Nashville Predators talk - The offseason.

[maplepred]

I don’t understand the undervaluing of Tomasino and the good shoulders he’s getting here in Nashville. I will roll my eyes if he’s traded to the leafs and gets 60 plus points next season….

 

[PredsV82]

Trotz already said he want to extend Saros but it won't be July 1, so that's pretty obvious he's not going to offer 8x8 because Saros would/should jump on that July 1.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Exactly. 99 point players don't come around often and if you get the chance it's well worth the risk even if they have flaws.

There is an 80 point player that has produced in the playoff and won multiple cup I’d rather have than giving up assets for a 12 million dollar guy. And he played center for years a position they need more than a winger. Stamkos might of played wing a couple years but so did oreilly

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I don’t understand the undervaluing of Tomasino and the good shoulders he’s getting here in Nashville. I will roll my eyes if he’s traded to the leafs and gets 60 plus points next season….

I don't see Tomasino being undervalued, just recognition he doesn't seem long for the organization so it makes sense to figure he'd be included in such a deal.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

People thinking Saros would sign for anything less than an 8 year deal is hilarious. It's even more hilarious that you think he'd sign for under $7m/season.

He's been arguably one of the top 5 goalies in the league the last 3 years and he'll get paid accordingly.

Saros wasn't even one of the top 15 goalies in the league this past season however. Since he is signed already for next season, he could just wait and hope to get back to top 5 next season with a rebound year, and then get offered that bigger contract next summer.

Meanwhile, Trotz is under no obligation or pressure to lock up a mediocre goalie at top 5 numbers this summer. 6x$6.5M is a reasonable compromise if Saros wants the security. Or call it 6x$6.67M = $40M total. It would still be the 5th-highest goaltender AAV in the entire league (by next season's numbers - a couple other goalies will eventually surpass that by the time it kicks in). It guarantees Saros $45M more in his career.

Or, Saros could indeed gamble on himself and hope to stay healthy and return to the elite and get a bigger payday in the summer of 2025. He could get over $60M total if all goes perfectly for him. If I'm Trotz, I'm fine either way. If he wants the security by extending early, he can extend on our terms. If he wants to gamble on making an extra $15-20M down the road, I would be very comfortable letting him take that gamble.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Saros wasn't even one of the top 15 goalies in the league this past season however. Since he is signed already for next season, he could just wait and hope to get back to top 5 next season with a rebound year, and then get offered that bigger contract next summer.

Meanwhile, Trotz is under no obligation or pressure to lock up a mediocre goalie at top 5 numbers this summer. 6x$6.5M is a reasonable compromise if Saros wants the security. Or call it 6x$6.67M = $40M total. It would still be the 5th-highest goaltender AAV in the entire league (by next season's numbers - a couple other goalies will eventually surpass that by the time it kicks in). It guarantees Saros $45M more in his career.

Or, Saros could indeed gamble on himself and hope to stay healthy and return to the elite and get a bigger payday in the summer of 2025. He could get over $60M total if all goes perfectly for him. If I'm Trotz, I'm fine either way. If he wants the security by extending early, he can extend on our terms. If he wants to gamble on making an extra $15-20M down the road, I would be very comfortable letting him take that gamble.

I think giving saros the stability of not being traded with a ntc or nmc he might take a more team friendly deal. While everyone wants to be paid for his services I see saros wanted security more than a big contract. If we do sign saros to team friendly deal let say 6.5-7 then askarov has to be shopped in my opinion. While I think that trading saros for scoring help is what I would suggest I won’t be upset if we keep him to a team friendly deal and shop askarov.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Just because one guy did it doesn't mean another guy will. I can't remember exactly but I feel like Halak also didn't have the work load Saros has had in his career either.

Didn’t say it guaranteed anything but it does indicate that lack of size doesn’t necessarily they’ll have a super steep decline. There just aren’t a lot of goalies Saros size so who knows though.

 

[herzausstein]

7 goalies 34 and older played in NHL games this season. 3 took 40 or more games (Fleury, Bobrovsky, and Talbot). The other 4 took 28 or less games. Average caphit of the bunch is about 3 million mostly due to Bobrovsky.

