overpass
Registered User
- Jun 7, 2007
- 5,274
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5 vs 4
Again, using data from 2007-08 through 2010-11.
Using the binomial approximation to a normal distribution, I calculated the z-score for each NHL player's on-ice shooting percentage over this time period, where z-score = (On-ice GF - On-Ice SOGF*LgSH%)/(Standard deviation calculated using binomial approximation)
Here are the players with the highest and lowest z-scores:
Player | GF | SOGF | On-ice shooting % | Z-score
MIKEKNUBLE | 124 | 753 | 16.5% | 3.36
ANDREIMARKOV | 134 | 825 | 16.2% | 3.32
KIMMOTIMONEN | 157 | 1012 | 15.5% | 2.97
NICKLASBACKSTROM | 173 | 1129 | 15.3% | 2.94
MIKERICHARDS | 134 | 854 | 15.7% | 2.89
CLAYTONSTONER | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.85
DANHINOTE | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.85
TJHENSICK | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.85
JONATHANTOEWS | 137 | 883 | 15.5% | 2.78
ALEXANDEROVECHKIN | 125 | 805 | 15.5% | 2.66
JOEJENSEN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
JUSTINFALK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
MATTSMABY | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
MICHAELBLUNDEN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
MIKEIGGULDEN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
TIMSESTITO | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
SEANHILL | 6 | 19 | 31.6% | 2.53
TIMSTAPLETON | 6 | 19 | 31.6% | 2.53
TIMBRENT | 10 | 39 | 25.6% | 2.50
CHRISTIANEHRHOFF | 133 | 876 | 15.2% | 2.47
TOMASHOLMSTROM | 126 | 826 | 15.3% | 2.46
ANDREWBRUNETTE | 126 | 827 | 15.2% | 2.44
RYANKESLER | 124 | 819 | 15.1% | 2.35
ALEXANDERSEMIN | 135 | 899 | 15.0% | 2.35
PATRICKKANE | 138 | 924 | 14.9% | 2.31
BRYANSMOLINSKI | 7 | 27 | 25.9% | 2.13
DENISGREBESHKOV | 47 | 284 | 16.5% | 2.10
JOFFREYLUPUL | 74 | 476 | 15.5% | 2.06
JARRETSTOLL | 108 | 723 | 14.9% | 2.04
PETRSYKORA | 76 | 493 | 15.4% | 2.01
Player | GF | SOGF | On-ice shooting % | Z-score
FRANCOISBEAUCHEMIN | 39 | 495 | 7.9% | -3.07
NICKBOYNTON | 7 | 138 | 5.1% | -2.62
IANWHITE | 45 | 508 | 8.9% | -2.44
DAVIDBOOTH | 53 | 578 | 9.2% | -2.38
BRETTLEBDA | 10 | 159 | 6.3% | -2.35
WOJTEKWOLSKI | 58 | 618 | 9.4% | -2.30
JANHLAVAC | 4 | 89 | 4.5% | -2.27
DAINIUSZUBRUS | 53 | 568 | 9.3% | -2.24
ANSSISALMELA | 4 | 87 | 4.6% | -2.21
CALO'REILLY | 7 | 120 | 5.8% | -2.19
LUCACAPUTI | 1 | 48 | 2.1% | -2.17
JASONGARRISON | 6 | 108 | 5.6% | -2.17
DEREKMEECH | 7 | 119 | 5.9% | -2.17
DERICKBRASSARD | 41 | 450 | 9.1% | -2.14
BRANDONDUBINSKY | 57 | 596 | 9.6% | -2.12
ARRONASHAM | 2 | 59 | 3.4% | -2.11
SCOTTHANNAN | 3 | 71 | 4.2% | -2.10
TORREYMITCHELL | 3 | 71 | 4.2% | -2.10
JAYBOUWMEESTER | 96 | 941 | 10.2% | -2.07
JOHN ODUYA | 29 | 332 | 8.7% | -2.04
TRAVISZAJAC | 94 | 919 | 10.2% | -2.02
FEDORTYUTIN | 89 | 874 | 10.2% | -2.02
CRAIGCONROY | 12 | 164 | 7.3% | -1.99
BENNFERRIERO | 1 | 42 | 2.4% | -1.97
SHEAWEBER | 89 | 865 | 10.3% | -1.91
MICHAELSANTORELLI | 16 | 200 | 8.0% | -1.90
VALTTERIFILPPULA | 46 | 480 | 9.6% | -1.89
NIKLASHJALMARSSON | 0 | 25 | 0.0% | -1.88
BYRONRITCHIE | 2 | 52 | 3.8% | -1.88
KRISRUSSELL | 60 | 605 | 9.9% | -1.87
There is considerably less variation in 5 vs 4 shooting percentage than in 5 vs 5 shooting percentage. We can see that, unlike in 5 vs 5 lists of top and bottom performers, some are obviously present simply because of bad luck or good luck in a very small sample.
