Speculation: McDavid's rumored extension and what it means for Johansen

[Persona5]

With McDavid's extension numbers coming out today and it being reported to be around 13.25M per year over 8 year how do you think that will affect contract talks with Johanson?

Now I know Ryjo isn't going to be asking for something that high but I do think it could affect his contract talks a bit. I know 7-8m per year has been thrown around a good bit but I really think it is going to be higher than this. Subban makes 9m per year and is currently our highest contract. Ryjo took Toews behind the woodshed in round 1 of the playoffs and we all know how that ended up. Toews is making 10.5m a year right now. I can see Ryjo getting as much as 9.5m a year honestly.

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[Armourboy]

I can see it going above 8 but I don't think it will get near 9. I'm hoping he does factor in wanting the team to be competitive vs him just making a ton of money, but some guys don't care.

 

[Jonesey]

Johansen would be wise to take 8 x 8. Mutually beneficial to all parties.

 

[alexmanu]

Joey will end up making around 9m per. He's only 24 and I think has scope to score significantly more points, especially if Forsberg puts together a full season of scoring with him. He's our most important forward by far (Forsberg the second most important, obviously). But it will be up to term. If it's a 5 year then you're looking at 9m per, longer term will reduce the annual amount.

We have cap flexibility and will have even more if/when we can get some guys like Smith off the books.

As someone above said, sign him for eight years!

 

[Gh24]

He's more than his point totals, but when looking for comparables, points are one area of debate, no? How does Johansen compare to other centers in advanced stats?

Could we be looking at 8x6? Johansen might want to be able to sign a new deal when still in his prime (30).

 

[Enoch]

No way he gets 9. I seriously doubt 8. 7 million or around there.

 

[Drake744]

As much as I love Joey, 9 million a year for a guy with his past point production sets a bad precedent going forward across the whole league. He's not in that category. McDavid is a generational talent, he shouldn't move the scale like this simply based on what he's gonna sign for. He's a special exception.

 

[King Weber]

He's more than his point totals, but when looking for comparables, points are one area of debate, no? How does Johansen compare to other centers in advanced stats?

Could we be looking at 8x6? Johansen might want to be able to sign a new deal when still in his prime (30).

Lets look at a guy like MacKinnon. He signed for 6,300,000 for 7 years. You look at their advanced stats and MacKinnon is really similar to Johansen, except MacKinnon shoots a lot more while being a bit worse shot suppression wise.

Then you look at Monahan. Also signed a 7 year 6,375,000 million deal last season as well. Monahan shoots and scores more than Joey, but Joey is the better of the two playmaking and shot suppression wise.

Scheifele too signed a new contract last season for 8 years and 6,125,000. Scheifele was a bit better than Johansen at everything this season except shot suppression.
He was also a point per game player, so had he been an RFA this season instead, no doubt he would've gotten more than that.

MacKinnon, Monahan and Scheifele signed their contracts after a 52, 63 and 61 pt seasons and Johansen just finished a season with 61 pts, and pretty much every center in the league (except Stamkos) that makes over 8 million per year has signed their contracts after a season where they were point per game or better OR close to point per game and being elite defensively (Toews, Kopitar), and I don't think Johansen, as much as I like him, fits either of these categories.. at least not yet.

Something around 6,5-7,5 per year sounds fair to me.

 

[Enoch]

Lets look at a guy like MacKinnon. He signed for 6,300,000 for 7 years. You look at their advanced stats and MacKinnon is really similar to Johansen, except MacKinnon shoots a lot more while being a bit worse shot suppression wise.

Then you look at Monahan. Also signed a 7 year 6,375,000 million deal last season as well. Monahan shoots and scores more than Joey, but Joey is the better of the two playmaking and shot suppression wise.

Scheifele too signed a new contract last season for 8 years and 6,125,000. Scheifele was a bit better than Johansen at everything this season except shot suppression.
He was also a point per game player, so had he been an RFA this season instead, no doubt he would've gotten more than that.

MacKinnon, Monahan and Scheifele signed their contracts after a 52, 63 and 61 pt seasons and Johansen just finished a season with 61 pts, and pretty much every center in the league (except Stamkos) that makes over 8 million per year has signed their contracts after a season where they were point per game or better OR close to point per game and being elite defensively (Toews, Kopitar), and I don't think Johansen, as much as I like him, fits either of these categories.. at least not yet.

Something around 6,5-7,5 per year sounds fair to me.

Perfect post.

 

[BigFatCat999]

For Joey I budget 8 for 8. Please note normally I overshoot based on what Poile usually gets. Usually 250K per million. So if Poile can get 8 years at 6-6.5 I will do cartwheels. And I''m a 246lb man so that would be impressive. If it's 6.5 and Poile pays 4.5 for Arvidsson, I'm a very happy dude.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

I don't think Johansen is signing for 6.5, no chance. All of those other deals ate up multiple RFA years, Johansen has 1 RFA year left. 7.5 minimum most likely.

 

[Jonesey]

For Joey I budget 8 for 8. Please note normally I overshoot based on what Poile usually gets. Usually 250K per million. So if Poile can get 8 years at 6-6.5 I will do cartwheels. And I''m a 246lb man so that would be impressive. If it's 6.5 and Poile pays 4.5 for Arvidsson, I'm a very happy dude.

4.5 for arvidsson screams mistake IMO.

 

[Armourboy]

I don't think Johansen is signing for 6.5, no chance. All of those other deals ate up multiple RFA years, Johansen has 1 RFA year left. 7.5 minimum most likely.

Yeah I would guess his agent starts at 9 and then Poile will probably counter with 6 and it will end up somewhere in the middle.

