Speculation: Off-Season 2018

[Armourboy]

I truly believe a lot of people on this forum undervalue Erik Karlsson both offensively and defensively.

He's arguably the third best player in the world when healthy, under Crosby and McDavid.

Offensively you may be right, defensively I think he has a long way to go to say he is consistently that good.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I just want to say that it irks me watching Yzerman continually look to upgrade his team, whether being in on Tavares or trying to trade for Karlsson, Meanwhile Poile who has far more cap space to work with would rather stand pat and not upgrade anything on the roster at all, especially our awful 3rd pair.

Ha, I started to write another essay on just this topic here, featuring Yzerman and the Cup-contending Bolts, then threw it away to try to keep my blood pressure down. Not that I want Karlsson, I don't think he's the right fit. But there are other ways we could have been digging for upgrades...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Salomaki leaves I wouldn't be particularly heartbroken TBH. Maybe Gaudreau would get a shot with real NHL players instead of McLeod.

Yeah, Salomaki or Gaudreau as the 13th forward makes no real difference. If anything, I think we know what we have in Salomaki, I don't think he has untapped upside. Gaudreau may not have much either, but since he hasn't had as long a look, we're not quite as convinced about it yet.

 

[PredsV82]

Karlsson to the Bolts only affects us if we make the Cup final. No way we were getting him with the D we already have. This is an excellent outcome.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Offensively you may be right, defensively I think he has a long way to go to say he is consistently that good.

I don't think anybody in the world underrates him offensively. Defensively, it is almost more of a philosophical question. In his own zone, in contained defensive situations, he is bad. He fails to cover his man, he is weak on the puck, he is caught cheating. But. Because of his extraordinary puck skills and offensive vision, the amount of time he is contained in his zone in purely defensive situations is limited. And he moves the puck out well without making many bad turnovers. I think it's a fair argument that since the skill he brings leads to less time spent in the defensive zone, therefore he's of net benefit to a team defensively. That is the whole "a good offense is the best defense" cliche again. But if the question of his defensive ability is focused only on how he behaves in his own zone when he doesn't have the puck, that's where people can rightly point out weaknesses in his game, or suggest that he's "bad defensively".

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Tampa gets Karlsson, hopefully they will need to move a talented winger to make room.

Tyler Johnson more likely. Palat or Killorn could work too. But the thing I don't quite get in all those talks... according to CapFriendly they all have full NTC clauses active in their current contracts. So if that's true, why on earth would any of them waive to go from Tampa to the burning dumpster in Ottawa?

It looks to me like J.T. Miller is the only higher-salaried forward without the NTC protection. I don't know how it couldn't be say him and Sergachev as the main pieces in the deal.

 

[token grinder]

A couple of things-

IIRC Freddie Gaudreau signed a 2 year deal last year. Year 1 was a 2 way, this year was 1 way. I expect him to be on the 23 man opening night roster.

If Erik Karlsson played in Arizona, he would be OEL. Great player on a trash club. Playing under the Canadian microscope boosts what he does. Guys who play up there always seem to be a bit overrated for what they are, even if they are a franchise player. Or even a very good player at one point. Guys like Phaneuf for example. Watch Pacioretty get over paid next season. The entire Leafs blueline-largely regarded as trash, but would need to trade your first born to pluck a Jake Gardiner. You think PK Subban gets 9 million a year playing in Anaheim or San Jose or Carolina? NOPE.

I am interested to see what Tampa gives up for him. A deal centered around Sergachev, a first round pick and one of their top prospects seems fair. They will have to dump a contract, so a vet like Callahan or Johnson will have to ship out and another kid will have to take his place. If Sergachev is in fact the centerpiece, he was a young 40 point player and they are paying an extra 6+ million for 25 points? Futures trades are always harder to gauge than hockey 1 for 1 trades.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Offensively you may be right, defensively I think he has a long way to go to say he is consistently that good.

If you're going to go by eye test, I've seen Ceci, Phaneuf, and even Methot make far more boneheaded plays that makes Karlsson's lowlights look like he's an elite defensive player that don't end up as goals. Karlsson's style just doesn't fit Ottawa's goalies, and even then he always has significantly better suppression metrics, and usually better GA/60. Face it Karlsson is a fantastic defensive player, and would be the 2nd/3rd best defensive player on the Preds.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I don't think anybody in the world underrates him offensively. Defensively, it is almost more of a philosophical question. In his own zone, in contained defensive situations, he is bad. He fails to cover his man, he is weak on the puck, he is caught cheating. But. Because of his extraordinary puck skills and offensive vision, the amount of time he is contained in his zone in purely defensive situations is limited. And he moves the puck out well without making many bad turnovers. I think it's a fair argument that since the skill he brings leads to less time spent in the defensive zone, therefore he's of net benefit to a team defensively. That is the whole "a good offense is the best defense" cliche again. But if the question of his defensive ability is focused only on how he behaves in his own zone when he doesn't have the puck, that's where people can rightly point out weaknesses in his game, or suggest that he's "bad defensively".

