Multiple Balls: Disadvantage?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by FiveWhole, Jul 20, 2005.

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  1. FiveWhole

    FiveWhole Registered User

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    Perhaps I am out of the loop here, (and maybe someone has already addressed this) but if they are going to draw balls backwards (starting with #30 all the way to #1), isn't it going to be a disadvantage to have multiple balls? (assuming once your ball is picked, the rest of your balls are null and void)

    Can someone explain?
     
  2. Slats432

    Slats432 Registered User

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    No, there is no disadvantage. The more balls, the higher chance to get a higher pick. If you get drawn, then your balls don't mean anything the 2nd or third time around.
     
  3. Old Hickory

    Old Hickory Guest

    Where did you get the idea they were going to draw backwards?
     
  4. Vinceee

    Vinceee Go Foreurs Go!

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    Well if its backward, It's clearly a disadvantage... I'm starting to be happy with the only ball the Habs have

    Edit:damn, it was too good to be true, but that wouldnt be fair...
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2005
  5. Hedberg

    Hedberg MLD Glue Guy

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    Probably from all the talk of the 30-1 announcement.
     
  6. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    they arent drawing backwards.

    They are drawing starting with the #1 pikc. But when they show it on TV they will reveal the #30 pick first.
     
  7. Shane

    Shane Registered User

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    For the last time, they're NOT drawing them 30-1, they're drawing them 1-30 behind closed doors, then revealing the order 30-1 at the press conference. Can't anyone here read?
     
  8. SI

    Read the line at the bottommost part of the article.
     
  9. Vinceee

    Vinceee Go Foreurs Go!

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    Its outdated... lot of things happened since July 13th
     
  10. FiveWhole

    FiveWhole Registered User

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    Thanks for the clarification, guys... makes much more sense, but it would provide better intregue/suspense if they did it this way...
     
  11. bcrt2000

    bcrt2000 Registered User

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    theres a talk going on in the doubleminor.net forums that the lottery will be in fact reverse elimination-- one guy reported that he heard it on the Radio this morning, another guy saying it was reported on TSN in the morning-- if a team has 2 balls, then their first ball will be ignored, if a team has 3 balls, their first 2 balls will be ignored
     
  12. Dave is a killer

    Dave is a killer Dave's a Mess

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    now that's BS
     
  13. Seachd

    Seachd Registered User

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    That way's said to be the best if drawing were to take place from 30-1. But as far as we know, it's going 1-30.
     
  14. They are going 30-1

    If you have 3 balls and you get picked 1st time, then you have 2 balls, they go down to whoever has the last one.
     
  15. bcrt2000

    bcrt2000 Registered User

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    well don't shoot the messenger, but there are 2 independent people on those forums who are reporting they heard from Radio/TSN that it will be reverse elimination... if it is true we'll find out tonight around 6-7 when Bob M. does his Insider report
     
  16. Seachd

    Seachd Registered User

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    Well, yes, that's why I said as far as we know. But if that's the case, why wouldn't the drawing be shown live? TSN still says they're just showing the results.
     
  17. FiveWhole

    FiveWhole Registered User

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    Quit being an ass... as you can see from the other posts, there is plenty of uncertainty on these boards about how this is going to be done. I've read the some of the other posts, and have yet to see one concise statement about how the order is going to be done.

    Perhaps we can have a mod lock a summary thread with the specifics that we do know about the lottery and draft to prevent future F.U.D, duplicate threads, and pissy one-named posters?
     
  18. allelsefails

    allelsefails Registered User

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    So the teams with more balls have a better chance of getting their's drawn earlier? Then, statistically, it's a 1/30 shot towards the home stretch to #1?

    I don't buy this.
     
  19. Seachd

    Seachd Registered User

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    No, they'd count the last ball, not the first one. So the more balls a team has, the more likely it is that their last one comes out later.
     
  20. ktownhockey

    ktownhockey Registered User

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    It will be drawn 1-30 THEN when it is annouced it will be 30-1.


    this is the only way it makes sense. I can guarantee it will be the way it works.

    hopefully they make it exciting with a 30/1 announcement to end it.
     
  21. PDO

    PDO Registered User

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    Yeah.. having an "Extra" ball would give you no advantage.

    The only way they could do this backwards would be to give all the teams that have 1 ball 3 and 3 balls 1.. I just don't see the point of not doing it in order?
     
  22. DJAnimosity

    DJAnimosity ghosts 'n stuff

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    I can guarantee it as well. It would make no sense to go backwards. The first ball drawn will be the winner of the lottery, and then they'll go from there.
     
  23. mschmidt64

    mschmidt64 Registered User

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    That doesn't make any sense.

    Even if you ignore the first balls of the multi-ball teams, it gives them no advantage whatsoever over the teams with one ball.

    If you're drawing backwards, the Rangers, Blackhawks, etc, should only get 1 ball, while teams like the Flyers and Leafs get 3.

    And then whosever comes out first, loses.
     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2005
  24. allelsefails

    allelsefails Registered User

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    Not according to my reasoning (but hey I might be loopy).

    I meant their first balls would come out earlier, thus removing the advantage of having more balls to be picked - meaning eventually it would be a 1/30 draft.

    Theoretical.

    30. Columbus - 1st Ball (redo)
    30. LA Kings - 1st Ball (redo)
    30. Chicago - 1st Ball (redo)
    30. Nashville - 1st Ball (redo)
    30. Detroit - Last Ball

    29. NYR - 1st Ball (redo)
    29. NYR - 2nd Ball (redo)
    29. Vancouver - Last Ball

    28. Columbus - 2nd Ball (redo)
    28. Carolina - 1st Ball (redo)
    28. Philadelphia - Last Ball

    Some weighted teams are now down to 1 last ball with much of the draft left. There is no stastical advantage to having more balls in a reverse draft order - basically it would be a 1/30 shot down the stretch.
     
  25. mschmidt64

    mschmidt64 Registered User

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    I don't think that's statistically an accurate statement.

    In fact, you will eventually draw down to a point where there are a few teams remaining who only began with one ball, and teams that have had their first balls eliminated.

    If this point comes after having drawn from 30 all the way down to 10 (theoretically, though it could happen anywhere), one-ball teams remaining and the multi-ball teams remaining all have exactly the same odds (since their previous balls have already been drawn and discounted) as you continue to work from ten on down.

    The only way to generate a system where a team like the Rangers or Blackhawks truly has odds to get the first overall pick is to start at 1.
     
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