Observations Part XIII

[PredsV82]

Old thread is past 1000..... time for lucky number 13

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[drwpreds]

I agree and have mentioned it before about the pro-shop having a poor jersey selection this year.

Due to this, they indirectly sent me to Dick's to purchase a new jersey. I noticed that even at Dick's the 9, 18, 35 and 76 had different materials used for the lettering and numbers. All were home gold, of all sizes, aside from the Forsberg's which they had the whites of.

I've attached a photo below of what I'm referring to when saying different materials for the plates and numerals. The 08/11 Weber was purchased at Sports Seasons that year. The 08/12 Weber was bought at the Preds pro-shop either in the summer of '14 or '15. Finally, the 08/15 Forsberg was purchased at Dick's sporting goods.



In my opinion, the pro-shop should have the top four D and the first three lines of O in stock. I went to a couple of games at Nationwide a few years ago and they had jersey's out the rear and of multiple players.

Preds are probably getting more bang for the buck selling $40 t-shirts hence the poor jersey selection and allocations.

Exactly correct- top 4 D and first 3 lines- agree 100%. I can't for the life of me figure out what their reasons are for NOT doing this. Do they not want our money?? It makes no sense. And the problem about not knowing what you are getting is also very frustrating. Those pics you posted- that would drive me insane.

One of the problems that makes it even more difficult the buy Preds jerseys is the lettering and numbers are so unique. Often times what is for sale just doesn't look like the real thing.

Speaking of that- there is a thread about jersey customization on the main boards, and someone there mentioned a place called Exclusive Pro Sports.

Supposedly they are the official customizer for the Preds. They don't sell jerseys but if you send them your blank they will customize it. I hate having to go through that trouble, but I may try them since it hopefully will guarantee getting the real thing...

 

[Legionnaire11]

I hope Irwin doesn't get into lineup. Even as bad as Carle can be most of the time, he's still a better option than Irwin. This guy got into two games with the Bruins last season, went -5 and never sniffed the NHL after that, and that blueline group was terrible, almost any NHL capable defender would have been an upgrade for them.

 

[101st_fan]

Exactly correct- top 4 D and first 3 lines- agree 100%. I can't for the life of me figure out what their reasons are for NOT doing this. Do they not want our money?? It makes no sense. And the problem about not knowing what you are getting is also very frustrating. Those pics you posted- that would drive me insane.

One of the problems that makes it even more difficult the buy Preds jerseys is the lettering and numbers are so unique. Often times what is for sale just doesn't look like the real thing.

Speaking of that- there is a thread about jersey customization on the main boards, and someone there mentioned a place called Exclusive Pro Sports.

Supposedly they are the official customizer for the Preds. They don't sell jerseys but if you send them your blank they will customize it. I hate having to go through that trouble, but I may try them since it hopefully will guarantee getting the real thing...

EPS does good work.

 

[Pred303]

while I don't read too much into advanced stats as far as being 'predictive', I do like to look at them to confirm what I have seen happening watching past games.

...we should be much better with the puck than we have been so far thru 5 games. we've gone from being one of the better 'possession' teams to next to last in the league in both corsi and fenwick 5 on 5 and bottom 5 all situations to start this season. obviously, we are giving up too many shots, over 33 a game while taking 30 thru 5 games.

..our shooting percentage as a team at even strength is a woeful 4.88% (28th in the league)
..our save % even strength meanwhile is 91.27% (14th)
..meanwhile our shooting % on the PP is a whopping 34.62% (2nd)
...our save percentage while shorthanded is 90%

so overall in all situations we have a shooting percentage of 9.74% (17th), and a save percentage of 90.96% (10th). should come as no surprise since we've scored 15 and given up 15.

since we've been outshot pretty badly even strength these first 5 games it should come as no surprise that we don't have a single player on the team with 'positive' corsi or fenwick numbers. but I do find it amusing when you list these numbers for our dmen that the numbers show our 'best' possession guys so far are in this order;

fenwick;
carle
weber
ellis
ekholm
subban
josi

lol, just exactly the opposite order of what we see and want.

of course, 5 games worth of stats are near meaningless, but it's interesting to look at.

 

[nomorekids]

while I don't read too much into advanced stats as far as being 'predictive', I do like to look at them to confirm what I have seen happening watching past games.

