NFL: NFC playoff picture

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Division leaders
1. ARZ 6-0
2. TB 5-1
3. GB 5-1
4. DAL 5-1

Wild Cards
5. LAR 5-1
6. NO 3-2
7. MIN 3-3

IN THE HUNT
CHI 3-3
CAR 3-3
SF 2-3
ATL 2-3
WFT 2-4
PHI 2-4
SEA 2-4

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[JimmyApples]

Cardinals vs Cowboys - Jan 2nd @ Jerry World might be an extremely important game

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Cardinals vs Cowboys - Jan 2nd @ Jerry World might be an extremely important game

I'll take the over.

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 7:
1. Arizona - 7-0
2. Tampa Bay - 6-1 (Holds Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Green Bay (.437 - .389)
3. Green Bay - 6-1
4. Dallas - 5-1
5. LA Rams - 6-1
6. New Orleans - 4-2
7. Minnesota - 3-3 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Atlanta)
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8. Atlanta - 3-3
9. Chicago - 3-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Carolina)
10. Carolina - 3-4
11. San Francisco - 2-4
12. Washington - 2-5 (Holds Division record tiebreaker over Philadelphia and the NY Giants) (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over Seattle)
13. Philadelphia - 2-5 (Holds Division record tiebreaker over NY Giants) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle)
14. NY Giants - 2-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle)
15. Seattle - 2-5
16. Detroit - 0-7

CONTROL OF DESTINY: Note: Only the highest level (among 1st round bye, division title, and making the playoffs) a team controls their own destiny for will be listed here - if a team controls their own destiny for the first round bye, they also control their own destiny to make the playoffs and win their division). A team controls their own destiny if they obtain a certain spot 100% of the time if they win every game for the rest of the year.

- Arizona controls their own destiny for the 1st round bye
- Tampa Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC South.
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC North.
- Dallas controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- New Orleans controls their own destiny for the NFC South.
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for the NFC North.
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for a playoff birth.
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for a playoff birth.
- Chicago controls their own destiny for a playoff birth
- Carolina controls their own destiny for a playoff birth
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a playoff birth

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 8:
- Arizona will lose control of their own destiny for the 1st round bye with a loss
- Green Bay will gain control of their own destiny for the 1st round bye with a win, TB loss, and DAL loss
- New Orleans will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss
- Minnesota will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a loss and a GB win
- The LA Rams will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a win and an ARI loss
- Atlanta will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a win and a TB loss
- Carolina will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a win and a TB loss
- Chicago will lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a CAR win
- Carolina will lose control of their own destiny with a loss
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a CAR win

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 8.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

- Dallas controls their own destiny for the NFC West

Jesus, they really are America's Team!

 

[misterchainsaw]

Jesus, they really are America's Team!

DOH! Not like being in the East makes any more sense geographically

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 8:
1. Green Bay - 7-1 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Arizona
2. Arizona - 7-1 (Holds head to head tiebreaker over the LA Rams)
3. Dallas - 6-1
4. Tampa Bay - 6-2
5. LA Rams - 7-1
6. New Orleans - 5-2
7. Carolina - 4-4
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8. Minnesota - 3-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over San Francisco and Atlanta)
9. San Francisco - 3-4 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Atlanta)
10. Atlanta - 3-4
11. Philadelphia - 3-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle and Chicago)
12. Seattle - 3-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Chicago)
13. Chicago - 3-5
14. Washington - 2-6 (Holds division record tiebreaker over the NY Giants)
15. NY Giants - 2-6
16. Detroit - 0-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- NOBODY controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC North.
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West.
- Dallas controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- Tampa Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC South.
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- New Orleans controls their own destiny for the NFC South.
- Carolina controls their own destiny for a playoff birth
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a playoff birth.
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a playoff birth
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for a playoff birth.


POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 9:
- Green Bay will control their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a DAL loss
- Arizona will control their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a GB loss
- Dallas will control their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and an LA Ram loss
- The LA Rams will control their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a DAL loss
- Carolina will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a win and a NO loss
- Carolina will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss and either a PHI or CHI win
- Minnesota will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss and either an ATL win or a CAR win
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss and a NO win
- Atlanta will lose control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a loss
- Seattle will gain control of their own destiny for a playoff birth with a win, ATL loss, PHI loss, and a DAL or ARI loss

NO CLINCHING OR ELIMINATION SCENARIOS IN WEEK 9.

Strange that no one controls their own destiny for the #1 seed in either conference. All comes down to tiebreakers, which are fluid thanks to different H2H results between the teams. If the Lions were playing this week, we could have had our first elimination scenario (from first round bye contention), but alas that will have to wait a week. Check out this masterpiece of a final result (Lions getting the #1 seed despite the worst possible results for that outcome in this weeks games.)

