LW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016, 2nd, WPG) XI

[JA]

Patrik Laine:
Birthdate: April 19, 1998.

2015-16 Liiga Rookie of the Year.
2015-16 Liiga Rookie Goals Leader.
2015-16 Liiga Rookie Points Leader.
2015-16 Liiga Playoff MVP and Champion.
2015-16 Liiga Playoff Goals Leader.
2015-16 Liiga Record Setter for Most Playoff Goals By a Rookie.
2016 World Junior All Star Team.
2016 World Junior Gold Medal.
2016 World Junior Goals Leader.
2015 U-18 All Star Team.
2015 U-18 Silver Medal.
2015 U-18 Goals Leader.
2016 World Championship MVP.
2016 World Championship Silver Medal.
2016 World Championship All-Star Team.
2016 World Championship, IIHF Directorate Award for Best Forward.
2016 World Championship, Award for Top 3 Player on Team.
2016 World Championship Goals Leader.
2016 World Championship Record Setter for Most Goals by a Player in First Year of NHL Draft Eligibility.
2016 World Championship Record Setter for Most Points by a Player in First Year of NHL Draft Eligibility.
Second-Highest Point Total by a U-19 Player at a World Championship Tournament (behind only Sidney Crosby, 2006).

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=221667

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A demonstration of some of Laine's skills with his stick:



Between Liiga, the World Juniors, Champions Hockey League, U20 Four Nations, the World Championship, and several exhibition games, Patrik Laine played 104 games in total during the 2015-16 hockey season (breakdown: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118558927&postcount=976).

On the left, all of Patrik's goals from the 2015-16 Liiga (Finnish Elite League) regular season and other highlights in chronological order.

On the right, Patrik's 2016 Liiga playoff goals, and playoff shift highlights as well, in chronological order.



Liiga Championship post-game celebration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPra8YF0bcE

Laine's 2015 IIHF U-18 tournament highlights (August 2015):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=445JOZMdxSY

Laine's 2016 IIHF U-20 World Junior Championship highlights (December-January 2016):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwf64yOB1wo

Televised World Junior Gold Medal Celebration in Finland [YLE TV; Patrik Laine interview at 48:49 of video] (Finnish language): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2JsZLpjYVo

2016 World Championship highlights (May 2016):

OT shift in exhibition vs USA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws--uda8eGU
Goals #1 and #2 vs Belarus (0:24 and 1:06 of video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYXRD7D33ZE
TSN's Finland-Belarus post-game feature: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIyk1JgyW4E
Goal #3 vs Germany: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpJ-kuXHUIE
Goal #4 vs Germany: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_a2Vk9cQ2M
Crossbar vs USA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAcNREnabHE
Playmaking shift vs USA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo-z15QccV0
Goal #5 vs France: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMc9GaQL4nE
Goal #6 vs Slovakia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c2JIw8lmEk
Record-setting assist vs Hungary (1:43 of video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13J2qm7mifU
Goal #7 vs Denmark (Quarterfinals): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Ca3s-rZxU0
Game-winning assist vs Russia (Semifinals): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3m1QxSlkqWY
Shift highlights from Laine's big performance vs Canada (Round Robin) (considered to be his best game of the tournament): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBOOiCZRXZc



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Due to the length and breadth of information provided in the previous OP, there likely would not be enough space in this OP to continue to provide updates if I simply carried over all of that information into this post. As such, I will link to the previous OP (which we will call OP VIII) here, where a plethora of useful information may be found. You may use it as a resource to learn more about Patrik Laine:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=118557191&postcount=1

Below are the table of contents you will find in that post.

Table of contents:
1. Highlights.
2. Scouts' comments.
3. Additional commentary about Laine's 2015-16 Tappara season -- linemates and scoring logs.
4. Concerning his skating, and Hannu Rautala.
5. Select interview clips.
6. Comparisons in style to Mario Lemieux from scouts and former players.

Click to read more...

 

[ijuka]

Patrik Laine defensive and physical play compilation:

https://streamable.com/efd4

Umm, I meant as a center on USA U-18 team when he was a 16 year old, and on the WJC team in 2015, not statistics wise. Being the leading scorer and setting the records is impressive. Not like Laine passed Granlund and Barkov, who are the two best offensive players the SM-Liiga has produced in recent years.

Oh, u-18? Yes, 4+4=8 when Laine got 8+3=11. This has been covered.

 

[93LEAFS]

So basically there's no difference between players born 364 days apart, depending on their draft season, even though they have played on entirely different seasons and are a year apart in age? That's an interesting study. Are the late birthday players just slower developers without an exception because they take a year longer to get to the same level? This is what you are suggesting, isn't it?

