" No way we can keep all our first picks "

KlimasLoveChild

Registered User
Feb 25, 2012
2,922
570
The cap rises virtually every year, unless some artificial factor kicks in. And even if for some reason it doesn't go up in 2014, then it will rise in 2015. It is not speculation, it is reality as informed by history and awareness of the NHL's economics. And even if you don't know it, Yakupov and his representatives do.
If Yakupov signs for the same money as Hall (presuming he doesn't sink next season), it will be because he made a selfless team-oriented decision with little regard to his economic bargaining power. Don't talk to me about fairy tales when you're the one wishin' and a hopin' and a prayin' that a 1st overall pick is going to roll back his salary demands to fit a 2012 (Hall, Eberle) or 2011 (Stamkos, Tavares) paradigm.


You are talking about negotiations within a couple years in which time the cap has been rolled back....to me that means deflation. Do you not think that eliminates the supposed differences in paradigm? We're talking a few short years here not decade lets get real. If anything it works against Yak in that the new cap world is dealing with a roll back, and revenue uncertainty related to the work stoppage. What we do know is the cap is lower now then when Ebs and Hall signed. Will it be back to the same level when yak signs? Maybe but this history you speak of is a grand total of seven years in the cap world.

The Salary Cap for the 2015-2016 will almost certainly be higher than that of the 2013-2014 (or 2011-12) season. PLUS Yakupov will have higher-salaried comparables, thanks to the new CBA rules. PLUS he will have greater negotiating power, as a result of the very real KHL threat. (Yakupov may not want to play in the KHL, but he is a greater threat to go there than Hall, Eberle, etc. and his agent would be a fool not to exploit that in negotiation.) PLUS there is no way for the team to reduce the cap hit by front-loading it or signing a massive extension. PLUS, assuming he stays healthy next season, he has less incentive to sign an early extension than Hall did following two injury-shortened seasons.

How many NHL players have been stolen to the KHL? I can think of one and anyone else that goes there is a hack, a never was or never will be. Idle threats and mystery contract offers aren't going to heavily impact his contract negotiations. The KHL isn't very enticing even for Russians.

Many people here in their assumptions seem to view the Hall/Eberle contracts as maximums for the rest of the core. In Yakupov's case - assuming he more or less approximates Hall's sophomore numbers - the Hall contract is more likely a minimum.

You seem to like to down grade others for their assumptions then in the same breath base your entire argument on a number of your own.... :huh:Interesting. I still don't see how you figure he matches halls numbers then expects to use his contract as a minimum starting point. Doesn't really pass the smell test.

There is virtually no reason for Yakupov to demand or expect anything less than that. And that's a statement without judgment on his character. That is a simple fact. Take it from someone with professional negotiation and advocacy training and experience - there is very little compelling reason to use those numbers as anything other than a starting point. Taylor Hall does not set a salary cap for Nail Yakupov. It's a loose guideline at best, and more likely a salary floor. If he signs for Hall's numbers, it's likely going to be a shorter term deal. And why not?

I like the back pedaling at the end there. You must be doubting yourself or at the very least leaving yourself an out it the event you are wrong. If Yak signs short term it is because he has crapped the bed and not lived up to expectations.


You - and a large portion of the Edmonton fanbase & media in general - better prepare for the likelihood of a larger contract than expected. And watch out if Yakupov manages to exceed Hall's numbers and put up something near Stamkos's, because his salary demands are going to blow some small market minds. Especially when he gets them.

If he puts up Stamkos numbers he will get Stamkos type money...my mind isn't blown. I'd be happy we have a fifty goal scorer on the team.

And again, that's not judgment on Yakupov. That's not me saying the Oilers can't afford him or have to trade him. That's just me saying the economic reality is likely harsher than most people expect, and people need to put themselves in Yakupov's (or his agent's) shoes and think about things from that business perspective. Because it could be a PR disaster if he gets treated like a villain for serving his own business interests, and I sure as hell don't trust this current Oilers management to be able to finesse that issue.

