OT: LOCAL COVID19 - PART I... Seriously, local only

[Sensmileletsgo]

That link doesn't work for me. Think you might have lopped off the final few characters or something.

WRT the bolded ... I have seen studies that conclude that vaccinated people spread the virus at a much lower rate than unvaccinated. I'll see if I can dig them up.

Strange, the link works for me. Ya I’ve read that as well, tough to keep up with the data, it keeps changing. Sadly, I think their is still some risk for seniors and immunocompromised that are double vaccinated.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Strange, the link works for me. Ya I’ve read that as well, tough to keep up with the data, it keeps changing. Sadly, I think their is still some risk for seniors and immunocompromised that are double vaccinated.

Okay, it did just work for me. The key thing about this study is that it relates to people living in the same household.... all the studies I've seen relate to simply passing the virus on within the community.

I'd say the relevant piece of info is this one:

"The team add that the peak level of virus in infected individuals was the same regardless of whether they were jabbed or not, although these levels dropped off more quickly in the vaccinated people, suggesting they cleared the infection sooner."

If you're in the same household as someone with Covid, then seeing them day after day you're likely to pick it up shortly after they get it; so if the peak level is the same whether the person is vaxxed or unvaxxed then there you're chances are not changed.

But if you're NOT in the same household, eg just sharing a dressing room with the guy once a week, then the fact that the "levels dropped off more quickly in the vaccinated people" becomes relevant. It will just depend on the timing of when you see them.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Quick fact: 40 people between the age of 1 and 59 have died from covid in Ottawa. Underlying health conditions undetermined.

View attachment 475129

Daily COVID-19 Dashboard

As difficult as it's been, I have to agree with you that the Ottawa public health officials have really done an excellent job of getting us through this.

 

[Dan Patrick]

I don’t think that makes a difference. Sounds like vaccinated can spread the virus just as easily as unvaccinated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...ely-unjabbed-infect-cohabiters-study-suggests

That's not really what the article you posted is saying and there are some things worth pointing out. Primarily, that this is a UK based study so the prodomenant vaccine in households is going to be Astra Zeneca which has shown a lower efficacy rate in preventing infection than the MRNA vaccines primarily used in Canada. Furthermore, the study only follows 138 infected households so you probably want to have a bigger data set before drawing concrete conclusions (not trying to dismiss the findings but it bears further study and one where type of vaccine is accounted for). Finally, it's worth mentioning that vaccinated still were about 13% less likely to become infected so although not a massive difference it is still less likely vaccinated people become infected.

To summarize I hope no one has to have the kind of constant close contact with a covid infection that arrises from a member of your household becoming infected but it looks like if you are all vaccinated with a less effective vaccine than the majority of Canadians you have about a 25% chance of becoming infected versus the unvaccinated's 38% chance.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

That's not really what the article you posted is saying and there are some things worth pointing out. Primarily, that this is a UK based study so the prodomenant vaccine in households is going to be Astra Zeneca which has shown a lower efficacy rate in preventing infection than the MRNA vaccines primarily used in Canada. Furthermore, the study only follows 138 infected households so you probably want to have a bigger data set before drawing concrete conclusions (not trying to dismiss the findings but it bears further study and one where type of vaccine is accounted for). Finally, it's worth mentioning that vaccinated still were about 13% less likely to become infected so although not a massive difference it is still less likely vaccinated people become infected.

To summarize I hope no one has to have the kind of constant close contact with a covid infection that arrises from a member of your household becoming infected but it looks like if you are all vaccinated with a less effective vaccine than the majority of Canadians you have about a 25% chance of becoming infected versus the unvaccinated's 38% chance.

Ya, well explained.

I think the point I was trying to get across was that there’s still risk in a room even with fully vaccinated people. Someone mentioned earlier in the thread that maybe there were unvaccinated kids in the locker room beforehand. I’m not sure that is more likely to be the reason for the infection then a vaccinated adult with a breakthrough case. I have no idea. I just know there’s still risk out there and people need to make their own choices based on their own health and what they feel comfortable doing.

 

[Benttheknee]

Not sure if other people feel this, but I fully expect to get Covid at some time, which means I expect everybody will get it. You can't avoid it, so prepare yourself as best you can.

 

[Micklebot]

I don’t think that makes a difference. Sounds like vaccinated can spread the virus just as easily as unvaccinated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...ely-unjabbed-infect-cohabiters-study-suggests

I don't think the article you linked to supports what you're saying here.

For one, the article said vacination reduces the likelihood of transmission from 38% to 25%, which given that we're talking about a scenario with prolonged close contact, seems like a significant impact.

