LHD Ron Hainsey; Biography and Statistical Breakdown

[ps241]

I didn't even know the bozo had fans. This thread is very enlightening. The most common phrase among the peeps I watched games with was "******* Hainsey!". I'll be sure to pay even closer attention this year & see which camp is out to lunch. Maybe there's something to be said for both sides' POV.

hey Darth

One thing I appreciate from these threads especially with garret and truck and the advanced stats is that it has made me take a fresh 2nd look and it challenges me. I was always of the opinion that the stats didn't matter but I will say that some of the categories and breakdowns are really really compelling and I am now a big fan of the blended approach.

I believe half the reason Ron was (is) a whipping boy last year is that he was making $4 million and the average fan went WTF are we paying that bum $4 million for and the next thing you know he was a target. Also Antro being slow and making allot of cash.....target. Buff making bad pinch’s and seemingly being out of shape.............love em or hate em type target. GST being the underdogs..........loved..........Stuie being all guts.......loved. Toby took some heat on this board because it seemed like he was oversold and yet the stats tell a story of a very top pairing D man. Much of what I said might be gross oversimplification but there are patterns in group think and the stats don't always align with it.

If nothing else the debate is pretty rich and it comes from a position of this is what the numbers show so now what do you think?? I have found if I keep an open mind the debate can be really fascinating

 

[Darth Handsome*]

hey Darth

One thing I appreciate from these threads especially with garret and truck and the advanced stats is that it has made me take a fresh 2nd look and it challenges me. I was always of the opinion that the stats didn't matter but I will say that some of the categories and breakdowns are really really compelling and I am now a big fan of the blended approach.

I believe half the reason Ron was (is) a whipping boy last year is that he was making $4 million and the average fan went WTF are we paying that bum $4 million for and the next thing you know he was a target. Also Antro being slow and making allot of cash.....target. Buff making bad pinch’s and seemingly being out of shape.............love em or hate em type target. GST being the underdogs..........loved..........Stuie being all guts.......loved. Toby took some heat on this board because it seemed like he was oversold and yet the stats tell a story of a very top pairing D man. Much of what I said might be gross oversimplification but there are patterns in group think and the stats don't always align with it.

If nothing else the debate is pretty rich and it comes from a position of this is what the numbers show so now what do you think?? I have found if I keep an open mind the debate can be really fascinating

That's what I'm getting out of it, a reminder to keep an open mind.

The numbers & the opinions that oppose my own are going to let me examine his game more closely. I should say I didn't start out last year with an axe to grind with Ron Hainsey, salary notwithstanding, & I certainly wasn't influenced by anyone other than what I saw (or though I saw) with my own eyes.

Nothing anyone is saying here falls on deaf ears on this end. I don't know everything, that's for sure.

 

[Gnova]

Yeah. I'm a dummy and all I notice is flash.

So I guess by your selective answer you agree with me that Hainsey would be your #1 choice to be on the ice as well.

 

[ps241]

That's what I'm getting out of it, a reminder to keep an open mind.

The numbers & the opinions that oppose my own are going to let me examine his game more closely. I should say I didn't start out last year with an axe to grind with Ron Hainsey, salary notwithstanding, & I certainly wasn't influenced by anyone other than what I saw (or though I saw) with my own eyes.

Nothing anyone is saying here falls on deaf ears on this end. I don't know everything, that's for sure.

Yea good post

I didn't mean to make it seem like I thought you were closed minded on this. Seems like you are enjoying the debate.

 

[HannuJ]

Uh huh. The same experts were picking Canada to win gold at the juniors too, no doubt.

I still don't think he's worth a used puck bag, but I've been wrong before, so I'll keep an open mind this season.

Hainsey does most things right and nothing horribly wrong.
not a star, but dependable. a poor man's Teppo but with more unused offensive talent.

it's the latter that was most frustrating.

 

[Gm0ney]

hey Darth

One thing I appreciate from these threads especially with garret and truck and the advanced stats is that it has made me take a fresh 2nd look and it challenges me. I was always of the opinion that the stats didn't matter but I will say that some of the categories and breakdowns are really really compelling and I am now a big fan of the blended approach.

I believe half the reason Ron was (is) a whipping boy last year is that he was making $4 million and the average fan went WTF are we paying that bum $4 million for and the next thing you know he was a target. Also Antro being slow and making allot of cash.....target. Buff making bad pinch’s and seemingly being out of shape.............love em or hate em type target. GST being the underdogs..........loved..........Stuie being all guts.......loved. Toby took some heat on this board because it seemed like he was oversold and yet the stats tell a story of a very top pairing D man. Much of what I said might be gross oversimplification but there are patterns in group think and the stats don't always align with it.

