talk about this draft where it's basically Celebrini and then a whole buncha guys who are decent enough but not really regarded as what you'd consider sure-fire top-5 picks.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You don't think next year's team has any chance to lose seven more games (88pts to 75pts) than this year's? With Sully and Reirden still around, Jake missing for a full season, and Sid being another year older? No chance?

I mean, I'm just sayin'. People seem to not think of the Pens as a team that hasn't won a playoff round since 2018, and has now missed the playoffs twice in a row. This ain't a good team. One or two things going wrong, like Sid regressing or getting hurt, and this team's plummeting imo.

Even if they magically do that somehow, they still have a 83% chance of picking #5 or later. I think it's a silly suggestion to even pretend it's likely, but even if it is, it's still by most likely that the pick won't end up #4 or better.

I think you really need to go look at what other teams actually are when you say "this ain't a good team". There is a very big difference between "not winning a playoff round since 2018 and missing the playoffs 2 years in a row" and the floor you're suggesting is entirely possible for this team.

 

[Gurglesons]

Even if they magically do that somehow, they still have a 83% chance of picking #5 or later. I think it's a silly suggestion to even pretend it's likely, but even if it is, it's still by most likely that the pick won't end up #4 or better.

I think you really need to go look at what other teams actually are when you say "this ain't a good team". There is a very big difference between "not winning a playoff round since 2018 and missing the playoffs 2 years in a row" and the floor you're suggesting is entirely possible for this team.

We haven't been a playoff team while being relatively healthy.

If Sid / Malkin / Letang go down for 50+ games. I think this team could easily drop.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Here's the best way I can put that: people say the Penguins aren't a good team because "they haven't won a round since 2018 and have missed the playoffs in the last 2 years". Want to know what other teams have done?

• Buffalo: has not made the playoffs since 2010-2011
• Detroit: has not made the playoffs since 2015-2016
• Chicago: has not made a legitimate playoff series (so taking out the COVID expanded playoffs) since 2016-2017 and are still in the early stages of their rebuild
• San Jose: has not made the playoffs since 2018-2019 and are still in the early stages of their rebuild
• Anaheim: has not made the playoffs since 2017-2018

People really need to have some perspective when talking about how "bad" this team is. This team is not bad, they're painfully mediocre. Go tell a Sabres fan about how this team is so bad because "they haven't won a round since 2018 and have missed the playoffs in the last 2 years", they'd laugh in your face.

This team is by far most likely to be a mediocre borderline playoff team for as long as Crosby is here. Them dropping 15 points in the standings to become a bottom-5 team is just as likely as them jumping 15 points in the standings to go back to being a top-10 team in the NHL. Aka: neither of them are likely.

We haven't been a playoff team while being relatively healthy.

If Sid / Malkin / Letang go down for 50+ games. I think this team could easily drop.

I don't see Malkin or Letang as nearly good enough for them being out to drop them to that degree.

Crosby, sure.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Even if they magically do that somehow, they still have a 83% chance of picking #5 or later. I think it's a silly suggestion to even pretend it's likely, but even if it is, it's still by most likely that the pick won't end up #4 or better.

I think you really need to go look at what other teams actually are when you say "this ain't a good team". There is a very big difference between "not winning a playoff round since 2018 and missing the playoffs 2 years in a row" and the floor you're suggesting is entirely possible for this team.

There really isn't. The difference between this team constantly fighting for its life to remain in the WC discussion versus a perennial bottom feeder is that this team's not making a lick of progress toward building back up to competing by collecting potential franchise altering prospects.

People can try to convince themselves that it's gonna get much worse but they're already losers, they're just not getting anything for being losers because of their unwillingness to face reality.

I'm a Bills fan. Spare me the "Pens fans are so spoiled, it can get *so much worse*" crap. This team's constant middling while refusing to pick a direction and commit to it (all the while steadily declining anyway) is as bad or worse than watching a team like the Bills fail to make the playoffs for two decades.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There really isn't. The difference between this team constantly fighting for its life to remain in the WC discussion versus a perennial bottom feeder is that this team's not making a lick of progress toward building back up to competing by collecting potential franchise altering prospects.

People can try to convince themselves that it's gonna get much worse but they're already losers, they're just not getting anything for being losers because of their unwillingness to face reality.

I'm a Bills fan. Spare me the "Pens fans are so spoiled, it can get *so much worse*" crap. This team's constant middling while refusing to pick a direction and commit to it (all the while steadily declining anyway) is as bad or worse than watching a team like the Bills fail to make the playoffs for two decades.

That's nonsense and has nothing to do with this discussion. This discussion is not about what this team should be doing and how they should or shouldn't be rebuilding, it's talking about this team relative to other teams in the NHL.

The point of that post is not "Penguins fans are spoiled". It's "Penguins fans have no idea what an actual bad team looks like". And the fact that you are saying "there is no difference between the Penguins and the actual bad teams in the NHL" just reinforces that. This really just seems like you don't understand how truly bad NHL teams can get if you think the Penguins are even close to the worst teams in the NHL.

The Blue Jackets were the 4th worst team and finished with 66 points last year. The difference between them and the Penguins (88 points) is the same as the difference between the Penguins and the Panthers (110 points). For the 3 teams worse than the Jackets (Ducks, Blackhawks and Sharks), they are further behind the Penguins in points than any team in the NHL is above the Penguins in points.

As an aside, I find it really weird people on here dunk on people for being optimistic and thinking this team can build back up into being a contender (which I don't believe unless they get insanely lucky with some draft picks), while simultaneously believing that an equally large fall in the other direction is possible and arguably likely.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

This team's a whole hell of a lot closer to being a bottom feeder than it is to being a team in legit position to compete for a Cup or make a deep run.

This was the 7th worst team in the league as recently as March 24th before an improbable ~10 game run outta nowhere.

 

[MrBrightside]

As an aside, I find it really weird people on here dunk on people for being optimistic and thinking this team can build back up into being a contender (which I don't believe unless they get insanely lucky with some draft picks), while simultaneously believing that an equally large fall in the other direction is possible and arguably likely.

You mean that the "sell everyone" crowd on a message board wouldn't just avoid what's happened in Detroit and Buffalo and Arizona and Columbus and wouldn't just immediately turn this team into a contender?

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't see Malkin or Letang as nearly good enough for them being out to drop them to that degree.

Crosby, sure.

Removing Malkin's goal production this year puts us in the bottom 10 for goal for.

Our RHD depth is awful if either of EK65 or Letang gets hurt.