OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 1 ~ SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

NOTE: This is NOT a ranking. The results have just been entered onto the tables I intend to use this year.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

Click to read more...

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 2 ~ SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

NOTE: This is NOT a ranking. The results have just been entered onto the tables I intend to use this year. We still have one more week of exhibition games in all conferences, two out east.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 3 ~ SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

NOTE: This is NOT a ranking. The results have just been entered onto the tables I intend to use this year.

This week brings to an end the CW pre-season. There was one OUA regular season game last week. Otherwise the OUA and AUS start next week. Due to lack of data I started Guelph and Nipissing in C+, although both seem to be trending into C once rankings actually begin.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 4 ~ OCTOBER 1, 2023

NOTE: This is a partial ranking ranking. Now that 8 CW teams and two OUA teams have regular season games played, and have AOA numbers, those have been entered. Teams are also sorted by letter grade, of course on a preliminary basis. The teams within each category are not ranked in any particular order for another week.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Lakeheadfan95]

Regina over lakehead after we smashed them LOL

 

[Hollywood3]

Regina over lakehead after we smashed them LOL

As the pre-amble says, the teams within a category are in no particular order.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 5 ~ OCTOBER 9, 2023

All conferences have now started with regular season games. The exhibition games were used to categorize the teams, but only the regular season games went into the AOA calculations. The green up arrow indicates that the teams would (should) rise a lot if exhibition results were counted, and the red down arrow indicates the opposite.

Since so many teams have dubious AOA numbers, I have not numbered the rankings. The categories, though, are fairly sound.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 6 ~ OCTOBER 15, 2023

To make the AOA numbers make sense, I added in pre-season to smooth the results. That makes this look like the first proper ranking, albeit subject to major fluctuations in the upcoming weeks.

Brock went up from C+ to B, and the Urban Cowboys dropped from C+ to C.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 7 ~ OCTOBER 22, 2023

This week the AOA smoothing utilized the mid-point between the conference records and the overall records. We are gradually entering the era of statistically significant conference records.

The big movement this week was due to Alberta’s sweep of Calgary, Brock’s two wins, and Queen’s two losses.

The teams with a green “up” arrow are likely to move up next week, and those with a red “down” arrow are likely to move down next week. Every time a team shifts categories it affects the rest of their conference, so I am a bit stingy with the re-allocations.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[dm8895]

Well I must say I think seems a helluva lot more accurate than the USports official rankings . Obviously they don’t matter at this time of year but Concordia at 4 seems crazy to me for firing off some wins against weak teams.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 8 ~ OCTOBER 29, 2023

The AOA smoothing calculation remained the same this week. Queen’s fell from B to C+ and Regina, Acadia, and UPEI fell from C+ to C. Nobody was promoted a level. The falling teams have a blue “down” arrow before their name.

Carleton remains in C+. After teetering on the brink of demotion last week, they are now the only team teetering on a promotion.

The teams with a green “up” arrow are likely to move up next week, and those with a red “down” arrow are likely to move down next week. Lots of teams teetering a week ago bounced back this week.

With lots of teams being bounced from C+ to C, the C level now has a C- sub-level.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 9 ~ NOVEMBER 5, 2023

I kept the AOA smoothing for one last week. After next week, the OUA teams will be hitting the 10-game mark.

The big change here is that the Tier 1 of the CW all got moved into B level. That means Calgary moves down, UBC stays put, and Alberta, MRU, and Sask move up. Sask’s AOA is brought down by their pre-season 1-4-1 record, which will vanish next weekend. If you look at the CW teams’ records vs. B level teams, you see a really tight race with UBC on top, and Calgary at the bottom, when measured by percentages.

Overall, it seems like the formerly meaty part of the curve (the C+ teams) has thinned. Especially in the CW, we have Tier 1 haves, and Tier 2 have-nots.