If nothing else the debate is pretty rich and it comes from a position of this is what the numbers show so now what do you think?? I have found if I keep an open mind the debate can be really fascinating

Hey! He was paid $5 million!

Yeah, as was mentioned earlier - confirmation bias, where you start from the contention that Hainsey makes too much money and so you ignore positives and focus on negatives is partly responsible for the Hainsey hate.

A note about advanced stats: I find them fascinating, but I'm sceptical about the insight they actually bring and which numbers are actually the important ones. When these stats suggest that Ron Hainsey is a stalwart defenseman and makes his partners better...maybe some of that has to do with the high on-ice save percentage he benefited from last year? If he had Buff's on-ice SV%, the rest of those numbers wouldn't look so rosy. Was his presence on the ice the reason for the high SV%? I thought SV% wasn't a team stat, but an individual goalie stat (i.e. over time his save percentage should be about the same no matter who's on the ice). I mean, when the best thing that can be said on here about watching Hainsey's game last year was that he wasn't usually noticeable and wasn't coughing up the puck in the slot Oduya-style, I'm not sure I'm willing to change my mind about him based on the numbers alone.

 

[truck]

Hey! He was paid $5 million!

Yeah, as was mentioned earlier - confirmation bias, where you start from the contention that Hainsey makes too much money and so you ignore positives and focus on negatives is partly responsible for the Hainsey hate.

A note about advanced stats: I find them fascinating, but I'm sceptical about the insight they actually bring and which numbers are actually the important ones. When these stats suggest that Ron Hainsey is a stalwart defenseman and makes his partners better...maybe some of that has to do with the high on-ice save percentage he benefited from last year? If he had Buff's on-ice SV%, the rest of those numbers wouldn't look so rosy. Was his presence on the ice the reason for the high SV%? I thought SV% wasn't a team stat, but an individual goalie stat (i.e. over time his save percentage should be about the same no matter who's on the ice). I mean, when the best thing that can be said on here about watching Hainsey's game last year was that he wasn't usually noticeable and wasn't coughing up the puck in the slot Oduya-style, I'm not sure I'm willing to change my mind about him based on the numbers alone.

On Ice SV% surely did impact his +/- it wouldn't have impacted his shots totals though.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I think the obvious concern with Hainsey right now is his conditioning. I'm not sure he'll have had as much time on the ice as almost everyone else in the league. In a short season, that's unfortunate.

I expect the plan for Hainsey was to have a decent season and turn into a 2nd round draft pick or two at the deadline (a la Oduya). If he can't play well enough to garner a decent return, might as well try to extend him for a couple of years at $5-6m.

Remember when you're thinking of what a player is worth, discount 12% for the new economic environment.

 

[garret9]

Hey! He was paid $5 million!

Yeah, as was mentioned earlier - confirmation bias, where you start from the contention that Hainsey makes too much money and so you ignore positives and focus on negatives is partly responsible for the Hainsey hate.

A note about advanced stats: I find them fascinating, but I'm sceptical about the insight they actually bring and which numbers are actually the important ones. When these stats suggest that Ron Hainsey is a stalwart defenseman and makes his partners better...maybe some of that has to do with the high on-ice save percentage he benefited from last year? If he had Buff's on-ice SV%, the rest of those numbers wouldn't look so rosy. Was his presence on the ice the reason for the high SV%? I thought SV% wasn't a team stat, but an individual goalie stat (i.e. over time his save percentage should be about the same no matter who's on the ice). I mean, when the best thing that can be said on here about watching Hainsey's game last year was that he wasn't usually noticeable and wasn't coughing up the puck in the slot Oduya-style, I'm not sure I'm willing to change my mind about him based on the numbers alone.

I agree with you on your ideas about sv% and other things. Stats will never, ever, ever be a be-all in hockey (IMHO). Hockey has too many variables. This is why I'm not a fan of "catch-all" stats like GVT (although I find them interesting). But, I think they can still help determine things, disprove misconceptions, etc.

In regards to onice-sv% (a lot of this is my interpretation/opinion and not hardline fact):
*I deem sv% predominately goalie and not defense driven on a macro value (1000s of shots in the year a goalie faces each year)... which I'd say is more or less discussed by stat guys when they look at how very very very very very few coaches (I think it's one or two) have had long term, consistent success in significantly raising their goaltenders sv%
*when it comes to a micro level like individual situations these may change from higher range of shots being in high threat areas (perfect example you noted above being in the slot)

Personally I am fine with you being skeptical about onice-sv% interpretations as I'm not even 100% on them. I do think there is some correlation to them as when you look at on-ice shot/goal densities when Hainsey's on the ice as when Byfuglien's on the ice... but, the degree is actually completely unknown to me. (Byfuglien's team leading worst onice-sv% and my hypothesis that this was connected to him creating a lot of 2-on-1's and such were the reason I had just recently started looking at onice-sv%)

Shot-wise, I think the prevention of shots-against and ability to promote shots-for are better stats when it comes to talent.
SA/60 + RelCorsi in the adv-stats tables (just realized now I don't have Hainsey's SA/60 in there... will add later) and the CF% in the WOWY table would be the best ones.
They all seem to say the same story.


