Confirmed with Link: MacTavish and Van Ryn gone

[Ted Hoffman]

I wouldn't be shocked in Bannister stays as the AHL HC and gets the NHL job IF Berube gets fired next season. This is something teams have done, promoting AHL head coaches to the NHL job midseason. Like Woodcroft in EDM or Keefe in TOR.

Right, but that goes in cycles. Someone gets promoted from the AHL and has great success in the NHL, other teams start doing the same. Someone comes out of major juniors and has great success in the NHL, other teams ... you know. Someone comes out of the NCAA and ...... yeah, that too.

If we finally get to the point that we decide Berube has to go, I'd rather we do that comprehensive search Armstrong talked passionately about doing when he fired Yeo in November 2018. If we're at the point that "rebuild" or "retool" is in the plans, take the time and figure all of that out and get it right - don't half-ass it on the fly and hope if you keep throwing shit at the wall, you eventually end up with a Van Gogh.

 

[Louie the Blue]

Right, but that goes in cycles. Someone gets promoted from the AHL and has great success in the NHL, other teams start doing the same. Someone comes out of major juniors and has great success in the NHL, other teams ... you know. Someone comes out of the NCAA and ...... yeah, that too.

If we finally get to the point that we decide Berube has to go, I'd rather we do that comprehensive search Armstrong talked passionately about doing when he fired Yeo in November 2018. If we're at the point that "rebuild" or "retool" is in the plans, take the time and figure all of that out and get it right - don't half-ass it on the fly and hope if you keep throwing shit at the wall, you eventually end up with a Van Gogh.

I'm going to use 2000 - present illustrate my point.

Since 2000, the following coaches have won a Stanley Cup after being promoted mid-season the same year they won a cup as an interim coach or were promoted in a prior year in the off-season from the AHL or as an assistant within the organization in a different year(e.g., Tortorella was promoted as an assistant in 2000-2001 to HC with TB before winning a Cup in 2004):

Robinson
Hartley
Carlyle
Bylsma
Sullivan (x2)
Berube
Cooper (x2)
Bednar

I don't think it really matters if a team does a full blown search or not as long as who they hire is a good coach.

Whether or not Berube was who Armstrong envisioned and planned to succeed Yeo long-term is irrelevant due to the mostly positive results of his tenure in St. Louis as HC.

 

[ezcreepin]

I honestly couldn't care less who is hired as long as the defensive structure has a massive change. I'm over the collapsing methods we've used for years now and it isn't working with this personnel. Carolina has done a great job with creating strategies that fit their defenseman and it seems like anyone can step in and be successful - that is what I'm looking for. If we are going to be tied down to guys like Scandella and Krug, at least make them effective in the system. As far as the powerplay goes, we have the talent to be top 10 in the league, but I think we need to stop continuously setting up on the half walls and start moving the puck more quickly, taking more point shots regardless of position, and set up plays that frees up a player in the slot to create a quick shot or one-timer. All of these should be relatively simple things to fix, but they aren't happening, which is increasingly frustrating.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'm going to use 2000 - present illustrate my point.

Since 2000, the following coaches have won a Stanley Cup after being promoted mid-season the same year they won a cup as an interim coach or were promoted in a prior year in the off-season from the AHL or as an assistant within the organization in a different year(e.g., Tortorella was promoted as an assistant in 2000-2001 to HC with TB before winning a Cup in 2004):

Robinson
Hartley
Carlyle
Bylsma
Sullivan (x2)
Berube
Cooper (x2)
Bednar

I don't think it really matters if a team does a full blown search or not as long as who they hire is a good coach.

My point, which you didn't get and so I'll spell out in full, is that much like teams adjusting their playing styles to match whatever the most recent Cup winner did, coaching hires go in cycles and tend to chase after what someone else did. While you can list off 8 coaches who satisfied the criteria you lay out, I can name 6 others (Pat Burns, Peter Laviolette, Joel Quenneville, Claude Julien, Darryl Sutter, Barry Trotz) who won a cumulative 9 Cups who were previously NHL head coaches before the job where they won a Cup, without an AHL stop in between. Should a team wanting to have Stanley Cup hopes chase an AHL head coach, or a coach who just came off their NHL gig? Cause ... it's a pretty even split there.

