OHL Trade Deadline Preview

[Brock]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/12/2017-ohl-trade-deadline-preview.html

My annual trade deadline preview. Should generate some good discussion. Willing to answer any questions (be it on my thought process or on something that wasn't mentioned in the article).

Click to read more...

 

[BaraccoliObama]

Why speculate that first round picks from this year (Dudas/Hayton/Foudy) would be moving? I thought they were basically untouchable for trades because of their no trade clauses. Wouldn't it be bad press for the team to move someone they plan on being a part of their future (and even more of their future if they're part of a package with picks) for a shorter term gain? Or is moving first rounders a lot more common than people think.

Interesting to see your thoughts about Flint's potential bait, but I agree that they won't be active this trade season. Flint may also still be a hard sell to players based on the debacle last year but things seems to be much steadier this year.

 

[digiblader]

Agreed on Trent Fox being moved by Hamilton--but I expect them to move other 96/97s as well. Team's been basically mediocre since their 7-2 start, and have been one of the weaker teams in the East since then. I just can't see them loading up, especially when Oshawa and Regina are likely to remain strong in 2018 and in the driver's seat for the Memorial Cup bid, even despite Hamilton's market size and arena.

Keep an eye on the Petes--their GM is under pressure to make a move to try to get Peterborough to the Memorial Cup, as that city badly needs a deep playoff run to keep this team afloat long term.. I believe they've got the pieces to load up at the deadline.

Fronts and 67s will be sellers.. Gennies could go either way, depending how they feel about their chances of getting the Memorial Cup in 2018.

 

[h10*]

Love the idea of Foegele for Erie. Talked about it weeks ago. If they add a top forward it will have to be an overage center and he would be one of the few I could see fitting in Erie as likely they would want a skill guy who can center Debrincat/Raddysh

I still think defense is where they are leaning. They were supposedly in Kitchener for Kitchener vs Kingston game and were rumored to be in on Desrocher but hey they could have also been looking at Foegele
Given that right now Erie has limited assets, they can probably only afford 1 legitimate move for an OA. And their offense is currently a strength that even post deadline they can probably say they have a top 3 offense. Defensively they are about average. With that in mind I think they could add more to their team in the long run by adding a guy like Desrocher than another forward.

 

[Diaero]

You have Peterborough doing absolutely nothing, which is scary accurate for a Petes fan.

Well done, sir. Interesting read.

 

[EON]

Love the idea of Foegele for Erie. Talked about it weeks ago. If they add a top forward it will have to be an overage center and he would be one of the few I could see fitting in Erie as likely they would want a skill guy who can center Debrincat/Raddysh

I still think defense is where they are leaning. They were supposedly in Kitchener for Kitchener vs Kingston game and were rumored to be in on Desrocher but hey they could have also been looking at Foegele
Given that right now Erie has limited assets, they can probably only afford 1 legitimate move for an OA. And their offense is currently a strength that even post deadline they can probably say they have a top 3 offense. Defensively they are about average. With that in mind I think they could add more to their team in the long run by adding a guy like Desrocher than another forward.

I agree that defense should be addressed before offense but calling Erie's defense average is pretty absurd when they sit at second in the league in goals against per game.

 

[sirius67fan]

Good article but Orban is a 97 not an overager, would that alter your comments?

 

[sirius67fan]

Surprised you didn't include Tyanulin. I know he's an import but he's one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, do you think there's a market?

 

[h10*]

I agree that defense should be addressed before offense but calling Erie's defense average is pretty absurd when they sit at second in the league in goals against per game.

In terms of overall talent EON I believe they are solid. They play structured and obviously well coached. Still a bit young

Too be fair I also think most defenses in the league are average or below average regardless of statistics. It's a harder group to have be elite given the league and ages of players. A good offense and goalie can give you a good defense. They could stand to improve it more with talent or some size/stay at home defender type.
Adding a top 3/4 defender with some big talent would give Erie not only the structure and depth on defense but also the talent. That along with coaching will make it a stingy D which we haven't really seen in Erie for a good number of years

 

[BarberPole9]

An excellent recap. I echo the earlier question about Tyanulin- do you think that there is a market for him?

 

[Kingpin794]

Good price for Stephens but if Saginaw keeps winning, I wonder if we sell off. We aren't short on picks IIRC so we don't really need to restock the cupboards so to speak. Idk, a weird spot to be in after such a slow start.

