News Article: Maybe Arizona should trade Taylor Hall?

[Grimes]

Thing that sucks though is that I’ve generally liked the Crouse-Step-Kessel line. Felt like Crouse had almost kick started the other two for a couple of games there but we obviously can’t have Keller and Schmaltz be performing so poorly so you probably have to split that line up

Agreed, and this is where things get tricky. I'm hoping Kessel comes back rested, healthy and ready to return to a near PPG player. That sure would help. If he can carry his weight on PP and 5v5 scoring maybe we can accept some of his defensive lapses. Keller has the most offensive zone starts. We could try throwing the two with Soda again and see if they finally click. Or maybe even Hayton.

 

[rt]

Agreed, and this is where things get tricky. I'm hoping Kessel comes back rested, healthy and ready to return to a near PPG player. That sure would help. If he can carry his weight on PP and 5v5 scoring maybe we can accept some of his defensive lapses. Keller has the most offensive zone starts. We could try throwing the two with Soda again and see if they finally click. Or maybe even Hayton.

I want to see 25 points out of each of Keller, Schmaltz and Kessel in the final 31 games.

That’s only 66pt pace over 82gp. They should be able to manage that during this crucial stretch. Now that they’re acclimated and healthy and rested and hiding behind Hall, there’s no excuse for them to fail to produce at 66pt pace for the final 31gp.

 

[Jakey53]

I want to see 25 points out of each of Keller, Schmaltz and Kessel in the final 31 games.

That’s only 66pt pace over 82gp. They should be able to manage that during this crucial stretch. Now that they’re acclimated and healthy and rested and hiding behind Hall, there’s no excuse for them to fail to produce at 66pt pace for the final 31gp.

I'm sure someone will find an excuse if those three don't produce at that rate.

 

[_Del_]

They all look like 50 pt players to me, and less lately. So that's going to be a feat.

 

[cobra427]

I want to see 25 points out of each of Keller, Schmaltz and Kessel in the final 31 games.

That’s only 66pt pace over 82gp. They should be able to manage that during this crucial stretch. Now that they’re acclimated and healthy and rested and hiding behind Hall, there’s no excuse for them to fail to produce at 66pt pace for the final 31gp.

I can see Kessel on that pace because he has done it before through many seasons. Keller has done it once, and I don't think Schmaltz has ever done it. That is a tall order for the 3 to gather 75 points, I think 60 points or 20 each is more realistic.

 

[rt]

I can see Kessel on that pace because he has done it before through many seasons. Keller has done it once, and I don't think Schmaltz has ever done it. That is a tall order for the 3 to gather 75 points, I think 60 points or 20 each is more realistic.

So you expect Keller and Schmaltz to produce at a lower rate over the last 31 games than they did over the first 51 games? Got it. Set the bar high! Haha.

 

[cobra427]

So you expect Keller and Schmaltz to produce at a lower rate over the last 31 games than they did over the first 51 games? Got it. Set the bar high! Haha.

.7 PPG pace which is where there are at now, no reason to think it will get better. They both end up in the 52-56 point range, close to right in between Kellers last 2 years, and right on Schmaltz's best year. I am being realistic, but I hope they both get to 60 points Kessel has the best shot to out score both of them since he has done it many times.

 

[rt]

.7 PPG pace which is where there are at now, no reason to think it will get better. They both end up in the 52-56 point range, close to right in between Kellers last 2 years, and right on Schmaltz's best year. I am being realistic, but I hope they both get to 60 points Kessel has the best shot to out score both of them since he has done it many times.

What? 20/31 = 64%
Keller = 65% this season
Schmaltz = 69% this season

You’re not bothering to use your calculator app and it’s annoying.

 

[Jakey53]

I can see Kessel on that pace because he has done it before through many seasons. Keller has done it once, and I don't think Schmaltz has ever done it. That is a tall order for the 3 to gather 75 points, I think 60 points or 20 each is more realistic.

That's the problem when you look at an older players stats and think they can do it again because they did it in the past. Sooner or later they fall off of that cliff and never get back up. Kessel could be at that age, and playing with lesser talent might be too much to ask of him. Schmaltz is at a 0.69 PPG, Keller is 0.65PPG and Kessel is at 0.61PPG. Teams will be playing much tighter in the second half than the first, so if they can each hit 60 pts. like you say, that would be pretty good.

 

[Jakey53]

So you expect Keller and Schmaltz to produce at a lower rate over the last 31 games than they did over the first 51 games? Got it. Set the bar high! Haha.

That's a possibility. Those two going cold could be the combination of effort and other teams playing them much tighter and more physical. They have 30 games to show what they are made of.

 

[rt]

That's a possibility. Those two going cold could be the combination of effort and other teams playing them much tighter and more physical. They have 30 games to show what they are made of.

If those losers only manage 20pts in the last 31gp they should be traded. And by a GM that is not John Chayka. For new players. That will play for a coach that is not Rick Tocchet.

 

[PainForShane]

If those losers only manage 20pts in the last 31gp they should be traded. And by a GM that is not John Chayka. For new players. That will play for a coach that is not Rick Tocchet.