Further, while Cooper, Bednar, Laviolette, Hartley and Tortorella (and Trotz) all won a Calder Cup before going on to win a Stanley Cup, presumably good coaches like Bruce Boudreau, Todd McLellan, Jeff Blashill and Willie Desjardins also won a Calder Cup and never got close to a Stanley Cup. [In the case of Blashill and Desjardins, never got close to getting close to it and each of them were hyped as up-and-coming smart coaches with bright futures as NHL head coaches.] Sheldon Keefe is TBD. What do we make of that?

Countless other coaches were promoted out of the AHL to be NHL head coaches and never had success. Do we ignore that for the 8 select success stories? And if so, can you or anyone else explain how we're supposed to know if Bannister or whoever else is going to be #9 in that select list, or part of the Boudreau / Blashill list, or part of the "oh yeah, they also came up and coached in the NHL ... and were pretty forgettable" list?

Whether or not Berube was who Armstrong envisioned and planned to succeed Yeo long-term is irrelevant due to the mostly positive results of his tenure in St. Louis as HC.

This is where I have an issue with some conclusions that get drawn. both in this forum and on this site and elsewhere. The fact that poor or inadequate decision making still leads to a great outcome doesn't somehow validate the decision making that took place.

How did we know before November 20, 2018 that Craig Berube was a good coach? We didn't. He got hired because we needed someone to take over short-term while we got to the offseason, where we'd presumably do the full-fledged search for the "right" coach. Looking at people's comments the last few years, one could put together a decent argument that Berube still isn't a "good" coach, he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and circumstances all came together in a magical way such that we won the Cup.

 

[Louie the Blue]

My point, which you didn't get and so I'll spell out in full, is that much like teams adjusting their playing styles to match whatever the most recent Cup winner did, coaching hires go in cycles and tend to chase after what someone else did. While you can list off 8 coaches who satisfied the criteria you lay out, I can name 6 others (Pat Burns, Peter Laviolette, Joel Quenneville, Claude Julien, Darryl Sutter, Barry Trotz) who won a cumulative 9 Cups who were previously NHL head coaches before the job where they won a Cup, without an AHL stop in between. Should a team wanting to have Stanley Cup hopes chase an AHL head coach, or a coach who just came off their NHL gig? Cause ... it's a pretty even split there.

Further, while Cooper, Bednar, Laviolette, Hartley and Tortorella (and Trotz) all won a Calder Cup before going on to win a Stanley Cup, presumably good coaches like Bruce Boudreau, Todd McLellan, Jeff Blashill and Willie Desjardins also won a Calder Cup and never got close to a Stanley Cup. [In the case of Blashill and Desjardins, never got close to getting close to it and each of them were hyped as up-and-coming smart coaches with bright futures as NHL head coaches.] Sheldon Keefe is TBD. What do we make of that?

Countless other coaches were promoted out of the AHL to be NHL head coaches and never had success. Do we ignore that for the 8 select success stories? And if so, can you or anyone else explain how we're supposed to know if Bannister or whoever else is going to be #9 in that select list, or part of the Boudreau / Blashill list, or part of the "oh yeah, they also came up and coached in the NHL ... and were pretty forgettable" list?


This is where I have an issue with some conclusions that get drawn. both in this forum and on this site and elsewhere. The fact that poor or inadequate decision making still leads to a great outcome doesn't somehow validate the decision making that took place.

How did we know before November 20, 2018 that Craig Berube was a good coach? We didn't. He got hired because we needed someone to take over short-term while we got to the offseason, where we'd presumably do the full-fledged search for the "right" coach. Looking at people's comments the last few years, one could put together a decent argument that Berube still isn't a "good" coach, he just happened to be in the right place at the right time and circumstances all came together in a magical way such that we won the Cup.

I can't tell you if someone's going to succeed or not based on coming from the AHL or an assistant. My point was hiring a coach, regardless of background, is a crapshoot and there are different ways of finding a good coach. I don't view if a hire comes from within the organization or not as being a good or bad thing.