...we should be much better with the puck than we have been so far thru 5 games. we've gone from being one of the better 'possession' teams to next to last in the league in both corsi and fenwick 5 on 5 and bottom 5 all situations to start this season. obviously, we are giving up too many shots, over 33 a game while taking 30 thru 5 games.

..our shooting percentage as a team at even strength is a woeful 4.88% (28th in the league)
..our save % even strength meanwhile is 91.27% (14th)
..meanwhile our shooting % on the PP is a whopping 34.62% (2nd)
...our save percentage while shorthanded is 90%

so overall in all situations we have a shooting percentage of 9.74% (17th), and a save percentage of 90.96% (10th). should come as no surprise since we've scored 15 and given up 15.

since we've been outshot pretty badly even strength these first 5 games it should come as no surprise that we don't have a single player on the team with 'positive' corsi or fenwick numbers. but I do find it amusing when you list these numbers for our dmen that the numbers show our 'best' possession guys so far are in this order;

fenwick;
carle
weber
ellis
ekholm
subban
josi

lol, just exactly the opposite order of what we see and want.

of course, 5 games worth of stats are near meaningless, but it's interesting to look at.

That's not all that uncommon to see in defenseman though, given the deployment and quality of convention you see for bottom pairing defensemen. Barrett Jackman was a 60% corsi player here. Ryan Ellis, in his bottom pairing days, hovered in the low 70s...it all owes to low DZ start percentage. I wonder how these numbers will start to shift if Subban and Josi stay separated (which, long term, I don't think they will, but we'll see).

Will be interesting.

 

[David Singleton]

• Looking at the five-game road trip...

Wed, 10/26, Anaheim;
Thu, 10/27, LA;
Sat, 10/29, San Jose;
Tue, 11/1, Colorado;
Thu, 11/3, Arizona.

Preds really need to come out with at least a 3-2 record, preferably including wins over Colorado and San Jose. 4-1 is very achievable though if they start to figure it out (and a long road trip may help there).

Other thoughts...

• Right now, Ekholm and Subban look better together than Subban/Josi to the eye-test. Subban is not having to learn a new role and a new system at the same time since, with Ekholm, he's playing the role he's comfortable with- ie, take the puck and initiate.
• To the eye-test, Josi/Ellis looked ok in the Pittsburgh game, but I still think they will be manhandled and cycled on often by larger teams.
• Ultimately, I think that after Subban gets his feet under him with the system, he and Josi will be put back together. Just don't know if that's in 5, 10, or 15 games.
• Really liked the spark and look of Forsberg and Fiala together. They are similar players in that both are snipers with playmaking skills and work really well on the rush. Forsberg is well ahead in stickhandling and Fiala seems a fair bit faster on his skates. Might be tempted to put Fisher between them as he can keep up, can score, can screen, provides a defensive conscience, and decent guy in the dot to get them the puck.
• If Fisher goes between Forsberg and Fiala, I'd put Wilson to the left of Johansen and Neal. See if we can Neal going. Arvy to the left of Riberio and Smith isn't bad and Jarnkrok can rotate in to either Arvy's or Riberio's spot as needed.
• Weber doesn't look bad in the bottom pairing at all. We really miss Bitetto. Carle has had a pretty rough start.

 

[NSH615]

• Looking at the five-game road trip...

Wed, 10/26, Anaheim;
Thu, 10/27, LA;
Sat, 10/29, San Jose;
Tue, 11/1, Colorado;
Thu, 11/3, Arizona.

Preds really need to come out with at least a 3-2 record, preferably including wins over Colorado and San Jose. 4-1 is very achievable though if they start to figure it out (and a long road trip may help there).

Other thoughts...

• Right now, Ekholm and Subban look better together than Subban/Josi to the eye-test. Subban is not having to learn a new role and a new system at the same time since, with Ekholm, he's playing the role he's comfortable with- ie, take the puck and initiate.
• To the eye-test, Josi/Ellis looked ok in the Pittsburgh game, but I still think they will be manhandled and cycled on often by larger teams.
• Ultimately, I think that after Subban gets his feet under him with the system, he and Josi will be put back together. Just don't know if that's in 5, 10, or 15 games.
• Really liked the spark and look of Forsberg and Fiala together. They are similar players in that both are snipers with playmaking skills and work really well on the rush. Forsberg is well ahead in stickhandling and Fiala seems a fair bit faster on his skates. Might be tempted to put Fisher between them as he can keep up, can score, can screen, provides a defensive conscience, and decent guy in the dot to get them the puck.
• If Fisher goes between Forsberg and Fiala, I'd put Wilson to the left of Johansen and Neal. See if we can Neal going. Arvy to the left of Riberio and Smith isn't bad and Jarnkrok can rotate in to either Arvy's or Riberio's spot as needed.
• Weber doesn't look bad in the bottom pairing at all. We really miss Bitetto. Carle has had a pretty rough start.