If Keller / Schmaltz manage only 20 points in 31 GP good luck finding a team that will take on anything close to their contracts. Said it before but we're essentially stuck with them, which is why we need both of these guys to produce both now and in the long term. All for shuffling lines / doing everything we can to get these guys going

Capfriendly link ($ value and term): Arizona Coyotes - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Look, you guys have to realize that playing for the Coyotes is like a 20% damper on pt totals. Other teams would jump at the chance to get Keller or Schmaltz.

Young guys on long term deals, they would be coveted. Now, if after 2 more seasons of sub standard scoring, yeah...then there contracts would be looked at as unfavorable, but right now, they would be coveted.

 

[Jamieh]

Look, you guys have to realize that playing for the Coyotes is like a 20% damper on pt totals. Other teams would jump at the chance to get Keller or Schmaltz.

Young guys on long term deals, they would be coveted. Now, if after 2 more seasons of sub standard scoring, yeah...then there contracts would be looked at as unfavorable, but right now, they would be coveted.

I'm not ready to get rid of either but I doubt you would be getting much in return for long term contracted players at $5.9 and $7 million who don't look like they can crack 60 points. Their opportunity for ice time would probably decrease on most teams with that production and not many teams want that level of salary for players who need someone else to do the heavy lifting. But they are still young enough to figure it out.....

 

[Jakey53]

I'm not ready to get rid of either but I doubt you would be getting much in return for long term contracted players at $5.9 and $7 million who don't look like they can crack 60 points. Their opportunity for ice time would probably decrease on most teams with that production and not many teams want that level of salary for players who need someone else to do the heavy lifting. But they are still young enough to figure it out.....

Yup. We forget how young they are. Us fans are so impatient.

 

[cobra427]

What? 20/31 = 64%
Keller = 65% this season
Schmaltz = 69% this season

You’re not bothering to use your calculator app and it’s annoying.

There is not much difference between the dead on accurate combined PPG of .67 versus .7, I rounded Close enough.

 

[cobra427]

That's the problem when you look at an older players stats and think they can do it again because they did it in the past. Sooner or later they fall off of that cliff and never get back up. Kessel could be at that age, and playing with lesser talent might be too much to ask of him. Schmaltz is at a 0.69 PPG, Keller is 0.65PPG and Kessel is at 0.61PPG. Teams will be playing much tighter in the second half than the first, so if they can each hit 60 pts. like you say, that would be pretty good.

I know Kessel is older and longer term Schmaltz/Keller are better players. For the next 31 games, my bet is that Kessel has enough in the tank, he is not that old, has a history of producing when it counts, to out score Keller or Kessel, all I am saying.

 

[rt]

Look, you guys have to realize that playing for the Coyotes is like a 20% damper on pt totals. Other teams would jump at the chance to get Keller or Schmaltz.

Young guys on long term deals, they would be coveted. Now, if after 2 more seasons of sub standard scoring, yeah...then there contracts would be looked at as unfavorable, but right now, they would be coveted.

Of course Keller had a sophomore slump. There’s no talent in AZ.

Of course Schmaltz can’t keep up with Strome. There’s no talent in AZ.

Of course Kessel’s production will drop. There’s no talent in AZ.

Hall in AZ? What’s the point? No talent. Right?

 

[Coyotedroppings]

Yup. We forget how young they are. Us fans are so impatient.

It would seem so. I tire of reading all the absurdity, but still come back.

 

[Mangosteen]

I like the new lines. Schmaltz or Keller should turn it up. Kessel will keep pace. Also dear Yotes fans please please take a couple of steps back from the cliff

 

[XX]

If those losers only manage 20pts in the last 31gp they should be traded. And by a GM that is not John Chayka. For new players. That will play for a coach that is not Rick Tocchet.

Chayka doesn't coach the players so I don't know why you'd fire him over a small sample size. You never know what you have with your core until they show you what they're made of. If they can't make the playoffs with this roster down the stretch then there is no real core to build from and a new coach is needed as well.

The Coyotes system naturally suppresses production 5v5. Schmaltz and Keller still have great deals even if they top out at 60 points or so.

If Keller / Schmaltz manage only 20 points in 31 GP good luck finding a team that will take on anything close to their contracts. Said it before but we're essentially stuck with them, which is why we need both of these guys to produce both now and in the long term. All for shuffling lines / doing everything we can to get these guys going

Capfriendly link ($ value and term): Arizona Coyotes - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Plenty of teams will take them because they're young, cost controlled assets that are paid below market value.

Kessel and Stepan have bad contracts, not Keller and Schmaltz. You guys are hilarious sometimes.

 

[Coyotedroppings]

Chayka doesn't coach the players so I don't know why you'd fire him over a small sample size. You never know what you have with your core until they show you what they're made of. If they can't make the playoffs with this roster down the stretch then there is no real core to build from and a new coach is needed as well.

The Coyotes system naturally suppresses production 5v5. Schmaltz and Keller still have great deals even if they top out at 60 points or so.