Second, the scenario of unvaccinated kids being in the dressing room prior, is not one of prolonged close contact, and probably wouldn't even result in any close contact. While the article does suggest a vaccinated infected person has the same peak viral load and potential to pass it on as an infected unvaccinated person, the viral load goes down quicker for vaccinated, so they may be infectious for a shorter period, and are less likely to catch it in the first place.

I'd also be curious to see which vaccines were used, the two mRNA ones appear to have held up better against delta than the single dose J&J vaccine. I'm sure they considered that in the study, I just glossed over the article though.

Edit: just saw your reply to someone else, agree that there's still risk for vaccinated, and I'm not sure how much more risk is introduced if any by unvaccinated kids using the same room prior, so those are both valid points to consider if that's all you were hitting at.

 

[Stylizer1]

That link doesn't work for me. Think you might have lopped off the final few characters or something.

WRT the bolded ... I have seen studies that conclude that vaccinated people spread the virus at a much lower rate than unvaccinated. I'll see if I can dig them up.

I think it's important to clarify this. Infected people spread the virus. Vaccinated or unvaccinated are not the issue. Everyone is a potential spreader.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

I don’t think that makes a difference. Sounds like vaccinated can spread the virus just as easily as unvaccinated.

Jabs do not reduce risk of passing Covid within household, study suggests

At peak viral load, yes. However the time period when vaccinated people are contagious is not as long as the time period when unvaccinated people are contagious. This makes a big difference.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

I think it's important to clarify this. Infected people spread the virus. Vaccinated or unvaccinated are not the issue. Everyone is a potential spreader.

Your statement actually isn't clarifying, as it's implying the risk of spread is equal. Which isn't supported by any data that I've seen.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

That's not really what the article you posted is saying and there are some things worth pointing out. Primarily, that this is a UK based study so the prodomenant vaccine in households is going to be Astra Zeneca which has shown a lower efficacy rate in preventing infection than the MRNA vaccines primarily used in Canada. Furthermore, the study only follows 138 infected households so you probably want to have a bigger data set before drawing concrete conclusions (not trying to dismiss the findings but it bears further study and one where type of vaccine is accounted for). Finally, it's worth mentioning that vaccinated still were about 13% less likely to become infected so although not a massive difference it is still less likely vaccinated people become infected.

To summarize I hope no one has to have the kind of constant close contact with a covid infection that arrises from a member of your household becoming infected but it looks like if you are all vaccinated with a less effective vaccine than the majority of Canadians you have about a 25% chance of becoming infected versus the unvaccinated's 38% chance.

WRT the bolded -- I was quite surprised to see that number when I popped open the article.

I'm tot willing to dig down further into the study or who conducted it, so it's hard to pass judgment.... but I'm perplexed at how a study could/would be published with such a small sample size.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Quick fact: 40 people between the age of 1 and 59 have died from covid in Ottawa. Underlying health conditions undetermined.

View attachment 475129

Daily COVID-19 Dashboard

Still 1 death every 655 infections for those under 60 (taken from COVID dashboard). Which isn't crazy or anything but you have people losing it over myocarditis and blood clots for vaccines which are about 1/50,000 vaccines.

3 deaths out of every 100 infections from 60-69.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Total deaths in Canada to Oct 1/21 of people 50 and under? 653 out of many millions, including those before a vaccine was available, treatments were improved, and also those with other conditions that made them medically vulnerable.

• Number of COVID-19 deaths by age Canada 2021 | Statista

Israeli study shows those previously infected have 27x the immunities of those vaccinated.

Also, new studies should the transmissable load of covid is the same level for vaccinated and unvaccinated.

No Significant Difference in Viral Load Between Vaccinated and Unvaccinated, Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Groups Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant (clinicalnews.org)

So who should be vaccinated: those over 50/60, those with other health issues. And the overweight/obese, who are more vulnerable and cost billions in extra healthcare costs. And those who want it.

Kids and those who already had covid really do not need it. Healthy middle agers too. Vaccine side effects are probably worse than bad outcomes for these groups.

If you are vaccinated, congrats you are less likely to get covid and suffer bad consequences, but an equal transmission risk, and with waning benefit from your vacc over time. But just as likely to transmit, mostly to the unvaccinated who, if in low risk groups, almost certainly won't suffer greatly anyways.

Worried about expenses to the medical system, well the big savings are in getting fatties into the gym and eating healthy, by far. Especially in low infection level Ottawa.

The actual number of deaths under 50 in Canada is 1868. There have been 1,400,000 COVID cases. So that's about 1 death every 1000 infections.