No, it doesn't apply to the top 2 picks in a draft. The divide (or mis-evaluation) seems to occur with players with lower-end ceilings. I'll quote exactly what Pronman said again.

This effect does not seem to occur at the very top of the draft board. Think John Tavares, Victor Hedman, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal and Patrick Kane among many others as examples of elite late-birthdate prospects. For these older players, who have been scouted closely for years, scouts seemed to have zeroed in the right value point for them. This leads me to believe teams aren’t misidentifying who the NHL talents are. Instead, they are valuing older players with lower offensive upside slightly higher than they should be.

So it would matter when we are examining someone like Dante Fabbro vs McCavoy, but with the highly scouted players with very high ceilings, this mis-evaluation doesn't seem to happen at the top of the draft. For example Tavares vs Nathan Mackinnon would be two comparables for #1 overall or Hedman vs Barkov (would be for #2). It seems the age gap only impacts expected return of picks the further you get into a draft.

If you want to see the actual chart, which visably displays this fact, get ESPN insider and read Pronman's article in full, I can't post the graph here without violating copyright.

 

[ijuka]

No, it doesn't apply to the top 2 picks in a draft. The divide (or mis-evaluation) seems to occur with players with lower-end ceilings. I'll quote exactly what Pronman said again.



So it would matter when we are examining someone like Dante Fabbro vs McCavoy, but with the highly scouted players with very high ceilings, this mis-evaluation doesn't seem to happen at the top of the draft. For example Tavares vs Nathan Mackinnon would be two comparables for #1 overall or Hedman vs Barkov (would be for #2). It seems the age gap only impacts expected return of picks the further you get into a draft.

Speaking of Pronman, do you happen to remember who he considers the second-best prospect of the past 5 years behind Connor McDavid?


I looked some years back and we have Hall vs Seguin(late birthday is worse), Nugent-Hopkins vs Landeskog(Late birthday is worse), Reinhart vs Ekblad(late birthday is worse) so that certainly was one interesting study. Obviously, occasionally the late birthday has to be the better player as well, that's just how it works.

 

[vivalavili]

11 pages now, this is damn crazy..

 

[93LEAFS]

Speaking of Pronman, do you happen to remember who he considers the second-best prospect of the past 5 years behind Connor McDavid?

Yeah, but that is not what were discussing. You know who atleast 80% of sources consider the best prospect in the draft? He also considers Puljujarvi, Drouin, Mackinnon and Grigorenko better than Barkov. And in his original list, actually had Nicushkin ahead of him, he likes dem big wingers.

 

[Ippenator]

Umm, I meant as a center on USA U-18 team when he was a 16 year old, and on the WJC team in 2015, not statistics wise. Being the leading scorer and setting the records is impressive. Not like Laine passed Granlund and Barkov, who are the two best offensive players the SM-Liiga has produced in recent years.

No, Laine is the best offensive talent that Finland has ever produced, but the important facts are all the time intentionally forgotten and denied by you. Laine's autumn 2015 was still about him gradually improving his skating and confidence after the injury that ruined his skating and off season training. He was in fact first pretty much played with the defensive third liners because of that. Then by the end of the year he managed to improve his skating immensely and to regain his confidence. And after that all is just history. The kind of history no other draft eligible player has ever been able to match.

You really need to understand that you get the real picture of Laine's magnificent skills when you review his season from the point when he had managed to get his skating to the good level that it is at now. And when he had fully regained his confidence and also achieved the trust and the confidence of his Tappara coach, Jussi Tapola. After that we all saw the magnificent talent, that he was before his nasty knee injury, and he definitely has been after fully recovering from the injury. You obviously don't want to understand or accept these things. But a some point I think that even you will have to give up on your disapproval. I'm sure Laine will prove it to you with his career.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Yes, Keller finished high in the USDP scoring compared to AM, and Laine didn't beat Granlund's high point total. Neither guys are special offensively

Anyways, NHL.com polled 13 NHL scouts asking who'd they pick between Auston and Laine; 11 voted for AM, 2 for Laine. Interesting tidbit from one of the scouts who voted for Laine was his concern regarding Patrik's injury history. Didn't know that was something to be concerned about, maybe a Finnish fan can point out otherwise here.

 

[ijuka]

Yes, Keller finished high in the USDP scoring compared to AM, and Laine didn't beat Granlund's high point total. Neither guys are special offensively

Some of us aren't considering Laine's regular season scoring some amazing achievement but at least it was against men.


There's of course the perspective that he had 27 points in 33 games during that season and then had a slow end to it. Perhaps he was getting tired due to the long season?

