Observations IV

[Armourboy]

we can use the 'no scheduled practice' excuse, but honestly every morning skate is really a practice with specifics for that night's game. if one goes to a morning skate and a regular practice one will see little difference. normally the length is about the same. the intensity tends to be a little lower, but they tend to work on the exact same things.

phsycially it's always a tough league with little time off. this year's schedule is actually less busy than some of the olympic years have been. do we really think that other teams are 'way more rested' than we are because they've played 2 less games in the past 5 weeks? anaheim has actually played one more game than we have, and they didn't look too tired to play that 3rd period. these guys are young, highly paid professional atheletes in top shape. i don't buy being physically tired as an excuse. not even in back to back games, especially the 25 year olds. i do understand tired legs in the second game of a back to back, but think that is way too often overstated and overused.

i understand mental fatigue, and think mental fatigue is way more real for these guys than physical fatigue. historicaly teams lose more often in the second game of a back to back than they do normally true. but studies in the past have shown statistically regular position players perform almost exactly to average in the 2nd game. the difference being that second game back to back historically draw your backup goalie, and in games where your regular goalie plays both games his average save percentage drops around 3% in the second game. (that's mental fatigue because of the intense focus required of a goalie). and why the second game of a back to back is tougher to win normally.

Anaheim may have played one more game, but they also didn't play the night before and that is a huge difference when it comes to playing at the end of the game.

I know people like you and others keep saying that fatigue has little to do with it so you know I went out and got an opinion of a sports fan who isn't a hockey fan ( although he did watch it years ago). I tell him about the 3 games in 4 days, and then giving him the details on our 3rd period. With out hesitation he looked at me and said " duh they were more tired than the other team ". He went on to state that it didn't matter what sport it was, if you played the night before ( or on short rest) that a team that didn't had a marked advantage.

Now I'm not gonna sit here and believe that he is an authority on anything, but the difference is he doesn't have a dog in the hunt, he could of cared less if we won or lost. He isn't looking for a reason, excuse, or anything else. Now is being tired a factor in the entire bad run? No probably not. Was it a factor in this game? I have no doubt in my mind and I can bet you any other fan of any other NHL team is probably also saying " duh they are tired " as well.

I've heard the argument that its not a factor because of the playoff schedule. I call BS and the main reason is this, the other team ( at least at the start of the playoffs) will have played the exact same schedule you have. If you play a back to back, they played a back to back. In that scenario then yes its a non-factor because you both have the same factors. That was not the case for this game.

Do we have some problems? Yes we do, no doubt. Do I put a ton of it on the leadership and the coaches? Yes I do. But sitting here today I feel much better about the last 4 games than I did the 10 prior. Why? Because at least in the last 4 the guys were in the games with a chance to win. Most of the ones prior, they were out of them nearly from the start.

We didn't hit this slump overnight and we aren't going to fix it overnight either. The defense and the goalie ( until the 3rd last night) have played better the last 4, the thing lagging behind is the offense. I think that simply boils down to guys trying to do too much, and playing as individuals far too much.

I don't know if they can fix it, I hope they do as I would at least like to see a decent first series. If not though we end the year exactly where most of us thought we would be, in the playoffs but probably getting put out in the first round.

 

[wadesworld]

As I said in another post, Anaheim has done that to a ton of teams this year. Anaheim is just that good. Why they can't be that good all the time is an interesting question in and of itself, but we're not the only team to say "WTF just happened" after having a lead on them.

While I'm upset about the slump, I have to keep reminding myself of the slumps through which other teams have gone. Look at Minny, who slumped for nearly half the season. Or Chicago, or St. Louis, both of which have had short slumps and some long slumps. Those slumps are why we were so far out in front of them.

All that to say, while they're going to pass us (or have passed us), it's not because we suck. It's because they slumped earlier.

I certainly don't think this is a "team of destiny" as it appeared for much of the year, but I'm not ready to concede the playoffs yet.

 

[Armourboy]

I think part of it too that helps is the way I'm looking at things too. For me we are 2-2 and in our last 4, not 3-11 or whatever it is.

 

[101st_fan]

I think part of it too that helps is the way I'm looking at things too. For me we are 2-2 and in our last 4, not 3-11 or whatever it is.

We're 0-fer about five weeks against teams currently in playoff position. Beating the #9 seed doesn't get me going ... beating the Yotes (OT), Avs, Sabres (SO) is just treading water against the bottom tier. The PP scored in the last two games ... improving to 5-45 over the past month.