Looking at the with Bogosian table... all things equal do I think that a bit of poor luck dropped Oduya's GF% way lower than his CF% and maybe a bit of good luck pushed up Hainsey's GF% above his CF%?... ya I think it's most likely possible...
It's kinda like Truck once said in one of his AIH reports:

Note: Statistically, shot totals have been proven to be more repeatable than goal totals as they rely less on chance, but scoring and preventing goals are the aim of players. Therefore, it will also be included in this analysis.

 

[garret9]

I think the obvious concern with Hainsey right now is his conditioning. I'm not sure he'll have had as much time on the ice as almost everyone else in the league. In a short season, that's unfortunate.

I expect the plan for Hainsey was to have a decent season and turn into a 2nd round draft pick or two at the deadline (a la Oduya). If he can't play well enough to garner a decent return, might as well try to extend him for a couple of years at $5-6m.

Remember when you're thinking of what a player is worth, discount 12% for the new economic environment.

I wrote positive things about him in this thread and I say his worth in the old economic environment was 3-3.5...
But, I'm also bad with contracts

 

[Gil Fisher]

I wrote positive things about him in this thread and I say his worth in the old economic environment was 3-3.5...
But, I'm also bad with contracts

I meant $5-6m for two years (ie 2.5-3.0 per)

 

[garret9]

I meant $5-6m for two years (ie 2.5-3.0 per)

AHHH! My apologies then; I quite agree.

 

[Becel]

Hey! He was paid $5 million!

Yeah, as was mentioned earlier - confirmation bias, where you start from the contention that Hainsey makes too much money and so you ignore positives and focus on negatives is partly responsible for the Hainsey hate.

A note about advanced stats: I find them fascinating, but I'm sceptical about the insight they actually bring and which numbers are actually the important ones. When these stats suggest that Ron Hainsey is a stalwart defenseman and makes his partners better...maybe some of that has to do with the high on-ice save percentage he benefited from last year? If he had Buff's on-ice SV%, the rest of those numbers wouldn't look so rosy. Was his presence on the ice the reason for the high SV%? I thought SV% wasn't a team stat, but an individual goalie stat (i.e. over time his save percentage should be about the same no matter who's on the ice). I mean, when the best thing that can be said on here about watching Hainsey's game last year was that he wasn't usually noticeable and wasn't coughing up the puck in the slot Oduya-style, I'm not sure I'm willing to change my mind about him based on the numbers alone.

I see this as a direct correlation to Hainsey having a high SV% when he is on the ice. SV% for a goalie as a whole is a pretty general stat, it gives you a broad stroke of how a goalie is playing. What it doesn't do is take into account quality of chances. You elude to it wiht your comments on Oduya's turnovers. I would say that Hainsey's is so good - as garret said - because he isn't pinching leading to odd man rushes, isn't serving up apple turnovers for 99 cents in the slot, and he is responsible in his own end - doesn't get beat one on one, ties up his guy in front, stays in good position.

If over time the sv% balanced out over the year wouldn't everyone on the Jets have roughly the same +/-? Hence Hainsey being +9 and most other D being a minus.

 

[Gm0ney]

I see this as a direct correlation to Hainsey having a high SV% when he is on the ice. SV% for a goalie as a whole is a pretty general stat, it gives you a broad stroke of how a goalie is playing. What it doesn't do is take into account quality of chances. You elude to it wiht your comments on Oduya's turnovers. I would say that Hainsey's is so good - as garret said - because he isn't pinching leading to odd man rushes, isn't serving up apple turnovers for 99 cents in the slot, and he is responsible in his own end - doesn't get beat one on one, ties up his guy in front, stays in good position.

If over time the sv% balanced out over the year wouldn't everyone on the Jets have roughly the same +/-? Hence Hainsey being +9 and most other D being a minus.

Whoa, whoa...I think we're saying "don't go betting your life on On-ice SV%". Know who else had a great on-ice SV%? Johnny "Free Pizza" Oduya. Way better than Enstrom (2nd last on-ice SV% on the team). Randy Jones also had a much better on-ice sv% than Enstrom. I think the stat boils down to luck more than anything. If it's directly attributable to Hainsey being on the ice, then is Jones decent on-ice SV% due to his steady defense and the fact he doesn't make bad turnovers or get beat like Toby Enstrom? People with eyes would say that's not the case.

That being said, having the good fortune of a high on-ice SV% will make your +/- look better.

