LHD Ron Hainsey; Biography and Statistical Breakdown

[truck]

I was saying Hainsey gets the hate because he was overpaid, soft, and a PA whiner.

Stuart hits, fights, gets paid in line with his role and looks like he cares out there every night...on a team that needs more of that than whatever Hainsey's bringing to the table. 9/10 fans are going to say Stuart > Hainsey.

Hainsey also gets paid in line with his role this year.

...on a team that needs more of that than whatever Hainsey's bringing to the table.

This argument is beyond silly.

A defender's job is goal prevention. Hainsey is better at preventing goals.

I don't care who hits of fights more. Goal prevention is the name of the game.

Buff was -11 with Stu and +2 with Hainsey.
Bogo was -4 with Stu and +5 with Hainsey.

Ron did a better job of curbing shots and goals.

Stu is better at fighting, Ron is better at hockey. It isn't even close.

 

[truck]

But this is all lost on 99% of fans - they see Stuart throw a couple of hits, get in a fight...woooo! Hockey! They don't parse the fact that Bogosian was on the ice for 0.202 more GA /20 minutes with Stuart than he was with Hainsey.

So it appears to the average fan that Stuart > Hainsey, except Hainsey made $3.4 million more than Stuart. Plus Hainsey is the voice of the PA in a contentious labour negotiation and has a bit of a fan-unfriendly demeanour to begin with...it all adds up to hate.

It amazes me how many people (fans and media) think Stuart was the #4 D man last year.

Ron player 21:05 Minutes per game
Stu played 17.12 Minutes per game

Doesn't get much clearer than that.

 

[Gm0ney]

Hainsey also gets paid in line with his role this year.


This argument is beyond silly.

A defender's job is goal prevention. Hainsey is better at preventing goals.

I don't care who hits of fights more. Goal prevention is the name of the game.

Buff was -11 with Stu and +2 with Hainsey.
Bogo was -4 with Stu and +5 with Hainsey.

Ron did a better job of curbing shots and goals.

Stu is better at fighting, Ron is better at hockey. It isn't even close.

My original post in this thread was a response to the apparent incredulity that people could hate Ron Hainsey even though the stats prove that, hey, he's not as ****** as everyone thought. He was overpaid last year, didn't look to be making a difference on the ice to the layman, and made enemies with his comments during the lockout. That's it! Some people can watch the same game and say "that guy did nothing ergo he's an overpaid bum and we should buy him out I don't care that he's a UFA" and other people can say "well, Bogosian's on-ice Goals Against is much better when he's paired with Hainsey than Stuart or (OMG!) Oduya, so I'm willing to cut him some slack". That first guy probably wouldn't say "ergo" come to think of it...

And I don't know if it's "beyond" a silly argument to say the Jets needed Stuart's toughness and energy and effort more than another $5 million soft defenseman. But I'll grant you that since my "Corsi fairy story" comment seems to have activated some kind of stat guy defense mechanism here...JUST KIDDING! Please don't analyze all my previous posts to determine my tongue-to-cheek ratio!

 

[Gnova]

In the last couple minutes of a game with a one goal lead which Jet's D would you be most comfortable with on the ice.

My preference:
1 - Hainsey
2 - Enstrom (sans Buff)
3 - Bogo
4 - Stuart

To me that speaks to his value.

 

[truck]

My original post in this thread was a response to the apparent incredulity that people could hate Ron Hainsey even though the stats prove that, hey, he's not as ****** as everyone thought. He was overpaid last year, didn't look to be making a difference on the ice to the layman, and made enemies with his comments during the lockout. That's it! Some people can watch the same game and say "that guy did nothing ergo he's an overpaid bum and we should buy him out I don't care that he's a UFA" and other people can say "well, Bogosian's on-ice Goals Against is much better when he's paired with Hainsey than Stuart or (OMG!) Oduya, so I'm willing to cut him some slack". That first guy probably wouldn't say "ergo" come to think of it...

And I don't know if it's "beyond" a silly argument to say the Jets needed Stuart's toughness and energy and effort more than another $5 million soft defenseman. But I'll grant you that since my "Corsi fairy story" comment seems to have activated some kind of stat guy defense mechanism here...JUST KIDDING! Please don't analyze all my previous posts to determine my tongue-to-cheek ratio!

