Speculation: Noah Dobson's Next Contract

[impaaaaaact]

Wondering what you guys think this may be like. I'm seeing a lot of speculation of something around 3 years, 3.5M which is a number that it seems like he's sure to outplay. However, given his play over the last 6 weeks and seeing how he has flourished with additional ice time could it be prudent to lock him up to a longer deal at a higher AAV? Something like 5.5Mx7 would lock him up long term for the team and also set him up to cash in big as an age 29 UFA. We have the space to do it this year, and the cap is only going up from here. What do you guys think would be the best move?

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[TMI]

Honestly, no matter the length, and given the direction of contracts to younger productive guys, I don't see him signing for less than $6M per. I may be wrong, but I doubt it.

 

[periferal]

Honestly, no matter the length, and given the direction of contracts to younger productive guys, I don't see him signing for less than $6M per. I may be wrong, but I doubt it.

I don't know how it's going to shake out, but Dobson ain't getting 6+ million on his next deal.

I know he's more offensive, but Pelech is still our best overall defenseman and he's only getting 5.75M.

 

[The Real JT]

I don't know how it's going to shake out, but Dobson ain't getting 6+ million on his next deal.

I know he's more offensive, but Pelech is still our best overall defenseman and he's only getting 5.75M.

6+ is crazy and offensive.

 

[periferal]

6+ is crazy and offensive.

Seriously.

Of course we all hope at some point Dobson is worth more than 6M/year, but for a guy who still hasn't reached his potential and was pretty much a mess until the last dozen or so games, ain't no chance in hell that he's jumping from 894K/season to 6M/season (to become our 4th highest paid player) when he's only a RFA and Lou is negotiating.

 

[TMI]

I may be wrong, but if he keeps trending in the trajectory he's currently on, we'll see.

 

[gordie43]

6+ is crazy and offensive.

inflation?

 

[Osakahaus]

getting at least 3-4M for that next contract

 

[19 in a row]

we will be up against the cap again next year.. I am thinking the 3.5x3

Wondering what you guys think this may be like. I'm seeing a lot of speculation of something around 3 years, 3.5M which is a number that it seems like he's sure to outplay. However, given his play over the last 6 weeks and seeing how he has flourished with additional ice time could it be prudent to lock him up to a longer deal at a higher AAV? Something like 5.5Mx7 would lock him up long term for the team and also set him up to cash in big as an age 29 UFA. We have the space to do it this year, and the cap is only going up from here. What do you guys think would be the best move?

We will be up against the cap again next year, have to sign Bellows as well, maybe Clutter to a team friendly, and Salo (and we still need to add a LD, can you say Leddy?)... Wild guess but I am thinking the 3years 3.5-4M, is in the more likely range. Dobson does not have arbitration rights yet. A 3 year deal would still leave him short a few years short of UFA. Likely his next contract is where he can cash in on a bridge contract.

 

[SCMURRAY]

Id guess a 2-3 year bridge. If he can continue to pace at 30-40 pts per yr then pay him his big contract at 25

 

[SI]

Dobson will want a bridge... something like McAVoy 2 y 4.5 AAV, because after that if he continues delivering he'll make 8 or 9 m AAV on a long term deal.

 

[Riseonfire]

I hope like hell it's 7 years at like 4M. Like SI said tho Dobson would be smart to look for a bridge, bet on himself and go for that payday.

 

[TJHKY]

Maybe have 2-3 years bridge contract 4-5M AAV. Then get 8 years big contract.

 

[seafoam]

8 years by 6.75M per.

 

[SCMURRAY]

2yr bridge, $4mil per

 

[JKP]

Dobson will want a bridge... something like McAVoy 2 y 4.5 AAV, because after that if he continues delivering he'll make 8 or 9 m AAV on a long term deal.

This. His agent will want to maximize the LT $$ in a couple years when the cap is going up again.

 

[EXTRAS]

He just scored 50+ points

Look at what all the young dmen that are doing that are getting.

If he bridges it's probably at 5.5M And if he goes long term it's your first born child.

 

[WangMustGo]

This. His agent will want to maximize the LT $$ in a couple years when the cap is going up again.