 

[IFK]

I want to post this here, so there is some context. Laine played before WJC about 50 games. WJC and after that he really start to produce. Laine in autumn was good but don't produce as much later and games which matter most, still he have good points 17 years old first year FEL, Finnish junior national teams and other games.

Laine was better and better when it comes to this year (he start to get more ice time and PP time in first PP) and games where it matter a most and he shows to be a clutch player, Auston didn't show anything. Autumn was good for Laine, but he didn't produce that much only WJC and after that.

WJC which is tougher competition at least 17 years old playing with other 17 years old and 18 years 2nd rounder (no one could see what they can do and what they did in WJC against players who should be better than them). 7 game 7+6=13 (AM have same age 3 points). This year Laine has FEL regular season 13 games 9+8=17. FEL playoffs 18 games 10+5=15 and then WHC 10 games 7+5=12. No it's not sample size opinion. If we don't look WJC, Laine have this year 41 games and 26+18=44 points so much more tougher competition than NLA and most of games and points is much tougher competition than FEL regular season. If we put WJC there too, it's 48 games and 33+24=57. So there you have, it's not anymore just little sample, but almost same amount of games what AM play whole season (AM have 10 games more). With medals, honors, records and awards that no one just not a single player in Europe have had in 17-18 years old.

So, bad autumn like i said, but WJC and after that was just sex.

Look other young players (U24) who are now NHL stars or close and play in Europe before draft:

Yevgeni Kuznetsov WJC 6 2+0=2, KHL 35 2+6=8, MHL 9 4+12=16, not many playoffs game.
Filip Forsberg WJC 6 0+1=1, Allsvenskan 43 8+9=17, playoffs 10 2+1=3.
Nikita Kucherov didn't play WJC, KHL 9 0+2=2, MHL 23 24+19=43, MHL playoffs 10 5+8=13.
Alexander Barkov WJC 6 3+4=7, FEL 51 21+27=48, FEL playoffs 5 0+5=5.
Mika Zibanejad didn't play WJC, SHL 26 5+4=9, not many playoffs game.
Victor Rask didn't play WJC, Allsvenskan 37 5+6=11, no playoffs games.

NLA is closer to Allsvenskan or MHL than FEL or SHL. FEL and SEL is closer to KHL. All of them was 17 years old and turn draft year 18, not like AM who was 18 years old whole season.

 

[ijuka]

Anyways, NHL.com polled 13 NHL scouts asking who'd they pick between Auston and Laine; 11 voted for AM, 2 for Laine. Interesting tidbit from one of the scouts who voted for Laine was his concern regarding Patrik's injury history. Didn't know that was something to be concerned about, maybe a Finnish fan can point out otherwise here.

He had major knee surgery on his left knee. Took the summer to recover. He also was out for a week this season due to a shoulder injury but I don't really know. Is getting cheap shot by Perry being injury prone?

 

[FinPanda]

Most of the posts here are Matthews vs Laine things. Also a lot of hyping/overhyping and bashing.

 

[93LEAFS]

Some of us aren't considering Laine's regular season scoring some amazing achievement but at least it was against men.

Yeah, but what McDavid or Lemieux did was against kids also. Its relative to who has been in that league at the same time or in a relatively close time frame or does that fact escape you? USNDP has a much better history of producing top line forwards (Kessel, Kane, Parise, Eichel vs Barkov, M. Koivu, J. Jokinen) over the last 15 years than Finland, and Matthews set the record for that. The SM-Liiga record is held by Barkov in that same time frame and age group.

And here is the actual record book, elite doesn't properly track it for previous years

http://www.usahockeyntdp.com/record-book

 

[93LEAFS]

Yes, Keller finished high in the USDP scoring compared to AM, and Laine didn't beat Granlund's high point total. Neither guys are special offensively

Anyways, NHL.com polled 13 NHL scouts asking who'd they pick between Auston and Laine; 11 voted for AM, 2 for Laine. Interesting tidbit from one of the scouts who voted for Laine was his concern regarding Patrik's injury history. Didn't know that was something to be concerned about, maybe a Finnish fan can point out otherwise here.

Link?

 

[Flair Hay]

Speaking of Pronman, do you happen to remember who he considers the second-best prospect of the past 5 years behind Connor McDavid?


I looked some years back and we have Hall vs Seguin(late birthday is worse), Nugent-Hopkins vs Landeskog(Late birthday is worse), Reinhart vs Ekblad(late birthday is worse) so that certainly was one interesting study. Obviously, occasionally the late birthday has to be the better player as well, that's just how it works.

First question is a fair question to ask considering they are from the same source.