To add to this, they really need to win that LA game. It is about as winnable as any LA game has ever been with us getting Peter Budaj in goal.

 

[drwpreds]

• Looking at the five-game road trip...

Wed, 10/26, Anaheim;
Thu, 10/27, LA;
Sat, 10/29, San Jose;
Tue, 11/1, Colorado;
Thu, 11/3, Arizona.

Preds really need to come out with at least a 3-2 record, preferably including wins over Colorado and San Jose. 4-1 is very achievable though if they start to figure it out (and a long road trip may help there).

Yep- I would be very happy with 3-2. That would put us at 5-5 after a BRUTAL opening 10 game stretch. The schedule gets much more manageable after this road trip.

 

[Soundgarden]

while I don't read too much into advanced stats as far as being 'predictive', I do like to look at them to confirm what I have seen happening watching past games.

...we should be much better with the puck than we have been so far thru 5 games. we've gone from being one of the better 'possession' teams to next to last in the league in both corsi and fenwick 5 on 5 and bottom 5 all situations to start this season. obviously, we are giving up too many shots, over 33 a game while taking 30 thru 5 games.

..our shooting percentage as a team at even strength is a woeful 4.88% (28th in the league)
..our save % even strength meanwhile is 91.27% (14th)
..meanwhile our shooting % on the PP is a whopping 34.62% (2nd)
...our save percentage while shorthanded is 90%

so overall in all situations we have a shooting percentage of 9.74% (17th), and a save percentage of 90.96% (10th). should come as no surprise since we've scored 15 and given up 15.

since we've been outshot pretty badly even strength these first 5 games it should come as no surprise that we don't have a single player on the team with 'positive' corsi or fenwick numbers. but I do find it amusing when you list these numbers for our dmen that the numbers show our 'best' possession guys so far are in this order;

fenwick;
carle
weber
ellis
ekholm
subban
josi

lol, just exactly the opposite order of what we see and want.

of course, 5 games worth of stats are near meaningless, but it's interesting to look at.

I think things will even out eventually, I mean it hasn't even been ten games yet. Look at the standings and we're 11th in the West, but our goal differential is 0 while the next four teams ahead of us are -2 to -8.

 

[token grinder]

while I don't read too much into advanced stats as far as being 'predictive', I do like to look at them to confirm what I have seen happening watching past games.

...we should be much better with the puck than we have been so far thru 5 games. we've gone from being one of the better 'possession' teams to next to last in the league in both corsi and fenwick 5 on 5 and bottom 5 all situations to start this season. obviously, we are giving up too many shots, over 33 a game while taking 30 thru 5 games.

..our shooting percentage as a team at even strength is a woeful 4.88% (28th in the league)
..our save % even strength meanwhile is 91.27% (14th)
..meanwhile our shooting % on the PP is a whopping 34.62% (2nd)
...our save percentage while shorthanded is 90%

so overall in all situations we have a shooting percentage of 9.74% (17th), and a save percentage of 90.96% (10th). should come as no surprise since we've scored 15 and given up 15.

since we've been outshot pretty badly even strength these first 5 games it should come as no surprise that we don't have a single player on the team with 'positive' corsi or fenwick numbers. but I do find it amusing when you list these numbers for our dmen that the numbers show our 'best' possession guys so far are in this order;

fenwick;
carle
weber
ellis
ekholm
subban
josi

lol, just exactly the opposite order of what we see and want.

of course, 5 games worth of stats are near meaningless, but it's interesting to look at.

I wonder how much of that is due to playing Chicago twice, Dallas and Detroit, 4 teams that shoot from everywhere as compared to playing teams that don't put 80 shots per game at the net

 

[triggrman]

Offensively, Josi and Ellis are better paired together as Ellis is one that like Weber, creates more from the actual blueline than he does cheating in, whereas Josi is more of an end to end guy, much like Subban.