I got the toungue-to-cheek thing, just couldn't help but rant.

IMO a D man that you don't notice isn't a bad thing.

 

[garret9]

Well after some calculations the tounge to cheak ratio is 0.432% and for a positive playoff discussion we need a >0.550%...
Okay even I don't think of that as funny... But this molecular genetics class is boooooring

 

[garret9]

Outsider looking in:

So he faced the highest quality of competition on the Jets, with the fewest offensive zone starts, and still had the lowest GA/60 at even strength. The offense might not be there anymore, but it sure seems like he's still pretty capable in his own end. For 3M in actual salary, I think he's still got decent value.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

My opinion after watching him game in & game out is that Hainsey's more or less a bag of hammers. I don't think any of the stats here that argue that he's better than people seem to think tell the whole story. Not every bone-headed or stone-handed play leads to a goal against, for example.

Sure, it's safe to assume that the accuracy of something like plus/minus eventually comes out in the wash, but there were few players on this team that were more frustrating to watch last year. That evidence may not be emperical, but I've been around the game for a long time & I simply don't like this player's game.

 

[truck]

My opinion after watching him game in & game out is that Hainsey's more or less a bag of hammers. I don't think any of the stats here that argue that he's better than people seem to think tell the whole story. Not every bone-headed or stone-handed play leads to a goal against, for example.

Sure, it's safe to assume that the accuracy of something like plus/minus eventually comes out in the wash, but there were few players on this team that were more frustrating to watch last year. That evidence may not be emperical, but I've been around the game for a long time & I simply don't like this player's game.

I watched the same games. Hainsey didn`t do much that bugged me. I thought he went unnoticed most night which isn`t a bad thing for a defender. Stuart on the other hand stood out all the time. He stood out because he fought and to me he was often out of position.

Critiques like Ron is soft confuse me. Hainsey has been a solid shot blocker and I don`t care how big the hits are so long as you win the puck battle. I don`t care how you do it, just get the job done.

Stats are never the whole story, but the eye test is never the whole story either. Two people can watch and see completely different things, but the results don`t chance dependent on a perspective.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

I watched the same games. Hainsey didn`t do much that bugged me. I thought he went unnoticed most night which isn`t a bad thing for a defender. Stuart on the other hand stood out all the time. He stood out because he fought and to me he was often out of position.

Critiques like Ron is soft confuse me. Hainsey has been a solid shot blocker and I don`t care how big the hits are so long as you win the puck battle. I don`t care how you do it, just get the job done.

Stats are never the whole story, but the eye test is never the whole story either. Two people can watch and see completely different things, but the results don`t chance dependent on a perspective.

Bold is true. Such as your part about him not standing out to you. He stood out all the time for me.

Individual results are dependent on many things if not a perspective. Stats that suggest something like "Hainsey made Bogosian's plus/minus better" for instance, just don't hold water. Stats for "failing to keep the puck in" or "missed checks that led to a trouble shift in the d-zone" and the like aren't kept.

 

[Jet]

I watched the same games. Hainsey didn`t do much that bugged me. I thought he went unnoticed most night which isn`t a bad thing for a defender. Stuart on the other hand stood out all the time. He stood out because he fought and to me he was often out of position.

Critiques like Ron is soft confuse me. Hainsey has been a solid shot blocker and I don`t care how big the hits are so long as you win the puck battle. I don`t care how you do it, just get the job done.

Stats are never the whole story, but the eye test is never the whole story either. Two people can watch and see completely different things, but the results don`t chance dependent on a perspective.

I agree with all of this. I loathe to say anything about Stuart because he is the preeminent battler, a heart and soul guy, and I think the Jets would be much worse off without him. However, he needs to be sheltered, he is not a top 4 guy. He made lots of mistakes, usually when he was playing over his depth.

People rag on Hainsey all day, but he gets all of the tough assignments and had consistently made his partner better, no matter who they are -- that is the sign of a good defenseman, coming from myself, a defenseman who needs a partner like that

I am not a huge stats guy, but the one thing you can say about them is over a large sample size they usually tell a pretty accurate story. You can only hide from reality for so long. The stats are on Ron's side.

