Confirmed with Link: Penguins sign Ryan Graves: 6 years, $4.5m AAV

[Turin]

Just looking at other Pens dmen this past season, not a single one was deployed like Graves was in NJ - in fact I don't think a single defenseman broke the 80 percentile wrt competition faced.

 

[Gurglesons]

Interesting card. Directly contradicts some of the others (on the penalty kill). That data point on recoveries looks very aberrant.

The things that catches my eye though is

a) decent zone exits and zone entries
b) outstanding zone denial

Those are the traits Pittsburgh dmen need. If he can regain dump ins and get it out of danger, he'll do well.

Their model seems incredibly off a lot.

 

[Zbynek]

I've spent the past few days pretty much moping about Jarry exclusively, but this is one of 2 Dubas moves (this and the Reilly Smith trade) that I absolutely love. Copying my reaction from the UFA thread:

Despite the soul crushing Jarry news I am pretty pumped to see Graves my top target on D this year come at a cap hit of 4.5 mil. Devils are my next watched team after the Pens and I've seen a good bit of Graves since he came over from Colorado.

The Devils used Graves most as a PK specialist and go-to shutdown minute eater. His shutdown line with Marino was solid for NJD at 5v5 versus top lines and also on the PK. They finished 4th in the NHL in the PK this year and Graves and Marino led the charge.

For a defensive minded d-man, Grave has decent hockey IQ, and decent puck-moving skills. For a big guy he has decent speed. There's nothing he does that is particularly bad. For his size he's surprisingly versatile in these areas.

Then you have the areas he does really well. His shutdown game and best of all the kid knows how to use his size without being a liability. His athleticism will be such a far cry from Dumo's last year and a half as a pylon. It will be amazing to see that upgrade.

He's not going to start the breakout for the Pens though we don't need him to. But if the idea is to stick him to Letang and PK, he will be great there. He sheltered Hamilton in his first year with the Devils so he can do that. I don't consider him offensively minded, but not lacking either, he's not afraid to get in the mix and shoot the puck. He started shooting the puck a lot more after getting paired with Marino. Gut feeling is he will work nicely with Letang.

There are also people thinking this contract will age badly. Yea no, not buying it. Graves was still developing when he got to the Devils. For the amount of games he has been in the NHL I thought he was still like 26, not 28. Not that it makes much difference, playing til 34 won't be an issue for this guy. He doesn't play a Brooks Orpik bruiser type of games and no major injuries in his career. Just 300 games under his belt. We are getting him at his prime.

 

[Ulf5]

Contract is a steal if he proves capable of top 4 minutes. Especially when the cap sky rockets.

 

[Captain Hook]

I like the move. I was surprised we got him since it didn't sound like Dubas was interested in giving long term to UFA's but he made an exception for this guy.

Swapping out a D-Man in Dumo that's on the wrong side of 30 for a guy under 30 is the type of move to get younger that I thought and hoped we see more of in UFA. That didn't really happen but it's tough to do since a lot of the younger UFA guys get term. Most of our other needs were bottom 6 forwards and you usually don't want to give more than a couple years to bottom 6 guys. I guess the fact Graves is a top 4 D-man was why Dubas made that exception and went 6 years. Hopefully it works out.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Yeah, who gives a shit about year 5 or 6 on this deal. The cap ceiling will be near $95m around then. And I'm assuming there will still be a market for a giant defenseman in their mid 30s.

Anyway, there's been talk about player cards:

Most recent season:

Year before:

I don't think these take into account linemates/partners but they probably should.

 

[eXile3]

My guess is three years before the contract looks awful. That seems to be our time horizon to competitive, or at least what the team sees as it as.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Does he have an absolute howitzer for a shot or no? I always thought he did, some clips on YouTube looks like he does. But have seen some on main boards say it’s not a strength.

 

[wej20]

My guess is three years before the contract looks awful. That seems to be our time horizon to competitive, or at least what the team sees as it as.

I wouldn't expect the wheels to fall off 3 years in, he'll only be in his early 30s.

 

[Bowski]

Yes, this is true thread necromancy. But this is pure garbage so far.
5 more years!

