Prospect Info: Patrick vs Nico II: Tragic for Patrick or Torpedo for Nico?

[Emperoreddy]

vs

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[Lou is God]

http://forum.canucks.com/topic/3801...iled-analysis-nico-hischier-vs-nolan-patrick/

Here's a great comparison of both players. Even the last paragraph showing how similar Schenn(!!) and Patrick are statistically in junior. But yeah, Patrick isn't comparable to Schenn at all.

This guy just talks stats when comparing the two, there are problem dozens of players over the past years who have had similar stats to Patrick and those to Schenn.

And to you that's how you judge if players are similar?

"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination" said the great Vin Scully, and that there analysis you brought to the table is dead ringer for this quote.

He also used the same old quotes from his coach you used.

 

[Unknown Caller]

More to the Patrick-Schenn comparison below.

One might argue that Patrick's 16-year-old season indicates that he is a better prospect than his peers. I dispute this claim. The most obvious comparison to Patrick as a 16-year-old is former Wheat Kings star Brayden Schenn. Patrick's production at the age of 16 has less significance when Schenn's rookie numbers were very similar. Schenn scored 28 goals, 71 points in 66 games in his rookie season. If we are to consider Nolan Patrick's 16-year-old season, we must also be aware that Brayden Schenn posted very similar number with less talent to work with. He was projected to be a first-line, two-way center at the NHL level.

 

[Unknown Caller]

This guy just talks stats when comparing the two, there are problem dozens of players over the past years who have had similar stats to Patrick and those to Schenn.

"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination" said the great Vin Scully, and that goes analysis is dead ringer for this quote.

He also used the same old quotes from his coach you used.

Yes, one quote in which the coach compares them in terms of production and not just "mentality." I think it's acceptable to say that it was fair for the previous poster to compare the two without being attacked.

 

[Lou is God]

More to the Patrick-Schenn comparison below.

"Production" is the key word here, isn't it? Not style or valid comparisons minus numbers.

 

[Lou is God]

Yes, one quote in which the coach compares them in terms of production and not just "mentality." I think it's acceptable to say that it was fair for the previous poster to compare the two without being attacked.

Not even if he's going to 1) mislead what the coach was saying 2) or show proper context of the comparison. And I didn't attack him, I attacked his opinion.

 

[Blender]

That post is very biased, to the point where it can't be taken seriously as an objective analysis. It's pretty clear from reading it that he think Hischier is clearly the better prospect, and went hunting for statistics and reasoning to justify his position.

 

[Lou is God]

That post is very biased, to the point where it can't be taken seriously as an objective analysis. It's pretty clear from reading it that he think Hischier is clearly the better prospect, and went hunting for statistics and reasoning to justify his position.

I didn't want to say it but since you brought it up, the writer of that post came across as having an agenda than giving an unbiased analysis. He's obviously in the pro-Nico camp.

 

[Tundra]

The earmarks of a special player. A player that can master the game cerebrally at this precocious age.

Last season, Hischier got a taste of the professional game, suiting up in 15 games for Bern HC in Switzerland. He scored one goal.

Guy Boucher, the Bern coach at the time, searched game tape meticulously to find mistakes to point out to Hischier to help teach the young forward. Boucher was unable to find much footage of the teenager out of position or making a wrong play.

“He manages the game like an adult, like a man,” said Boucher, now the coach of the Ottawa Senators. “Great vision, great poise, but he’s always in the right place defensively too, which puts him ahead of a lot of young guys — they rarely have both sides of the ice figured out, especially at that age.”

 

[VoidCreature]

Expect a comprehensive scouting package soon, much like the one I did about Nolan Patrick.

Among the games featured is the one played on February 16, 2017 against the Sarnia Sting. Here is one shift that I've uploaded from that game as a preview of my upcoming package:

I'm pretty sure this is him. He was posting exhaustively in the Nico thread most of the year, linking in those videos. He seems to be a Nucks fan. He hasn't posted about Nico since the draft lottery.

In fact...

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/search.php?searchid=47029305

5/2/2017 9:51 AM, 2017 NHL Draft - Part V, Canucks Board, Post #910

Due to the results of the 2017 Draft Lottery, I have decided to postpone the completion of my Nico Hischier scouting package until a future date.

I am currently at work on a scouting package focused on Gabriel Vilardi.

I can't directly quote it since the thread is locked, but clearly he had selfish reasons for hyping Hischier.

That article is full of so much Texas sharpshooter fallacy it's hard to fathom.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Certainly some high praise from Boucher, point for team Nico!

 

[Tundra]

Taken from the draft subforum:

Being from Halifax, and watching the QMJHL for the last two decades, I will throw in my two cents.

1- Stop comparing Mackinnon and Drouins numbers to Nico's....That Memorial Cup Moosehead team might have been on of the best Junior hockey teams I have personally watched during my ENTIRE viewership of the league. That squad had 8 20+ Goal scorers.....5 had 30+. My dead grandmother could have padded her stats on that team sleeping on the checking line.....

Nico is literally playing on the basement team, carrying a bunch of rookies who are no where close to his level.