 

[Bra Wavers]

You have Peterborough doing absolutely nothing, which is scary accurate for a Petes fan.

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

Well done, sir. Interesting read.

Agreed......very impressive analysis. Really tough to predict with a number of teams on the fence about whether to buy or sell.

I'm hoping you didn't mention the Petes because it's hard to know who they might target and who they may be willing to deal

 

[Mayday3*]

Agreed......very impressive analysis. Really tough to predict with a number of teams on the fence about whether to buy or sell.

I'm hoping you didn't mention the Petes because it's hard to know who they might target and who they may be willing to deal

They should be targeting all the big guys and willing to deal all the young guys.... If they don't do a couple big things before the deadline then I'm at a complete loss

 

[Fischhaber]

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/12/2017-ohl-trade-deadline-preview.html

My annual trade deadline preview. Should generate some good discussion. Willing to answer any questions (be it on my thought process or on something that wasn't mentioned in the article).

Your predictions for Sault Ste. Marie are reasonable, but I don't think they will add a big forward or give up a lot of future assets. Kyle Raftis' mantra since taking over has been sustainable winning.

Obviously there are some needs that need to be addressed and you nailed it with the Oa defenseman prediction. I just think it will be a more responsible addition like DiPerna or they might include a veteran forward in a deal for a guy like Leblanc.

 

[EvenSteven]

Love the idea of Foegele for Erie. Talked about it weeks ago. If they add a top forward it will have to be an overage center and he would be one of the few I could see fitting in Erie as likely they would want a skill guy who can center Debrincat/Raddysh

I still think defense is where they are leaning. They were supposedly in Kitchener for Kitchener vs Kingston game and were rumored to be in on Desrocher but hey they could have also been looking at Foegele
Given that right now Erie has limited assets, they can probably only afford 1 legitimate move for an OA. And their offense is currently a strength that even post deadline they can probably say they have a top 3 offense. Defensively they are about average. With that in mind I think they could add more to their team in the long run by adding a guy like Desrocher than another forward.

They may have been looking at a cheaper OA d-man in the Kit/King game. Desrochers will likely be the priciest OA d-man moved at the deadline. Maybe Erie deals for a guy like DiPerna instead to fill the OA spot. He plays very well at both ends of the ice and is currently having the best year of his OHL career. He would be a big addition to a team with championship aspirations. He'd likely come at half the price of a Desrochers but still solidify the Otter blueline.

Brock has Desrochers going to the Soo for a 1999 d-man (DeMeo), two thirds and a 4th. Erie could probably get a deal done for DiPerna for either the two thirds and the 4th or, if they didn't want to give up the picks, one of their 1999 d-men.

Then they can use the assets saved not paying for Desrochers to go after a veteran depth forward if they think they need one.

 

[Bra Wavers]

They should be targeting all the big guys and willing to deal all the young guys.... If they don't do a couple big things before the deadline then I'm at a complete loss

I agree, but where are their biggest needs?
A top 6 sniper and an experienced shutdown Dman?
They are limited by their OA situation unfortunately.
Earlier this season I thought an upgrade on Jenkins would have been a good move, but he has been very solid as of late.

So Mayday, who should the Petes be targeting and who should they be willing to trade?

IMO, I can't see them trading Gogolev.....they will want to keep him and SDA together.

Which of the 99s would you deal and which would garner the most interest?
Oke has plenty of picks to sweeten any deal, but i'm sure they want to save some for next year when, IMO, I think they'll be even stronger.

 

[OMG67]

Regarding the Ottawa predictions:

Fanjoy - I think he is done. I don't think he is going to resume playing OHL hockey. Things I have heard from outside Ottawa would suggest he is seriously considering hanging up his skates and that it isn't necessarily hockey related.

Steege - Sudbury and Guelph were both ahead of the 67's on the waiver priority when he was nabbed on waivers by Ottawa. I would imagine if either of those two teams were interested they would have done it last month for free instead of paying a pick now.

White - Agree. I don't think he is valued enough to make a deal worth while.

Orban - This is the one that I find most interesting. The 67's have stated they are leaning towards the younger D-Men. The interesting part of this is they have Will Brown playing Jr A in Nepean. I think it is possible they could move Orban (if he wants to go) for a 3rd round pick and replace him with Will Brown. There is some merit to that, especially if Brown comes back as a third pairing guy or the 7th D-Man.

