Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[The Nemesis]

continue from the previous thread. That previous thread being this one: Blue Jays Discussion: - It's the off-season. Stuff might happen. Or it might not.

Click to read more...

 

[Garlando]

If you can have Bauer for 30M or Tanaka and Paxton for the same who do you choose?

Good question! From a purely numbers perspective, I think it’s easy to say Tanaka + Paxton as combined as they should accrue more WAR, IP, strikeouts, etc when compared to Bauer on his own. As an example, in 2019, Tanaka + Paxton in 2019 posted 6.8 WAR over 332 innings pitched.

Bauer obviously cant match the counting stats but he has shown the ability to pitch more efficiently than either Tanaka or Paxton and that to me is worth the investment. He posted 5.8 WAR on his own in 2018 and was tracking towards a prorated 6.8 WAR across 200 innings by himself in 2020.

Additionally, when it comes to playoff baseball where every game matters and you’re going up against other elite pitchers like a Blake Snell or Gerrit Cole, I feel more comfortable throwing out Bauer who has accrued the 6th most WAR over the last 3 years on the mound than I do Tanka or Paxton.

Add in Paxton’s recent injury concerns including back surgery last offseason that contributed to lower velocity, and then a left elbow flexor strain and I think it’s an easy decision for me.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Good question! From a purely numbers perspective, I think it’s easy to say Tanaka + Paxton as combined as they should accrue more WAR, IP, strikeouts, etc when compared to Bauer on his own. As an example, in 2019, Tanaka + Paxton in 2019 posted 6.8 WAR over 332 innings pitched.

Bauer obviously cant match the counting stats but he has shown the ability to pitch more efficiently than either Tanaka or Paxton and that to me is worth the investment. He posted 5.8 WAR on his own in 2018 and was tracking towards a prorated 6.8 WAR across 200 innings by himself in 2020.

Additionally, when it comes to playoff baseball where every game matters and you’re going up against other elite pitchers like a Blake Snell or Gerrit Cole, I feel more comfortable throwing out Bauer who has accrued the 6th most WAR over the last 3 years on the mound than I do Tanka or Paxton.

Add in Paxton’s recent injury concerns including back surgery last offseason that contributed to lower velocity, and then a left elbow flexor strain and I think it’s an easy decision for me.

You hit the nail on the head. I will almost always take the assured Cy young contending ace over two possible top of the rotation guys if all things work out. a rotation of Bauer, Ryu, Walker, Ray (if he returns to form) and Pearson should be more than good enough with our line-up. Rogers can still add another guy mid-season if they want.

 

[phillipmike]

Cash AL Manager of the year.

Montoyo finished 3rd.

 

[hoglund]

Cash AL Manager of the year.

Montoyo finished 3rd.

I heard Montoyo finished 2nd below Cash and ahead of Reneria.

 

[phillipmike]

I heard Montoyo finished 2nd below Cash and ahead of Reneria.

I could be wrong but I saw third on the feed.

 

[phillipmike]

Bichette answers if he’s open to changing positions

Bichette: "I would love to stay at shortstop but if there's some way we can enhance the team dramatically, then it's something that I'd be open to talking about"

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I hope the Jays move quick to get Jackie Bradley. He makes too much sense. True centerfielder with elite defense, lefty bat, has speed, untapped offensive upside. Can probably get him for 8 × 2.

 

[Kurtz]

I hope the Jays move quick to get Jackie Bradley. He makes too much sense. True centerfielder with elite defense, lefty bat, has speed, untapped offensive upside. Can probably get him for 8 × 2.

He's nearly 31 - I don't think he has much untapped offensive upside. ~730 OPS and good defense at CF is what you'd get. I wouldn't hate this, but hopefully we get bigger fish.

 

[SDig14]

So what pick would we lose if we signed any of LaMehieu, Bauer, Realmuto or Springer?

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

He's nearly 31 - I don't think he has much untapped offensive upside. ~730 OPS and good defense at CF is what you'd get. I wouldn't hate this, but hopefully we get bigger fish.

Sorry, I didn't mean he's gonna suddenly turn into Jose Bautista or something.

I meant more I think he's capable of performing offensively like he did this year based on pure ability (.260-.280/.330-.350/.420-.450). But he's never quite put together a full season like this because he can be quite streaky. Just a weird feeling about him, but I'll take the 2+ WAR on defense. At worst he's Kevin Pillar with more walks, and on the strong side of a platoon.

I do also have some interest in Yaz from the Giants. He's not a stud defender but decent enough and the lefty bat would be a nice add to the lineup.

 

[TF97]

Sorry, I didn't mean he's gonna suddenly turn into Jose Bautista or something.

I meant more I think he's capable of performing offensively like he did this year based on pure ability (.260-.280/.330-.350/.420-.450). But he's never quite put together a full season like this because he can be quite streaky. Just a weird feeling about him, but I'll take the 2+ WAR on defense. At worst he's Kevin Pillar with more walks, and on the strong side of a platoon.

