OT: NHL Statement on Russia V Ukraine War

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

MOD-Please try to keep all Russia vs. Ukraine war topics in this thread. This is NOT a thread about other wars. This is about the current war and anything pertaining to how each side might conduct themselves in war. Anyone that does not follow this will get a warning and thread ban.

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[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Right now, for Putin, the cruelty is the point.



If supplies from NATO countries are forcibly halted or attacked by Belarus, I wonder if that could be considered an act of war.

Assuming Belarus also allows Russian tactical nuclear weapons onto its soil, perhaps the U.S. can do a bit of sabre-rattling itself: ask if Poland would mind carrying the a few of the "Mother of All Bombs". At this point, I can't see any way for NATO to not escalate a bit as well (unless Putin actually deescalates, which is unlikely).

Terrible times.

 

[soothsayer]

Right now, for Putin, the cruelty is the point.



If supplies from NATO countries are forcibly halted or attacked by Belarus, I wonder if that could be considered an act of war.

Assuming Belarus also allows Russian tactical nuclear weapons onto its soil, perhaps the U.S. can do a bit of sabre-rattling itself: ask if Poland would mind carrying the a few of the "Mother of All Bombs". At this point, I can't see any way for NATO to not escalate a bit as well (unless Putin actually deescalates, which is unlikely).

Terrible times.

NATO can't impose itself on Belarusian territory, but supplies can run through Poland, Slovakia, and elsewhere (not Hungary). If Belarus attacks NATO supplies in consenting territories, then it's night-night for Belarus.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Hahahahaha

f*** you Putin!

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

@Bryanbryoil is it ok instead of dominating the OT thread I can open up a Ukrainian War thread where updates on the war can be posted for those interested and the OT can remain the nice light hearted place it used to be before Putin went insane?

 

[Bryanbryoil]

@Bryanbryoil is it ok instead of dominating the OT thread I can open up a Ukrainian War thread where updates on the war can be posted for those interested and the OT can remain the nice light hearted place it used to be before Putin went insane?

Have at it!

 

[McDoused]

Hard not to get political in a thread like this.

As someone who comes from Ukrainian heritage it makes my heart break seeing what Ukrainians are going through. Every time I see a child ripped away from their parents I want to cry. This has to be the greatest tradegy I've witnessed in my lifetime and I'm scared that it's only going to get worse.

Having said that, I cant help but feel for the Russians who clearly want no part of it. I couldnt imagine being your average joe in Russia right now afraid to speak out against Tyranny only be to forced into unmarked vans.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

f***OFFPUTIN fan chant

LOL

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Translated :
+70 planes for the Ukr army!
Our partners are handing us MiG-29s and Su-25s, and if necessary, they will be able to be based on Polish airfields from which Ukr pilots will perform combat missions.
Bulgaria (MiG-29) -16 pcs
Bulgaria (Su-25) -14 pcs
Poland (Mig-29) -28 pcs
Slovakia (Mig-29) -12 pcs
—————————————-
If they are based in Eastern Poland, Russia will see Poland as a viable military target.

Another small daily escalation of where this may be heading.

See below - the accuracy of Russian “guided munitions” lolol These were Iskander missile strikes that all missed the runway!

 

[BlackDogg]

Did ovi change his avatars yet?

 

[Tyrolean]

This is very sad and frightening. I only hope it ends soon and there is no nuclear war.

 

[MoontoScott]

Hard not to get political in a thread like this.

As someone who comes from Ukrainian heritage it makes my heart break seeing what Ukrainians are going through. Every time I see a child ripped away from their parents I want to cry. This has to be the greatest tradegy I've witnessed in my lifetime and I'm scared that it's only going to get worse.

Having said that, I cant help but feel for the Russians who clearly want no part of it. I couldnt imagine being your average joe in Russia right now afraid to speak out against Tyranny only be to forced into unmarked vans.

I am from the same heritage (just on my Dad's side) and I clearly understand what you are saying here.

I too feel for those Russian boys in those tanks who want nothing to do with Putin's war. They are as much a victim of this monster as the Ukrainian boys are.

I don't know if you heard that tape tonight of the Russian 19 year old crying out for his mother just before he was killed in that tank.

All I can say is devastating and heart breaking and I fear that the worst is yet to come. Hopefully I am wrong.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Russia going for overwhelming numbers and will try to encircle Kiev in the coming days. I hope this column is getting hit incessantly and those Byelorussians take it on the chin. But this doesn’t look good long term.