Signing Saros to a 8 year contract where he will be 38 by the end of it would be extremely short sighted. I understand the cap will go up. So will the contract demands of every other RFA or UFA this team deals with. 3 NHL teams had goalies over 34 take a starters load: Fleury as a split with 40 games and bad stats, Bobrovsky whose contract has been viewed over the years as an albatross actually had a good season, and Talbot who had a good season but was signed at a 1Y x 1M contract and got cratered in the post season. Very few goalies manage to stay in the NHL past 34 with only a few maintaining starters position. Next year there might be 4 if Markstrom can remain healthy, Talbot gets a starter position somewhere, and Minnesota continues to have goalie issues making Fleury take more games than he should.

 

[maplepred]

I don't see Tomasino being undervalued, just recognition he doesn't seem long for the organization so it makes sense to figure he'd be included in such a deal.

I guess that’s the part that confuses me… we do we not think Tomasino fits the Preds plan?

He’s so young and puts up very impressive numbers. Basically same nhl numbers as Evangelista and less than a year apart. I just don’t get it…

 

[herzausstein]

I guess that’s the part that confuses me… we do we not think Tomasino fits the Preds plan?

He’s so young and puts up very impressive numbers. Basically same nhl numbers as Evangelista and less than a year apart. I just don’t get it…

I think he fits the organizations plan of needing point producing forwards. Can he work out the kinks in his game that Brunette doesn't like in order to stay on the team and get icetime? That is a different story.

 

[Kat Predator]

I think he fits the organizations plan of needing point producing forwards. Can he work out the kinks in his game that Brunette doesn't like in order to stay on the team and get icetime? That is a different story.

It just highlights the difference between stat line watching and an overall evaluation. Tomasino is a shooter and a point producer. That's been true at every level. That fact will get him another chance or three.

But it is also true that he hasn't been trusted as a complete player by two coaching staffs now. Brunette publicly put him on notice that he has to change the way he plays to satisfy the coach or he is gone. Tomasino meanwhile said he thought he was doing things the way the coaches wanted in his interview. And, he's been told this message from coaches for multiple seasons as is evident from roster moves. So there is natural skepticism that even if Tomasino overhauls his game, it won't amount to a "too little, too late" and not enough to change poor first impressions, which are now a matter of record, not rumor.

 

[Armourboy]

If Tomasino thought he was doing things the way the coaches wanted then either they need to communicate better or he needs to learn to listen better because if the coach is talking about you publicly you aren't doing something right.

 

[Legionnaire11]

One thing I noticed while doing player ratings this season and looking over the NHL's EDGE data, is that the Preds are still a slow team and Tomasino is near the bottom of our forwards in that department.

The best measurement I've found that matches the eye test is the "20+ MPH bursts" stat, as it shows which players are consistently hitting top speeds in real game situations. Here are the league leaders in this stat on a per game basis...

Nathan MacKinnon - 8.74
Connor McDavid - 6.01
Brayden Point - 5.38
Roope Hintz - 5.04
Martin Necas - 4.71
Ryan McLeod - 4.60
Josh Anderson - 4.29
Mathew Barzal - 4.23
Yegor Chinakhov 3.89
Tim Stutzle - 3.79
Miles Wood - 3.77
Jack Eichel - 3.75
Adam Fantilli - 3.67
Julien Gauthier - 3.59
Adrian Kempe - 3.58
Owen Tippett - 3.51


89 players in the league (20 games minimum) averaged over 2 bursts of 20+ per game. The Predators had just one of those players, Cole Smith at 2.01


Here is our full list of forwards...

*Liam Foudy - 2.31
Cole Smith - 2.01
Egor Afanasyev - 2.00
*Jaret Anderson-Dolan - 1.90
Anthony Beuvillier - 1.72
Tommy Novak - 1.27
Kiefer Sherwood - 1.12
Juuso Parssinen - 1.11
Filip Forsberg - 1.09
Colton Sissons - 1.07
Gustav Nyquist - 0.96
Cody Glass - 0.85
Jason Zucker - 0.81
Michael McCarron - 0.71
Philip Tomasino - 0.71
Luke Evangelista - 0.59
Mark Jankowkski - 0.47
Ryan O'Reilly - 0.41

 

[weeze]

People thinking Saros would sign for anything less than an 8 year deal is hilarious. It's even more hilarious that you think he'd sign for under $7m/season.

He's been arguably one of the top 5 goalies in the league the last 3 years and he'll get paid accordingly.

