Proposal: New Jersey Devils trades (Ottawa & Calgary)

[Golden_Jet]

Holy shit please use one ounce of reading comprehension I beg.

Lmao, it’s a stupid concept and comparison, yet you keep hammering it.

Your very entertaining, I’ll give you that, even though have no clue on hockey.

Ottawa would have ZERO interest in Meier btw.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Holy shit please use one ounce of reading comprehension I beg.

I am comparing Meier when he was traded to Brady Tkachuk now.

You know why? Because we have a REAL valuation of trade value at that point, from a real life trade.

So then, if you have the mental capacity to do so, you look back at Meier back then, and see WHY he was worth that much. And then you compare to tkachuk. Very similar, but Tkachuk holds more value. And so I increase from what was traded for meier to establish a valuation for Tkachuk.

Wayne Gretzky isn't even an NHLer now so clearly Brady Tkachuk's value is more than Wayne got. (To spell it out, this is an exaggeration to show that using current results to evaluate the trade value of something in the past is stupid, since nobody can tell the future, and so you can only use the information available at that time)


Also if Meier is overpaid at 8.8 mill, Brady Tkachuk is worth a LOT less than even I've been offering.

Because I've been valuing Brady Tkachuk as a 12 million dollar player

There is a difference. Meier at the time of trade was a RFA with a 10M qualifying offer. The Sharks were laden with aging veteran contracts and a team that was starting a rebuild. They had to trade Meier. SJ was a motivated seller.

Tkachuk has a longterm contract. The Sens don't have to, nor would they want to, trade Tkachuk/

Brady's value is way higher than what SJ got for Meier 2 x years ago. You have to take into consideration the other factors including Meier's contract status and SJ's predicament.

you already tried.


Anyway I want nothing to do with Brady, He's not what the Devils need and any cap space used for him would be better spent elsewhere.

You want nothing to do with Brady because you don't have the pieces to get him. You don't want to part with the cost to get him. And i get that.

But every GM wants a Brady Tkachuk on their team.

 

[dgibb10]

Lmao, it’s a stupid concept and comparison, yet you keep hammering it.

Your very entertaining, I’ll give you that, even though have no clue on hockey.

Ottawa would have ZERO interest in Meier btw.

2 players with identical PPGs with the same archetype (high shot volume power forward wingers).


Timo Meier is objectively the most similar player to Tkachuk that we have as a trade reference.

(no, just because they are brothers does not make 40+ goal 100 point Matthew comparable to 70 point Brady)


And once again you struggle with reading comprehension.

I was not offering Timo Meier to ottawa.

 

[dgibb10]

There is a difference. Meier at the time of trade was a RFA with a 10M qualifying offer. The Sharks were laden with aging veteran contracts and a team that was starting a rebuild. They had to trade Meier. SJ was a motivated seller.

Tkachuk has a longterm contract. The Sens don't have to, nor would they want to, trade Tkachuk/

Brady's value is way higher than what SJ got for Meier 2 x years ago. You have to take into consideration the other factors including Meier's contract status and SJ's predicament.


You want nothing to do with Brady because you don't have the pieces to get him. You don't want to part with the cost to get him. And i get that.

But every GM wants a Brady Tkachuk on their team.

Yes, all of which are factors I mentioned.

Brady Tkachuk will only be sold by a motivated seller. Unless Brady Tkachuk is actively on the market, no GMs will waste their time calling. If he is not on the market, then GMs will go elsewhere.

I mentioned the contract status (meier had arb rights which meant he was not getting 10 mill btw) as a point in Tkachuk's favour.
On the other hand, for a team that CAN resign meier, like was the case in NJD, you get 9 years of control instead of 4.

I have consistently approximated this value to be an additional 1st round pick, or for this case, the difference between 27th overall and 10th.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Yes, all of which are factors I mentioned.

Brady Tkachuk will only be sold by a motivated seller. Unless Brady Tkachuk is actively on the market, no GMs will waste their time calling. If he is not on the market, then GMs will go elsewhere.

I mentioned the contract status (meier had arb rights which meant he was not getting 10 mill btw) as a point in Tkachuk's favour.
On the other hand, for a team that CAN resign meier, like was the case in NJD, you get 9 years of control instead of 4.

I have consistently approximated this value to be an additional 1st round pick, or for this case, the difference between 27th overall and 10th.

1. Tkachuk's value (without contract considerations) is higher than Meier was 2 x years ago
2. With contract considerations, Tkachuk's value is massively higher than Timo's was.
3. I agree that the only way Brady is available is if he wants out, thereby lowering his value somewhat.

But given that 3) is not a current situation. Brady Tkachuk's value is massively higher than Timo's now or 2 x year's ago due to 1) and 2) above.

Logic.