 

[Byrddog]

Im not gonna speak or Steve but I agree with the fatigue as a crutch excuse. I can tell you this from my personal experience on there hardest day not one NHL player as exerted themselves as much a grunt something Steven knows little about as well. After a 4 or 5 day jaunt your not as fresh as day one but you can still perform. To imply playing 20 minutes one day then collapsing in the 3rd period of a game the next day is just laughable.

As Steve pointed out these are professional athletes, if they are incapable of handling this level of fitness or mental toughness perhaps they should play golf. There are plenty of other teams out there that are able to fight thru and not collapse. If fatigue is truly an issue that has resulted in this losing streak then these guys are not what I have thought they were over the years.

 

[token grinder]

Have we really not truly practiced in 6 weeks?

something like that.

And The practice thing is real. So is mental fatigue.

Here is an example of the practice thing. Look at Minnesota. Their coach has a meltdown and then they are red hot. Coaches won't melt down in a morning skate. Practice is a good time to tweak and work on things. Yes, lengths may sometimes be the same, but guys are focused on themselves rather than what the ducks are gonna do, or what the kings are gonna do. ANd I think that is part of our problem. We are too worried about what teasm are trying to do rather than ake them adjust to us.

Mental fatigue I have no answer to. It is real. It sucks. These guys have to push through it.

 

[Drake744]

Im not gonna speak or Steve but I agree with the fatigue as a crutch excuse. I can tell you this from my personal experience on there hardest day not one NHL player as exerted themselves as much a grunt something Steven knows little about as well. After a 4 or 5 day jaunt your not as fresh as day one but you can still perform. To imply playing 20 minutes one day then collapsing in the 3rd period of a game the next day is just laughable.

As Steve pointed out these are professional athletes, if they are incapable of handling this level of fitness or mental toughness perhaps they should play golf. There are plenty of other teams out there that are able to fight thru and not collapse. If fatigue is truly an issue that has resulted in this losing streak then these guys are not what I have thought they were over the years.

I think everything can be a crutch excuse at this point. Fans want results and any reason they aren't getting them will fall on deaf ears.

As for the last part, I've never played sports professionally so I won't judge what they should or shouldn't be affected by, or what kind of people this makes them.

 

[Byrddog]

I think everything can be a crutch excuse at this point. Fans want results and any reason they aren't getting them will fall on deaf ears.

As for the last part, I've never played sports professionally so I won't judge what they should or shouldn't be affected by, or what kind of people this makes them.

You can say you heard it here first. If this team does not turn around there will be HF posters calling for Lavi's Nads before the Cup is raised. While coaching has played its part the biggest part sits right on the ice. Players are not performing, this fanbase is not as mature as most who would be calling for roster changes to make a difference. So we endure we can't trade this guy or that guy or this rookie will fix the problem. We have just as many holes in the roster today as we had at the end of last season.

 

[drwpreds]

Completely disagree with anyone who completely dismisses the fatigue factor. It absolutely exists and its really not even up for debate.

And again, for the millionth time I am NOT saying that fatigue is a reason or excuse for any sports team to lose or slump. It is not. But it is absolutely a factor and it happens in all sports, even when it seems to not make sense.

Case in point- I watched Kentucky in Nashville this weekend and Calipari commented on how tired his team was towards the end of the SEC tournament. Do you believe him? Is he lying about it??

So to go back to the argument above that "how can these guys be tired they are 25 year old professional athletes- they shouldn't be tired!!"- the Kentucky basketball players are 19 and 20 year olds who have played 34 basketball games- 34! About 50 fewer than NHL teams. Heck, in the NFL, they get bye weeks to keep from getting worn out- they play 16 games, one a week.

NHL players play one of the most grueling schedules in sports- 82 games- in a sport that I would argue is one of the hardest to play and stay fresh- and the Preds are at the end of one of the hardest schedule stretches that a team can face in the NHL.

There is zero doubt that they were worn out yesterday.

Again, not an excuse, you have to find a way to fight through it- but to totally dismiss it is foolish............

Just my 2 cents

 

[drwpreds]

You can say you heard it here first. If this team does not turn around there will be HF posters calling for Lavi's Nads before the Cup is raised. While coaching has played its part the biggest part sits right on the ice. Players are not performing, this fanbase is not as mature as most who would be calling for roster changes to make a difference. So we endure we can't trade this guy or that guy or this rookie will fix the problem. We have just as many holes in the roster today as we had at the end of last season.

We have issues, no arguing that, but I do not agree with the bolded above at all.

