Series Talk: Leafs vs Jackets- Series Preview and Discussion - II

[Stephen]

Like I said, if your team is playing in a multi game head to head matchup, it's a playoff round.

 

[Morbo]

Their definition of this as a playoff round does not square with their lottery plan.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Leafs should dominate this talent light Columbus team. Yes, they did sweep TB last year but they had Panarin and Bob. Realistically, we should expect a quick series. The problem is that with our team can they work hard? Will they think that they can just outskill Columbus?

What makes you think they won't work as hard as Columbus? Just curious.

Just because we're a skilled team doesn't mean the top guys don't work as hard as anybody else. We were 27-14-5 under Keefe (4th in the NHL) with Marincin getting regular minutes and Andersen/Hutch playing awful for a stretch.

If used properly, this roster with Muzzin/Rielly/Ceci back SHOULD be able to put together a really strong run.

 

[stickty111]

What makes you think they won't work as hard as Columbus? Just curious.

Just because we're a skilled team doesn't mean the top guys don't work as hard as anybody else. We were 27-14-5 under Keefe (4th in the NHL) with Marincin getting regular minutes and Andersen/Hutch playing awful for a stretch.

If used properly, this roster with Muzzin/Rielly/Ceci back SHOULD be able to put together a really strong run.

By reading some people's posts, you would think all other 30 teams work hard every day, and we are the only team who doesn't.
No team not even the elite ones work hard every game, they just don't.
I don't think our problem is an effort problem, it's more our mindset which can change in a hurry. We have beaten some great teams under Keefe, but also lost to weak teams which tells me it's more mindset.

 

[Stephen]

I may as well post this here

Former Marlies assistant Jack Han with another interesting piece this time on Dermott. Skipping the contract information on his piece, Han said he had the job of studying the Bruins top line, and here is what he said in the piece.

"In the spring of 2018 I was tasked with studying the Boston Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak in anticipation of the Leafs’ first-round playoff series. What we realized what that, at 5v5, Marchand was the catalyst of the line’s outstanding transitional play. From the left half-wall in his defensive zone, Marchand was consistently able to either skate or pass the puck into the middle of the ice for his linemates and create chances off the rush. For a team whose right side consisted of Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev and Roman Polak, this was a big problem.

The solution I proposed to the front office and the coaching staff was the following: promote Dermott to first-pair right-D alongside Morgan Reilly.
Dermott was and remains one of the league’s best defensemen at playing a tight gap and killing plays early, which would take away Marchand’s time and space when breaking the puck out.
Not only was Dermott more skilled and fleet of foot than Hainsey, Zaitsev or Polak, but he also had a X-factor working in his favor. To me, he was one of the only players on the Leafs’ roster who could get under Marchand’s skin throughout a long playoff series and beat the Bostonian pest at his own game. If Marchand ever were to lick his face, Dermie may well call his bluff and do something extraordinary to turn the tables.
The plan was not adopted. In the fateful Game Seven, Dermott scored a goal but played only 11:20 (lowest among Leafs Ds).
To paraphrase Bernie Sanders, in 2020 I am once again asking for support in playing Dermott on his off-side. Not only would this provide Toronto with a legit top-4 option on right D, but also unlock Dermott’s hitherto untapped offensive potential."

I have actually been thinking about this. I might try Dermott with Rielly. Dermott holds an agressive tight gap, and that is something Rielly is atrocious at. Also Dermott and Rielly have been a pair during phase 2 so we'll see.

I wouldn't be averse to trying Dermott on RD on the first pairing but his description of Dermott seems a little too bullish, like he's forcing a Moneyball insight where it may just be marginally better to play someone with better wheels. Marchand did go up against guys like Seth Jones, Brett Pesce and Alex Pietrangelo on last year's run...

 

[Stephen]

Better wheels, great. How can Jack Han just factor out the difficulty of everything that's second nature on the forehand being on the backhand on the right side?

Let's face it, Marchand is an elite player and the Bruins were one win away from a cup win last year. Whatever tactical insight we needed there probably needed to be deeper than a modest personnel upgrade of converting a LHD into a RD for a better 1 on 1 match up or that Dermott might kiss Marchand back or something "unexpected."

If Marchand was the catalyst in the Bruins transition game from the LW position, that probably means our RW needed to be tasked with really assisting on the back pressure. And depending on whether or not Krug (LD) or McAvoy (RD) was more consistently matched with Marchand on their big unit, you probably needed a strategy to really disrupt the transition along their LW side or disrupt the RD to LW cross-ice puck movement.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I may as well post this here

Former Marlies assistant Jack Han with another interesting piece this time on Dermott. Skipping the contract information on his piece, Han said he had the job of studying the Bruins top line, and here is what he said in the piece.