Now if your premise is a fictitious scenario that Brady wants out of Ottawa and only wants to play in NJ, then i will agree that his value is not nearly as high as people are suggesting. But that's not living in reality. But i have learned that that is pretty much your M.O.

 

[dgibb10]

1. Tkachuk's value (without contract considerations) is higher than Meier was 2 x years ago
2. With contract considerations, Tkachuk's value is massively higher than Timo's was.
3. I agree that the only way Brady is available is if he wants out, thereby lowering his value somewhat.

But given that 3) is not a current situation. Brady Tkachuk's value is massively higher than Timo's now or 2 x year's ago due to 1) and 2) above.

Logic.

I agree somewhat with point 1 that Tkachuk's value is higher than Meier's (because of age)

I do not agree that the risk factor with Meier impacts value that much. It may scare off some buyers, but there were more than enough teams that Meier was willing to sign with to create the necessary bidding war.

That may be my perspective but Meier was able to be retained in NJD at a price that means he will be in NJD for 9 years and make 8.15 million dollars a year. Same AAV as Tkachuk has, with more term.

If you're a team Meier is willing to resign with, imo the contract situations were similar, arguably in favour of Meier due to added term. The risk element should be noted tho, and really depends on the front office team to team how much it impacts them.

If you're a team Meier won't resign with, obviously that takes you out of the running entirely outside of as a rental that you sell in the offseason.

I think adding a 1st is reasonable, and in line with all the biggest trades in the modern day.

There is a certain peak that trades rarely go beyond, because better players diminish their trade value as they demand bigger contracts.

 

[Xirik]

There is a difference. Meier at the time of trade was a RFA with a 10M qualifying offer. The Sharks were laden with aging veteran contracts and a team that was starting a rebuild. They had to trade Meier.

Tkachuk has a longterm contract. The Sens don't have to, nor would they want to, trade Tkachuk/

Brady's value is way higher than what SJ got for Meier 2 x years ago. You have to take into consideration the other factors including Meier's contract status and SJ's predicament.


You want nothing to do with Brady because you don't have the pieces to get him. You don't want to part with the cost to get him. And i get that.

But every GM wants a Brady Tkachuk on their team.

I don't think the Devils GM would want a extremely top heavy team that leads to having no depth and extending the Devils goalie problem.

The Leafs way doesn't seem to be working so why copy it?

It's a cap league and depth wins games.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I agree somewhat with point 1 that Tkachuk's value is higher than Meier's (because of age)

I do not agree that the risk factor with Meier impacts value that much. It may scare off some buyers, but there were more than enough teams that Meier was willing to sign with to create the necessary bidding war.

That may be my perspective but Meier was able to be retained in NJD at a price that means he will be in NJD for 9 years and make 8.15 million dollars a year. Same AAV as Tkachuk has, with more term.

If you're a team Meier is willing to resign with, imo the contract situations were similar, arguably in favour of Meier due to added term. The risk element should be noted tho, and really depends on the front office team to team how much it impacts them.

If you're a team Meier won't resign with, obviously that takes you out of the running entirely outside of as a rental that you sell in the offseason.

I think adding a 1st is reasonable, and in line with all the biggest trades in the modern day.

There is a certain peak that trades rarely go beyond, because better players diminish their trade value as they demand bigger contracts.

I assume you are referring to an additional 1st to the trade that netted Timo?

Even then its not nearly enough for reason 3 (The Sens are not motivated sellers). An offer would have to knock their socks off. It would also have to include an established star player.

I don't think the Devils GM would want a extremely top heavy team that leads to having no depth and extending the Devils goalie problem.

The Leafs way doesn't seem to be working so why copy it?

It's a cap league and depth wins games.

You can address depth by trading other players on your team to make capspace for Brady. But in reality, you would have to give up a star player (with high caphit) as a centerpiece in a trade for Brady. Ottawa would not be looking for a futures package. Any deal would have to be a crazy overpayment.

As such, yeah, the Devils are not a realistic candidate. The juice is not worth the squeeze.

 

[HBK27]

Holy crap is this thread exhausting.

And Meier was traded a little over a year ago, not "2 x years ago".

 

[dgibb10]

I assume you are referring to an additional 1st to the trade that netted Timo?

Even then its not nearly enough for reason 3 (The Sens are not motivated sellers). An offer would have to knock their socks off. It would also have to include an established star player.

I don't see teams going higher than multiple 1sts+top prospect. They rarely do.

I consistently agree that Tkachuk will not be on the market. BUT, if he is on the market, the offers will be the offers, and they either take the best one or don't trade him.

Based on comps, teams rarely go beyond a certain peak, and i doubt it would be much more than offered here.

If they want an established star back, we'd be leaning into the Matthew Tkachuk trade.