 

[66-30-33]

I think a new coach and we see a different Graves. Nobody can play under Sullivan.

 

[TNT87]

I didn't make a comment originally but at the time I thought this was a really good signing. I was gravely wrong. He's been atrocious from the very first game. I would be happy if he can just be at least average next season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Thought he was gonna be a decent add. Dude sucks. Has all the physical tools to succeed but he's about as dumb as Kapanen on the ice--and that's f***ing stupid.

 

[Gurglesons]

I didn't make a comment originally but at the time I thought this was a really good signing. I was gravely wrong. He's been atrocious from the very first game. I would be happy if he can just be at least average next season.

Here is what I said...

Graves is slow and defensively suspect.

He's going to be a Dumo level issue by December.

I hate it. LOL. I already DM'D Steve.

Marino is light years better than Graves.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I have a hard time looking at today's prioritized signings as anything but what Sullivan expressly wanted for the team.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I didn't make a comment originally but at the time I thought this was a really good signing. I was gravely wrong. He's been atrocious from the very first game. I would be happy if he can just be at least average next season.

Love the pun!

But I've seen pee wee player with better on ice awareness than Graves. He is absolutely brutal
I would take last year's version of Dumo over this piece of trash

 

[JTG]

Yeah, I thought his size would be good with Letang. Totally wrong. He's not good here.

I'd rather have Marino and Matheson 10/10 times and we would have been in way better financial shape with them.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah, I thought his size would be good with Letang. Totally wrong. He's not good here.

I'd rather have Marino and Matheson 10/10 times and we would have been in way better financial shape with them.

Marino is worse than Graves this year.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I was wrong.

Player cards looked good
Playing with the Devils looked good.

4.5 mill felt like a steal even if he was a low end 4 with what defensemen make now.

My only thing I wonder is Karlsson and Graves are new editions to the D corps and both look bad.
Graves made a comment about the system is hard. Is this coaching or do they both play this poorly?

Time will tell.

 

[Liberty Biberty]

I saw the signing of a "big guy who doesnt play like it, but also isnt that offensively gifted" and just assumed we got a younger Dumo replacement.

 

[Fatty McLardy]

everyone coming into to this "system" looks like dogshit - we could somehow get Cale Makar and Sullivan's system would make him look like a liability.

 

[HandshakeLine]

everyone coming into to this "system" looks like dogshit - we could somehow get Cale Makar and Sullivan's system would make him look like a liability.

Must be the players' fault.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I was wrong.

Player cards looked good
Playing with the Devils looked good.

4.5 mill felt like a steal even if he was a low end 4 with what defensemen make now.

My only thing I wonder is Karlsson and Graves are new editions to the D corps and both look bad.
Graves made a comment about the system is hard. Is this coaching or do they both play this poorly?

Time will tell.

This is the problem in general with looking at player cards when they're with another team and just assuming that'll translate over to the new team.

That's the problem with analytics in general that focus on what a player does "when on the ice" that doesn't take into account how much of what happened was due specifically to him versus the other 4 players he was on the ice with.

Obviously more nuance to it, but in simplistic terms it's like seeing a player's +/- rating on one team and then drawing conclusions about how he'll do on a new team. Too much that wasn't even that player's doing went into that rating to say "this is how he'll perform with our team".

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Just one in a long line of players who looked good before and/or after joining Sully's Pens.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

This is the problem in general with looking at player cards when they're with another team and just assuming that'll translate over to the new team.

That's the problem with analytics in general that focus on what a player does "when on the ice" that doesn't take into account how much of what happened was due specifically to him versus the other 4 players he was on the ice with.

Obviously more nuance to it, but in simplistic terms it's like seeing a player's +/- rating on one team and then drawing conclusions about how he'll do on a new team. Too much that wasn't even that player's doing went into that rating to say "this is how he'll perform with our team".

I personally do not only look at only cards.

I just don't get get it. I thought he'd be a solid fit and was really glad with this signing. If another team is interested in him I'd gladly trade him away and just for that other team be a ufa signing but at 5 years left not 6.

I won't be surprised if we have him next year though.