- Jun 10, 2014
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If public rankings have a player outside of the top 200 then how many GMs are going to reach and take them 6 rounds early? That is (potentially) risking your job on one player. Of course you might take them earlier than the 7th round.
I'm not sure how much attention they pay to the public rankings. But I don't think you would be likely to have a situation where a team's own list and the public lists disagree to that extent. Certainly not among the top 30 or so prospects. The gap might get wider in the later rounds. So team A takes a player in the 5th rd that team B would have taken in the 7th rd. If that player exceeds the performance of the avg. 2nd rounder, I think it is safe to say that team A is pleasantly surprised. Had they expected such performance, they would have taken the player earlier in the expectation that other teams also knew how good he would be. The same goes for the public lists. If they had known, they would have listed him higher.
The thing is that by the 5th rd they are pretty much just throwing darts. The hits are more luck than anything else.