Speculation: Nylander XVIII (all Nylander discussion here)

[Funk21]

I don't know that I'd do just Pesce and Kuokk alone for Nylander, especially since we'd have to overpay Nylander to get him to sign (if he'd take his "actual value" he'd sign with the Leafs). While not "untouchable", I see Kuokk as a prospect I want to hold onto.

Prospects I'm not likely putting on the table: Necas, Kuokkanen, Foegele, Fox

In the right combination I'd consider: Zykov, Saarela, Roy, Bean, Gauthier

I think that most would agree Nylander is the best player in this trade but considering everybody we need to sign (Matthew, Marner and Kapanen) the idea of getting a top 4 RHD plus prospects would be appealing as it solidifies our top 4, gives us cap relief and more ammo for our team next year with the prospects we would be getting in the deal. Our LW is pretty thin and the idea of Zykov and another Forward or Bean in the farm system is pretty appealing.

I think what your presenting as options would be something the TML brass can live with IMO. I would likely want both Zykov and Roy with a pick/prospect going back.

 

[BillNy]

I don't disagree with your premise... I don't think there was any decision process at the signing of Marleau regarding the affordability of Nylander, several years down the road. Too many moving pieces, including the probability of signing Tavares at $11m at the time... Even the most optimistic of Leafs fans wouldn't have penciled that into our cap at the Marleau signing. Plus, we can't overpay Nylander, and then use that as a benchmark for Marner and Matthews.

For me, I think Zaitsev's trash and think there's probably a team dumb enough to take his deal. Marleau only has one year left, and it seems implied there's a chance he doesn't play year three (I've wondered if the Sharks take him back for that if they have space, everyone involved has implied he might not be done there). There are ways to create some space. Go stars and scrubs, honestly. You play hardball with Nylander, sure, but I prioritize signing Nylander all other things. Big deal with the Marleau deal is that he wasn't worth $6.5MM the couple seasons before he hit UFA, and you knew you'd have kids expiring and defensive needs and whatever when you signed him. That's why you don't commit to overpaying guys.

 

[Liferleafer]

For me, I think Zaitsev's trash and think there's probably a team dumb enough to take his deal. Marleau only has one year left, and it seems implied there's a chance he doesn't play year three (I've wondered if the Sharks take him back for that if they have space, everyone involved has implied he might not be done there). There are ways to create some space. Go stars and scrubs, honestly. You play hardball with Nylander, sure, but I prioritize signing Nylander all other things. Big deal with the Marleau deal is that he wasn't worth $6.5MM the couple seasons before he hit UFA, and you knew you'd have kids expiring and defensive needs and whatever when you signed him. That's why you don't commit to overpaying guys.

We could make that decision easy...just win the cup this year.

 

[TML1967]

Grade A defensively, smooth skating and quick. Closes gaps quickly, makes good breakout passes, can stop the cycle and defend the front of the net. Moves up and down the ice efficiently. Grade B- offensively, his presence on the ice causes the team to create offence but he doesn't necessarily have the tools to put up #1D offensive numbers (50+ points). He's never really played with overly offensive teams though, and sees little powerplay time, so he might be a bit like Trouba in that he may have that side hidden under his defence first mentality. I'm not betting he can do that, but at the same time we wouldn't need him to.

He'd be our 2nd best defenceman no doubt, would clean up the right side for many years. Question is do you deal a player like Nylander for that skill set? His contract and the addition of a prospect from Carolina may tip the scales, but it will almost always come down to the 2 biggest assets in the deal. Is Pesce enough to want to move Willy?

I think the end of your post is the big debate.
What sized + comes to make the deal worth while? Is it a Zykov type? Is it a Gauthier? A larger deal with multiple pieces from both sides?

I think as a base it makes sense, but the devil is in the details.

 

[LakeLivin]

Ok so

Faulk+Necas (1/2)
Pesce+Kuokkanen+2nd (1/2)
Pesce+Kuokkanen (2/2)
Pesce+ Protected 1st + Saarela/Roy etc (1/2)
Pesce+Saarela/Roy etc +2nd (2/2)

Correct?

From my perspective Necas is a nonstarter. Canes are thin at center and he's likely a big part of the Canes future there. If Necas were included, he'd be the base and the add would be a B prospect or a pick, not Faulk (not saying Leafs would be interested).

I'm not sure what your numbers in parentheses mean, but I wouldn't add to Pesce + Kuokk. Not sure I'd even do that deal alone. I'm not even necessarily arguing value, again it comes down to long term fit within the organization.