With regards to your point about getting the right result from the wrong approach, I'm not sure I follow? Do I think Berube would've been retained full-time if the Blues missed the POs? Probably not. Do I think he'd have been retained if they made the POs but not the cup? Yes. The only coach I can think of in recent history that wasn't retained after being an interim coach and making the POs was Brunette (which I'd argue Florida should have kept him over hiring Maurice). It's also hard for me to evaluate a coach in general, whether it's Berube or someone else or a coach in another sport (aside from maybe football or basketball), given how team sports work. Berube deserves some credit obviously for the successes and failures of the Blues since November 20, 2018, as does Armstrong, but at the end of the day players have to perform and play well. And the two seasons in which the team performed poorly (2020-2021 and 2022-2023) were more based on roster flaws exacerbated by injuries (2020-2021. The team was playing multiple AHL defensemen in the POs vs the Avs. That team had no business being in the POs either based on how the roster was constructed) or regression combined with a weird defensive structure (2022-2023. I don't think the team was as bad as it was this year because of anything Berube did, but more-so the roster regressing from its absolute peak under comparable structure in 2021-2022 and the known issues with the defense).

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I can't tell you if someone's going to succeed or not based on coming from the AHL or an assistant. My point was hiring a coach, regardless of background, is a crapshoot and there are different ways of finding a good coach. I don't view if a hire comes from within the organization or not as being a good or bad thing.

Right, then we agree. Which goes back to my point: if you're going to try and find "the right coach" at the same time as you're purportedly going to do a "soft reboot" or whatever, at least try to go about it all as smartly as possible, which means planning and thinking things out and making the best decisions you can instead of just shotgunning decisions from the hip and hoping they work out.

Which means "don't just reach for the guy in the AHL because he's there and had success for a season or two."

With regards to your point about getting the right result from the wrong approach, I'm not sure I follow? Do I think Berube would've been retained full-time if the Blues missed the POs? Probably not. Do I think he'd have been retained if they made the POs but not the cup? Yes.

You're following, but I'm not sure Berube gets the full-time gig without the broader search if we merely just make the playoffs. Yes, nice accomplishment, feather in his cap and all that. Our goals were much higher than "just make the playoffs" though; "made the playoffs" in and of itself wouldn't have been sufficient.

Make the Finals? Make the Conference Finals? Probably tilts more heavily toward him, chances of avoiding a broader search decline. Anything below that? Armstrong is interviewing major junior head coaches, European head coaches, college head coaches, ...

 

[Louie the Blue]

Right, then we agree. Which goes back to my point: if you're going to try and find "the right coach" at the same time as you're purportedly going to do a "soft reboot" or whatever, at least try to go about it all as smartly as possible, which means planning and thinking things out and making the best decisions you can instead of just shotgunning decisions from the hip and hoping they work out.

Which means "don't just reach for the guy in the AHL because he's there and had success for a season or two."


You're following, but I'm not sure Berube gets the full-time gig without the broader search if we merely just make the playoffs. Yes, nice accomplishment, feather in his cap and all that. Our goals were much higher than "just make the playoffs" though; "made the playoffs" in and of itself wouldn't have been sufficient.

Make the Finals? Make the Conference Finals? Probably tilts more heavily toward him, chances of avoiding a broader search decline. Anything below that? Armstrong is interviewing major junior head coaches, European head coaches, college head coaches, ...

I don't think they were reaching for Berube, though. Yes, he was supposed to be the interim coach and was promoted from AHL HC to assistant to interim in part because of his success and relationship building and development in Chicago. But things played out the way they did and I don't think many people in that circumstance, in good faith, would have a full fledged interview process given what Berube did. Shit, Ducharme took a weak Canadiens team to the SCF and was made full time HC (before getting fired the next season). It's one of those circumstances where you're damned if you do and damned if you don't with regards to a coach unexpectedly having a significant level of success.

I do agree that when the time comes that I'd hope the Blues do their due diligence in finding a replacement for Berube instead of only promoting Bannister full-time (barring him achieving a super high-level of success similar to 2019).

