So, I took a look at Boston and Toronto’s loses and how many have been to teams currently not in a playoff position.
BOSTON
Regulation: 3/7
OT/SO: 3/5
Total: 6/12 (50%)
TORONTO
Regulation: 5/12
OT/SO: 5/8
Total: 10/20 (50%)
Not sure if it means anything or not.
That’s interesting. But it goes to show there is no such thing as a light schedule. Theoretically those percentages should be closer to 80% if you are playing “weak” opponents.
Same percentage, just fewer losses for Boston -is also interesting. Years ago I started looking at losses instead of points during the majority of the season. GP is also a factor, but now Boston has lost a few lately if they had any games in hand they would be gone now. Losses is a good indicator of the challenge for teams below another.
Boston has a lot of advantages, a game in hand, 9 points ahead, 6.5 losses ahead (I count OTL as 1/2 a loss since you get a point). Next game is crucial to make up ground, a proverbial 4 point game if Leafs win in reg. Boston they will still have a game in hand, 7 points ahead, 5.5 losses ahead. But if Boston wins in reg. Boston they will still have a game in hand, 11 points ahead, 7.5 losses ahead.
It will be very hard to make up that in 30 games, but not impossible. Something like a 4.5% chance of being first in division (after 1000 simulations on money puck) it would take a magnificent nose dive by Boston not to maintain a lead on us. We are both 6-3-1 in the last 10. At the same rate. Boston would need to go 1-8-1 over the next three 10 game segments for us to catch them. (Assuming Boston wins their game in hand)
Disclaimer: I’m actually bad at math so don’t bet money based on the above word salad.