Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[LeafsNation75]

Are you in Toronto? Marner is on every other commercial. He's all over billboards. He's everywhere. Whatever you're doing in Toronto, Marner is looking at you. Far more than any other player than I can think of.

He's got to be making a **** ton of money. Enough to, at the very least, even up the whole tax in Tampa thing.

I can not count the number of times I have seen that Marner commercial for Visa and the other one he did for Intact Insurance.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I can not count the number of times I have seen that Marner commercial for Visa and the other one he did for Intact Insurance.

Oh, you don't own a tv?

For those of us that own tv's, he's constantly everywhere.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Oh, you don't own a tv?

For those of us that own tv's, he's constantly everywhere.

I do have a TV because it's why I said I can not count the number of times I have seen that Marner commercial for Visa, meaning I have seen it a lot. Especially during all the Leafs recent playoff games.

 

[doorbag]

Why would Rantanen's agent accept less than Matthews, or Marner for that matter?
Rantanen put up substantially more points and goals the past 2 years, and is having a CRAZY playoffs.

I agree that the deal Matthews received will be used for Rantanen’s contract however teams tend to have their own cap structures that factor into negotiations. 11 million would set Rantanan up to be paid almost double what Mackinnon is currently making and Mackinnon is a superior player at a more valuable position.

I’m not saying that he’s going to accept less than 10 million or anything (imho Matthews, Marner, Point and Rantanan should be getting Eichel money) but he might have less leverage than Marner to ask for more when Marner can claim that two players signed within the last two years on the same team that he plays for are currently making 11 million and he is better than both of them.

 

[ccman68]

Marner will hold out the same as Nylander did. He will want to be the highest paid player since he is their best player. Dubas won’t want that obviously. They will probably end up signing him to the same contract as Matthews at the last second.

 

[Lenerdosy]

Matthews and Marner are both coming off elc's, they play for the same team, Marner had the better season, Marner should get 8 not 5 years.

If Marner really wants to get paid he does the same thing and does 5 years. Basically the more UFA prime years you have the more you're likely to make as a star in this league. Best thing TO can do is try and get him for 8 years because he will be in his late 20s and prime at the tail end and if the cap rises decently each year he will be a good bang for your buck by then easy.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I do have a TV because it's why I said I can not count the number of times I have seen that Marner commercial for Visa, meaning I have seen it a lot. Especially during all the Leafs recent playoff games.

My bad. I thought you were denying that the Marner advertisements are everywhere, and I was dumbfounded.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Marner will hold out the same as Nylander did. He will want to be the highest paid player since he is their best player. Dubas won’t want that obviously. They will probably end up signing him to the same contract as Matthews at the last second.

Marner will not hold out until December 1, 2019 the way Nylander did. I'm sure he gets re-signed before July 1, 2019.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I agree that the deal Matthews received will be used for Rantanen’s contract however teams tend to have their own cap structures that factor into negotiations. 11 million would set Rantanan up to be paid almost double what Mackinnon is currently making and Mackinnon is a superior player at a more valuable position.

I’m not saying that he’s going to accept less than 10 million or anything (imho Matthews, Marner, Point and Rantanan should get be getting Eichel money) but he might have less leverage than Marner to ask for more when Marner can claim that two players signed within the last two years on the same team that he plays for are currently making 11 million and he is better than both of them.

Here's an inconsistency I can't make sense of.

Apparently, the leafs have to heavily overpay Marner well more than his direct comparables at the same age, due to the Matthews overpayment/leafs internal cap structure.

But at the same time, everyone's saying if the leafs don't sign Marner before July 1st, teams will be eagerly waiting to offer sheet him.

So my question... why would other teams overpay Marner compared to similar players (Rantanen, Aho, Point), based on the leafs overpayment of Matthews, as well as give up 4 first round picks, all the while creating their own internal cap nightmare?

I just don't see it happening in a million years.

 

[BB88]

I agree that Marner had the better season. It's just easier said than done that he should get 8 years instead of the 5 years Matthews signed for.

I don't think you will see any Leafs fans who want Marner to sign for 5 years and I'm one of them.