I know the expectations were high going into 2018-2019 and the early season play really put achieving those goals at risk. I agree that as the regular season or playoff success diminishes, the likelihood of a full blown search increases. I just genuinely can not recall any coach recently that wasn't retained after being an interim coach and leading their team to the POs other than Brunette (excluding Lamoriello serving as interim coach in two consecutive postseasons for the Devils while also being GM).

 

[GoldenSeal]

Moral of the story: Let the dinosaurs go extinct and look to the future.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I don't think they were reaching for Berube, though. Yes, he was supposed to be the interim coach and was promoted from AHL HC to assistant to interim in part because of his success and relationship building and development in Chicago. But things played out the way they did and I don't think many people in that circumstance, in good faith, would have a full fledged interview process given what Berube did. Shit, Ducharme took a weak Canadiens team to the SCF and was made full time HC (before getting fired the next season). It's one of those circumstances where you're damned if you do and damned if you don't with regards to a coach unexpectedly having a significant level of success.

I do agree that when the time comes that I'd hope the Blues do their due diligence in finding a replacement for Berube instead of only promoting Bannister full-time (barring him achieving a super high-level of success similar to 2019).

I know the expectations were high going into 2018-2019 and the early season play really put achieving those goals at risk. I agree that as the regular season or playoff success diminishes, the likelihood of a full blown search increases. I just genuinely can not recall any coach recently that wasn't retained after being an interim coach and leading their team to the POs other than Brunette (excluding Lamoriello serving as interim coach in two consecutive postseasons for the Devils while also being GM).

I think both of you have made some good points in this discussion, but, for me, the bolded is what it boils down to.

I believe DA's comments about an interview process were genuine, but only in the context of the moment; that we sucked ass.

That we turned it around and won the Cup effectively removed a good-faith interview process.

IDK, just my thoughts based on what I think and in response to the above discussion.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I think both of you have made some good points in this discussion, but, for me, the bolded is what it boils down to.

I believe DA's comments about an interview process were genuine, but only in the context of the moment; that we sucked ass.

That we turned it around and won the Cup effectively removed a good-faith interview process.

IDK, just my thoughts based on what I think and in response to the above discussion.

To be clear: I don't disagree with hiring Berube after the Cup win. Going through the described process anyway would have been dumb, and a number of teams would have jumped all over the chance to hire him. In the event we decide to move on from Berube, though, absent another freak repeat "replace and we go run to a Cup" showing, I say go through the full search and find the guy you think is right.

 

[execwrite1]

You fire the assistants when you know the GM (and maybe the head coach) need to be fired but you don't have the nerve to do it.

Better assistant coaching and the same roster will bring the same results next year.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

To be clear: I don't disagree with hiring Berube after the Cup win. Going through the described process anyway would have been dumb, and a number of teams would have jumped all over the chance to hire him. In the event we decide to move on from Berube, though, absent another freak repeat "replace and we go run to a Cup" showing, I say go through the full search and find the guy you think is right.

I agree. I think there is a valid argument to be made that the most prudent thing to do was to not immediately marry ourselves to Berube and conduct a good-faith interview process.

But it just didn't make much sense.

Next time? I agree that a thorough process should be implemented. The NHL needs some coaching innovation. Promoting someone from the same system when the system is somewhat flawed may not be the best course of action.

The poisoned basket analogy comes back to mind.

What I like about this discussion is arguing from a position that I may not necessarily agree with. It helps to elucidate my own thoughts and views.

 

[Xerloris]

You fire the assistants when you know the GM (and maybe the head coach) need to be fired but you don't have the nerve to do it.

Better assistant coaching and the same roster will bring the same results next year.

When the assistant coaches job is defense and we have the worst defense in the league, that's not on the GM or HC, unless the GM chooses to keep said shitty ass Assistants instead of firing them.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

You fire the assistants when you know the GM (and maybe the head coach) need to be fired but you don't have the nerve to do it.

Better assistant coaching and the same roster will bring the same results next year.

Or you fire the assistants when there is data that points to the defense becoming worse and worse every year and those assistants are assigned to defensive schemes.

These firings weren’t done because of lack of nerve. They were done because neither coach helped the team.

 

[Memento]

Good f***ing riddance to MacTavish.

Hope Van Ryn can catch on somewhere.