Pesce, Ferland and a pick for Nylander? Got to think something has to give here soon with Nylander. The Leafs nor Nylander can waste his talent by having him sit a year.

Canes went out and specifically targeted a player like Ferland in the offseason to help change the team's culture. They gave up a very promising young player in Lindholm to get him. Odds of the Canes including Ferland in a deal for Nylander are almost nil, and again, that's completely independent of value; it has to do with fit.

 

[MinJaBen]

Pesce + Kuokkanen + Gauthier for Nylander + Holl/Bracco/Borgman/?? + 2nd.

Pesce + Gauthier for Nylander. We'll keep Kuokkanen and you can keep your pick and stuff.

 

[Fogelhund]

For me, I think Zaitsev's trash and think there's probably a team dumb enough to take his deal. Marleau only has one year left, and it seems implied there's a chance he doesn't play year three (I've wondered if the Sharks take him back for that if they have space, everyone involved has implied he might not be done there). There are ways to create some space. Go stars and scrubs, honestly. You play hardball with Nylander, sure, but I prioritize signing Nylander all other things. Big deal with the Marleau deal is that he wasn't worth $6.5MM the couple seasons before he hit UFA, and you knew you'd have kids expiring and defensive needs and whatever when you signed him. That's why you don't commit to overpaying guys.

I don't think Zaitsev is trash, though I do think we signed him to a long term deal, for too much, too soon. He's playing some pretty heavy minutes for against, plenty of Dzone starts, and not doing outright terribly. You get a guy like Pesce though, and he replaces what Zaitsev is doing now, and is much better at it... then the question is, is Zaitsev at second pairing D, for what he brings worth it? Well, you'd have the rest of the season to find out, wouldn't you? But if you get rid of him, is Hainsey the second pairing RD next year, OZ? Lilly? Still need someone there.

 

[Fogelhund]

Pesce + Gauthier for Nylander. We'll keep Kuokkanen and you can keep your pick and stuff.

Kuokkanen would be the priority I think... Gauthier a secondary ask, more likely dropped if necessary.

 

[LakeLivin]

I think that most would agree Nylander is the best player in this trade but considering everybody we need to sign (Matthew, Marner and Kapanen) the idea of getting a top 4 RHD plus prospects would be appealing as it solidifies our top 4, gives us cap relief and more ammo for our team next year with the prospects we would be getting in the deal. Our LW is pretty thin and the idea of Zykov and another Forward or Bean in the farm system is pretty appealing.

I think what your presenting as options would be something the TML brass can live with IMO. I would likely want both Zykov and Roy with a pick/prospect going back.

I could live with that. I appreciate that you're trying to get a deal done that benefits the Leafs but works for both sides, not just win a trade by as big a margin as possible.

 

[4thline]

I'm not sure what your numbers in parentheses mean, but I wouldn't add to Pesce + Kuokk. Not sure I'd even do that deal alone. I'm not even necessarily arguing value, again it comes down to long term fit within the organization.

The number of responding Canes fans that would do it.

I'd be completely torn between Kuokkanen vs 2 of Zykov, Saarela, Roy, Bean, Gauthier, 2nd as the adds.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Can someone give me a scouting report on Pesce? Just want to know what to expect from people who have seen him for a number of years, like consistency, is he overrated, underrated etc. I dont know how to gather deeper information about players other than your opinions. The scouting reports are a good start, but for example I could detail some leaf players games in much more detail for you if needed.

thank you guys

Pesce is not a player that will make a lot of impact plays on the defensive side of the puck with his stick like Slavin, but he plays that positional game that results in quiet effectiveness. The only real weakness in his own zone is that he's vulnerable to getting beat by speedy forwards (namely Chris Kreider) on cross corner dumps. He moves well for his size overall, though. Pesce's first pass is good for a player of his type; he's not a dump off the glass guy. He joins the rush from time to time. The offense dries up in the attacking zone. He doesn't have a playmaking acumen and he doesn't possess the shot to overcome that weakness. There's room for improvement in his numbers just by virtue of playing behind better forwards than Carolina has to offer, however. Overall, he's a player that you feel comfortable with being the defensive compliment on a top pair or being closer to the best overall defenseman on a middle pair. To top it off, he's signed to a great contract (~$4 mil for the next 5.75 years.)

Given the choice between trading Hamilton for Nylander and Pesce for Nylander, I'm 65/35 for giving up Hamilton. No sell job here. That's my honest opinion.

 

[LucicAndChong]

WTF did i just read?

see I saw the 5 goals in 5 games and I thought he was doing really well, my bad

 

[LakeLivin]

Ok, so what's with the current ask of Kuokkanen as the add to Pesce, lol? A couple of thread iterations ago his name wasn't even mentioned. Then one poster suggested him, I declined as the one B+ prospect we'd like to keep, and now he seems to be the add of choice.