In the OUA, teams seem to radically change their rankings from week to week. Maybe that C+ category is where they all belong, and where they’ll ultimately fall.

In the AUS, it seems UNB is steam-rolling the conference. Moncton is the only team to take them to overtime. In pre-season, the Squirrels also steam-rolled OUA teams whilst the rest of the AUS was around 50/50.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Campy]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 9 ~ NOVEMBER 5, 2023

I kept the AOA smoothing for one last week. After next week, the OUA teams will be hitting the 10-game mark.

The big change here is that the Tier 1 of the CW all got moved into B level. That means Calgary moves down, UBC stays put, and Alberta, MRU, and Sask move up. Sask’s AOA is brought down by their pre-season 1-4-1 record, which will vanish next weekend. If you look at the CW teams’ records vs. B level teams, you see a really tight race with UBC on top, and Calgary at the bottom, when measured by percentages.

Overall, it seems like the formerly meaty part of the curve (the C+ teams) has thinned. Especially in the CW, we have Tier 1 haves, and Tier 2 have-nots.

In the OUA, teams seem to radically change their rankings from week to week. Maybe that C+ category is where they all belong, and where they’ll ultimately fall.

In the AUS, it seems UNB is steam-rolling the conference. Moncton is the only team to take them to overtime. In pre-season, the Squirrels also steam-rolled OUA teams whilst the rest of the AUS was around 50/50.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

Minor detail in the grand scheme of things, St FX also took UNB to overtime at the Aitken Centre on Oct 14. Both the Moncton and St FX games were outstanding entertainment wise.

 

[Hollywood3]

Minor detail in the grand scheme of things, St FX also took UNB to overtime at the Aitken Centre on Oct 14. Both the Moncton and St FX games were outstanding entertainment wise.

I saw that afterwards. It was included in the rankings.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 10 ~ NOVEMBER 12, 2023

This is the first poll without any accounting for non-conference results, except to the extent that those games helped place the teams in various graded levels.

Windsor was relegated from B to C+, where they are in danger of further relegation. Back-to-back relegations are unique. I don’t remember that happening before.

McGill got a boost. However, lots of that comes from a 100% against B level team, based on one game. Starting next week, I will be introducing the smoothing feature for such instances. That should drop McGill a bit, whilst boosting Brock.

The AUS is hard to rank. SMU was doing well, but now cling to the C+ level. It seems that all teams are two levels below UNB, or three.

Nothing new in the CW, where we have five haves, and four have-nots. Sask could fall to C+ if they get swept again.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 11 ~ NOVEMBER 19, 2023

This is the second poll without non-conference results, and the first where the results were smoothed. This only affects the OUA because in the CW and AUS everybody has multiple games against the categories present in that conference. The only team to rise a category is UQTR, up from C+ to B. This is not unexpected. Can St. FX follow suit in the AUS?

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 12 ~ NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Nobody switched categories this week, which is very unusual. However, the Urban Cowboys and Laurier both lost their minus signs within the C level.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 13 ~DECEMBER 3, 2023

Once again, nobody switched categories this week, which is even more unusual. Ontario Tech have beeen moving up, and if they hold on for another week they will be moving up to C+. On the other hand, Lakehead’s two losses move them back to teetering on the brink.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 14 ~ JANUARY 7, 2024

Ottawa was the only team to shift categories, jumping from C+ to B. Ontario Tech could also have been moved up from C to C+, but 38.75 is barely a C+.Windsor and Carleton could be going the other way in a week’s time.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.


NOTE: The site is still not working for images, so just in case I have the URLs for the images.
https://i.postimg.cc/43PdP7xK/24-01-07-OHT35-table-1.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/bvpr1Hpc/24-01-07-OHT35-table-2.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/Tw4R0Lkk/23-11-12-OHT35-table-2a.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/8zhsFn8m/24-01-07-OHT35-table-345.jpg

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 15 ~ JANUARY 14, 2024

This week Lakehead (from C+ to C) swapped spots with Ontario Tech (from C to C+). Otherwise nobody moved, and all teams are within their proper category. These switches shifted the records of all teams in the OUA.