 

[Stylizer1]

Your statement actually isn't clarifying, as it's implying the risk of spread is equal. Which isn't supported by any data that I've seen.

What I am implying is that only infected people cause the spread whether vaccinated or unvaccinated. I would rather walk into a room with someone hacking lungs out than to be next to someone with no symptoms but who is infected. At least then I can choose to leave because someone is clearly sick.

 

[Ice-Tray]

What I am implying is that only infected people cause the spread whether vaccinated or unvaccinated. I would rather walk into a room with someone hacking lungs out than to be next to someone with no symptoms but who is infected. At least then I can choose to leave because someone is clearly sick.

I very much doubt that. Walking into the room with someone hacking out COVID is too late for you. The person with zero symptoms is likely going to be spreading less virus than the guy who has just filled the room with it.

The bigger issue is that the unvaccinated were filling up the hospitals, especially in the prairies were vaccinations levels were lower.

Aside from all of the obvious issues there, they also created an environment where thousands of other people couldn’t get the surgeries and care that they needed. Think of all of those people who couldn’t get treated because buddy refused to get vaccinated and now is dying of their own accord. It’s a shame, and we’ll save that person because that’s who we are, but it’s a very very selfish line of behaviour.

Who spreads more is more, and by how much more, seems like window dressing compared to the core problems being caused by the minority that opt to not get vaccinated. Yeah but even doubled backed people are in ICU, sure there are, but 90% of those folks are unvaxxed, and those that are doubled vaxxed almost always have underlying conditions.

Humans are gonna human, there is just no reaching some folk.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

What I am implying is that only infected people cause the spread whether vaccinated or unvaccinated.

This is clearly true.

I would rather walk into a room with someone hacking lungs out than to be next to someone with no symptoms but who is infected. At least then I can choose to leave because someone is clearly sick.

This also seems obviously true, and I think it's (obviously) important that you have the right to choose.

But imagine the decision you have to make is slightly different. The thing that started this discussion was an outbreak of Covid in a men's pickup hockey league where all the players had proven they were vaccinated. So, say on a Saturday night that you are asked to sub in to two different rec leagues, but you can only do one. If one of the leagues has 100% of it's players vaccinated, and the other league has 10% of its players vaccinated, which would you choose?

 

[IlTerrifico]

The actual number of deaths under 50 in Canada is 1868. There have been 1,400,000 COVID cases. So that's about 1 death every 1000 infections.

Incorrect. You added in the 50-59 category figures. But hey, that makes it even sadder to think that the population under 60 has seen so many more deaths from fentanyl, accidents, and obesity, a major factor in covid deaths also is the cause of an estimated 10% of deaths in the 20-64 age range, yet people freak out daily over a factor that has killed maybe 0.007% in that age group and want to persecute Joe Rogen.

But hey, the fear may be justified if you are tubby and suffer from several other poor health factors. I'll just leave this here...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Incorrect. You added in the 50-59 category figures. But hey, that makes it even sadder to think that the population under 60 has seen so many more deaths from fentanyl, accidents, and obesity, a major factor in covid deaths also is the cause of an estimated 10% of deaths in the 20-64 age range, yet people freak out daily over a factor that has killed maybe 0.007% in that age group and want to persecute Joe Rogen.

But hey, the fear may be justified if you are tubby and suffer from several other poor health factors. I'll just leave this here...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Sorry you are right. The rate of death below 50 is 1/2000 infections.

I am vaccinated, so I don't really fear the virus (I'd rather not get it because of protocol is a pain in the butt). I do fear what happened in Alberta (and what I experienced in April in Ontario) so I want as many ppl vaccinated as possible so we can move on from all of this.

I want a normal life again, and I am starting to get back to that. But I've been cautious because I've got an immunocompromised husband and two small children.

But I don't think I'm being fearful personally by simply presenting the risk of death from COVID vs risk from vaccination and the effect that COVID has had on our health care system. And I agree, mental health has been greatly affected during the pandemic. All the more reason to get vaccinated and move on from all of this.

 

[Stylizer1]

This is clearly true.



This also seems obviously true, and I think it's (obviously) important that you have the right to choose.

But imagine the decision you have to make is slightly different. The thing that started this discussion was an outbreak of Covid in a men's pickup hockey league where all the players had proven they were vaccinated. So, say on a Saturday night that you are asked to sub in to two different rec leagues, but you can only do one. If one of the leagues has 100% of it's players vaccinated, and the other league has 10% of its players vaccinated, which would you choose?

I'm really not concerned with getting covid-19 though. It doesn't make any difference to me. That is my truth.