So let me get this straight..... you created this huge hypothetical based on a number misguided assumptions in order to be the guy who said I told you so and Oilers management is incompetent. Ok......to you it is man... to you it is:facepalm: Let me guess...former oilers employee??
 

McQuixote

Registered User
Jan 27, 2006
4,480
0
Edmonton, AB
How many NHL players have been stolen to the KHL? I can think of one and anyone else that goes there is a hack, a never was or never will be. Idle threats and mystery contract offers aren't going to heavily impact his contract negotiations. The KHL isn't very enticing even for Russians.

In addition to Radulov and Jagr, Kovalchuk used the promise of the KHL in order to increase his negotiating leverage as well. Based on how the KHL has operated in the past, I highly doubt there will be any mystery to any contract offer. I also doubt Yakupov has much interest in the KHL at this stage in his career, but if there's a difference of, say $3-4 million a year, that makes a big difference in Nail's Worst Case Scenario when it comes to throwing dollar figures around. It also makes a difference if the contract negotiations reach a hold-out point. In that situation, do you see Nail sitting in Edmonton in October making $0 in a game of chicken when he could go home for a year (or a few months) and make millions? I don't.

Edit: And of course, Ryan O'Reilly did it too. Look at how that worked out for him!



I still don't see how you figure he matches halls numbers then expects to use his contract as a minimum starting point. Doesn't really pass the smell test.

Salaries typically rise over time. At the very least, one has to adjust Hall's salary for inflation. Plus, under this new CBA, cap figures for significant players are coming in higher than we would have expected even a year ago. Zajac is a $5.75 million dollar player. Getzlaf and Perry are $8+ million dollar players, when their cap figures in 2012 would likely have been in the $7-7.5 million range that Parise got.



I like the back pedaling at the end there. You must be doubting yourself or at the very least leaving yourself an out it the event you are wrong. If Yak signs short term it is because he has crapped the bed and not lived up to expectations.

I don't know what sort of conversation you think we're having here, but it is speculative. I don't think I'm wrong here. If Yakupov makes a massive salary demand that the Oilers are uncomfortable meeting, a shorter-term deal is a possible bridge that could benefit both parties. I expect that if Yakupov plays up to potential, the Oilers will want a long term deal in order to secure his services for as long as possible. However, it could very well be that an RFA-only deal, 2-3 seasons, is the best thing for the team and the player.





If he puts up Stamkos numbers he will get Stamkos type money...my mind isn't blown. I'd be happy we have a fifty goal scorer on the team.

If he puts up Stamkos numbers he will get greater than Stamkos-type money. It's not 2011 anymore.



So let me get this straight..... you created this huge hypothetical based on a number misguided assumptions in order to be the guy who said I told you so and Oilers management is incompetent. Ok......to you it is man... to you it is:facepalm: Let me guess...former oilers employee??

You are a strange person. Your guess is quite incorrect.

I didn't create a hypothetical - this is a thread about the 2nd contracts for the Oilers' core. They will get 2nd contracts - fact. I see an assumption floated around this board quite regularly that the Hall contract represents a sort of "salary-cap" for the team, in the way no Pen can make more than Crosby and no King could make more than Kopitar (whoops).

I think this is an incorrect assumption, especially vis a vis Yakupov. I think that his cap hit will be higher than Hall's, even without doing substantially more than Hall (in the same way Hall's cap hit was higher than Tavares, even without doing substantially more than JT). If I put myself in the shoes of Yakupov's representative, I see no compelling reason that Taylor Hall's 2012 contract should dictate the terms of my client's signed 2-3 years later.

The Oilers - be it their management or their fanbase - does not have the best record when it comes to being dispassionate about player contract negotiations. From Coffey to Poti to Comrie to Smyth (and with many other examples in between), there has been a lot of vitriol when it comes to this issue. Whether or not it is the fault of Oilers management, they historically haven't done a very good job managing the PR aspect of these issues (and others).