"In the spring of 2018 I was tasked with studying the Boston Bruins’ top line of Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak in anticipation of the Leafs’ first-round playoff series. What we realized what that, at 5v5, Marchand was the catalyst of the line’s outstanding transitional play. From the left half-wall in his defensive zone, Marchand was consistently able to either skate or pass the puck into the middle of the ice for his linemates and create chances off the rush. For a team whose right side consisted of Ron Hainsey, Nikita Zaitsev and Roman Polak, this was a big problem.

The solution I proposed to the front office and the coaching staff was the following: promote Dermott to first-pair right-D alongside Morgan Reilly.
Dermott was and remains one of the league’s best defensemen at playing a tight gap and killing plays early, which would take away Marchand’s time and space when breaking the puck out.
Not only was Dermott more skilled and fleet of foot than Hainsey, Zaitsev or Polak, but he also had a X-factor working in his favor. To me, he was one of the only players on the Leafs’ roster who could get under Marchand’s skin throughout a long playoff series and beat the Bostonian pest at his own game. If Marchand ever were to lick his face, Dermie may well call his bluff and do something extraordinary to turn the tables.
The plan was not adopted. In the fateful Game Seven, Dermott scored a goal but played only 11:20 (lowest among Leafs Ds).
To paraphrase Bernie Sanders, in 2020 I am once again asking for support in playing Dermott on his off-side. Not only would this provide Toronto with a legit top-4 option on right D, but also unlock Dermott’s hitherto untapped offensive potential."

I have actually been thinking about this. I might try Dermott with Rielly. Dermott holds an agressive tight gap, and that is something Rielly is atrocious at. Also Dermott and Rielly have been a pair during phase 2 so we'll see.

Yupp the Bruins took advantage of this two year in a row. Again Babcock was unwilling to adjust his lines / system. He knew the right side sucked which is why every breakout went through the left side to the far RW for the stretch pass.

The Bruins are not idiots and caught on quickly and started pinching on our LD, cutting off passes and then feeding the forecheck through our weak side.

The fact that he was this stubborn doesn't surprise me though after everything we know about him now.

 

[rojac]

Their definition of this as a playoff round does not square with their lottery plan.

While the lottery has usually been expressed as non-playoff teams, I think the spirit of the lottery is bottom half of the league. Also, I don't think the lottery is just about "punishing" teams for tanking all the way to bottom but to incentivize bubble teams to continue to push for the playoffs. And even though teams like the Panthers and the Rangers are now playoff teams, they are still bubble teams and shouldn't be punished for failing to push into the top sixteen. Any other year, not being in the final sixteen teams competing for the cup earns you a shot at the draft lottery. They're doing the same thing this year.

As for counting the qualifying round (play-ins/seeding) stats as playoff stats, I think it comes down to three choicess.

1. Create a whole new category.
2. Count them as regular season stats.
3. Count them as playoff stats.

Consider #1. There may never be a situation like this again, so creating a new category that is likely to never be used again doesn't make a lot of sense.

And between #2 and #3, it probably simply makes more sense to count the stats with the games happening just after the qualifying round than with games that 4.5 months before. Not to mention there will 24-40 games in the qualifying round played under playoff rules as opposed to 12 games played under regular season rules.

And to be honest, how those stats are counted and playoff stats in general aren't terribly important. So, putting the qualifying round stats with the playoff stats is fine. On the other hand, things like the draft lottery, performance bonuses, and "making the playoff" trade conditions are much more important as they actually effect the business of running a hockey team and thus the stricter definition of making the playoffs (that is, being in the final sixteen teams competing for the cup).

 

[FlareKnight]

What makes you think they won't work as hard as Columbus? Just curious.

Just because we're a skilled team doesn't mean the top guys don't work as hard as anybody else. We were 27-14-5 under Keefe (4th in the NHL) with Marincin getting regular minutes and Andersen/Hutch playing awful for a stretch.

If used properly, this roster with Muzzin/Rielly/Ceci back SHOULD be able to put together a really strong run.

That record looks really good. But gets more interesting with them being extremely hot when Keefe first took over and extremely inconsistent leading into the Covid pause. Really is no telling if Toronto or Florida was going to throw away a playoff spot. Both were making a great attempt to throw it away. Effort level and mentality remain issues for this group. Of course they don't work as hard as everyone else. If they did they'd be a far better team and far more consistent then they are. It may be something they figure out over time, but it is certainly an issue for them.

If the Leafs work as hard as anyone then you don't even need a safety net with assertions. Work as hard as Columbus they will have a long playoff run. Because they can rely on their talent to cover their effort levels it ends up being on the level of what they should be able to do if used properly. These playoffs are an opportunity and a challenge. Pull through and they get the well deserved praise for it. Fall apart and they'll also deserve the results that come from that. Time to make the most of their talents.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Better wheels, great. How can Jack Han just factor out the difficulty of everything that's second nature on the forehand being on the backhand on the right side?

