I don't understand these numbers at all.
A business's value is related to revenue; the multiple, the number by which you multiply revenue to get that value, varies with the business -- its projected future revenue, whether it has a competitive moat, etc. The multiple also usually scales -- the bigger the gross sales, the higher the multiple. So many factors affect the multiple that it becomes a bit of a fudge factor.
In this situation -- teams all in the same league -- you would think that the only factors that would vary between teams, causing them to have a different multiple, would be the projected trend for revenue for that team in particular (so if a team had a bright future likely to attract bandwagoners, was in a growing market, etc) and that scaling factor.
So why would Toronto have a multiple of 10, and Carolina a multiple of only 4.7? That's silly.
If I had Excel on this computer I think I could bang something out that would make more sense -- I'd have columns for team, 2022-2023 revenue, "future team success score", "market demographic score", scaling factor (a function of revenue), multiple (a function of those two scores and the scaling factor), and valuation (product of revenue and multiple.)
If we guess that 10 is a good multiple for Toronto, I'd think that Carolina (with younger stars, more success lately, likely to have way more success for the next several years) would have a better future team success score. I'd have to look up the numbers but I'm going to guess that the population of the Durham metro area is growing faster than Toronto, so Carolina would have a higher score there too. So maybe Carolina's multiple would be around 12. I don't think these factors would cause huge variations between teams in the same league -- I doubt that any team would merit a multiple as low as 4.7.
Detroit also has a better team future than aging Toronto, but I'd guess Detroit's market is actually shrinking a bit, so maybe Detroit would have a multiple of 8.
So I'd guess that if Toronto is worth $2.8B, then Carolina would be worth $2.1B, and Detroit would be worth $1.6B.
And that chart up there really isn't worth much at all.
Ideally though we'd want to consider revenue trends year-to-year too.
watch the wings play in other teams rinks and you'll see how well liked the wings are. They sell out. They have the best tv ratings. And they sure as hell wouldn't sell that team for less than 2billion. Not a chance. Not if Ottawa is worth nearly a billion.
www.sportsmediawatch.com
