MathMan
Registered User
- Jan 20, 2006
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How does that sentence make any sense?? Argh
They could have played beyond their ability, or other teams may have improved more than they did, or both.
How does that sentence make any sense?? Argh
Yeah, let's compare two different season, and while we're at it, let's take a season which has next to no statistical validity anymore and the reasons for bad performance are known.
BTW, Emery's stats from the preseason. 0.943 SV% and 1.76 GAA. And he looks very very good.
Edit: I calculated Birons for compairon. He only played three preseason games as far as I could find (Emery played five). His stats are 0.846 SV% and 2.39 GAA
Anything that Philadelphia may gain on defense with the acquisition of Pronger and in the development of Coburn, Carle and Parent, may now be dashed on wrecking the decent goaltending tandem they had in place.
Look, I don't think the Leafs will be a powerhouse. I hope they make the playoffs but it is FAR from a sure thing. But honestly, HONESTLY does anyone think they will finish as low as 29th in the league?!? They finished 7th worst last year, and they have improved on that team...
Um. You realize, of course, that they could conceivably offset that issue by figuring ice time production into their predictions?Vukota is just an experiment and I doubt it will ever fly like it's counterpart that predicts baseball numbers. The flaw with these computer generated numbers is that mediocre players in top-6 roles will have inflated numbers based on ice-time & it's near impossible for it to predict how players perform in that role. Playing time on offense is not a factor in Baseball and individual numbers are much easier to predict as baseball is a game solely based on numbers and individual match-ups.
I found this while reading some of the team previews from ESPN.
Rankings
As of now, it isn't completed, but some interesting rankings and probably worth some cannon fodder on this board.
Pretty ironic use of the facepalm there, champ. For prediction purposes, the comparison isn't "Emery Now vs Biron Now", it's "Emery Now vs Biron Then". It takes a pretty wild optimism to believe that the safe money is on a historically average goalie with crazy problems (who's been out of the NHL for a year) being better than Biron was last year.
There are a number of US collegiate forwards on the reserve list, such as Tyler Bozak, Christian Hanson, Chad Rau and Viktor Stalberg who are all between 21 and 23 years old, but had unimpressive numbers last year. None of them stand out as having a particularly bright future
Thanks for the laugh
They could have had Ryan Ellis if they wanted skill, of course, but the same could be said of any team drafting from #3 to #10.
Name P Age GP
Jonas Gustavsson G 25 35.0
Joey MacDonald G 29 36.2
Vesa Toskala G 32 37.4
The Leafs will apparently play 108.6 games this season. Factoring in some OT, that will be one hell of a cup run then
(Interestingly, the Red Wings goalies will only play a total of 47.6 games this year, and if my computations are correct, the Leafs' opponents will score roughly 20 own goals.)
(1) In some games, more than one goaltender plays.
(2) Sometimes, goaltenders get traded.
He didn't factor in Michalek or Cheechoo in his analysis, from what I saw
I guess we're underdogs again...
Gonna get a lot of resistance to anything numbers-based around here.
Puck Prospectus is a sister site to Baseball Prospectus, whose PECOTA Projections have consistently outstripped Pejorative Slur pundits for the past few years. (Please spare us the "hockey's different from baseball!" pleading for now--we know.) I think the big problem with the VUKOTA Projections is that it's a fairly new system. BP has spent several years fine-tuning their shizz...I'm not sure PP is at that point.
Gonna get a lot of resistance to anything numbers-based around here.
Puck Prospectus is a sister site to Baseball Prospectus, whose PECOTA Projections have consistently outstripped Pejorative Slur pundits for the past few years. (Please spare us the "hockey's different from baseball!" pleading for now--we know.) I think the big problem with the VUKOTA Projections is that it's a fairly new system. BP has spent several years fine-tuning their shizz...I'm not sure PP is at that point.
You're welcome, but I'm going to have to take a guess at which part is supposed to be amusing, since I'm really not sure.There are a number of US collegiate forwards on the reserve list, such as Tyler Bozak, Christian Hanson, Chad Rau and Viktor Stalberg who are all between 21 and 23 years old, but had unimpressive numbers last year. None of them stand out as having a particularly bright future
Thanks for the laugh
And why should we care about statistical prediction in hockey? We can tell with our eyes alone that talent bears out.