The standard deviation of the z-scores is 1.00. This implies that the results are entirely the result of random variation! If I cut out all players who were on the ice for less than 200 shots, to focus on players who had more significant samples (making sure to recalibrate the mean and the standard deviation) I get a standard deviation of the z-scores of 1.06. That's still a very low amount of skill showing up relative to luck.
Lets look at this another way. How did the group of players who received the most power play time compare to other groups?
Players who were on the ice for:
1000+ shots: 13.2 on-ice SH%
800-1000 shots: 13.0 on-ice SH%
600-800 shots: 12.7 on-ice SH%
400-600 shots: 12.2 on-ice SH%
200-400 shots: 12.1 on-ice SH%
0-200 shots: 11.1 on-ice SH%
League average: 12.4 on-ice SH%
Now causality probably runs in both directions here to some degree. Players who are selected to play the most on the PP have the best SH% skill - but also players who are on the ice for high shooting percentages, possibly because of random variation, may be asked to play more on the power play.
Here's the group of players who were on the ice for 1000+ PP shots for:
Player | SOGF | On-ice SH%
MARTINST. LOUIS | 1292 | 12.4%
NICKLASLIDSTROM | 1241 | 14.0%
DANBOYLE | 1235 | 13.3%
ILYAKOVALCHUK | 1216 | 12.1%
MIKEGREEN | 1214 | 14.1%
JOETHORNTON | 1199 | 13.4%
EVGENIMALKIN | 1178 | 13.5%
BRADRICHARDS | 1171 | 12.6%
TOMASKABERLE | 1150 | 11.7%
DIONPHANEUF | 1141 | 12.0%
NICKLASBACKSTROM | 1129 | 15.3%
JAROMEIGINLA | 1111 | 12.7%
DANYHEATLEY | 1109 | 13.4%
HENRIKZETTERBERG | 1106 | 12.3%
PATRICKMARLEAU | 1074 | 13.5%
BRIANRAFALSKI | 1074 | 13.8%
SIDNEYCROSBY | 1072 | 13.2%
CHRISPRONGER | 1071 | 13.5%
VINCENTLECAVALIER | 1069 | 11.8%
RYANGETZLAF | 1069 | 13.6%
HENRIKSEDIN | 1069 | 13.7%
ERICSTAAL | 1054 | 13.5%
COREYPERRY | 1043 | 13.5%
LUBOMIRVISNOVSKY | 1040 | 13.5%
ANZEKOPITAR | 1033 | 11.8%
MIKERIBEIRO | 1033 | 12.1%
DANIELSEDIN | 1027 | 13.3%
TOBIASENSTROM | 1019 | 12.4%
PAVELDATSYUK | 1017 | 14.3%
KIMMOTIMONEN | 1012 | 15.5%
I think that looks more like a group of the most skilled, best PP players in the league, rather than a group of players who got lucky with their shooting percentage and got more playing time as a result. But keep in mind that the numbers posted above may be affected by selection bias to some degree.
In any case, it appears that 5 vs 4 on-ice shooting percentage includes less skill and more luck than 5 vs 5 on-ice shooting percentage - possibly because the set of players who play 5 vs 4 are selected for their skill. Keep in mind that this is not a universal truth for hockey - only for the set of NHL players who played on the PP from 2007-08 to 2010-11.