That was tougher because it was 2 rentals, and Matthew being much better.

But of available stars for NJD:

Bratt: I wouldn't make him available frankly, but it would be feasible in a near 1 for 1 scenario
Meier: would be a bad look to trade before NMC kicks in. Additionally getting older for the same archetype doesn't make sense for ottawa. I would add our top 10 1st to current meier tho.
Hamilton: he would not waive for ottawa, but fits their need for a RD. Again I would add our 2024 top 10 1st.

Trades involving established stars rarely occur because they can rarely make sense for both sides. The buying team generally doesn't want to give up their star, and the selling team generally is looking for pieces on a different timeline.

More likely we provide the assets, and ottawa can use said assets to attempt to acquire a star.

A Brady Tkachuk comp I'd propose:

Aaron Ekblad+Verhaeghe for Brady Tkachuk. No 1st because Matthew was significantly better

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I don't see teams going higher than multiple 1sts+top prospect. They rarely do.

I consistently agree that Tkachuk will not be on the market. BUT, if he is on the market, the offers will be the offers, and they either take the best one or don't trade him.

But he's not on the market. Therefore, the offers would have to be much higher. Or they don't trade him. The buyer is the motivated party here, not the seller.

You have to base it on the situation on the ground today and not on a fictitious scenario.

Sure, if he's on the market because he wants out, then his value will not be as high as Sens fans think. The Sens in that ficitious scenario would be motivated sellers. The same could be said for every NJD star player or any star player in the league.

 

[dgibb10]

But he's not on the market. Therefore, the offers would have to be much higher.

You have to base it on the situation on the ground today and not on a fictitious scenario.

Sure, if he's on the market because he wants out, then his value will not be as high as Sens fans think. The same could be said for every NJD star player or any star player in the league.

He's not on the market: Therefore, nobody will be making offers.

Any high end asset should be priced as if they are for sale in terms of discussions like this.

I am saying:

IF Brady Tkachuk were to happen to become available for sale, prices would fall in line with this

IF Brady Tkachuk is not for sale, then he will not get traded.

There are 2 Questions:

1: Is Brady Tkachuk for sale:
No

2: How much would Brady Tkachuk return if put on the market:
then you get into the comps

There is not one "unavailable price" and a second, lower "available price":

 

[Golden_Jet]

2 players with identical PPGs with the same archetype (high shot volume power forward wingers).


Timo Meier is objectively the most similar player to Tkachuk that we have as a trade reference.

(no, just because they are brothers does not make 40+ goal 100 point Matthew comparable to 70 point Brady)


And once again you struggle with reading comprehension.

I was not offering Timo Meier to ottawa.

Brady has more goals than Matthew, after their first 6 seasons each.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He's not on the market: Therefore, nobody will be making offers.

Any high end asset should be priced as if they are for sale in terms of discussions like this.

I am saying:

IF Brady Tkachuk were to happen to become available for sale, prices would fall in line with this

IF Brady Tkachuk is not for sale, then he will not get traded.

There are 2 Questions:

1: Is Brady Tkachuk for sale:
No

2: How much would Brady Tkachuk return if put on the market:
then you get into the comps

There is not one "unavailable price" and a second, lower "available price":

All players can be traded if the offer is high enough. Gretzky was traded.

Is he on the market? No. If an offer was made that the Sens could not turn down, then he is on the market. Ergo, his value is massively high.

There is always a price. That's business 101 and hockey is a business.

Meanwhile, Timo Meier's value has plummeted since the trade...

 

[Xirik]

I assume you are referring to an additional 1st to the trade that netted Timo?

Even then its not nearly enough for reason 3 (The Sens are not motivated sellers). An offer would have to knock their socks off. It would also have to include an established star player.


You can address depth by trading other players on your team to make capspace for Brady. But in reality, you would have to give up a star player (with high caphit) as a centerpiece in a trade for Brady. Ottawa would not be looking for a futures package. Any deal would have to be a crazy overpayment.

As such, yeah, the Devils are not a realistic candidate. The juice is not worth the squeeze.

Exactly any Star player the Devils offered would turn getting Brady into a side-grade and would be a pointless musical chairs exercise. The only player the Devils have that has any sort of value on that scale would be a deal around Mercer and I know Sens fans would balk at that and rightfully so.

It's entirely to early for any trade talk for Brady anyway better to wait till he closer to the end of his contract

San Jose would probably offer their 2024 1st for Brady though if that's of interest to the Sens.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Exactly any Star player the Devils offered would turn getting Brady into a side-grade and would be a pointless musical chairs exercise. The only player the Devils have that has any sort of value on that scale would be a deal around Mercer and I know Sens fans would balk at that and rightfully so.