 

[Stylizer1]

Sorry you are right. The rate of death below 50 is 1/2000 infections.

I am vaccinated, so I don't really fear the virus (I'd rather not get it because of protocol is a pain in the butt). I do fear what happened in Alberta (and what I experienced in April in Ontario) so I want as many ppl vaccinated as possible so we can move on from all of this.

I want a normal life again, and I am starting to get back to that. But I've been cautious because I've got an immunocompromised husband and two small children.

But I don't think I'm being fearful personally by simply presenting the risk of death from COVID vs risk from vaccination and the effect that COVID has had on our health care system. And I agree, mental health has been greatly affected during the pandemic. All the more reason to get vaccinated and move on from all of this.

Speaking truthfully, my wife's uncle died of a heart attack 2 days after receiving his first shot. Walked a few km's a day and was in his early 70's. No heart problems whats so ever. I work around many people who got covid and a handful died but not everyone got sick. The one common factor was that they all were over the age of 63 and had comorbidities. 1 person in a household can get it yet it doesn't affect anyone else? What's the reasoning for that? I think some people are just more susceptible to getting it and a smaller number are prone to dying from it. As the data shows you should get a vaccine if you are over a certain age, that being 70. There are still many people in that age range who get it and get over it. Those with comorbidities and are over the age of 60 should get it. I think it is insane that any parent would subject their kid to the fears associated with this virus. If we are going by only the numbers no child should be given the shot. People are on the brink of being fired from their careers even though the numbers of deaths have been deceasing since the first wave. I have no faith in the government nor the media to tell me the truth so I can make
an informed decision.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Speaking truthfully, my wife's uncle died of a heart attack 2 days after receiving his first shot. Walked a few km's a day and was in his early 70's. No heart problems whats so ever. I work around many people who got covid and a handful died but not everyone got sick. The one common factor was that they all were over the age of 63 and had comorbidities. 1 person in a household can get it yet it doesn't affect anyone else? What's the reasoning for that? I think some people are just more susceptible to getting it and a smaller number are prone to dying from it. As the data shows you should get a vaccine if you are over a certain age, that being 70. There are still many people in that age range who get it and get over it. Those with comorbidities and are over the age of 60 should get it. I think it is insane that any parent would subject their kid to the fears associated with this virus. If we are going by only the numbers no child should be given the shot. People are on the brink of being fired from their careers even though the numbers of deaths have been deceasing since the first wave. I have no faith in the government nor the media to tell me the truth so I can make
an informed decision.

I always try to stay away from only looking at what's happened to people I know (or even what I've seen at work) and actually look at the numbers. I personally don't know a single person who's had anything more than fever/chills post vaccination. And I know hundreds of people who've been vaccinated.

On the flip side, I've seen two children get heart transplants due to myocarditis from COVID infection (this will literally half their life expectancy). We have about 1-2 ICU COVID infection admissions a week. These often aren't reflected in numbers though because they are currently not active infections. In kids, COVID infection often produces a large inflammatory response that occurs 4-8 weeks after infection -- and since they don't test positive, it's not inputted as a COVID admission. And when our unit opened an adult ICU it was only under 40 with no comorbidities. So I've literally watched people die who are my age.

***I'm well aware that me or most of my family is unlikely to even get very ill from COVID statistically, but I'll happily take the extra protection a vaccine gives

So when my daughter is eligible, I'll be getting her vaccinated. She doesn't fear the virus, but I also know that even in kids, your more likely to get sick from COVID than from the vaccine. And I know I have a bit of a skewed outlook because I've seen how sick some kids have gotten. If I can protect my daughter from that, I'll be doing that (and I acknowledge the myocarditis post vaccination is a risk). At the end of the day, I'll look at risk of a COVID infection in a child vs risk of a vaccine injury. It's unlikely I'll prevent my child from getting COVID forever and so I'll weigh the risk of both.

Now I'm personally in favor of a vaccine mandate, at least initially, because when we look at the provinces that opened up without anything VS the ones that opened with caution, there was a significant difference in the impact on healthcare. And I don't see the issue in certain people requiring a vaccine to work. I have to have every other vaccine up to date and have all my boosters every ten years or I go on unpaid leave, so adding COVID to that isn't a big deal to me.

I'm also all for opening up completely when the vaccine is available to all and only reimplement restrictions if hospital capacity is compromised (we should not be cancelling surgeries or tests because our beds are being filled with Covid patients).

But I do agree that information given by media swings to one extreme or another. Which is why I actually look at the data, look at studies done and I do get a lot of info from work.