Russia is also moving tens of thousands of troops in from Eastern Russia.

A-10 drivers in the USA would have a permanent boner with a target like that.

 

[iCanada]

Hard not to get political in a thread like this.

As someone who comes from Ukrainian heritage it makes my heart break seeing what Ukrainians are going through. Every time I see a child ripped away from their parents I want to cry. This has to be the greatest tradegy I've witnessed in my lifetime and I'm scared that it's only going to get worse.

Having said that, I cant help but feel for the Russians who clearly want no part of it. I couldnt imagine being your average joe in Russia right now afraid to speak out against Tyranny only be to forced into unmarked vans.

Yeah. As a Ukrainian Canadian myself, I feel much the same way.

Only thing keeping me going right now is booze and all of the people helping. The west's response the this crisis I think was very well managed; from the previous 8 years training and arming the Ukrainian military, to the masterful unprecedented release of classified military Intel starting ahead of and thwarting Putin's narrative, to the unprecedentedly harsh sanctions placed on Russia by the entire world in lock step.

Putin needs this to be quick and dirty and it won't be. The Ukrainian military is putting up stiff resistance and it's already taken far more in resources and currency than Russia was willing to spend. Furthermore, Ukrainian people have had a taste of freedom and aren't interested in being a part of Russia or its low quality of life. Best case they can hope for is a military occupation similar to NATOs in Afghanistan... and that would end similarly with a free Ukraine the moment that Russia loosens its grip. Thing is, Russia can't afford to keep up this war effort for long, and even if they get the Ukrainian ports they desire, they won't do them a lot of good if no one is trading with them.

Even Switzerland, Cuba, and Monaco, traditionally neutral tax havens are sanctioning Russia. And these sanctions are hitting Russia hard; they're utilizing every trick in the book to minimize the devaluation of the Ruble and the Run on the Banks, and they're failing. Interest rates are up 20% and are being placed retroactively on all lending, the ruble has tanked from 62 to a USD to over 100 to a USD. The Russian people will be hurt in the short term, but the pressure being put on Putin to end this madness or face wide civil unrest is incredible. To put it in perspective the costs to service say a mortgage have gone up 10 fold; in my low value home that would be an extra $1900 a month. The change in currency means a $400 grocery bill is now $800 dollars, and Russian banks are on the verge of collapse.

Speaking from my own perspective as a relatively well off professional as a Canadian who already on average has more purchasing power than Russians... I wouldn't be able to balance my budget in those conditions. And that's not even considering increased utility costs or other ancillary costs. Russian people won't be able to either. To quote a famous Russian; "any society is only three missed meals away from complete and utter chaos."

Three meals will be missed, and they'll be missed soon.

Meanwhile Russians are already protesting this war hard, and the general approval of Putin in Russia is based on his carefully crafted image of him being a mastermind improving the standing of Russia and life for Russian people. That viewpoint is impossible to hold at the moment.

It only gets more dire; it's been well known for millenia that you need to give your people bread and circuses in order to keep them apeased... they likely aren't getting enough bread and they've been cut off from most of their circuses as well. Steam cut off Russian access to their servers (Russia is the largest user due to DotA / CS:GO), the IIHF kicked them out, FIFA kicked them out, Hollywood is blocking all new releases... People will be bored and hungry with no outlet.

It gets more dire as you note that by and large many Oligarchs are voicing their displeasure publicly. The oligarchy in Russia is a pack of wolves that will ruthlessly cut out any leader not serving their needs; in fact 9/12 of Russian regime changes going back to the first Tsar have been through this class becoming displeased.

There is still a lot of uncertainty, fear, and losses ultimately that will come. But it helps me rest a little easier knowing there is no real winning scenario here for Russia.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Fiona Hill knows Putin better than anyone.

“He would use nukes.”

This is a MUST READ article.

 

[soothsayer]

Beaten to the punch!

 

[OilerTitanFan]

Fiona Hill knows Putin better than anyone.

“He would use nukes.”

Sure he would. They already got Ukraine in their hands. Why would he be stupid enough to punch the button,

 

[iCanada]

Yeah. As a Ukrainian Canadian myself, I feel much the same way.

Only thing keeping me going right now is booze and all of the people helping. The west's response the this crisis I think was very well managed; from the previous 8 years training and arming the Ukrainian military, to the masterful unprecedented release of classified military Intel starting ahead of and thwarting Putin's narrative, to the unprecedentedly harsh sanctions placed on Russia by the entire world in lock step.