It's entirely to early for any trade talk for Brady anyway better to wait till he closer to the end of his contract

San Jose would probably offer their 2024 1st for Brady though if that's of interest to the Sens.

Mercer has no where close to the value you think. That's an embarrassing offer for Brady Tkachuk. NJD would be on call block. 33pts. lol

 

[dgibb10]

Brady has more goals than Matthew, after their first 6 seasons each.

Matthew had 40 more points in less games, culminating in a 40 goal 105 point season at age 24.
Brady Tkachuk is working on a 35 goal 70 point season at age 24

Matthew also had fantastic defensive results.
Brady is not good defensivelty.

For matthews recent card the important thing to look at is that absolutely ridiculous 2 way season in 21-22.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Matthew had 40 more points in less games, culminating in a 40 goal 105 point season at age 24.
Brady Tkachuk is working on a 35 goal 70 point season at age 24

Matthew also had fantastic defensive results.
Brady is not good defensivelty.
View attachment 850582View attachment 850581View attachment 850580View attachment 850583
For matthews recent card the important thing to look at is that absolutely ridiculous 2 way season in 21-22.

So you agree great, Brady is a better goal score than Matthew for the first 6 years.

 

[dgibb10]

So you agree great, Brady is a better goal score than Matthew.

19 year old Brady Tkachuk was a better goal scorer than 19 year old Matthew Tkachuk, sure. Good for him

 

[madmike77]

There’s really no incentive for the Flames to deal Markstrom for so little AND retain. If the Flames retain, the price goes up. They’ll have a ton of cap room but they’re not going to retain cap for free.

The only way the Flames would make a deal like this is as a favour to Markstrom.

 

[Golden_Jet]

19 year old Brady Tkachuk was a better goal scorer than 19 year old Matthew Tkachuk, sure. Good for him

First 6 years, add em up.

 

[My3Sons]

Yet, Jersey fans keep making proposals to try and get him lol.

How many NJ fans? Two five ten? Is that supposed to be some sort of landslide? It’s not the flex you want it to be as nobody on here speaks for anyone but themselves. How do you even know someone is a fan of a certain team? You can infer it with some evidence of posting but you have no idea if someone is just being facetious.

Of course Tkachuk is an excellent player and any team would be happy to have him. I’d be concerned if nobody was interested in a successful player on a team I rooted for. Beyond that the arguments are at cross purposes and both are right in their own way.

Tkachuk does play with a physical edge. A team wide style to maximize that can help win games. In contrast one or two guys on a team doing that has little overall impact and in contrast guys who can create offense are more rare and the ones who do it with ease are more sought after. If Jack Hughes was healthy all season and cracked 120+ points few GMs would take Tkachuk over him despite some thinking about it and maybe one or two preferring Tkachuk’s style.

Both Ottawa and NJ struggled this season. Some of these arguments are like two fat drunks behind the bar fighting over a spilled beer. The guy inside with the girls around him laughs at both of thr drunks. NJ had some success last year and there is no reason Ottawa can’t have success in the future. But the reality is that it will be a team thing not a single player thing. The best argument I think an Ottawa fan can make is that they prefer keeping Tkachuk unless forced to move him because of the balance he adds to the lineup the same way NJ fans would look at the last 20 games of Meier and say he’s indispensable.

 

[Golden_Jet]

There’s really no incentive for the Flames to deal Markstrom for so little AND retain. If the Flames retain, the price goes up. They’ll have a ton of cap room but they’re not going to retain cap for free.

The only way the Flames would make a deal like this is as a favour to Markstrom.

The whole thread is very funny listening to Jersey fans, trying to justify it.

 

[dgibb10]

All players can be traded if the offer is high enough. Gretzky was traded.

Is he on the market? No. If an offer was made that the Sens could not turn down, then he is on the market. Ergo, his value is massively high.

There is always a price. That's business 101 and hockey is a business.

Meanwhile, Timo Meier's value has plummeted since the trade...

Timo Meier's value plummetted because he played hurt for a while to try and help his team?

To start the year:

11 points 5 goals, 14 games.

He got injured, and played through a leg injury for a month that significantly impacted his skating speed and overall play (his speed was down 20% over this time frame). He then stopped to get fully healthy and what do you know.

Since getting healthy

36 points, 18 goals, 39 games.

brady Tkachuk has 35 goals and 70 points in 78 games this year
a healthy Timo Meier has paces of 34 goals and 69 points per 78 games this year.

 

[dgibb10]

First 6 years, add em up.

Brady has an edge of 8 goals in 6 more games.

Driven exclusively by their age 19 seasons.

after their rookie years Matthew went way ahead.

355 games,139 goals, 334 points for matthew.
366 games, 138 goals, 300 points for Brady.

And again, Matthew being significantly better defensively,