I think my original point was that every average player has a mix of good and bad advanced stats - so you can make a case that any player is better or worse than they appear from just watching the game.

For example, in terms of Relative Corsi, Enstrom and Buff are head and shoulders the best D on the team. Close to top in the league. Hainsey is 2nd last on the Jets, 177th in the league (for D with 30+ games). But then when you look at zone starts, Hainsey's had the toughest job on the team. Hainsey's PDO is 1013 - so he's generally had good luck...which means he actually may have overperformed last season. There's an OTOH for every stat! Anyway, it's all fascinating and still quite difficult to discern the meaningful numbers (at least for me).

 

[garret9]

Whoa, whoa...I think we're saying "don't go betting your life on On-ice SV%". Know who else had a great on-ice SV%? Johnny "Free Pizza" Oduya. Way better than Enstrom (2nd last on-ice SV% on the team). Randy Jones also had a much better on-ice sv% than Enstrom. I think the stat boils down to luck more than anything. If it's directly attributable to Hainsey being on the ice, then is Jones decent on-ice SV% due to his steady defense and the fact he doesn't make bad turnovers or get beat like Toby Enstrom? People with eyes would say that's not the case.

That being said, having the good fortune of a high on-ice SV% will make your +/- look better.

I think my original point was that every average player has a mix of good and bad advanced stats - so you can make a case that any player is better or worse than they appear from just watching the game.

For example, in terms of Relative Corsi, Enstrom and Buff are head and shoulders the best D on the team. Close to top in the league. Hainsey is 2nd last on the Jets, 177th in the league (for D with 30+ games). But then when you look at zone starts, Hainsey's had the toughest job on the team. Hainsey's PDO is 1013 - so he's generally had good luck...which means he actually may have overperformed last season. There's an OTOH for every stat! Anyway, it's all fascinating and still quite difficult to discern the meaningful numbers (at least for me).

SV%: I think you're right there... I think my interpretations may be off. But, I'm still holding to my Byfuglien consistently having the teams lowest is a sign there is some correlation to it.
With PDO, you could be write but I don't like using PDO relative to 1000 but rather I prefer to look at it relative to the team's average (which doesn't help Hainsey's case).

With Hainsey though his ability to reduce shots and goals (even if sv% is inflated) still places him at #4 on the Jets. And, my watching the game saw the same thing as the stats say... That's why I show the stats and then give my interpretations of them relative to what I saw.

With the Corsi Enstrom/Byfuglien thing... they are some of the top Dmen in the league. I truly think so and not just stat wise.

 

[Jet]

That's what I'm getting out of it, a reminder to keep an open mind.

The numbers & the opinions that oppose my own are going to let me examine his game more closely. I should say I didn't start out last year with an axe to grind with Ron Hainsey, salary notwithstanding, & I certainly wasn't influenced by anyone other than what I saw (or though I saw) with my own eyes.

Nothing anyone is saying here falls on deaf ears on this end. I don't know everything, that's for sure.

I love that you have an open mind about it.

I know there are players that I had a GIGANTIC act to grind with who turned out to really impress me. Blake Wheeler was one, and I wanted Byfuglien shipped out for pucks for the first half of last year.

I am trying to let my bias affect me to that extent anymore. Ladd is a guy I am really trying to keep an open mind about. I know he scores but his penchant for bad penalties at awful times really sticks in my craw, especially since he's the captain.

Guess I'm saying lots of us could learn to be more open minded about players.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Guess I'm saying lots of us could learn to be more open minded about players.

Except Ran_y Jones. **** him.







(I'll say this though, he was much better than I thought, he'd have been decent last year as our #8 D...)

 

[Jet]

Except Ran_y Jones. **** him.

Well he's no Corey Perry

 

[Darth Handsome*]

So I guess by your selective answer you agree with me that Hainsey would be your #1 choice to be on the ice as well.

Nope. If he wasn't a healthy scratch, I'd have most likely benched him by the 3rd

 

[Huffer]

I love that you have an open mind about it.

I know there are players that I had a GIGANTIC act to grind with who turned out to really impress me. Blake Wheeler was one, and I wanted Byfuglien shipped out for pucks for the first half of last year.

I am trying to let my bias affect me to that extent anymore. Ladd is a guy I am really trying to keep an open mind about. I know he scores but his penchant for bad penalties at awful times really sticks in my craw, especially since he's the captain.

Guess I'm saying lots of us could learn to be more open minded about players.

I think someone did some analysis on that as well.

 

[garret9]

I think someone did some analysis on that as well.

I believe that was the illegal curve guys and he was similar to Wheeler and many other topline guys.

 

[Gm0ney]

I believe that was the illegal curve guys and he was similar to Wheeler and many other topline guys.

http://illegalcurve.com/2012/03/22/andrew-ladd-perception-or-reality/