Again, using data from 2007-08 through 2010-11.
Using the binomial approximation to a normal distribution, I calculated the z-score for each NHL player's on-ice shooting percentage over this time period, where z-score = (On-ice GF - On-Ice SOGF*LgSH%)/(Standard deviation calculated using binomial approximation)
Here are the players with the highest and lowest z-scores:
MIKEKNUBLE | 124 | 753 | 16.5% | 3.36
ANDREIMARKOV | 134 | 825 | 16.2% | 3.32
KIMMOTIMONEN | 157 | 1012 | 15.5% | 2.97
NICKLASBACKSTROM | 173 | 1129 | 15.3% | 2.94
MIKERICHARDS | 134 | 854 | 15.7% | 2.89
CLAYTONSTONER | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.85
DANHINOTE | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.85
TJHENSICK | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.85
JONATHANTOEWS | 137 | 883 | 15.5% | 2.78
ALEXANDEROVECHKIN | 125 | 805 | 15.5% | 2.66
JOEJENSEN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
JUSTINFALK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
MATTSMABY | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
MICHAELBLUNDEN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
MIKEIGGULDEN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
TIMSESTITO | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.65
SEANHILL | 6 | 19 | 31.6% | 2.53
TIMSTAPLETON | 6 | 19 | 31.6% | 2.53
TIMBRENT | 10 | 39 | 25.6% | 2.50
CHRISTIANEHRHOFF | 133 | 876 | 15.2% | 2.47
TOMASHOLMSTROM | 126 | 826 | 15.3% | 2.46
ANDREWBRUNETTE | 126 | 827 | 15.2% | 2.44
RYANKESLER | 124 | 819 | 15.1% | 2.35
ALEXANDERSEMIN | 135 | 899 | 15.0% | 2.35
PATRICKKANE | 138 | 924 | 14.9% | 2.31
BRYANSMOLINSKI | 7 | 27 | 25.9% | 2.13
DENISGREBESHKOV | 47 | 284 | 16.5% | 2.10
JOFFREYLUPUL | 74 | 476 | 15.5% | 2.06
JARRETSTOLL | 108 | 723 | 14.9% | 2.04
PETRSYKORA | 76 | 493 | 15.4% | 2.01
FRANCOISBEAUCHEMIN | 39 | 495 | 7.9% | -3.07
NICKBOYNTON | 7 | 138 | 5.1% | -2.62
IANWHITE | 45 | 508 | 8.9% | -2.44
DAVIDBOOTH | 53 | 578 | 9.2% | -2.38
BRETTLEBDA | 10 | 159 | 6.3% | -2.35
WOJTEKWOLSKI | 58 | 618 | 9.4% | -2.30
JANHLAVAC | 4 | 89 | 4.5% | -2.27
DAINIUSZUBRUS | 53 | 568 | 9.3% | -2.24
ANSSISALMELA | 4 | 87 | 4.6% | -2.21
CALO'REILLY | 7 | 120 | 5.8% | -2.19
LUCACAPUTI | 1 | 48 | 2.1% | -2.17
JASONGARRISON | 6 | 108 | 5.6% | -2.17
DEREKMEECH | 7 | 119 | 5.9% | -2.17
DERICKBRASSARD | 41 | 450 | 9.1% | -2.14
BRANDONDUBINSKY | 57 | 596 | 9.6% | -2.12
ARRONASHAM | 2 | 59 | 3.4% | -2.11
SCOTTHANNAN | 3 | 71 | 4.2% | -2.10
TORREYMITCHELL | 3 | 71 | 4.2% | -2.10
JAYBOUWMEESTER | 96 | 941 | 10.2% | -2.07
JOHN ODUYA | 29 | 332 | 8.7% | -2.04
TRAVISZAJAC | 94 | 919 | 10.2% | -2.02
FEDORTYUTIN | 89 | 874 | 10.2% | -2.02
CRAIGCONROY | 12 | 164 | 7.3% | -1.99
BENNFERRIERO | 1 | 42 | 2.4% | -1.97
SHEAWEBER | 89 | 865 | 10.3% | -1.91
MICHAELSANTORELLI | 16 | 200 | 8.0% | -1.90
VALTTERIFILPPULA | 46 | 480 | 9.6% | -1.89
NIKLASHJALMARSSON | 0 | 25 | 0.0% | -1.88
BYRONRITCHIE | 2 | 52 | 3.8% | -1.88
KRISRUSSELL | 60 | 605 | 9.9% | -1.87
There is considerably less variation in 5 vs 4 shooting percentage than in 5 vs 5 shooting percentage. We can see that, unlike in 5 vs 5 lists of top and bottom performers, some are obviously present simply because of bad luck or good luck in a very small sample.