 

[Grind]

I agree with all of this. I loathe to say anything about Stuart because he is the preeminent battler, a heart and soul guy, and I think the Jets would be much worse off without him. However, he needs to be sheltered, he is not a top 4 guy. He made lots of mistakes, usually when he was playing over his depth.

People rag on Hainsey all day, but he gets all of the tough assignments and had consistently made his partner better, no matter who they are -- that is the sign of a good defense man, coming from myself, a defense man who needs a partner like that

I am not a huge stats guy, but the one thing you can say about them is over a large sample size they usually tell a pretty accurate story. You can only hide from reality for so long. The stats are on Ron's side.

this is fantastic to read from someone aside from truck and garret and sums up my feeling to a T.

some may say +/- doesn't hold (indeed i hate it), fine, but shot differential does (if you care to do the research on it) and i believe the same was true for his shot differential.

Stats don't tell the whole story and neither does the Eye Test. But when the two align, you end up with a pretty strong case. It's also interesting to compare your Eyes Test against stats and see how you may "see" things that are just strait up not true.

The only problem i have is when people eshew reality for their eye test (ie: i think player ex is the best goal scorer on the team, even though his goals per game are the third lowest)

anecdote: My girlfriend was taking an intro psych class and one of the lectures mentioned a study about our tendency to increase the importance of anything memorable. Essentially if we see a dman with a BIG turnover that leads to a goal/breakaway, we will always assume he has more turnovers then the dman who gave up 3 little turnovers that didn't lead to goals/breakaways. WHich, IMO, is the main cause for the hate buf and hainsey both recieve.

 

[truck]

this is fantastic to read from someone aside from truck and garret and sums up my feeling to a T.

some may say +/- doesn't hold (indeed i hate it), fine, but shot differential does (if you care to do the research on it) and i believe the same was true for his shot differential.

Stats don't tell the whole story and neither does the Eye Test. But when the two align, you end up with a pretty strong case. It's also interesting to compare your Eyes Test against stats and see how you may "see" things that are just strait up not true.

The only problem i have is when people eshew reality for their eye test (ie: i think player ex is the best goal scorer on the team, even though his goals per game are the third lowest)

anecdote: My girlfriend was taking an intro psych class and one of the lectures mentioned a study about our tendency to increase the importance of anything memorable. Essentially if we see a dman with a BIG turnover that leads to a goal/breakaway, we will always assume he has more turnovers then the dman who gave up 3 little turnovers that didn't lead to goals/breakaways. WHich, IMO, is the main cause for the hate buf and hainsey both recieve.

I think that is a big part of why people insist that the D was really really really bad.

There were some major errors, but they didn't happen every game and there were really only 15-20 of them on that season. The fact that Pav let in a goal on something 16-20 (made up number, but he wasn't good in those situations) breakaways makes it seem far worse than it really was.

Even the best defensive teams are probably going to allow 10+ really bad turnovers over the coarse of a game. For example, Kane took a puck from Chara and scored.

On that note, I remember seeing Chara (and other defenders) behind the Jets net many many times and nobody cared, but when Buff went back there he was criminal.

Once people get a hold of a story line they can easily fall into a pattern of confirmation bias. Things that agree with the storyline are added as evidence and things that disagree are written off or ignored.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

I didn't even know the bozo had fans. This thread is very enlightening. The most common phrase among the peeps I watched games with was "******* Hainsey!". I'll be sure to pay even closer attention this year & see which camp is out to lunch. Maybe there's something to be said for both sides' POV.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

On that note, I remember seeing Chara (and other defenders) behind the Jets net many many times and nobody cared, but when Buff went back there he was criminal.

I like that about Buff. Whenever an odd man rush against occured and people were up in arms about his pinching, I pointed to the forwards. They have to be aware of who they're on the ice with.

 

[HannuJ]

you guys know that some hockey experts had argued that Hainsey was probably the Jets' most valuable all-around D man last year.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

you guys know that some hockey experts had argued that Hainsey was probably the Jets' most valuable all-around D man last year.