He's not good 1v1, but Karlsson's ability to read plays, make timely stickchecks, strippng away the puck from his opponents, etc. is unreal. Besides, Josi and Ellis aren't particularly great in the Dzone and unlike Karlsson, they get hemmed in the Dzone. Also even in the Dzone Karlsson is still better than Ceci, who is Ottawa's go to guy for Dzone assignments (Which is more stupidity on coach than anything really).

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I truly believe a lot of people on this forum undervalue Erik Karlsson both offensively and defensively.

He's arguably the third best player in the world when healthy, under Crosby and McDavid.

Karlsson is actually excellent defensively. He has some of the best metrics out there, and controls zone exits and recovers loose pucks extremely well.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

Sweedish players are amazing, Flames players are amazing, right-handed/left-handed, metrics, suppression, rabble rabble rabble.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Sweedish players are amazing, Flames players are amazing, right-handed/left-handed, metrics, suppression, rabble rabble rabble.

Someone is upset when his narrative of Karlsson doesn't fit facts.

 

[Armourboy]

Sweedish players are amazing, Flames players are amazing, right-handed/left-handed, metrics, suppression, rabble rabble rabble.

Whole league says he's subpar defensively, but no apparently he's excellent. The only reason he isnt a complete tire fire in his own end is because he uses his offensive play to push the play, but from a purely defensive stand point he sure as heck ain't anywhere close to one of the best in the league.

 

[Armourboy]

Someone is upset when his narrative of Karlsson doesn't fit facts.

Nah some of us have had about all we can stand of you for the time being.

 

[Viqsi]

Someone is upset when his narrative of Karlsson doesn't fit facts.

...or they'd prefer a source with a somewhat less biased track record.

* * *​

Whole league says he's subpar defensively, but no apparently he's excellent. The only reason he isnt a complete tire fire in his own end is because he uses his offensive play to push the play, but from a purely defensive stand point he sure as heck ain't anywhere close to one of the best in the league.

I think @Tex76 put it best - it's kind of a philosophical question w/r/t how much you accept the "best defense is good offense" approach. One way or another, you have to acknowledge that he gets results w/r/t preventing goals against. That just tells you not to use him on the PK.

 

[Armourboy]

...or they'd prefer a source with a somewhat less biased track record.

* * *​

I think @Tex76 put it best - it's kind of a philosophical question w/r/t how much you accept the "best defense is good offense" approach. One way or another, you have to acknowledge that he gets results w/r/t preventing goals against. That just tells you not to use him on the PK.

If you are " one of the best in the league" and I'm afraid to put you on the PK something isnt adding up

 

[Mortiest Morty]

Someone is upset when his narrative of Karlsson doesn't fit facts.

I don't have any narrative, I haven't posted anything about Karlsson. Your schtick has become boresome, simple as that.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

If you are " one of the best in the league" and I'm afraid to put you on the PK something isnt adding up

Karlsson PKs better than every other Sens Dman when he does PK, so...

 

[drwpreds]

Karlsson to the Bolts only affects us if we make the Cup final. No way we were getting him with the D we already have. This is an excellent outcome.

Yep- anywhere but Dallas or any other West team is a very good thing for the Preds..........

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Karlsson PKs better than every other Sens Dman when he does PK, so...

Not sure other Sens dmen is a very high bar. And generally being relegated to 90s PK per game, below most other D on the team, hints that he may match against 2nd units more often. But whatever, hopefully we don't ever have to care about EK until the Stanley Cup finals some year soon. His strengths massively overwhelm his weaknesses and everybody acknowledges that so I'm always a little surprised when people get too hung up defending his weaknesses.

 

[Viqsi]

If you are " one of the best in the league" and I'm afraid to put you on the PK something isnt adding up

Now you're just condemning him for not being perfect at everything.

 

[INDhockeyfan]

It isn't a done deal till it happens. It isn't the deadline this doesn't have to happen in 1 day. I am sure negotiations on a contract extension will make it take longer.

 

[LCPreds]

When do we start getting worried about Shea Weber retiring early due to injury? I'm not saying he will retire specifically because of the injury itself, but potentially retire earlier than he may have otherwise.

 

[PredsV82]

When do we start getting worried about Shea Weber retiring early due to injury? I'm not saying he will retire specifically because of the injury itself, but potentially retire earlier than he may have otherwise.

Again, no. He has 30 million reasons not to retire. It wont happen.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Again, no. He has 30 million reasons not to retire. It wont happen.

Why retire when you can LTIR?