Not so fast... Regular season don't mean squat!

9 years in the NHL with a 182 - 119 - 32 record and .917% SV and 2.63 GAA.
6 years of PO stats with a 5 - 11 - 0 record and .911% SV and 2.45 GAA.

Also in the past 3 years his GAA has increased every year, not gone down. Granted he is playing 67, 64 and 64 games a year but that is on the HC. He was the league leader the last 3 years in games played as a goalie. In two of the 3 he led the league in SA and SV and MIN. So maybe his play decreases due to his overplay of games. Sure he wins a lot of games but he also loses a lot of games. Is it or was it all his fault for the losses, no but the Wins/Loss go to him.

Sure he has been in the Vezina talk for a few years but that is a double edge sword. He has also been one of the most overworked goalies in the league as well. As a or one of the smallest goalies that can wear you down.

 

[maplepred]

It just highlights the difference between stat line watching and an overall evaluation. Tomasino is a shooter and a point producer. That's been true at every level. That fact will get him another chance or three.

But it is also true that he hasn't been trusted as a complete player by two coaching staffs now. Brunette publicly put him on notice that he has to change the way he plays to satisfy the coach or he is gone. Tomasino meanwhile said he thought he was doing things the way the coaches wanted in his interview. And, he's been told this message from coaches for multiple seasons as is evident from roster moves. So there is natural skepticism that even if Tomasino overhauls his game, it won't amount to a "too little, too late" and not enough to change poor first impressions, which are now a matter of record, not rumor.

What’s Tomasino doing wrong though? I’m clearly missing something here.

 

[herzausstein]

One thing I noticed while doing player ratings this season and looking over the NHL's EDGE data, is that the Preds are still a slow team and Tomasino is near the bottom of our forwards in that department.

The best measurement I've found that matches the eye test is the "20+ MPH bursts" stat, as it shows which players are consistently hitting top speeds in real game situations. Here are the league leaders in this stat on a per game basis...

Nathan MacKinnon - 8.74
Connor McDavid - 6.01
Brayden Point - 5.38
Roope Hintz - 5.04
Martin Necas - 4.71
Ryan McLeod - 4.60
Josh Anderson - 4.29
Mathew Barzal - 4.23
Yegor Chinakhov 3.89
Tim Stutzle - 3.79
Miles Wood - 3.77
Jack Eichel - 3.75
Adam Fantilli - 3.67
Julien Gauthier - 3.59
Adrian Kempe - 3.58
Owen Tippett - 3.51


89 players in the league (20 games minimum) averaged over 2 bursts of 20+ per game. The Predators had just one of those players, Cole Smith at 2.01


Here is our full list of forwards...

*Liam Foudy - 2.31
Cole Smith - 2.01
Egor Afanasyev - 2.00
*Jaret Anderson-Dolan - 1.90
Anthony Beuvillier - 1.72
Tommy Novak - 1.27
Kiefer Sherwood - 1.12
Juuso Parssinen - 1.11
Filip Forsberg - 1.09
Colton Sissons - 1.07
Gustav Nyquist - 0.96
Cody Glass - 0.85
Jason Zucker - 0.81
Michael McCarron - 0.71
Philip Tomasino - 0.71
Luke Evangelista - 0.59
Mark Jankowkski - 0.47
Ryan O'Reilly - 0.41

I personally dont think that stat is going to be favorable to this teams playstyle. If you are making alot of passes to get up the ice you aren't going to really hit those 20+ MPH bursts. McDavid carries the puck from end to end with speed because that is how his teams offense runs when he is on the ice... same with MacKinnon. We tend to use several passes to move the puck up the ice quickly so the players don't have the space/time to get to those speeds. Usage could also play a big part as well. With smith being so high for us, id wager his burst come on the PK trying to get back down ice or chasing the puck into the offensive zone to pin it against the boards and eat up time.

Per edge, Tomasinos top skating speed was 21.40 ( below 50th percentile) and NHL average for forwards was 22.10. Smith's top speed of 22.80 put him into the 80th percentile in terms of speed which kindof tells you how thin a margin it is between "below average" speed and top 20% speed is... 1.4 mph (2.05 ft/second). At 21.4 mph you can travel 200 ft in 6.37 seconds, at 22.80 mph it takes 5.98 seconds.

 

[Predsanddead24]

What’s Tomasino doing wrong though? I’m clearly missing something here.