 

[Drake744]

Completely disagree with anyone who completely dismisses the fatigue factor. It absolutely exists and its really not even up for debate.

And again, for the millionth time I am NOT saying that fatigue is a reason or excuse for any sports team to lose or slump. It is not. But it is absolutely a factor and it happens in all sports, even when it seems to not make sense.

Case in point- I watched Kentucky in Nashville this weekend and Calipari commented on how tired his team was towards the end of the SEC tournament. Do you believe him? Is he lying about it??

So to go back to the argument above that "how can these guys be tired they are 25 year old professional athletes- they shouldn't be tired!!"- the Kentucky basketball players are 19 and 20 year olds who have played 34 basketball games- 34! About 50 fewer than NHL teams. Heck, in the NFL, they get bye weeks to keep from getting worn out- they play 16 games, one a week.

NHL players play one of the most grueling schedules in sports- 82 games- in a sport that I would argue is one of the hardest to play and stay fresh- and the Preds are at the end of one of the hardest schedule stretches that a team can face in the NHL.

There is zero doubt that they were worn out yesterday.

Again, not an excuse, you have to find a way to fight through it- but to totally dismiss it is foolish............

Just my 2 cents

 

[Byrddog]

We have issues, no arguing that, but I do not agree with the bolded above at all.

Ok Neal = Horni
Ribs has been an improvement
Smith> Smith Last year
Wilson career year but the difference a wash with Smiths drop.
Fish about the same as last season
3rd line oh wait we still do not have a 3rd line
4th Line about the same
Im open to your opinion where we have made significant improvement other than Rinne and Josi who IMO have been the biggest reason for the teams success.

 

[Drake744]

Ok Neal = Horni
Ribs has been an improvement
Smith> Smith Last year
Wilson career year but the difference a wash with Smiths drop.
Fish about the same as last season
3rd line oh wait we still do not have a 3rd line
4th Line about the same
Im open to your opinion where we have made significant improvement other than Rinne and Josi who IMO have been the biggest reason for the teams success.

He didn't say "significant improvement", I think he was taking issue with your statement that we have as many holes now as we did at the end of last year.

 

[101st_fan]

Ok Neal = Horni
Ribs has been an improvement
Smith> Smith Last year
Wilson career year but the difference a wash with Smiths drop.
Fish about the same as last season
3rd line oh wait we still do not have a 3rd line
4th Line about the same
Im open to your opinion where we have made significant improvement other than Rinne and Josi who IMO have been the biggest reason for the teams success.

Smith is on pace to score more goals but put up fewer assists than last season.

 

[Byrddog]

He didn't say "significant improvement", I think he was taking issue with your statement that we have as many holes now as we did at the end of last year.

If you plug a hole with a warm body what difference does it make? Jarnkrok Roy, Jokinen, Santo, Franson. at some point you have to plug the holes with improvements. Not sayin its easy but to be competitive especially in the post season . This is where the whole potential argument comes in as well. Jarnkrok had potential to be better than Spaling in some aspect he is but in some hes a significant drop. Thtas the danger when relying on kids to fill too many spots.

 

[Armourboy]

Ok Neal = Horni
Ribs has been an improvement
Smith> Smith Last year
Wilson career year but the difference a wash with Smiths drop.
Fish about the same as last season
3rd line oh wait we still do not have a 3rd line
4th Line about the same
Im open to your opinion where we have made significant improvement other than Rinne and Josi who IMO have been the biggest reason for the teams success.

That one line just shot a whole in your own statement.

Think real hard, name me one player we could of realistically gotten in the off season to fix any of the current problems we have. The answer by the way is you won't find one. You can't fix every problem overnight, you just can't.

Noticed you left Forsberg off that list, who has been as good or better than any forward we could of gotten in the offseason.

Now for general comments not specific to the quote.

This was a transition year, we all knew it going in. We were a bubble team at best and now suddenly that we are coming back to reality our roster went to ****?

Lets face it, everyone got their expectations jacked all to hell mid season and now its driving everyone nuts. This year was supposed to be a junk year, I knew it, you knew it, 303 knew it and so did everyone else. Just because we bought into the hype and are now getting our hearts broke suddenly people think something drastic needs to happen?

Poile just needs to keep on his plan, whatever that is going into next season by getting rid of some guys and contracts you don't need ( Cullen) see what is available and move the young guys up you think are ready. Its the part of me still wonders if the trade had crap to really do with improving this roster and more to do with getting first shot at Franson and Santorelli so other moves could be made ( Ellis/Jones/whatever trade).

