Micah McCurdy creates a new xG model with a new estimate for passing ability called "setting"

[Rengorlex]

McCurdy identified a better way to predict goal probability, which included setting ability, the quality of passes; whoever was the last guy to pass the puck influences the ability of a shooter to exceed expected goals.

HV Article

Visualizations and predictions for understanding hockey.

hockeyviz.com

Some of the best passers in the game, like Connor McDavid and Patrick Kane, appear to be much better than their xgf alone would suggest.

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[me2]

I was looking through the goalies at the bottom. Mike Smith, Campbell, yep. Demko markstrom, Saros, yep, Vasilevskiy, yep. I wonder where Shesterkin is. Nowhere. Check his NHL numbers, ok he faced enough shots. Nope.

OH THERE HE IS!

 

[Mickey Marner]

For shots which result in goals, the league records the name of the player who most-recently touched the puck before the shooter (the so-called "primary assist"); where such primary assists are recorded I mark this player as the setter. For shots which do not result in a goal, the setter (if they exist) is not recorded by the league. However, I do know which other players are on the ice, and I can impute a probability that each one was the setter for a given shot.

Two calculations for one statistic is a bit dubious.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Great, now we will more dumbasses posting graphs to state a player is good, or bad.

f*** do we even discuss players.

That said, I'm obviously not for analytics, but this person seems to be one of the top for it. Anyone know why this person hasn't been offered a job with an NHL team ?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Great, now we will more dumbasses posting graphs to state a player is good, or bad.

f*** do we even discuss players.

That said, I'm obviously not for analytics, but this person seems to be one of the top for it. Anyone know why this person hasn't been offered a job with an NHL team ?

Did you manage to get lost, or do you know which sub-forum you wandered into?

 

[Peat]

Great, now we will more dumbasses posting graphs to state a player is good, or bad.

f*** do we even discuss players.

That said, I'm obviously not for analytics, but this person seems to be one of the top for it. Anyone know why this person hasn't been offered a job with an NHL team ?

McCurdy has done some work with NHL teams, and the experience prompted him to become completely financially independent through his subscriber base so he never has to do that again, iirc.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

My experience is dated, but at the time (consulting, not an FTE) there were teams who wanted to say that they were working in analytics but wouldn't actually listen to recommendations. Or I wasn't that good/persuasive. Potentially both.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

My experience is dated, but at the time (consulting, not an FTE) there were teams who wanted to say that they were working in analytics but wouldn't actually listen to recommendations. Or I wasn't that good/persuasive. Potentially both.

IIRC Micah has said something similar when asked why he still works in the public sphere. I'm also paraphrasing, but, he's also mentioned that he enjoys working in the public sphere and the free flowing nature of it.

 

[morehockeystats]

McCurdy has done some work with NHL teams, and the experience prompted him to become completely financially independent through his subscriber base so he never has to do that again, iirc.

IIRC Micah has said something similar when asked why he still works in the public sphere. I'm also paraphrasing, but, he's also mentioned that he enjoys working in the public sphere and the free flowing nature of it.

From what I observed from personal interactions with Micah on the number of conferences our paths crossed, I don't think his temper and his attitude would fit most of the hockey teams. He's a brilliant mathematician, no doubt about it.