Leafs get their building block, Jets get that final young piece they needed so badly. Life is good.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Yeah, but that is not what were discussing. You know who atleast 80% of sources consider the best prospect in the draft? He also considers Puljujarvi, Drouin, Mackinnon and Grigorenko better than Barkov. And in his original list, actually had Nicushkin ahead of him, he likes dem big wingers.

I have no idea what your point is with all this? I tried following your line of thinking. What are you saying today is nonsensical. You mentioned 7 months difference in a prospect is meaningless? If so, when did you adopt this new found philosophy? And now a list of players that have nothing to do with Laine in a Laine thread. No idea where this is going...

 

[Halberdier]

And the 7 months thing is actually shown not to matter at the top of the draft. Even Pronman admitted this when he did the study. Yet people consistently ignore that and apply it like we are talking about people about to be drafted in the late 1st or the 5th round, where the divide is shown to actually exist. But as said, I'll leave this thread if you want, just stop responding. NHLe is just as valid as the analytical study you are trying to use to prove the age advantage matters, which is repeatedly being incorrectly applied. Here is actually what Pronman said about the issue

Okay, fine. Seven months doesn't matter. Then five months doesn't matter, right?

Then we can get meaningful comparable tournaments as underaged for AM and Laine:

Auston Matthews, USA
U17@U16 0. 0+0=0 +0 (dnq)
U18@U17 7. 5+2=7 +7
U20@U18 5. 1+2=3 +0
WHC@U18 0. 0+0=0 +0 (dnq)
-----------------------------
Total: 12. 6+4=10 +7

Patrik Laine, Finland
U17@U16 7. 12 +5=17 +1
U18@U17 7. 8 +3=11 +6
U20@U18 7. 7 +6=13 +8
WHC@U18 10. 7 +5=12 +4
--------------------------------
Total: 31. 34+19=53 +19

Yeah. 34 is a little bit more than 6, and 53 is just a tad more than 10, methinks.

Point averages:

. . . . . . . . PGP GPG APG
Laine . . . 1.71 1.10 0.61
Matthews 0.83 0.50 0.33
PL vs AM +106% +120% +85%


Btw, that "IIHF date" by yours is also called "year" or "calendar year" in the real world. Like it's 2016 now. And Laine is born in 1998, AM in 1997.


To get a completely fair comparison, you should measure PL's tournaments to both "draft year" and "IIHF date" AM's ones, weighting 7/12 the above when he was 5 months younger than Laine, and 5/12 those when he was 7 months older than Laine.

Averaged, weighted stats for AM (rounded to nearest, that's why 2+2=3 and 4+3=6 and ultimately 15+10=23. 23 points is closer to reality than 15 goals):

Auston Matthews, USA
U17@U16&U17 3. 2+2=3 --
U18@U17&U18 7. 6+4=10 +7
U20@U18&U19 6. 4+3=6 +3
WHC@U18&U19 4. 3+1=4 +0
---------------------------------
Total: 20. 15+10=23 +10

Now, I don't think you can get any stats that would be more comparable to these above between Laine and Matthews. I think that's as fair comparison as you can possibly have. Now, let's see the point averages:

. . . . . . .. PGP GPG APG
Laine . . . 1.71 1.10 0.61
Matthews 1.15 0.75 0.5
PL vs AM +49% +47% +22%

Matthews does really great here, but Laine is still almost 50% more productive. Sample size is also around 30 games for both, so quite significant, and anyway the only sample that's comparable between these two, NLA vs. FEL + FEL PO being not comparable.

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

Link?

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-auston-matthews-vs-patrik-laine/c-280970416?tid=277764372

First question is a fair question to ask considering they are from the same source.

Leafs get their building block, Jets get that final young piece they needed so badly. Life is good.

Agreed. Not sure why there's such a need for fruitless arguments between two 18 year olds. Both are going to be tremendous players.

 

[Ippenator]

Most of the posts here are Matthews vs Laine things. Also a lot of hyping/overhyping and bashing.

Or all knowing bystanders throwing belittleing comments and contributing to the discussions with absolutely nothing meaningful.

 

[93LEAFS]

I have no idea what your point is with all this? I tried following your line of thinking. What are you saying today. You mentioned 7 months difference in a prospect is meaningless? If so, when did you adopt this new found philosophy? And now a list of players that have nothing to do with Laine in a Laine thread. No idea where this is going...

Read Pronman's piece on it, its shown it doesn't matter at the top of the draft in expected return, scouts properly assess talent at that rank, the divide between late and early birthday's expands the later someone is picked, with the real divide starting between 5-15. With top prospects scouts rarely get it wrong, but they overvalue late-birthdays the deeper you get into a draft. Pay for espn insider and read the full article if you don't understand it. I've posted the quote multiple times. And since you now like Pronman, maybe you should support him.