So I'm modifying my position as follows: sure you can have Kuokk. But we're not giving up Roy, Gauthier, or Zykov. No matter who you add, they're off the table. Anyone else except them! I want to do a deal, just don't ask for Roy, Gauthier, or Zykov! Whatever you do!!

 

[Liferleafer]

I suspect if Nylander is traded it will be the same feeling as the Kessel trade. We all wanted a lot more than we got...it is what it is, and i will trust management to do what's best for the team going forward.

 

[Liferleafer]

Ok, so what's with the current ask of Kuokkanen as the add to Pesce, lol? A couple of thread iterations ago his name wasn't even mentioned. Then one poster suggested him, I declined as the one B+ prospect we'd like to keep, and now he seems to be the add of choice.

So I'm modifying my position as follows: sure you can have Kuokk. But we're not giving up Roy, Gauthier, or Zykov. No matter who you add, they're off the table. Anyone else except them! I want to do a deal, just don't ask for Roy, Gauthier, or Zykov! Whatever you do!!

Fair enough...Necas it is.

 

[socko]

I really have no interest in Pesce so I hope the Leafs share than sentiment. The Leafs are a high talent, fast, scoring team, and taking a stay at home defenseman has little appeal especially if we're giving up a talented player. I would consider Doug Hamilton or Colton Parayko.

 

[4thline]

Ok, so what's with the current ask of Kuokkanen as the add to Pesce, lol? A couple of thread iterations ago his name wasn't even mentioned. Then one poster suggested him, I declined as the one B+ prospect we'd like to keep, and now he seems to be the add of choice.

So I'm modifying my position as follows: sure you can have Kuokk. But we're not giving up Roy, Gauthier, or Zykov. No matter who you add, they're off the table. Anyone else except them! I want to do a deal, just don't ask for Roy, Gauthier, or Zykov! Whatever you do!!

I want him because I see him as an under the radar A- type prospect, very similar to our own Kapanen , and wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 40 point in a season before his ELC is out and 60 before his career is done.

If you break forwards into 4 basic pools Elite/line drivers (A), contributors(B), support (C), and depth (D) I see him as a solid bet to be a long term B, with the others being D's you hope turn into C's.

 

[LakeLivin]

site hiccuped, triplicate post.

 

[LakeLivin]

Fair enough...Necas it is.

Lol, I anticipated that response, that's why I specified "B+ prospect". Sorry, Necas doesn't qualify.

 

[Liferleafer]

Lol, I anticipated that response, that's why I specified "B+ prospect". Sorry, Necas doesn't qualify.

I grade a lot tougher than most...

 

[Critical13]

I suspect if Nylander is traded it will be the same feeling as the Kessel trade. We all wanted a lot more than we got...it is what it is, and i will trust management to do what's best for the team going forward.

Agreed.

I have faith in Shanny and Dubas.

 

[LakeLivin]

I really have no interest in Pesce so I hope the Leafs share than sentiment. The Leafs are a high talent, fast, scoring team, and taking a stay at home defenseman has little appeal especially if we're giving up a talented player. I would consider Doug Hamilton or Colton Parayko.

Pesce is by no means a stay at home defenseman. While he doesn't score a lot, he skates well and moves the puck well. Seems like he'd be a good complement to your scorers.

 

[LakeLivin]

I want him because I see him as an under the radar A- type prospect, very similar to our own Kapanen , and wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 40 point in a season before his ELC is out and 60 before his career is done.

If you break forwards into 4 basic pools Elite/line drivers (A), contributors(B), support (C), and depth (D) I see him as a solid bet to be a long term B, with the others being D's you hope turn into C's.

In all seriousness, I'm wondering why he seems to have come up from under the radar. I liked him down there just fine!

 

[socko]

Pesce is by no means a stay at home defenseman. While he doesn't score a lot, he skates well and moves the puck well. Seems like he'd be a good complement to your scorers.

Yeah, I watched a few games lately when the rumors came up. Pass.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Chicago was a fast, high talent, scoring team and won 3 cup with a 20-25 point Hjalmarsson logging big minutes. Teams can and generally have to walk and chew gum at the same time; you want a mix of offense and defense in your Top 4.

I find the preference for Hamilton over Pesce befuddling. Pesce is a better fit for the Leafs all things considered. Pesce may be a better fit for the Canes all things considered and Carolina has issues offensively that the Leafs don't have. Are the optics of trading Nylander for less than a big name that important?