GDT: Moose Loosened Aboot Hoose vs. Planes

[The Abusement Park]

If your top pair is noticeable worse defensively all year, that's definitely a problem. They play against the opposition's best players every night.

There isn't a big margin for error when you're the last man back before the goalie, and your goalie isn't making all the big saves.

And especially when you're not as dominant offensviely to outscore your mistakes, or have the lead more often, and often by multiple goals, which gets the opposition away from their system, and makes you look better because your opposition is playing into your hands to come back.

Your top pair could just be 10-15% worse and that can amount to a lot of scoring chances and goals against over the course of a season.

Or it can be the difference in winning or losing a game or two in a smaller sample size in the playoffs, and advancing or being eliminated. It's the difference between a dominant Cup team and just a good team with weaknesses.

Again he’s been worse, this year but he’s still a clear cut top 5 dman this year. He’s had an off year but the defense as a whole is still very much comparable to the cup winning team defensively. It only seems worse because the goaltending has been so incredibly bad that it seems like every mistake is worse than it is

 

[Foppa2118]

Again he’s been worse, this year but he’s still a clear cut top 5 dman this year. He’s had an off year but the defense as a whole is still very much comparable to the cup winning team defensively. It only seems worse because the goaltending has been so incredibly bad that it seems like every mistake is worse than it is

Cale perhaps, but not Toews. He's just made too many mistakes outside that two months or so in January and February.

The defense is quite different. Cale has been good offensively, but a noticeable notch down defensively. Toews also a notch down. Byram had a down year and has been replaced by Walker who is struggling now as well. And they don't have EJ who did fairly well in the playoffs helping to contain guys like McDavid.

Manson and JJ are the only ones that have played at about the same level from the Cup year.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Cale perhaps, but not Toews. He's just made too many mistakes outside that two months or so in January and February.

The defense is quite different. Cale has been good offensively, but a noticeable notch down defensively. Toews also a notch down. Byram had a down year and has been replaced by Walker who is struggling now as well. And they don't have EJ who did fairly well in the playoffs helping to contain guys like McDavid.

Manson and JJ are the only ones that have played at about the same level from the Cup year.

I mean comparable in ability. All the numbers are quite good for the back end individually. Makar, Toews, Manson, and Girard are all top 50 this year in xGF, top 20 in SC%, top 50 in HDC%. Again I think the poor goaltending is really skewing everyones view on the defense worse than it's been. That's not to say the defense has been perfect or hasn't made mistakes. But we've been a top ~10 defense this year with a goalie who's quality starts is comparable to Korpisalo, Wedgewood, JoJo, and Vanacek.

 

[Foppa2118]

I mean comparable in ability. All the numbers are quite good for the back end individually. Makar, Toews, Manson, and Girard are all top 50 this year in xGF, top 20 in SC%, top 50 in HDC%. Again I think the poor goaltending is really skewing everyones view on the defense worse than it's been. That's not to say the defense has been perfect or hasn't made mistakes. But we've been a top ~10 defense this year with a goalie who's quality starts is comparable to Korpisalo, Wedgewood, JoJo, and Vanacek.

The analytics don't match the eye test IMO. I think we rely too much on analytics alone here to compare the play of the team this year vs the Cup year, or Georgiev to Kuemper.

The sample size of one season isn't large enough to weed out all the variance for many of these public stats, so they shouldn't be relied so heavily on to define players. Just one example being players like Toews and Girard this year, who played entirely different during a couple months in the middle of the season, versus how they did at the beginning and end of the season.

Which basically gives you a couple different seasons within a season, and therefore a much smaller sample size for each, making each one even more susceptible to flawed conclusions.

Perhaps some have had their opinion on the play of the D core influenced by goaltending, but only those that are being results oriented. Whether the team allows a goal or not, is a separate event from the coverage mistake or the turnover, and these have both happened a fair amount more this year based on the eye test.

 

[dahrougem2]

I honestly hope if they don't find a sucker for this bum that they make him rot in the AHL until he demands to go back to Russia next season.