Uh huh. The same experts were picking Canada to win gold at the juniors too, no doubt.

I still don't think he's worth a used puck bag, but I've been wrong before, so I'll keep an open mind this season.

 

[truck]

I like that about Buff. Whenever an odd man rush against occured and people were up in arms about his pinching, I pointed to the forwards. They have to be aware of who they're on the ice with.

I thought the forwards got better about it as the season went on.

 

[truck]

you guys know that some hockey experts had argued that Hainsey was probably the Jets' most valuable all-around D man last year.

I wouldn't go that far, but I'd say he was among the 4 most valuable without thinking.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

I thought the forwards got better about it as the season went on.

They did, and Buff was getting better in being selective. It's a weapon that not all teams have.

 

[garret9]

Yes stats won't point out to every single play that sucks but doesn't really end to anything...
But stats don't show every single little good thing too that didn't end up working out...
What stats are good for is determining the average result the player creates...
On average, Hainsey is our #4 and on average Hainsey is a lot stronger fit for Bogosian than Stuart.


@Jet:
I agree 100% about Stuart. I like him on the 3rd pairing in sheltered role.
Even most "stat" guys agree how there is value to "intagibles" and "heart and soul guys" and "truculence and grit" etc.
I read a really interesting writeup once discussing the effect of these guys. Basically it discussed how these guys positive team effects can outweigh their negative on ice effects when used in 3rd pairing or 4th line in minimal minutes sheltered roles.
Stuart I think is a solid #5 or #6 and to me that's not a bad thing at all.

 

[Becel]

Guys like Hainsey, Antropov and Buff have such a target on them with the majority of fans. They are waiting for a mistake. They watch Antropov waiting to point out that he isn't busting his ass, or point out every pinch Buff makes or every turnover by Hainsey. Darth Handsome is a prime example of this when he says he will be paying even closer attention to him this year (granted he does say looking for good or bad), but the majority have their mind made up and look for the mistake. Last year I had a guy sit behind me and commentate every bad move by Hainsey (good plays obviously ignored), it drove me nuts. These bullseyes on their back make it impossible for them. As someone said before Buff isn't the only one who pinches on the Jets - did anyone see any of Randy Jones's beauties last year? Antropov isn't the only guy who doesn't bust his ass all the time - not to mention his style and body type which I could go on and on about. And yes some of our other D besides Hanisey believe it or not turned the puck over too last year.

 

[Gnova]

Uh huh. The same experts were picking Canada to win gold at the juniors too, no doubt.

I still don't think he's worth a used puck bag, but I've been wrong before, so I'll keep an open mind this season.

I really don't understand the Hainsey hate in this thread.

I'll re-state one of my questions from earlier in the thread.

One minute remaining in a important game and the Jets have a one goal lead with a face off in the defensive zone.
Which D-man on the roster would you rather see on the ice in that situation before Hainsey?

My answer is none.

He doesn't play a flashy style so it is much less likely for you to see good positional play and more likely to see the very very rare mistakes.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

Guys like Hainsey, Antropov and Buff have such a target on them with the majority of fans. They are waiting for a mistake. They watch Antropov waiting to point out that he isn't busting his ass, or point out every pinch Buff makes or every turnover by Hainsey. Darth Handsome is a prime example of this when he says he will be paying even closer attention to him this year (granted he does say looking for good or bad), but the majority have their mind made up and look for the mistake. Last year I had a guy sit behind me and commentate every bad move by Hainsey (good plays obviously ignored), it drove me nuts. These bullseyes on their back make it impossible for them. As someone said before Buff isn't the only one who pinches on the Jets - did anyone see any of Randy Jones's beauties last year? Antropov isn't the only guy who doesn't bust his ass all the time - not to mention his style and body type which I could go on and on about. And yes some of our other D besides Hanisey believe it or not turned the puck over too last year.

What I'll be looking for is positives. I saw more than enough negatives, so I'm curious to see if that was all in my head.

 

[Darth Handsome*]

He doesn't play a flashy style so it is much less likely for you to see good positional play and more likely to see the very very rare mistakes.

Yeah. I'm a dummy and all I notice is flash.