 

[dumbdick]

Speaking truthfully, my wife's uncle died of a heart attack 2 days after receiving his first shot. Walked a few km's a day and was in his early 70's. No heart problems whats so ever. I work around many people who got covid and a handful died but not everyone got sick. The one common factor was that they all were over the age of 63 and had comorbidities. 1 person in a household can get it yet it doesn't affect anyone else? What's the reasoning for that? I think some people are just more susceptible to getting it and a smaller number are prone to dying from it. As the data shows you should get a vaccine if you are over a certain age, that being 70. There are still many people in that age range who get it and get over it. Those with comorbidities and are over the age of 60 should get it. I think it is insane that any parent would subject their kid to the fears associated with this virus. If we are going by only the numbers no child should be given the shot. People are on the brink of being fired from their careers even though the numbers of deaths have been deceasing since the first wave. I have no faith in the government nor the media to tell me the truth so I can make
an informed decision.

Locally speaking, I disagree with this. But I understand the position.

To me you've got to look at this as doing something for the good of society. My fear is the possibility of further variants arising that are more deadly than the current forms. Humanity got lucky with COVID-19 being as mild as it is. And even then it killed millions. MERS has an insanely high fatality rate and if it had spread like COVID did we wouldn't be having this conversation because a lot of us would be dead right now.

I suspect that the odds of a coronavirus variant emerging that can absolutely decimate our species are quite high right now (in a relative sense). Every time this thing transfers from one person to another, or to another species and back, the odds of that bleak future coming to pass creeps up a tiny bit.

I don't want to f*** around with that. So I wear my mask, keep my distance, get my shots and do most of the little things that I can. Shit I willingly take on more personal inconvenience to recycle, and that's just to keep landfill sizes in check.

 

[Stylizer1]

Locally speaking, I disagree with this. But I understand the position.

To me you've got to look at this as doing something for the good of society. My fear is the possibility of further variants arising that are more deadly than the current forms. Humanity got lucky with COVID-19 being as mild as it is. And even then it killed millions. MERS has an insanely high fatality rate and if it had spread like COVID did we wouldn't be having this conversation because a lot of us would be dead right now.

I suspect that the odds of a coronavirus variant emerging that can absolutely decimate our species are quite high right now (in a relative sense). Every time this thing transfers from one person to another, or to another species and back, the odds of that bleak future coming to pass creeps up a tiny bit.

I don't want to f*** around with that. So I wear my mask, keep my distance, get my shots and do most of the little things that I can.

You can't worry about what ifs. I was probably the lone person at the start who suggested that this virus was not natural and came from a lab. At present the leading theory is just that. You have governments and corporations coming up with this virus, governments locking down the world that only benefits these corporations, and now you have governments and corporations coming up with the solutions to it. I am 100% confident that the precautions I have taken during the last 2 years are sufficient enough to protect me and my family. I take great care in looking at as much information that I can to form my opinion and don't try to preach to anyone what they should do. I am not on any social media and never have been except for HFB and I'm not sure that even qualifies.

Whats good for society are individuals understanding what is truth, what are lies, what is coercion, and what is propaganda. It's everyone's job to do this for themselves because no one is paid to do it for you.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Not sure if other people feel this, but I fully expect to get Covid at some time, which means I expect everybody will get it. You can't avoid it, so prepare yourself as best you can.

Good odds that you've already had it.

It swept through our warehouse a year ago. Half the crew had no symptoms, some (like myself) felt incredibly weak and lethargic for 2-3 days and it disappeared, and one person was off work sick for two weeks. I'll also note that I am middle aged and have a few health issues (deformed lungs that are extremely susceptible to viruses).

 

[dumbdick]

You can't worry about what ifs. I was probably the lone person at the start who suggested that this virus was not natural and came from a lab. At present the leading theory is just that. You have governments and corporations coming up with his virus, governments locking down the world that only benefits these corporations, and now you have governments and corporations coming up with the solutions to it. I am 100% confident that the precautions I have taken during the last 2 years are sufficient enough to protect me and my family. I take great care in looking at as much information that I can to form my opinion and don't try to preach to anyone what they should do. I am not on any social media and never have been except for HFB and I'm not sure that even qualifies.

Whats good for society are individuals understanding what is truth, what are lies, what is coercion, and what is propaganda. It's everyone's job to do this for themselves because no one is paid to do it for you.

I'd really like to understand this point of view, but it just looks like a bunch of incoherent angst. "You can't worry about what ifs" sounds like a slogan that a goth kid tattoos on their upper back.

I know making fun of you won't shake you from your opinions. So if there's part of what I said that you disagree with, engage me with logical discourse. I'm willing to try to understand your view point.