I think its an ideal scenario for both the Isles and Dobson. Give him a 3 year bridge deal for 5.5-6per, and than sign him to an 8 year deal with higher annual value. Dobson makes more money in the long run, and the isles have him under contract for longer.

 

[CupHolders]

I think its an ideal scenario for both the Isles and Dobson. Give him a 3 year bridge deal for 5.5-6per, and than sign him to an 8 year deal with higher annual value. Dobson makes more money in the long run, and the isles have him under contract for longer.

I like three years too. By then Nelson and Palmieri’s deal are set to expire. By then hopefully lower cost younger replacements are looking for their bridge deals.

 

[boredmale]

I would offer him a 6M a year contact and let him pick term 6-8 years. I am guessing though he will sign for 2 years at less then 6M

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Macavoy was 4.9 AAV for three years , can’t see Dobber getting more

 

[Johnsie19]

Macavoy was 4.9 AAV for three years , can’t see Dobber getting more

I think given his immense potential and NYI cap struggles we may see a large offer sheet for him. I can't see him signing for anything much less than 6 mil. The league is just so short on good young RD.

Rumblings in Van they reacquired their 3rd to make someone an offer sheet something like 4-6 mil roughly is a 1st and 3rd. Would be the perfect fit for Van.

 

[CupHolders]

I think given his immense potential and NYI cap struggles we may see a large offer sheet for him. I can't see him signing for anything much less than 6 mil. The league is just so short on good young RD.

Rumblings in Van they reacquired their 3rd to make someone an offer sheet something like 4-6 mil roughly is a 1st and 3rd. Would be the perfect fit for Van.

Keeping with your Van example. How is NYI cap more of a struggle then the Canucks?

Also, there really isn’t anyway that the Isles don’t match 6mil over accepting a 1st and 3rd. So in that regards I suppose your initial assertion of him signing at 6m may be true.

But I can’t see the Canucks positioned well enough to actually make a SUCCESSFUL offer sheet for Dobson. However, I admit that I also don’t know their cap circumstances as well as the Islanders.

Finally, Lou has shown that he can get players/agents to be more accommodating to bridge deals. Because he has also demonstrated that he will take care of them on their UFA year deals. These UFA year deals are the contracts that HFBoards usually has a field day criticizing when they are signied.

 

[PWJunior]

Keeping with your Van example. How is NYI cap more of a struggle then the Canucks?

Also, there really isn’t anyway that the Isles don’t match 6mil over accepting a 1st and 3rd. So in that regards I suppose your initial assertion of him signing at 6m may be true.

But I can’t see the Canucks positioned well enough to actually make a SUCCESSFUL offer sheet for Dobson. However, I admit that I also don’t know their cap circumstances as well as the Islanders.

Finally, Lou has shown that he can get players/agents to be more accommodating to bridge deals. Because he has also demonstrated that he will take care of them on their UFA year deals. These UFA year deals are the contracts that HFBoards usually has a field day criticizing when they are signied.

On top of everything you posted, why would Dobson sign an OS with Vancouver? Other than Vancouver fans lusting after the kid and dreaming up ways to poach him for their scraps, he has ZERO connection to that team, city, or even region. Dobson is from PEI and I could understand if Montreal wanted him and he wanted to play closer to home or something, but that's not the case.

Let's keep the HF Fan Fiction to a minimum here. Dobson is a core piece, he's not going anywhere.

 

[PK Cronin]

Keeping with your Van example. How is NYI cap more of a struggle then the Canucks?

Also, there really isn’t anyway that the Isles don’t match 6mil over accepting a 1st and 3rd. So in that regards I suppose your initial assertion of him signing at 6m may be true.

But I can’t see the Canucks positioned well enough to actually make a SUCCESSFUL offer sheet for Dobson. However, I admit that I also don’t know their cap circumstances as well as the Islanders.

Finally, Lou has shown that he can get players/agents to be more accommodating to bridge deals. Because he has also demonstrated that he will take care of them on their UFA year deals. These UFA year deals are the contracts that HFBoards usually has a field day criticizing when they are signied.

Lamoriello being a loyal guy is why he's given flexibility in these situations, despite how much fans despise it sometimes. Players and agents trust him when he tells them something and that is very valuable. He's the exact opposite of the Vegas GM.