 

[INDhockeyfan]

It wouldn't surprise me if we found out that Weber is playing injured. At the end of the season lots of guys are banged up and with our schedule no time to rest and heal up. Neal has had a lingering injury that has got him out now. It is easy for us to say they are professionals they should be able to play through but we don't really know everything. How many times do you see guys having surgery in the offseason for injuries we had no idea they had.

 

[Predsboro]

This is quite frustrating .... all season long, I've kinda kept my excitement in check as I felt we were playing above our heads and that teams like MIN, DAL, COL would eventually break out of their funk and get into last season's form. Took a lot of heat from some of my friends that, here was Mr. Day One STH downplaying the Predators this season.

Then, around ASG time, I broke out of it and began to believe that this could be that magical season we've all dreamed of having on Broadway.

Then ... BAM ... suddenly we hit the skids and that magic seems to be gone. No President's Trophy, no Central Division banner, no Hart, no Vezina, no Norris, no Calder. Now hoping we still can get home ice in the first round and not meet Chicago or St. Louis and deal with our fans selling out and their fans swarming our arena.

I know ... still plenty of time. But my hope of this team showing some heart and getting out of this funk is waning ....

[/rant]

 

[drwpreds]

He didn't say "significant improvement", I think he was taking issue with your statement that we have as many holes now as we did at the end of last year.

Exactly correct-

 

[Byrddog]

Armor you may not like Ribs I don't know but he slide into the hole Leggy was in Leggy had a total of 14 g 37 a for 51 between Detroit and the Preds last season. Ribs has had 13 g 41a thru 71 games this season he may eekkk out a few more points who knows but has already out produced Leggy. As to not including Forsberg well I really do not count on rookies or second year players in consideration due to the fact they are so unpredictable all you have to do is look at McKinnion last year to this year and the drop off Forsberg has had in the last 6 weeks. This is the very thing that confuses me about many who want to bring in Watson or this rookie or that rookie you never know. Look at Hook there was a point watch on him every game last year and he has struggled mightly. Same with FF9 we were reminded every day how many points he had the first three months of the season but when he slipped the clammer dried up. These guys may well be great players they show the skills to do so but Hook is over his head right now trying to adjust and FF9 is trying to do too much on his own.

Yes we saw this coming and honestly I did not think initially that the team was more than a bubble team at best honestly I didn't think they would make the playoffs but Colorado and Dallas have stumbled and bumbled all year. I was excited enough to buy season tix for the first time in 3 years with getting Neal who has done about what I thought he would do without elite players around him. And no FF is not elite yet Ribs is really a good 2C nothing like Neal played with in Dallas or Pit.

Now Drake and Drw If a team is not going to make significant improvements then why make trades. Poile for sure felt that was the case moving Horni and Spaling for Neal. It has not proved to be the case yet for sure Horni's net presence has not been replaced and Spalings faceoffs and shutdown role have been hit and miss with the players they have tried there. Ribs is horrid at faceoffs where Leggy was better and Leggy had the edge in his defensive play. And as amazing as it sounds the team has allowed few goals this year mainly Rinne. So yes The holes or positions Poile addressed over the summer are about the same or perhaps a little worse. The system Lavi brought in has increased GPG .2 if memory serves me right over a pretty hit and miss year last year.

And again yes I bought into the team as the season went on knowing that they would come closer to earth at some point but I did not expect the top lines 5 on 5 to just die for a month that does not happen to good teams much less the type team some people think even now this team is now. Heck all of us are harder on the team than other teams fans now who still think it capable of a deep run. SOme of the same people that do not realize that Josi is overshadowing Weber for us and still see Weber as the Norris winner.

The issues facing this team now are more complicated than fatigue, mental toughness or poor puck luck or confidence. Can they put something back together before the end of the season about the best I could see would be .500 hockey but im afraid that is out of reach in the last games due to the teams they face positioning for playoff position. Now before someone goes off saying they can lose all the games and still be .500 that's not what im saying, im saying playing .500 in the remaining games.

 

[Armourboy]

Armor you may not like Ribs I don't know but he slide into the hole Leggy was in Leggy had a total of 14 g 37 a for 51 between Detroit and the Preds last season. Ribs has had 13 g 41a thru 71 games this season he may eekkk out a few more points who knows but has already out produced Leggy. As to not including Forsberg well I really do not count on rookies or second year players in consideration due to the fact they are so unpredictable all you have to do is look at McKinnion last year to this year and the drop off Forsberg has had in the last 6 weeks. This is the very thing that confuses me about many who want to bring in Watson or this rookie or that rookie you never know. Look at Hook there was a point watch on him every game last year and he has struggled mightly. Same with FF9 we were reminded every day how many points he had the first three months of the season but when he slipped the clammer dried up. These guys may well be great players they show the skills to do so but Hook is over his head right now trying to adjust and FF9 is trying to do too much on his own.