Tyanulin - I put forth the question on another thread wondering what kind of Import space would be available. None of the obvious contenders have space. Peterborough may be the one team to look hard at Tyanulin. The east is wide open. Oshawa will make a move but probably not for a 19 year old, only for a player that will be back next year. I think the Gens will try to add that one additional top 6 forward if they can at a cheap price but other than that they will not move significant assets for a run his year. This may leave the door open for the Petes who do have some assets to move and roster space to accommodate.

Lazarev - The diminutive goalie may be on the market if the price were right. He is not an Import. The 67's seem to be leaning towards Lafreniere as of late which leads me to believe they are prepping him for next year to take over the reigns as the starter. If that is true, I doubt Lazarev would be happy not starting in the playoffs as a 19 year old. There may be some discussion going on. If there is a team that is not too confident in the 'tending, Lazarev may be a great option in front of the right defense..

 

[bobber]

The Rangers have 16 year old Dman Marrick Rippon on the Ottawa Junior Senators. Says he is committed to Providence and won't report. Kid has size. Is 4th or 5th in scoring and plays physical. He is respected by older players for having his team mates backs. He was a second round pick. Wonder if the 67 will look to pick him up in the off season being a local kid.

 

[sbpointer]

I sure hope if London targets Bracco (which doesn't excite me ) they don't overpay and I feel like including Foudy would be a long term overpay. I would be more apt to overpay (if needed) for a solid defensive d a la Jacob Graves. I don't feel like Bracco puts London over the hump more then the current group can.

 

[Voice from the North]

Brock, do yousee a market for Capobianco or McKenzie? There are no rumblings out there for either guy but Sudbury and North Bay should at least see what their value is.

Great article.

 

[OSMike]

Not sure you are quite in tune with the GM style or the OA situation in Owen Sound. GM is pragmatic and is not likely to sell a first rounder, young skill D man and picks for some 19 yo's with OA potential. Nor do we have an OA spot available at this time for Cordell James.

I would predict maybe 1 move before the deadline for a 19 yo with OA potential.

 

[Brock]

Why speculate that first round picks from this year (Dudas/Hayton/Foudy) would be moving? I thought they were basically untouchable for trades because of their no trade clauses. Wouldn't it be bad press for the team to move someone they plan on being a part of their future (and even more of their future if they're part of a package with picks) for a shorter term gain? Or is moving first rounders a lot more common than people think.

There is a small window around the holidays, leading up to the deadline, where recent 1st round picks (in this case, 2000's) can be moved. Each year, there is usually one or two deals involving them changing hands (last year it was Sasha Chmelevski and Robbie Burt). Ultimately, you have to give to get.

 

[Brock]

Keep an eye on the Petes--their GM is under pressure to make a move to try to get Peterborough to the Memorial Cup, as that city badly needs a deep playoff run to keep this team afloat long term.. I believe they've got the pieces to load up at the deadline.
.

I've gotten a lot of flak for not having Peterborough making any moves despite holding a lot of future assets. I thought they would make those moves last year, this year, I just don't see it. They've drafted extremely well in recent years and have put themselves in a position to be quite strong again next year. I don't think their window is this year, I think that's next year and I see them using those assets to beef up in the offseason and at next year's deadline if they're near the top of the East (which they look to be a contender for).

 

[Brock]

Surprised you didn't include Tyanulin. I know he's an import but he's one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, do you think there's a market?

To answer a few questions on Tyanulin. Not sure how much of a market there would be for him. Oshawa is really the only competitive team with a Euro spot open (or at the very least, a spot they'd be willing to trade out). And I'm not sure I see them giving up a lot to bring Tyanulin into the fold, as I see them looking for more size/scoring on the wings and not another undersized forward.

 

[Brock]

Brock, do yousee a market for Capobianco or McKenzie? There are no rumblings out there for either guy but Sudbury and North Bay should at least see what their value is.

Great article.

I don't really see it.

Sudbury needs to make the playoffs this year. It's pivotal for that franchise (fan base, recruiting, player morale, etc). They've rebuilt and re-stocked the cupboards. Time for them to get into the playoffs and get these young guys the experience they need. Dealing Capobianco would be the wrong move for that particular franchise right now IMO. Ok, they'd get some good picks or maybe a solid '99 out of it, but when does the rebuild stop?

North Bay, don't see it being Stan's style. North Bay has a chance to take that division (thanks to Mississauga's slow start) and McKenzie is a pivotal player this year...and quite possibly next year as an OA. I see them adding a few small pieces, not taking away.

But on both, you never know either.