As I said just above anything that stops at the same time as Matthews is a nightmare for the Leafs, they need to get the term with him, which raises the price.

He's an awesome player so Dubas shouldn't be messing with this one, like he did with Nylanders.

If Marner really wants to get paid he does the same thing and does 5 years. Basically the more UFA prime years you have the more you're likely to make as a star in this league. Best thing TO can do is try and get him for 8 years because he will be in his late 20s and prime at the tail end and if the cap rises decently each year he will be a good bang for your buck by then easy.

With Tavares+ Matthews+ Nylander contracts Marner can't sign a short deal, it would be a damm cap nightmare.

 

[ccman68]

Marner will not hold out until December 1, 2019 the way Nylander did. I'm sure he gets re-signed before July 1, 2019.

I can't see Marner being happy taking less than Matthews. So only way he gets signed early is if Dubas is willing to pay him.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I can't see Marner being happy taking less than Matthews. So only way he gets signed early is if Dubas is willing to pay him.

If you honestly think Marner holds out until December 1 I still say your crazy, because Dubas will have learned from the Nylander experience to not go through that again.

 

[LeafsNation75]

As I said just above anything that stops at the same time as Matthews is a nightmare for the Leafs, they need to get the term with him, which raises the price.

He's an awesome player so Dubas shouldn't be messing with this one, like he did with Nylanders.

I'm sure Dubas learned from the Nylander experience to not go through that with Marner and I bet Brendan Shanahan will remind him of that.

 

[doorbag]

Here's an inconsistency I can't make sense of.

Apparently, the leafs have to heavily overpay Marner well more than his direct comparables at the same age, due to the Matthews overpayment/leafs internal cap structure.

But at the same time, everyone's saying if the leafs don't sign Marner before July 1st, teams will be eagerly waiting to offer sheet him.

So my question... why would other teams overpay Marner compared to similar players (Rantanen, Aho, Point), based on the leafs overpayment of Matthews, as well as give up 4 first round picks, all the while creating their own internal cap nightmare?

I just don't see it happening in a million years.

I agree with you there. Offer sheeting Marner would be insane when you consider the cost. It would have to be a salary high enough that the Leafs would not match so 13 million? 12.5 million? I don’t know where the line would be drawn for the Leafs but there are desperate teams that could afford those numbers. However, when you add the compensation draft picks it just seems like a ridiculous overpayment. Especially since the teams that are likely desperate enough to consider an offer sheet on that level are probably going to be having some relatively high draft picks in the upcoming years.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Here's an inconsistency I can't make sense of.

Apparently, the leafs have to heavily overpay Marner well more than his direct comparables at the same age, due to the Matthews overpayment/leafs internal cap structure.

But at the same time, everyone's saying if the leafs don't sign Marner before July 1st, teams will be eagerly waiting to offer sheet him.

So my question... why would other teams overpay Marner compared to similar players (Rantanen, Aho, Point), based on the leafs overpayment of Matthews, as well as give up 4 first round picks, all the while creating their own internal cap nightmare?

I just don't see it happening in a million years.

Using that same logic why won't other teams want to sign Rantanen, Aho, Point, Laine, Connor or Trouba to offer sheets? Assuming Marner re-signs before July 1, 2019 and the other players I mentioned do not, wouldn't they be talked about getting an offer sheet a lot more?

 

[LeafsNation75]

I agree with you there. Offer sheeting Marner would be insane when you consider the cost. It would have to be a salary high enough that the Leafs would not match so 13 million? 12.5 million? I don’t know where the line would be drawn for the Leafs but there are desperate teams that could afford those numbers. However, when you add the compensation draft picks it just seems like a ridiculous overpayment. Especially since the teams that are likely desperate enough to consider an offer sheet on that level are probably going to be having some relatively high draft picks in the upcoming years.

Here is why offer sheets or the threats of them are overblown. Looking at your avatar I'm assuming you're an Oilers fan. In the summer of 2017 when the Oilers signed Connor McDavid to his contract extension 1 year before he could have become an RFA, it was before they re-signed Leon Draisaitl who was an RFA. I remember some people thought if the Oilers wait to long Draisaitl might sign an offer sheet and that never happened.