Putin needs this to be quick and dirty and it won't be. The Ukrainian military is putting up stiff resistance and it's already taken far more in resources and currency than Russia was willing to spend. Furthermore, Ukrainian people have had a taste of freedom and aren't interested in being a part of Russia or its low quality of life. Best case they can hope for is a military occupation similar to NATOs in Afghanistan... and that would end similarly with a free Ukraine the moment that Russia loosens its grip. Thing is, Russia can't afford to keep up this war effort for long, and even if they get the Ukrainian ports they desire, they won't do them a lot of good if no one is trading with them.

Even Switzerland, Cuba, and Monaco, traditionally neutral tax havens are sanctioning Russia. And these sanctions are hitting Russia hard; they're utilizing every trick in the book to minimize the devaluation of the Ruble and the Run on the Banks, and they're failing. Interest rates are up 20% and are being placed retroactively on all lending, the ruble has tanked from 62 to a USD to over 100 to a USD. The Russian people will be hurt in the short term, but the pressure being put on Putin to end this madness or face wide civil unrest is incredible. To put it in perspective the costs to service say a mortgage have gone up 10 fold; in my low value home that would be an extra $1900 a month. The change in currency means a $400 grocery bill is now $800 dollars, and Russian banks are on the verge of collapse.

Speaking from my own perspective as a relatively well off professional as a Canadian who already on average has more purchasing power than Russians... I wouldn't be able to balance my budget in those conditions. And that's not even considering increased utility costs or other ancillary costs. Russian people won't be able to either. To quote a famous Russian; "any society is only three missed meals away from complete and utter chaos."

Three meals will be missed, and they'll be missed soon.

Meanwhile Russians are already protesting this war hard, and the general approval of Putin in Russia is based on his carefully crafted image of him being a mastermind improving the standing of Russia and life for Russian people. That viewpoint is impossible to hold at the moment.

It only gets more dire; it's been well known for millenia that you need to give your people bread and circuses in order to keep them apeased... they likely aren't getting enough bread and they've been cut off from most of their circuses as well. Steam cut off Russian access to their servers (Russia is the largest user due to DotA / CS:GO), the IIHF kicked them out, FIFA kicked them out, Hollywood is blocking all new releases... People will be bored and hungry with no outlet.

It gets more dire as you note that by and large many Oligarchs are voicing their displeasure publicly. The oligarchy in Russia is a pack of wolves that will ruthlessly cut out any leader not serving their needs; in fact 9/12 of Russian regime changes going back to the first Tsar have been through this class becoming displeased.

There is still a lot of uncertainty, fear, and losses ultimately that will come. But it helps me rest a little easier knowing there is no real winning scenario here for Russia.

Putin is frustrated, lashing out at his inner circle, report says

Case in point. Putin is feeling the heat right now.

Some other sources for things I noted in the post above as well:
Russian people may not be able to withstand "economic siege," experts say - CBS News

https://www.clarksvillian.com/post/russia-china-collapse-balkanization-ccp

Top Russian Oligarchs Are Speaking Out Against the War in Ukraine

More Russian Billionaires Speak Out Against Putin’s War On Ukraine

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian...-out-across-russia-despite-attempts-to-stifle

Ukraine crisis: Russia has failed to take any of its major objectives, lost 450 personnel and made 'limited progress', Ministry of Defence says

Moscow newspaper condemns Putin over invasion: 'Russia. Bombs. Ukraine.'

More than 150 senior Russian officials sign open letter condemning Putin's invasion of Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

Putin ‘furious’ Ukraine invasion hasn’t been ‘easy,’ EU official says, citing intel report

 

[iCanada]

Fiona Hill knows Putin better than anyone.

“He would use nukes.”

This is a MUST READ article.

Beaten to the punch!

Worth noting that while Putin had clearly lost the plot and may order the use of Nukes, it's not unilaterally his decision.

MAD is a pretty powerful incentive for everyone involved to keep their cool.

Putin doesn't personally go and launch them from silos. They have a chain of command to determine these things and the likelihood that all of the people on that chain are also interested in killing themselves is low.

Furthermore... not likely Oligarchs / the FSB would stand idely by and let Putin fire / replace that entire chain of command.

In the past both sides have ordered Nuclear attacks at times, and the chain of command has not executed them.

While obviously it's a concern to be managed by the appropriate powers that be, I don't think there is any value for us as laymen being afraid of it. We have no control, so I think it's better for us to just go on living our lives.