I do also have some interest in Yaz from the Giants. He's not a stud defender but decent enough and the lefty bat would be a nice add to the lineup.

Bradley Jr. made some changes to his approach this season and it resulted in an intriguing batted ball/plate discipline profile. Certainly not elite by any standards, but a definite improvement over his prior 3 seasons where he was selling out for power to the pull side. This season, he was more disciplined and focused on contact and hitting the ball up the middle and it worked. I would certainly be interested in JBJ on a short-term deal but would only be interested if Grichuk were moved elsewhere. As for Yaz, I think his price would much higher than I would be comfortable paying, despite his control and talent.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Bradley Jr. made some changes to his approach this season and it resulted in an intriguing batted ball/plate discipline profile. Certainly not elite by any standards, but a definite improvement over his prior 3 seasons where he was selling out for power to the pull side. This season, he was more disciplined and focused on contact and hitting the ball up the middle and it worked. I would certainly be interested in JBJ on a short-term deal but would only be interested if Grichuk were moved elsewhere. As for Yaz, I think his price would much higher than I would be comfortable paying, despite his control and talent.

Interesting. I'm gonna look into those changes. I found it strange that his numbers this year were so much better when he put up his worst exit velo averages. But if he put greater focus on going the other way and not trying to pull everything it would make sense. His spray chart does show more flyballs and linedrives to left and left centre compared to the previous year.

 

[hoglund]

I could be wrong but I saw third on the feed.

It does say third on this post, but on CHCH news in Hamilton they reported Montoyo finishing 2nd. I haven't done much research on it, so I don't know the correct answer to it, either way Montoyo finished well.

 

[Cloned]

Good question! From a purely numbers perspective, I think it’s easy to say Tanaka + Paxton as combined as they should accrue more WAR, IP, strikeouts, etc when compared to Bauer on his own. As an example, in 2019, Tanaka + Paxton in 2019 posted 6.8 WAR over 332 innings pitched.

Bauer obviously cant match the counting stats but he has shown the ability to pitch more efficiently than either Tanaka or Paxton and that to me is worth the investment. He posted 5.8 WAR on his own in 2018 and was tracking towards a prorated 6.8 WAR across 200 innings by himself in 2020.

Additionally, when it comes to playoff baseball where every game matters and you’re going up against other elite pitchers like a Blake Snell or Gerrit Cole, I feel more comfortable throwing out Bauer who has accrued the 6th most WAR over the last 3 years on the mound than I do Tanka or Paxton.

Add in Paxton’s recent injury concerns including back surgery last offseason that contributed to lower velocity, and then a left elbow flexor strain and I think it’s an easy decision for me.

Tanaka has apparently lost velocity (which wasn't a strong suit to begin with) and throws a lot of hangers these days, at least according to Yankees reddit. Money can be better spent elsewhere IMO.

 

[Discoverer]

Tanaka has apparently lost velocity (which wasn't a strong suit to begin with) and throws a lot of hangers these days, at least according to Yankees reddit. Money can be better spent elsewhere IMO.

In 2020, his velocity was 1 MPH higher than in 2019 and pretty much exactly in line with his career norm. He was just ok in 2019, but in 2020 his Ks went back up and walks went down. His HR problems continued, but that's always been an issue for him.

He's not my top target, but he's still a really good pitcher and would be an excellent addition to the middle of the rotation at the right price.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

No interest in tanaka unless it was a 1 year deal. Sooner or later he’s getting Tommy John with the condition of his UCL. Don’t think you’ll get much value from him if you give him 3 or 4 years.

think kluber on a 1 year deal makes a lot of sense.

 

[canucksfan]

Stroman accepted the qualifying offer. Not a bad decision.

 

[Discoverer]

Stroman accepted the qualifying offer. Not a bad decision.

I'm surprised he didn't decide to bet on himself, but given the expected market this offseason, I think it's a good call. He gets a great one-year salary and can try next year in (presumably) a much stronger market with no QO.

Gausman pretty much has to accept his, too. I was surprised he even got the QO.

EDIT: I had a discussion elsewhere where someone argued that this is Stroman betting on himself by taking a higher salary for one year and banking on having a big season rather than taking something like $15 million/year long term, and I tend to agree with that.

 

[habamillions]

Stroman accepted the qualifying offer. Not a bad decision.

Smart decision. No team was going to give him more money on a long term deal

 

[weems]

I know we can build a solid team many ways but I'll be dissapointed if we dont aquire one of Bauer, Lindor or Springer.

 

[weems]

 

[jetsforever]

Interesting that Stroman stuck around
I'd rather continue developing Bichette as a SS but if we can get a star there to replace him it'd be great.

 

[Anthrax442]

is Lindor worth losing Gurriel and say, Groshans/ Gurriel's offiensive numbers are great and he has a great throwing arm

 

[Brown Dog]

Bauer makes too much sense. Hope he's their #1 target, and that includes Lindor.