 

[eramosat]

There aren't any NHL players who are worth an offer sheet in the Top 2 tiers, except for a GM with suicidal tendancies. Or no real players on their squad looking for some NHL validation . It's an All or Nothing move taken to an extreme, and really more of a showboat move than a real move. Think...man, all I can think about is the players the upstart WHL league signed.

But there are plenty of targets in Tier 5...$2,029,660 - $4,059,322 = 1 2nd round Pick. Anyone who thinks Marner is a target for their team can easily find others who would serve them just as well.

 

[doorbag]

Here is why offer sheets or the threats of them are overblown. Looking at your avatar I'm assuming you're an Oilers fan. In the summer of 2017 when the Oilers signed Connor McDavid to his contract extension 1 year before he could have become an RFA, it was before they re-signed Leon Draisaitl who was an RFA. I remember some people thought if the Oilers wait to long Draisaitl might sign an offer sheet and that never happened.

An argument could be made that an offer sheet would be worth making for a very talaneted RFA on a cap strapped team if the number being offered were below 10.1 million. But for the players in the tier of Marner, Rantanan and Point where the salary will almost certainly put them category requiring the four first round picks as compensation it just doesn’t seem worth it.

 

[Hunter368]

Using that same logic why won't other teams want to sign Rantanen, Aho, Point, Laine, Connor or Trouba to offer sheets? Assuming Marner re-signs before July 1, 2019 and the other players I mentioned do not, wouldn't they be talked about getting an offer sheet a lot more?

Not getting involved in your Marner debate......just pointing out one name you shouldn’t of included is Trouba. If we assume the rumours are true that he wants to play for a US eastern based team (seems to be a fair assumption at this point).......while teams may offer him a offer sheet he would never sign one and risk Winnipeg matching it.

Carry on with the Marner debate.

 

[LeafsNation75]

An argument could be made that an offer sheet would be worth making for a very talaneted RFA on a cap strapped team if the number being offered were below 10.1 million. But for the players in the tier of Marner, Rantanan and Point where the salary will almost certainly put them category requiring the four first round picks as compensation it just doesn’t seem worth it.

I agree and that's why the talk about only Marner being the only one to get an offer sheet is crazy, when other players such as Rantanen, Aho, Point, Laine, Connor or Trouba could also get one. However I think only Marner's name got brought up because of how big the Toronto market is and those fans who hate the Leafs and want it to happen.

Hell we didn't see William Nylander sign an offer sheet because he was an RFA until December 1, 2018 and re-signed with Toronto at the last possible chance.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not getting involved in your Marner debate......just pointing out one name you shouldn’t of included is Trouba. If we assume the rumours are true that he wants to play for a US eastern based team (seems to be a fair assumption at this point).......while teams may offer him a offer sheet he would never sign one and risk Winnipeg matching it.

Carry on with the Marner debate.

I only included Trouba because he's still listed as one of the top RFA's the Jets have, so it's nothing personal.

 

[Hunter368]

I only included Trouba because he's still listed as one of the top RFA's the Jets have, so it's nothing personal.

I understand your point, but Trouba isn’t a great example in this case bc of the reasons stated. Your other examples are fair & logical.

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

Welp, in terms of negotiations, Dubas should be glad Marner under-performed in the playoffs. It gives him some leverage in the negotiations this summer, which will be a very challenging one for him.

I think this will drag on throughout July/August and maybe come to an agreement prior to camp. My guess is 9.5/5 years

 

[Torontoborn]

Marner will hold out the same as Nylander did. He will want to be the highest paid player since he is their best player. Dubas won’t want that obviously. They will probably end up signing him to the same contract as Matthews at the last second.

Debatable my friend.

 

[absolute garbage]

Those bloated contracts to Matthews and Kneelander are going to create issues. I just don't see how Marner is supposed to sign for less than Matthews. I guess Matthews is the goalscorer and a center with size and stuff... but I'm sure Marner's camp is going to argue that Marner is still the better player and I think they certainly have a case.

It has to at least start with 11, and be a similar short term deal that buys only 1 UFA year. Oh boy.