Of note, in the Top Five of the CW, MRU has the best record in head-to-head games going 6-4-0.

It is odd that there are no C+ teams in the CW, and no B teams in the AUS. It would take quite a streak for teams to move into either of those categories. Team movement has really slowed down lately. We have only four weeks of regular season games remaining.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.


NOTE: The site is still not working for images, so just in case I have the URLs for the images.
https://i.postimg.cc/1tBmFg5M/24-01-14-OHT35-table-1.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/V6ms591d/24-01-14-OHT35-table-2.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/Tw4R0Lkk/23-11-12-OHT35-table-2a.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/rpSF8nBB/24-01-14-OHT35-table-345.jpg

 

[Rob]

It is odd that there are no C+ teams in the CW, and no B teams in the AUS. It would take quite a streak for teams to move into either of those categories. Team movement has really slowed down lately. We have only four weeks of regular season games remaining.

For the past few weeks there have been no other AUS teams in the U Sports top ten with the exception of UNB. Overall the AUS is not as strong as it has been for the past two decades.

 

[FreddyFoyle]

For the past few weeks there have been no other AUS teams in the U Sports top ten with the exception of UNB. Overall the AUS is not as strong as it has been for the past two decades.

Don't be too sure of that. The rankings now are based completely on a computer algorithm based mostly on in-conference play. Canada West has three or four teams that everyone beats up on to improve their records; the AUS has one. Because they have better conference records, there are more Canada West teams in Top 10. No human voter adjustment for strength of schedule. AUS teams will probably embrace the "no respect" label and carry it into Nationals. We might see another version of the UPEI - Calgary upset.

 

[Campy]

Don't be too sure of that. The rankings now are based completely on a computer algorithm based mostly on in-conference play. Canada West has three or four teams that everyone beats up on to improve their records; the AUS has one. Because they have better conference records, there are more Canada West teams in Top 10. No human voter adjustment for strength of schedule. AUS teams will probably embrace the "no respect" label and carry it into Nationals. We might see another version of the UPEI - Calgary upset.

Yah I'd hesitate to agree with the AUS-is-not-as strong comment. There's a 22-0 team that is beating up on everyone, all other six teams have 3 or 4 losses to UNB. Only X and Moncton have each managed one overtime point from the Reds. UNB plays everyone 5 times in conference play, UPEI and Moncton have 2 more meetings and the four NS schools have 1 more each.

This is the W/L of the other teams with UNB games out of the equation, Moncton's record with non-UNB games looks handy to Toronto, Concordia and McGill (all top 10's), remarkably Les Aigles have two regulation losses to Dalhousie included in this...so there's that to throw in the soup too.

 

[Hollywood3]

Both AUS and CW have a huge and unusual gap. The CW has 5 teams at the top, all of similar calibre, and 4 others at least two levels lower. The AUS has one team at least two levels above the rest. Tellingly, only UNB did really well in non-conference play against the OUA.

 

[Hollywood3]

OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35 ~ 2023-24 ~ POLL 16 ~ JANUARY 21, 2024

Nobody switched categories this week, but St. FX could move down from C+ to C and UPEI could move up from C to C+.

It seems unlikely that anybody from the AUS will jump from C+ to B, and that anybody in the CW will mpove either from B to C+, or from C to C+.

* indicates total includes a tie game
Conf. indicates overall conference record
Conf-x indicates exhibition record within conference
USP-x indicates exhibition record within USports but outside conference
USP ∑ indicates regular season and exhibition record against USports teams
Other indicates record against non-USports teams
Total indicates record against all teams
AOA is the average of averages against each category of opponent.
~ Indicates results “smoothed” to reduce impact of categories with fewer games. The categories are merged and the value applied to both.