Plenty of teams will take them because they're young, cost controlled assets that are paid below market value.

Kessel and Stepan have bad contracts, not Keller and Schmaltz. You guys are hilarious sometimes.

Agree with this, but what about their system do you think suppresses 5v5 production.
They have a difficult time transitioning from zone D to a decent breakout. They also don't sustain o zone pressure often enough, but I think that is more on the players than the system imo. The former could be the system, but it's not uncommon in the league, so I'd chalk it up to execution, with the latter being more of an unwillingness.

 

[PainForShane]

Plenty of teams will take them because they're young, cost controlled assets that are paid below market value.

Kessel and Stepan have bad contracts, not Keller and Schmaltz. You guys are hilarious sometimes.

I hope you're right. Keller in particular is young but to me he looks worse than he did his rookie year and has not yet trended in the right direction (at least not nearly enough to feel comfortable with his cap hit). Again I hope you're right, if Keller earns his money I'll be the happiest fan in the world.

For others following, Keller will have a cap hit of 7.15m next year (for the next 8 years). His cap hit is 58th highest in the entire league (which includes goalies and D), this season he's currently tied for 95th in the league in overall scoring (higher than I originally thought actually), I didn't index his production for GP but it gets the point across just as well.

Keller cap hit: Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Keller's stats: NHL.com Stats

Keller's cap hit is more than long term deals signed by similar aged / better producing players such as Konecny, William Nylander, Provorov, as well as ppl like Laine, Matt Tkachuk, Brayden Point, Debrincat who are all on bridge deals. Keller's cap hit looks much worse when you take a look at deals signed just a few years prior such Pastrnak, MacK, Huberdeau who will all have less of a cap hit (link above from capfriendly)

Are you still sure we signed Keller for below market? I think we overpaid by quite a bit which dramatically increases expectations (perhaps unreasonably) especially for someone so young

 

[PainForShane]

Kessel and Stepan have bad contracts, not Keller and Schmaltz. You guys are hilarious sometimes.

I actually don't mind Kessel / Stepan's contracts as much because they'll be off the books in a few years. Keller and Schmaltz we have for 7-8 more years. Huge risk to take, would have been much more comfortable with bridge deals even at the same cap hit (even though I do think the current cap hit for Keller in particular is far too high)

 

[XX]

Keller's cap hit is more than long term deals signed by similar aged / better producing players such as Konecny, William Nylander, Provorov, as well as ppl like Laine, Matt Tkachuk, Brayden Point, Debrincat who are all on bridge deals. Keller's cap hit looks much worse when you take a look at deals signed just a few years prior such Pastrnak, MacK, Huberdeau who will all have less of a cap hit (link above from capfriendly)

Are you still sure we signed Keller for below market? I think we overpaid by quite a bit which dramatically increases expectations (perhaps unreasonably) for someone so young

1. You can't compare Keller's deal to deals that came previously, under different circumstances and cap numbers. All that matters is his pay rate relative to the total cap aka his % of cap taken. Someone like MacK is comically underpaid.

2. Keller's cap hit is "more" because he is signed for the entirety of his prime (8 years!) and only gets a NMC his last two years of the deal. This deal hasn't even kicked in yet.

$7.1m is not a spooky scary number in a world where someone like Jeff Skinner is getting paid $9M a year on the open market with way more miles and damage on his body. It's basically the same AAV Kevin Hayes got.

Keller hasn't even turned 22 year and plays on a hodgepodge team that prioritizes defense. Every team in the league would love to have him as a signed asset, so the Coyotes are in no way "stuck" with this contract. He is already at or near what similar production would get on the open market and he still has 8 years to go. The team loves his personality and work ethic behind the scenes which is why they gave him (and others like Dvo and Chych) such a deal. These deals are also the only way the Coyotes can be competitive in the long run. Signing guys at the last possible moment when they have all the leverage always results in a big overpay. We discussed this at length in the thread specifically for this contract.

Teams hand out bad contracts all the time to guys with very limited tread left on their tires. They overpay in dollars, term, and take on an incredible amount of risk in the process. See Lucic, Ladd, Backes etc...

Teams should be a lot more loose with their U25 players that are essentially being signed for their entire prime. They represent less risk and the odds you recapture cap value via inflation are much, much higher.

The cap will continue to rise with a new TV deal and the addition of Seattle. Keller's contract is already good and will become great a few years from now. This is a player that can absolutely explode into a PPG+ producer in the right situation with some development. Sure beats paying Derek "BL" Stepan $6.5m.

I actually don't mind Kessel / Stepan's contracts as much because they'll be off the books in a few years. Keller and Schmaltz we have for 7-8 more years. Huge risk to take, would have been much more comfortable with bridge deals even at the same cap hit (even though I do think the current cap hit for Keller in particular is far too high)

A signed player is a controlled asset that has a certain amount of trade value. Schmaltz, for example, has a nice AAV and is a desireable RHS that can put up a PPG in the right situation. That has value. These are not bad contracts.