Actually I have no problem with Ribs, in fact my point was that your own statement that we didn't fill any holes was blown away by the fact that immediately after that you said Ribs had been an improvement.

And how can you not count a guy that has 20+ goals as an improvement or whole filler? Just because he's a rookie? Really? Like Vets don't do the same thing? We've certainly had our share of them. You don't get to throw a guy off the list who played an important role this year just because you want to, or because at the start of the season we didn't know.

As far as Hook goes, to me he is a guy that needs one more year, or at least a year to see if you can get him to do what needs to be done to get ready for the season next year. If he doesn't and he still has the same problems I have no issue letting him go. Yeah we gave up Leggy, but meh who cares.

Really though I don't care much about getting into arguments about who filled who, and this ones spot etc. mainly because the guys are so different. We knew we were going to have faceoff and possibly PK problems losing the players we did. I think Santo more or less was picked up to sort of fill that same spot Spaling did, although he hasn't been that great. I think Jarnkrok did ok as far as PK thing went, most of the complaints on him have been on the offensive side of things ( shocker another Preds forward who suddenly can't score). We knew we weren't going to replace Horns, I'm not sure there has been anyone available all year that plays like he does in front of the net.

However overall I do think the team is better, its just different and has a completely different identity.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I really hope the boys are keeping it together in the locker room. If they are taking it as hard as this fanbase is, they would be at each other's throats

 

[Pred303]

slumps are always tough on a fanbase. some want to hear no wrong, others want to hear no right. excuses always abound. the truth is that players are simply slumping, unfortunately all at the same time. rinne's below normal play has probably cost us 3-4 wins during this stretch, while the forsberg-neal-weber offensive slump another 3-4 wins. sometimes players just fail. we're not deep enough to overcome scoring slumps, and simply have no way to overcome weak goals allowed. if either hadn't happened, this slump would have been been playing about .500 hockey over the past 14 instead of the 4-9-1 we've done and the fan base wouldn't be so angry.

 

[MrJoshua]

So far this season, when the goaltending hasn't been great the offense has been on fire. When the offense has been bad, the goaltending has been stellar. Right now we're seeing what happens when both slump at the same time. The results are not good.

That said, I'm glad we're getting this out of the way now instead of ten games later in the season. Because let's face it - Rinne isn't going to keep playing poorly. The offense isn't going to keep being completely inept. At some point things are going to turn around and I expect that to happen just in time to be peaking going into the playoffs.

I'm still optimistic. Not as optimistic as I was (almost against my will) back before the All-Star break, admittedly, but I still think this team is much better than any of us expected this season and, frankly, at this point I'm trying my best to take this whole season as an unexpected treat. If they go into the playoffs hot and make some noise, awesome, but that will just be gravy after the surprisingly fun year we've had so far (until this recent unpleasantness, anyway).

Yes, it sucks that we all bought into the chances of a division or even President's trophy banner to hang in the rafters and it looks like that won't happen this season. BUT, when you look at the core of this team, their ages, and the young talent like Forsberg that has started to blossom, it makes me think that next season could be even better. So even as I'm down about missing that opportunity this season, I'm pretty happy about the near-term future of the team. I just try to focus on that instead of the disappointment, because if this isn't fun what's the point?

 

[Pred303]

going into this season i thought we were about a 100 point team, and unfortunately i think that is very near where we wind up. unfortunate in the fact that our hopes and expectations got raised so dramatically for so long (and probably unrealistically). we are a better club than last year no doubt (and we were a better club last year than the 88 points showed because of the rinne injury). hopefully with another year of experience for the youngsters, a couple of smart off season pick ups, and possibly a new rookie scorer (fiala?) added to the mix we can be an even stronger team next year. we have to add more scoring depth and strength to be the team we all want us to be.


in my mind, our real shot at being a truly elite team (defined as one of the two or three best teams in the league) might be in 1-2 years or so. (if we're really lucky and vets production hold up, the right adds are made and the rookies develop).

now none of that doesn't mean we aren't capable of pulling off some miracle this year or next. in the playoff's everyone has a chance. it's always a crap shoot, and we get to roll our dice like everyone else does.