I think it's best if the fanbase does not fall into the paradigm of thinking Hall's contract represents a 'team salary cap' and prepares themselves for Yakupov signing for noticeably more. Because unless he, in your words, craps the bed, I can't see him signing for less.
 
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Oiltankjob Fail

Registered User
Feb 10, 2013
6,686
0
@ JonQuixote Yakupov will be a fast and easy signing for what he is worth , they will not play chicken with him and will try and extend him after this season. I can see all them being paid the same Rnh Hall Eberle and Yakupov as well as Schultz if he steps up on defence and continues his offensive game. That way they all will be content and non resentfull of each other jmo.
 

McQuixote

Registered User
Jan 27, 2006
4,480
0
Edmonton, AB
@ JonQuixote Yakupov will be a fast and easy signing for what he is worth , they will not play chicken with him and will try and extend him after this season. I can see all them being paid the same Rnh Hall Eberle and Yakupov as well as Schultz if he steps up on defence and continues his offensive game. That way they all will be content and non resentfull of each other jmo.

I hope you're right, but that's best case scenario. The Hall contract is really kind of a sweetheart deal. I can certainly see RNH signing a similar one, as he has a lot of incentive to lock in due to his injury history, his disappointing sophomore year and the closer time-frame between the two contracts. I don't see Yakupov as having a similar incentive, and there could be up to 3 years between the signings, meaning that the Hall "standard" becomes somewhat (or significantly) obsolete.

The new CBA is going to have a real impact on the dollar figures that we see as fans too. Our paradigms are going to have to shift.
 

OiledUp

Registered User
Sep 17, 2011
2,235
1,535
This is not really a worry as long as the contracts are tradable. If the players are so good that they can get paid big money, then they are good enough to get you a good return as long as you have them on a good contract.

If Yakupov explodes out of the gates next year we might have to pay him more than 7 m but at the same time considering Nuges not so good season plus injury concerns there's a good chance he might not command 6 m.

I think the bar is set at 6m, if someone is to ask for more they're going to have to play at an incredible level and that's actually a good thing. I think we'll be fine. I'm more concerned if the big five don't push the cap.
 

Halibut

Registered User
Jul 24, 2010
4,377
0
The cap rises virtually every year, unless some artificial factor kicks in. And even if for some reason it doesn't go up in 2014, then it will rise in 2015. It is not speculation, it is reality as informed by history and awareness of the NHL's economics. And even if you don't know it, Yakupov and his representatives do.


Even if the cap goes up from where it's at now it's most likely going to be lower then where it was when Hall and Eberle signed, because you know all that lockout stuff. That should mean a similar dollar figure should be about right given that he continues to perform like he did near the end of the year.
 

KlimasLoveChild

Registered User
Feb 25, 2012
2,922
570


The hypothetical is this world you seem to have created where there is a paradigm shift that is so dramatic in 2 short years it will result in a salary for Yak that is mind blowing.... Your words...:amazed:.....I think I pointed out how you are dead wrong in the first part of my previous post but you seemed to have glossed right over it in an effort to continue with your narrative. In any event I neither have the time nor the interest to continue this discourse. I'll be here when he signs to point this out again. Until that time, good day to you.
 
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Philly85*

I Ain't Even Mad
Mar 28, 2009
15,845
3
If Nuge puts up another season like last year he will be lucky to get half of what Hall got.

Well.. not really. but I could see 3.5-4 mil on a 2 or 3 year deal.

Man, that would have to be one of the worst second contracts (not for the Oilers, although maybe to some extent, but for the player rather) for a first overall pic in recent memory, no?

And of course the Oilers could afford to keep all 5 guys, but the question is should they if they want (need) to address needs whether it be their depth, team chemistry in terms of building a balanced roster and having wiggle room, etc.
 

Soundwave

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
72,159
27,861
On an eventual $70+ million dollar cap you can pay all of Hall/Eberle/Schultz/RNH/Yakupov $6 million per and still have a ton of cap room left to fill out the roster as most of your top six and your top offensive d-man are locked in with more than half of the cap remaining.
 

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