Ekholm is a good skater, can be physical in front, and is responsible enough to cover for Subban when Subban does skate in, so that should work too.

 

[David Singleton]

Offensively, Josi and Ellis are better paired together as Ellis is one that like Weber, creates more from the actual blueline than he does cheating in, whereas Josi is more of an end to end guy, much like Subban.

Ekholm is a good skater, can be physical in front, and is responsible enough to cover for Subban when Subban does skate in, so that should work too.

Agreed. It's defensively where Josi/Ellis scares me a bit. lol

 

[Pred303]

a really tough trip ahead. mentally preparing to operating on not enough sleep for a week.

 

[Pred303]

personally, I expect a great effort tonight for this game. and will very disappointed if we don't see one. of course, that's because if I have to lose sleep on a weeknight and get up before 5 I expect to be rewarded for it.

 

[glenngineer]

personally, I expect a great effort tonight for this game. and will very disappointed if we don't see one. of course, that's because if I have to lose sleep on a weeknight and get up before 5 I expect to be rewarded for it.

Bet we crap the bed tonight and play lights out tomorrow. Reasoning you ask? One, to tick you off, the Preds, not me. Two, we've been off since Saturday, will take a game to get back in the swing of things and that's just the way we are as a team. Think we'll win a game, we lose and vice versa. They love to drive us nuts. Then throw the lack of sleep on us thing on top of it and it magnifies the situation tenfold.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

personally, I expect a great effort tonight for this game. and will very disappointed if we don't see one. of course, that's because if I have to lose sleep on a weeknight and get up before 5 I expect to be rewarded for it.

Oh boy. Should be an interesting post incoming.

The only observation I have last night is I hope we kept the return tags cause we need Weber and Jackman right now. We once again got manhandled in front of our net which lead to Point shots finding the back of our net. We have to clear the crease.

On the Ducks 6th goal, I was literally standing in front of the TV screaming at Carle to move his man and predicted to my wife point shot goal as it was happening. Literally could've scripted the entire play.

We are going to keep losing games if we don't clear the crease and give Rinne help.

I'm sorry, one bonus observation: I thought the officiating tonight was horrific for both teams. Blown offside calls, bad icing calls and at least five clear as day penalties I saw during the game against both teams. Unacceptable.

 

[Pred303]

hockey is a maddening sport. truly maddening. a sleepy, not happy fan this morning obviously. a few disgusted thoughts;

..in hockey sometimes things just go against you. sometimes you deserve them, sometimes you don't. we did.
..we have sucked since we traded barb murphy for subban commercials. coincidence?

..we actually had guys that deserved better. smith, Wilson, Forsberg, weber, rinne, fisher, sissons, Watson weren't awful.
..we are marshmellow soft. but we play 'fast'. not saying that's a good thing when you don't play defense.
..rinne might have given up 4 goals but he wasn't terrible. we simply hung him out to dry.

..that might have been the most shorthanded scoring chances I've ever seen against us in one game in 19 years of watching us.
..we played a team that plays a very aggressive PK for maybe the first time this year. and it showed

..this team has some 'difficult' personalities that make us a tougher team to really love. we now have 4 guys with well deserved reputations for being 'chirpers' in Ribeiro, neal, johansen and subban.
..the obvious backbreaker last night was johansen's lack of discipline penalty when we trailed 2-0.
..when things aren't going our way, those 4 guys too often seem to come apart at the seems
..I don't like that

..the PK looks rough right now. really worried here.
..we don't have a guy to clean up in front of the net (cough), which is causing tons of problems. and might cause continued ones.
..I would so trade carle for Jackman right now . but hey, he's a 'puckmover', so I guess things will be ok. since we have 6 puckmoving d-men, things should be double ok.