He's not a strong forechecker and is largely a perimeter player. Brunette is big on adhering to the system and a strong forecheck and playing towards the goal are critical components of his system. His inability to do that got him sent down this year and since he is losing his waiver eligibility he doesn't have much runway left to make those changes. I personally like Tomasino but I don't think he has much of a future here so if you can salvage value I think it's worth it.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

I think we've ruined him so send him on his way. Add him to the long list of young forwards who can't "adhere to our system" and be successful at the same time. Give him his freedom so he can go to another team and thrive while commenting how good it fells to no longer have to "adhere to our system".

Btw Phil, Kevin Fiala (29 goals, 44 assists, 73 points) left you a supportive message on your cell.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I think we've ruined him so send him on his way. Add him to the long list of young forwards who can't "adhere to our system" and be successful at the same time. Give him his freedom so he can go to another team and thrive while commenting how good it fells to no longer have to "adhere to our system".

Btw Phil, Kevin Fiala (29 goals, 44 assists, 73 points) left you a supportive message on your cell.

That the same Kevin Fiala that Minnesota didn't want to extend, and traded, despite his production and who has complained about the system in LA and wearing out his welcome there too?

 

[Kat Predator]

What’s Tomasino doing wrong though? I’m clearly missing something here.

I'll use bumper cars as an analogy. Brunette wants smash-up derby guys to drive fast and hard straight into the opposition, giving them little time and space to get going and ideally to steal the puck after delivering a little fun whiplash. Tomasino is more of a oval track racer as a bumper car. He wants to weave in and out, get to the checkered flag first, and avoid big collisions with others and the wall.

For a team that is offensively challenged, one might think having a guy who doesn't need to be taught how to shoot the puck from square zero would be a good thing and something you could use. Apparently, not so much.

 

[Enoch]

Thank God we cut a first line winger, 40 goal scorer, who wanted to play here, and has speed….

We definitely didn’t need him.

Double OT game winner for Duchene. Glad we are footing the bill while clambering for the need to get offense smh

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Thank God we cut a first line winger, 40 goal scorer, who wanted to play here, and has speed….

We definitely didn’t need him.

Double OT game winner for Duchene. Glad we are footing the bill while clambering for the need to get offense smh

On the bright side, we also cut RyJo and he's basically out of the league now. You win some, lose some? If Trotz bats .500 is that enough?

 

[JR303]

Thank God we cut a first line winger, 40 goal scorer, who wanted to play here, and has speed….

We definitely didn’t need him.

Double OT game winner for Duchene. Glad we are footing the bill while clambering for the need to get offense smh

I honestly think that was the worst move we've made in years, including the tolvanen thing.
Was sitting there last night, watching dal col thinking, damn we had to be the slowest team in the playoffs, could have really used his speed.
Been scratching my head since the moment I heard about the buyout.
I have faith in trotz but that one still bites.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I honestly think that was the worst move we've made in years, including the tolvanen thing.
Was sitting there last night, watching dal col thinking, damn we had to be the slowest team in the playoffs, could have really used his speed.
Been scratching my head since the moment I heard about the buyout.
I have faith in trotz but that one still bites.

I bought into the idea that it was necessary as a culture move and it was necessary to reestablish the identity of this team and open up a top six spot for some players even if it hurt us on ice in the short term. Given how the young guys on Dallas have played it certainly contradicts the idea we needed to do it to instill a winning culture, and then we decided to fill that second line winger slot with Jankowski for the latter half of the season. I wonder how Trotz views that decision with hindsight.

 

[JR303]

I bought into the idea that it was necessary as a culture move and it was necessary to reestablish the identity of this team and open up a top six spot for some players even if it hurt us on ice in the short term. Given how the young guys on Dallas have played it certainly contradicts the idea we needed to do it to instill a winning culture, and then we decided to fill that second line winger slot with Jankowski for the latter half of the season. I wonder how Trotz views that decision with hindsight.

Something tells me gms need to have the same sort of memory that keepers have after a goal.
Try to fix it, move on and don't make the same mistake again, if you can help it.
As much as I like ROR, I think Duchene's speed alone would have made a huge difference for us, but obviously that's just my opinion.
Good point above though. I figured he either had a vision that got sidetracked by shiny new players being available, or panicked when he realized we were probably screwed.