2- Point totals are going down in the leagues, whether it is the NHL/CHL you know it. Even trying to compare points from 3-4 seasons ago are inflated compared to the outcomes now. People think Patrick/Nico may have 70-75 point potential, yet Ovie and Matthews only had 69 this year.....only one player had over 90....If either of these kids hits 70, they will easily be better than Mackinnon/Barkov/Drouin/RNH/ect in regards to recent drafts.

3- Who will have more points over their career (Nico/Patrick)? I would say whoever Philly gets of those two.....That kid will be set up with the best future D core in the entire league, and probably the most under-rated prospected I think I have witnessed over the last 5 years or so in Oscar Lindblom. Ohhh....not to mention Giroux, Simmonds, Voracek, Schenn and Konecny.....Now when I think about it.....God damn what a hockey team that will be.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I'm pretty sure this is him. He was posting exhaustively in the Nico thread most of the year, linking in those videos. He seems to be a Nucks fan. He hasn't posted about Nico since the draft lottery.

In fact...

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/search.php?searchid=47029305



I can't directly quote it since the thread is locked, but clearly he had selfish reasons for hyping Hischier.

That article is full of so much Texas sharpshooter fallacy it's hard to fathom.

Texas sharpshooter fallacy reminds me of a few people on this board.

 

[NJDevs26]

More to the Patrick-Schenn comparison below.

lol that reminds me of the goofy Adam Larsson comp - I think it was Sami Salo?

 

[Lou is God]

Texas sharpshooter fallacy reminds me of a few people on this board.

People throwing in any good word on Nico to make his case.

 

[NJDevs26]

People throwing in any good word on Nico to make his case.

Well at least Guy Boucher isn't a nobody blogger and I respect his view. But like someone in the other thread said, passing on Patrick for Hischler comes off as passing on a full house to try to get four in a row, or hitting on 20 to try to get the Ace for 21. We have a sure center on the one hand and a maybe C/maybe W on the other. They're both talented players, I'd rather have the pure center who solves so many of our problems. Especially when there's a little suspicion over the other guy's overnight rise. Sure he could be a Laine but he could be like other sudden risers that go splat later on.

 

[Lou is God]

Well at least Guy Boucher isn't a nobody blogger and I respect his view. But like someone in the other thread said, passing on Patrick for Hischler comes off as passing on a full house to try to get four in a row, or hitting on 20 to try to get the Ace for 21. We have a sure center on the one hand and a maybe C/maybe W on the other. They're both talented players, I'd rather have the pure center who solves so many of our problems. Especially when there's a little suspicion over the other guy's overnight rise. Sure he could be a Laine but he could be like other sudden risers that go splat later on.

As excited as I am at the prospects of Patrick being in a Devils uniform, I dread seeing Nico in a Flyers uniform.

 

[Emperoreddy]

As excited as I am at the prospects of Patrick being in a Devils uniform, I dread seeing Nico in a Flyers uniform.

I think I dread Patrick in a Flyers jersey more.

 

[NJDevs26]

As excited as I am at the prospects of Patrick being in a Devils uniform, I dread seeing Nico in a Flyers uniform.

I think from the negative standpoint I more fear letting them have the guy who's been the #1 prospect all along and getting dud magic beans.

 

[Triumph]

I hate comparables when it comes to this sort of thing. Players aren't reincarnations of one another. You can use player comparables to give a vague idea of the sort of player you're dealing with, but that's as far as it goes.

 

[Lou is God]

I think I dread Patrick in a Flyers jersey more.

Oh hell yeah, that goes without saying.

 

[Blender]

I didn't want to say it but since you brought it up, the writer of that post came across as having an agenda than giving an unbiased analysis. He's obviously in the pro-Nico camp.

I actually got a chuckle out of the constant use of "Patrick plays for last years WHL champion" while I didn't once see a mention that they were 15th this season and no longer a powerhouse. Halifax also finished 15th this season, but I definitely think they are a bit of a weaker team. That said, the WHL is generally considered to be superior to the QMJHL. He says "2015-2016 might as well be Patrick's draft year" because he missed the cut off by a couple of days (he was born on September 19) and says Hischier is a younger player, but doesn't mention he's only 77 days younger than Patrick. Two and a half months is not exactly a huge gap in age. I can go on and on, it's a terrible written post that should never be taken seriously as an objective analysis.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I think from the negative standpoint I more fear letting them have the guy who's been the #1 prospect all along and getting dud magic beans.

Or the glass half full look, our magic beans turn out to be real and Patrick remains injury prone hardly playing any and every season.

If only the Stars won 2nd, much less stressful. Though I guess beggers can't be choosers.

 

[Tundra]

I want the best player, whether it's Patrick or Hischier. But my eyes and my brain tell me it's Hischier. He shouldn't be able to perform like that in the WJCs with a giant bullseye on his back. I hope I'm wrong and the devils select the right player.

 

[Blender]

I want the best player, whether it's Patrick or Hischier. But my eyes and my brain tell me it's Hischier. He shouldn't be able to perform like that in the WJCs with a giant bullseye on his back. I hope I'm wrong and the devils select the right player.

Niederreiter put up better numbers in his draft year for Switzerland than Hischier did and was one of the best player in the tournament. Niederreiter was on a worse team as well. Niederreiter had 10 points in 7 games with the next closest on the team with 5. Hischier put up 7 points in 5 games with 2 guys with 6 in 5 and 1 guy with 4 in 4 on the team.

So it's not as if that level of performance is unheard of.