..the two deflections off the iron from smith (on the subban shot) and Wilson (on the josi shot) could have possibly changed the look of this game. horseshoes and hand grenades I suppose.
..subban is actually a slower skater than weber. just something I've noticed.
..credit the ducks on PP goal one. that was some pretty passing. of course we were out of position totally down low (subban).
..josi has been truly bad these first 6 games honestly.
..at least Forsberg seemed to wake up some. had at least 4 good scoring chances. that's a partial ray of hope.
..glad to see Wilson get the goal. if anyone needed to get something positive out of this fiasco might as well been him.


oh well. sometimes when you win, you didn't play as well as the score shows (PIT), and sometimes when you lose you didn't play as badly as the score showed. this wasn't necessarily a perfect example of that old adage.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

hockey is a maddening sport. truly maddening. a sleepy, not happy fan this morning obviously. a few disgusted thoughts;

..in hockey sometimes things just go against you. sometimes you deserve them, sometimes you don't. we did.
..we have sucked since we traded barb murphy for subban commercials. coincidence?

..we actually had guys that deserved better. smith, Wilson, Forsberg, weber, rinne, fisher, sissons, Watson weren't awful.
..we are marshmellow soft. but we play 'fast'. not saying that's a good thing when you don't play defense.
..rinne might have given up 4 goals but he wasn't terrible. we simply hung him out to dry.

..that might have been the most shorthanded scoring chances I've ever seen against us in one game in 19 years of watching us.
..we played a team that plays a very aggressive PK for maybe the first time this year. and it showed

..this team has some 'difficult' personalities that make us a tougher team to really love. we now have 4 guys with well deserved reputations for being 'chirpers' in Ribeiro, neal, johansen and subban.
..the obvious backbreaker last night was johansen's lack of discipline penalty when we trailed 2-0.
..when things aren't going our way, those 4 guys too often seem to come apart at the seems
..I don't like that

..the PK looks rough right now. really worried here.
..we don't have a guy to clean up in front of the net (cough), which is causing tons of problems. and might cause continued ones.
..I would so trade carle for Jackman right now . but hey, he's a 'puckmover', so I guess things will be ok. since we have 6 puckmoving d-men, things should be double ok.

..the two deflections off the iron from smith (on the subban shot) and Wilson (on the josi shot) could have possibly changed the look of this game. horseshoes and hand grenades I suppose.
..subban is actually a slower skater than weber. just something I've noticed.
..credit the ducks on PP goal one. that was some pretty passing. of course we were out of position totally down low (subban).
..josi has been truly bad these first 6 games honestly.
..at least Forsberg seemed to wake up some. had at least 4 good scoring chances. that's a partial ray of hope.
..glad to see Wilson get the goal. if anyone needed to get something positive out of this fiasco might as well been him.


oh well. sometimes when you win, you didn't play as well as the score shows (PIT), and sometimes when you lose you didn't play as badly as the score showed. this wasn't necessarily a perfect example of that old adage.

I am really worried about these two things. They are going to continue to be a problem if they don't get addressed.

I thought Wilson, Smith and Watson were our best players last night. Watson, in particular was probably our best forward. Thought that 4th line looked good.

Johansen, Neal Ribs and Fiala were invisible. We aren't going to win games if those guys aren't getting chances. I know Fiala had two goals the other night, but I really question his NHL readiness.

 

[hockey diva]

Glad I didn't watch that dumpster fire.

 

[triggrman]

hahhaha, I guess it was typing my call this morning and mixed it in.





Fiala was not invisible. Fisher was, Johansen was, Neal was. Arvidsson, Fiala, Wilson, Smith and Forsberg all played decent.

 

[Pred303]

Lol trig.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Usually I DVR the game to watch it again the next day... I think I just need to hit delete on that one.

I know we're all trying to stay calm and say "wait until they're 20 games in"... But things need to start turning around really fast for there to be any reason for hope at the 20 game mark.

I just keep telling myself that we knew October was going to be brutal when the schedule came out.

 

[ThirdManIn]

Bring up the kids again. ****.

Per the shorthanded chances the Ducks had, I decided to flip it off and just go to bed after their scored their shorthanded goal. They had three chances that PP. That is completely unacceptable.

 

[FossilFndr]

Usually I DVR the game to watch it again the next day... I think I just need to hit delete on that one.

I know we're all trying to stay calm and say "wait until they're 20 games in"... But things need to start turning around really fast for there to be any reason for hope at the 20 game mark.

I just keep telling myself that we knew October was going to be brutal when the schedule came out.

Yep, games starting @ 10:30 eastern are always DVR'd, got home late with < 10 minutes to go decided to take a quick peak at the live game. Watched for 2 minutes then deleted the recording. No desire to subject myself to that today.