 

[Halladay]

Impressive win for Arizona and terrible loss for Dallas. Also Rodgers not playing this game probably cost Green Bay any chance of a bye.

 

[Troy McClure]

This past week was the first where the sports radio I listen to to kill time started talking playoff scenarios, and it really drove home how much the extra game has confused the way we’ve become so accustomed to talking about football because we all have concrete ideas of what 12-4, 10-6, 7-9, etc. teams are. These numbers are second nature to how we talk about NFL teams. One extra game shouldn’t change things much, but suddenly we have to account for it when quickly talking about where things are going.

 

[GKJ]

Impressive win for Arizona and terrible loss for Dallas. Also Rodgers not playing this game probably cost Green Bay any chance of a bye.

No it didn’t, and even if it did, Green Bay had the bye last year and lost to a team that played its 5th road game in 6 weeks, so it really doesn’t matter.

 

[Halladay]

No it didn’t, and even if it did, Green Bay had the bye last year and lost to a team that played its 5th road game in 6 weeks, so it really doesn’t matter.

Ehh, we are going to disagree about a bye not potentially mattering. Though yesterday was an example of how unpredictable this league can be.

 

[HisIceness]

You can cross Carolina off that list, they stunk up the joint yesterday and have looked like shit since the Dallas game.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Thanks to refs for most part the Bears faint playoff hopes effectively just ended

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I don't know, the Falcons are the 7th seed at 4-4...I am quite confident 8-9 will be enough to get the last WC in the NFC. Bears still face the Vikes twice, Lions, Giants and Seahawks. I wouldn't say it's over with Fields playing this well.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Thanks to refs for most part the Bears faint playoff hopes effectively just ended

Honestly, that may be for the best. If they somehow made the PO's there's no way they make some badly needed FO changes, now at least there's a chance.

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 9:
1. Arizona - 8-1
2. Green Bay - 7-2
3. Tampa Bay - 6-2 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over Dallas)
4. Dallas - 6-2
5. LA Rams - 7-2
6. New Orleans - 5-3
7. Atlanta - 4-4
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Carolina - 4-5
9. Minnesota - 3-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle)
10. Seattle - 3-5 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over San Francisco)
11. San Francisco - 3-5
12. Philadelphia - 3-6 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over the NY Giants) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Chicago)
13. NY Giants - 3-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Chicago)
14. Chicago - 3-6
15. Washington - 2-6
16. Detroit - 0-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC North.
- Tampa Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Dallas controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- New Orleans controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for a wild card playoff birth.
- Carolina controls their own destiny for a wild card playoff birth.
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a wild card playoff birth

POTENTIAL CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 10:
- Arizona will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a GB or TB win.
- Green Bay will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win, TB loss, and DAL loss.
- The LA Rams will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and DAL loss.
- The LA Rams will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss.
- New Orleans will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss and a TB win.
- Carolina will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a win and a TB loss
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC North with a win and a GB loss.
- Atlanta will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss, TB win, NO win, and either a MIN or SEA win.
- Carolina will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss.
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss and either a MIN or SEA win.
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a win and any of an ATL, LAR, TB, or NO loss.
- Seattle will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a win and either (1)LAR loss AND ARI loss or (2)TB, ATL, OR NO loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 10
- Detroit is eliminated from first round bye consideration with a loss and either an ARI, GB, or LAR win

 

[GKJ]

I don't know, the Falcons are the 7th seed at 4-4...I am quite confident 8-9 will be enough to get the last WC in the NFC. Bears still face the Vikes twice, Lions, Giants and Seahawks. I wouldn't say it's over with Fields playing this well.

You also have the Saints in front of them who don't have a quarterback.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

After 10 weeks:

Division leaders
1. GB 8-2
2. ARZ 8-2
3. DAL 7-2
4. TB 6-3

Wild Cards
5. LAR 7-3
6. NO 5-4
7. CAR 5-5

IN THE HUNT
MIN 4-5
SF 4-5
ATL 4-5
PHI 4-6
WFT 3-6
NYG 3-6
CHI 3-6

 

[JimmyApples]

Rams @ Packers on November 28th is going to be huge. Rams coming off a bye not wanting to lose 3 in a row…I can see an LA win.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Rams @ Packers on November 28th is going to be huge. Rams coming off a bye not wanting to lose 3 in a row…I can see an LA win.

i agree but i think the darnold ghosts will be out for stafford with him playing rodgers again

 

[JimmyApples]

i agree but i think the darnold ghosts will be out for stafford with him playing rodgers again