The standard deviation of the z-scores is 1.00. This implies that the results are entirely the result of random variation! If I cut out all players who were on the ice for less than 200 shots, to focus on players who had more significant samples (making sure to recalibrate the mean and the standard deviation) I get a standard deviation of the z-scores of 1.06. That's still a very low amount of skill showing up relative to luck.
Lets look at this another way. How did the group of players who received the most power play time compare to other groups?
Players who were on the ice for:
1000+ shots: 13.2 on-ice SH%
800-1000 shots: 13.0 on-ice SH%
600-800 shots: 12.7 on-ice SH%
400-600 shots: 12.2 on-ice SH%
200-400 shots: 12.1 on-ice SH%
0-200 shots: 11.1 on-ice SH%
League average: 12.4 on-ice SH%
Now causality probably runs in both directions here to some degree. Players who are selected to play the most on the PP have the best SH% skill - but also players who are on the ice for high shooting percentages, possibly because of random variation, may be asked to play more on the power play.
Here's the group of players who were on the ice for 1000+ PP shots for:
MARTINST. LOUIS | 1292 | 12.4%
NICKLASLIDSTROM | 1241 | 14.0%
DANBOYLE | 1235 | 13.3%
ILYAKOVALCHUK | 1216 | 12.1%
MIKEGREEN | 1214 | 14.1%
JOETHORNTON | 1199 | 13.4%
EVGENIMALKIN | 1178 | 13.5%
BRADRICHARDS | 1171 | 12.6%
TOMASKABERLE | 1150 | 11.7%
DIONPHANEUF | 1141 | 12.0%
NICKLASBACKSTROM | 1129 | 15.3%
JAROMEIGINLA | 1111 | 12.7%
DANYHEATLEY | 1109 | 13.4%
HENRIKZETTERBERG | 1106 | 12.3%
PATRICKMARLEAU | 1074 | 13.5%
BRIANRAFALSKI | 1074 | 13.8%
SIDNEYCROSBY | 1072 | 13.2%
CHRISPRONGER | 1071 | 13.5%
VINCENTLECAVALIER | 1069 | 11.8%
RYANGETZLAF | 1069 | 13.6%
HENRIKSEDIN | 1069 | 13.7%
ERICSTAAL | 1054 | 13.5%
COREYPERRY | 1043 | 13.5%
LUBOMIRVISNOVSKY | 1040 | 13.5%
ANZEKOPITAR | 1033 | 11.8%
MIKERIBEIRO | 1033 | 12.1%
DANIELSEDIN | 1027 | 13.3%
TOBIASENSTROM | 1019 | 12.4%
PAVELDATSYUK | 1017 | 14.3%
KIMMOTIMONEN | 1012 | 15.5%
I think that looks more like a group of the most skilled, best PP players in the league, rather than a group of players who got lucky with their shooting percentage and got more playing time as a result. But keep in mind that the numbers posted above may be affected by selection bias to some degree.
In any case, it appears that 5 vs 4 on-ice shooting percentage includes less skill and more luck than 5 vs 5 on-ice shooting percentage - possibly because the set of players who play 5 vs 4 are selected for their skill. Keep in mind that this is not a universal truth for hockey - only for the set of NHL players who played on the PP from 2007-08 to 2010-11.