 

[Gh24]

Thank you for comparisons. That's what I was looking for.

I still think that Johansen's skill to shut down top talent brings him to 7 at least.

 

[Drake744]

6 years, 7.25 AAV

 

[Patagonia]

RYJO was traded after a few seasons after he turned down $6M per for 8 year contract. This would have been nearly double every NHL player with the same years of service.

Comparables like MacKinnon, Barkov and Monaghan, Jones $6M-$6.5m per. Draistl is being rumoured at $8M-$9M per from benefiting with McDavid, he'll be looking at approx the same range.

Past history, he showed being difficult with his contract and expect problems getting him to resign.

 

[Preds Partisan]

Columbus was a train wreck, Nashville is Western Conference champs, different situations. He likes it in Nashville, not so much Columbus.

 

[Drake744]

RYJO was traded after a few seasons after he turned down $6M per for 8 year contract. This would have been nearly double every NHL player with the same years of service.

Comparables like MacKinnon, Barkov and Monaghan, Jones $6M-$6.5m per. Draistl is being rumoured at $8M-$9M per from benefiting with McDavid, he'll be looking at approx the same range.

Past history, he showed being difficult with his contract and expect problems getting him to resign.

He always had issues in Columbus. Just never seemed to be a great fit as far as being comfortable there. I think it'll be relatively simple but he's definitely gonna look out for himself. I've got a buddy who has been an equipment manager for two SEC football teams, and from that he knows a guy who works in the Preds locker room, and that dude said he wants to be in Nashville for a long time. And this was before last season even started. I don't think he has any interest in going anywhere even if there's a little bit of pushback with a contract offer. I think everything about this latest playoff run solidified that. Hell, he was even named honorary Mayor of Nashville for a day during the Final. Can't walk away from that haha.

 

[bdub24]

Columbus, Oh or Nashville, Tn. Yeah. It's no contest. It's sort of funny it's even being compared. Ryan J absolutely has a pay raise coming to him. The only question is how hard Poile is going to play. My guess is Ryan gets real close to his asking because of his fit in the new system.

 

[INDhockeyfan]

Columbus, Oh or Nashville, Tn. Yeah. It's no contest. It's sort of funny it's even being compared. Ryan J absolutely has a pay raise coming to him. The only question is how hard Poile is going to play. My guess is Ryan gets real close to his asking because of his fit in the new system.

His qualifying offer is 6M because that was his actual salary last season as his contract was backloaded on the last year. That is the minimum he will get. I was always figuring that it would be 8M and anything less would be a great deal.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

He's more than his point totals, but when looking for comparables, points are one area of debate, no? How does Johansen compare to other centers in advanced stats?

Could we be looking at 8x6? Johansen might want to be able to sign a new deal when still in his prime (30).

Johansen's advanced stats were among one of the best in the leauge both overall and relative this season, he was that good. His actual defensive play didn't match his amazing advanced stats, I mean it was great defense, but his advanced stats should say elite defense, which we can all agree he didn't provide. Although Craig Smith and Panarin both have fantastic advanced stats and we can all agree from an actual defensive perspective Smith and Panarin are not good lol.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Since Edmonton is going through cap hell, let's find a way to pry RNH for Craig Smith (I'd even retain) haha.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Lets look at a guy like MacKinnon. He signed for 6,300,000 for 7 years. You look at their advanced stats and MacKinnon is really similar to Johansen, except MacKinnon shoots a lot more while being a bit worse shot suppression wise.

Then you look at Monahan. Also signed a 7 year 6,375,000 million deal last season as well. Monahan shoots and scores more than Joey, but Joey is the better of the two playmaking and shot suppression wise.

Scheifele too signed a new contract last season for 8 years and 6,125,000. Scheifele was a bit better than Johansen at everything this season except shot suppression.
He was also a point per game player, so had he been an RFA this season instead, no doubt he would've gotten more than that.

MacKinnon, Monahan and Scheifele signed their contracts after a 52, 63 and 61 pt seasons and Johansen just finished a season with 61 pts, and pretty much every center in the league (except Stamkos) that makes over 8 million per year has signed their contracts after a season where they were point per game or better OR close to point per game and being elite defensively (Toews, Kopitar), and I don't think Johansen, as much as I like him, fits either of these categories.. at least not yet.

Something around 6,5-7,5 per year sounds fair to me.

Yeah I agree. Johansen's advanced stats this season were fantastic, but his actual defensive play was simply just great not elite. His offense also wasn't that strong overall, especially goal scoring. Also, take note from 2013-2017 Johansen's advanced stats aren't particularly impressive. Take out the 2016-2017 season, and Johansen's advanced and actual stats when zone adjusted are even less impressive and his advanced stats are worse relative to his team mates. And from what I've watched Johansen always plays worse defense than what his advanced stats say, so yeah Johansen didn't develop into a 2-way stud until this season basically.

 

[triggrman]

How did Kane's or Ovechkins salary impact Forsberg?

that's how I see McDavid's salary impacting Johansen.

 

[token grinder]

How did Kane's or Ovechkins salary impact Forsberg?

that's how I see McDavid's salary impacting Johansen.

Exactly-generational players usually get a couple million more than they are worth.

In todays salary cap world, you can kinda peg players by their points.

Johansen is a 70-80 point player. He will get 7-8 Mil
Fisher will still get 4 mil if he gets his market value. Term will be shorter, but that is what he could command for a year, maybe two.

Guys that are RFAs will get less. If Arvy was a FA, he would get 5 mil a year. You can cut that in half in his RFA years. His increase will depend on if we buy a year or two of his FA years.