Stafford definitely needs to get his mental game right

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Stafford definitely needs to get his mental game right

i'll preface this with saying i am by no means a stafford fan and i like that the real stafford is coming to the forefront a little bit here.

i will concede the bucs game, he played very well against brady and the bucs, nice job by him. but the two other big time opponents they have played he layed an egg and the cardinals and titans games were never close and they just got manhandled by a 49ers team that will probably have 7-9 wins. i know the lions are awful but he has never been a winner, his last year at georgia was very underwhelming given the tools he had, the one year the lions got it right and went 11-5, he scored a grand total of 3 points in the second half and lost. here in detroit we are well aware of his record against winning teams is 8-67 and is now 9-69. if stafford doesn't play well against green bay coming out of the bye i would have some concern about him winning a playoff game moving forward. he can sort of fix the narrative if he plays well against green bay, arizona, and baltimore but if he doesn't play well in those games, as a rams fan i would be concerned about the playoffs

 

[misterchainsaw]

Dallas takes control of their own destiny for the top seed this week. Somehow I missed this chance last week in the changes section. It required the Rams, Cards, and Bucs to lose - Dallas plays Arizona later in the year so the only team that could match them at 15-2 is Green Bay - and they win the tiebreaker there via common games, as they would have beaten both teams Green Bay lost to. Also of note - only one tiebreaker is used in the top 7 of the NFC, and that's GB over ARI via H2H at the very top. Certainly helped by differing amounts of games played, but a little wild nonetheless.

Also, the middle of this conference is a cluster****. So many different tiebreaker scenarios with teams 7 through 15 on 5 or 6 losses. It's very interesting that even if all the 5 loss teams lost this week and all the 6 loss teams won, the 5 loss teams would still be in a better situation going forward due to who those teams play and better pre-exisiting tiebreaking situations.

Detroit is the first team eliminated from #1 seed contention, as LA plays both the Packers and Cardinals later in the year, forcing one of those 3 teams to 9 wins. Yes, a tie in one of those games could make it so technically Detroit could nab the #1 seed in a tiebreaker at 8-8-1, but I don't care. This all is done ignoring the possibility of ties in future games, and as I've said before, I'm not opening that Pandora's Box.

AFTER WEEK 10: (a-eliminated from #1 seed contention)
1. Green Bay - 8-2 (Owns H2H tiebreaker vs. Arizona)
2. Arizona - 8-2
3. Dallas - 7-2
4. Tampa Bay - 6-3
5. LA Rams - 7-3
6. New Orleans - 5-4
7. Carolina - 5-5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. Minnesota - 4-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over San Francisco and Atlanta)
9. San Francisco - 4-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Atlanta)
10. Atlanta - 4-5
11. Philadelphia - 4-6
12. Washington - 3-6 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over NY Giants) (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle and Chicago)
13. NY Giants - 3-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle and Chicago)
14. Seattle - 3-6 (Holds common games tiebreaker over Chicago)
15. Chicago - 3-6
16. a-Detroit - 0-8-1

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Dallas controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC North.
- Arizona controls their own destiny for the NFC West
- Tampa Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- New Orleans controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Carolina controls their own destiny for the NFC South.
- Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card playoff birth.
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a wild card playoff birth
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for a wild card playoff birth.


POTENTIAL CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 11:
- Dallas will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and either a GB win or a TB win.
- Arizona will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a GB loss.
- Green Bay will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a DAL loss.
- New Orleans will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss and a TB win.
- Carolina will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC South with a loss and either a TB or NO win.
- The LA Rams will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a ARI loss (LAR on a bye week)
- Carolina will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card birth with a loss and either a PHI win or a TB win.
- Minnesota will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card birth with a loss, TB win, NO win, and ATL win.
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card birth with a loss and either (1)a WSH win combined with a DAL, TB, or NO win or (2)a TB, CAR, and PHI win
- Atlanta will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card birth with a loss and either a PHI win or a TB win.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 11:
- Detroit is eliminated from NFC South contention with a loss or a GB win.

 

[Dr Salt]

Surprisingly according to ELO the highest stakes game of the NFC playoff race next week will be Philly vs New Orleans. Essentially Philly winning would give them a very good shot, them losing puts their season on life support. For New Orleans its knocking a team way down getting back up and having another crucial tiebreaker.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Division leaders
1. ARZ 9-2
2. GB 8-3
3. TB 7-3
4. DAL 7-3

Wild Cards
LAR 7-3
MIN 5-5
NO 5-5

IN THE HUNT
SF 5-5
PHI 5-6
CAR 5-6
WFT 4-6
ATL 4-6

7 teams for 2 WC spots. Kind of nuts.