 

[93LEAFS]

Speaking of Pronman, do you happen to remember who he considers the second-best prospect of the past 5 years behind Connor McDavid?


I looked some years back and we have Hall vs Seguin(late birthday is worse), Nugent-Hopkins vs Landeskog(Late birthday is worse), Reinhart vs Ekblad(late birthday is worse) so that certainly was one interesting study. Obviously, occasionally the late birthday has to be the better player as well, that's just how it works.

Landeskog and RNH is a wash at this point, and its measuring compared to draft position. How about this Doughty vs Bogosian, Tavares vs Duchene, Kane vs JVR, etc. And considering this study focused on 1990 to 2010 becuase most of those classes are in development, great logic. Maybe pay to read the one guy championing the cause of Laine in the mainstream sports media.

 

[psycho_dad*]

You know who atleast 80% of sources consider the best prospect in the draft?

Who? Where does that number come from? What sources?

 

[Halberdier]

Second-Highest Point Total by a U-19 Player at a World Championship Tournament (behind only Sidney Crosby, 2006).

...and again Highest Point Total by a U-18 Player at a World Championship Tournament (behind no one).

And of course:
Most Goals by a U-18 Player at a World Championship Tournament (behind no one)
Most Assists by a U-18 Player at a World Championship Tournament (behind no one)

Fabulous OP's by JetsAlternate. I'm just nitpicking the only thing that's always missing from these.

 

[IFK]

Yes, Keller finished high in the USDP scoring compared to AM, and Laine didn't beat Granlund's high point total. Neither guys are special offensively

Anyways, NHL.com polled 13 NHL scouts asking who'd they pick between Auston and Laine; 11 voted for AM, 2 for Laine. Interesting tidbit from one of the scouts who voted for Laine was his concern regarding Patrik's injury history. Didn't know that was something to be concerned about, maybe a Finnish fan can point out otherwise here.

And i think those 2 was Euro scouts who you should ask? Not NA scouts cause best 3 play in Europe. Just like McKenzie, i believe he have those 10 NA scouts, cause most of prospects come to NA.

 

[Kadri43*]

I want to post this here, so there is some context. Laine played before WJC about 50 games. WJC and after that he really start to produce. Laine in autumn was good but don't produce as much later and games which matter most, still he have good points 17 years old first year FEL, Finnish junior national teams and other games.

Laine was better and better when it comes to this year (he start to get more ice time and PP time in first PP) and games where it matter a most and he shows to be a clutch player, Auston didn't show anything. Autumn was good for Laine, but he didn't produce that much only WJC and after that.

WJC which is tougher competition at least 17 years old playing with other 17 years old and 18 years 2nd rounder (no one could see what they can do and what they did in WJC against players who should be better than them). 7 game 7+6=13 (AM have same age 3 points). This year Laine has FEL regular season 13 games 9+8=17. FEL playoffs 18 games 10+5=15 and then WHC 10 games 7+5=12. No it's not sample size opinion. If we don't look WJC, Laine have this year 41 games and 26+18=44 points so much more tougher competition than NLA and most of games and points is much tougher competition than FEL regular season. If we put WJC there too, it's 48 games and 33+24=57. So there you have, it's not anymore just little sample, but almost same amount of games what AM play whole season (AM have 10 games more). With medals, honors, records and awards that no one just not a single player in Europe have had in 17-18 years old.

So, bad autumn like i said, but WJC and after that was just sex.

Look other young players (U24) who are now NHL stars or close and play in Europe before draft:

Yevgeni Kuznetsov WJC 6 2+0=2, KHL 35 2+6=8, MHL 9 4+12=16, not many playoffs game.
Filip Forsberg WJC 6 0+1=1, Allsvenskan 43 8+9=17, playoffs 10 2+1=3.
Nikita Kucherov didn't play WJC, KHL 9 0+2=2, MHL 23 24+19=43, MHL playoffs 10 5+8=13.
Alexander Barkov WJC 6 3+4=7, FEL 51 21+27=48, FEL playoffs 5 0+5=5.
Mika Zibanejad didn't play WJC, SHL 26 5+4=9, not many playoffs game.
Victor Rask didn't play WJC, Allsvenskan 37 5+6=11, no playoffs games.

NLA is closer to Allsvenskan or MHL than FEL or SHL. FEL and SEL is closer to KHL. All of them was 17 years old and turn draft year 18, not like AM who was 18 years old whole season.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-a...?tid=277764372

11 scouts for Matthews and 2 for Laine. Matthews is the more desirable prospect. End of story.