I guess he did not factor it out.

I thought it was pretty well known that Dermott had experience at RD. He played there in the AHL too. I've probably mentioned it a dozen times since 2015. Otherwise, there would be a lot less people who are considering him as a RD option (including me), and there would be a lot more people saying he would not be able to just randomly move over to the RD because we need RD (including me).

 

[stickty111]

With Muzzin in the lineup, we were 20-10-1
Without Muzzin, 7-5-4
Sounds like the problem was when we lost Muzzin. It's not we had a great start, and then faded because we don't have a strong work ethic. It's because we lost arguably our most important defenceman.

Here is another thing, we were without our 2 best defenceman in Rielly and Muzzin under Keefe for 7 games, and we went 4-3-3

Without Rielly, we went 11-9-3

The problems start when we lose any of the 2.
Infact, Keefe deserves credit for keeping the team afloat when any of those 2 were hurt, and lets not forget Andersen being awful during that stretch, and Hutchinson as well.

When our defence is healthy, we have been a really good team.

 

[biotk]

I guess he did not factor it out.

I thought it was pretty well known that Dermott had experience at RD. He played there in the AHL too. I've probably mentioned it a dozen times since 2015. Otherwise, there would be a lot less people who are considering him as a RD option (including me), and there would be a lot more people saying he would not be able to just randomly move over to the RD because we need RD (including me).

I am indifferent as to whether Dermott can play well on the right side. If he can he can. If he can't he can't. And I don't see why play on the right side at lower levels would factor into that at all. Feel the same way for Rielly, Muzzin, Sandin, Lehtonen, Rosen and Marincin.

However, I watched Dermott play more than 2 dozen games for the Marlies - all them on the left side. And Doerrie's mentioning of Dermott playing on the right side is pre-Marlies.

But didn't Dermott play mostly on the right side for 10 games last season? When he was paired with Gardiner for 3 games last February and then again for all 7 games in the playoffs. I don't remember - but when I look at highlights (mostly lowlights) from a couple of those games it looks like Dermott is mostly on the right.

 

[Havoc]

On paper this match up isn't even fair.

Andersen better not F around.

 

[IPS]

On paper this match up isn't even fair.

Depends who you ask

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

That record looks really good. But gets more interesting with them being extremely hot when Keefe first took over and extremely inconsistent leading into the Covid pause. Really is no telling if Toronto or Florida was going to throw away a playoff spot. Both were making a great attempt to throw it away. Effort level and mentality remain issues for this group. Of course they don't work as hard as everyone else. If they did they'd be a far better team and far more consistent then they are. It may be something they figure out over time, but it is certainly an issue for them.

If the Leafs work as hard as anyone then you don't even need a safety net with assertions. Work as hard as Columbus they will have a long playoff run. Because they can rely on their talent to cover their effort levels it ends up being on the level of what they should be able to do if used properly. These playoffs are an opportunity and a challenge. Pull through and they get the well deserved praise for it. Fall apart and they'll also deserve the results that come from that. Time to make the most of their talents.

So struggling because they're getting sub .900SV% goaltending and half of their D-core missing including their best two guys are not good enough reasons to describe inconsistency for a stretch? The offense was still ridiculous.

Again like I said earlier and in other posts, if the defense is healthy, and Andersen plays better, this team will go on a long run. It has nothing to do with their effort level, they all work hard.

 

[IPS]

With Muzzin in the lineup, we were 20-10-1
Without Muzzin, 7-5-4
Sounds like the problem was when we lost Muzzin. It's not we had a great start, and then faded because we don't have a strong work ethic. It's because we lost arguably our most important defenceman.

Here is another thing, we were without our 2 best defenceman in Rielly and Muzzin under Keefe for 7 games, and we went 4-3-3

Without Rielly, we went 11-9-3

The problems start when we lose any of the 2.
Infact, Keefe deserves credit for keeping the team afloat when any of those 2 were hurt, and lets not forget Andersen being awful during that stretch, and Hutchinson as well.

When our defence is healthy, we have been a really good team.

I'm digging how underestimated the Leafs are going into this thing.

Even from our own board people talk so much shit about this team and downplay them so much. The whole thing with Muzzin/Rielly going down simultaneously was the first time since we've dealt with that type of catastrophic D injuries since we've been a playoff team. People just let their agendas get so wild that they want to pretend that wasn't any sort of big deal. If that same thing happened under Babcock you can bet your ass they'd be scrambling to defend him non-stop.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That record looks really good. But gets more interesting with them being extremely hot when Keefe first took over and extremely inconsistent leading into the Covid pause.

I think what you meant to say was that they were dominant when somewhat healthy, and inconsistent when the whole team started dropping like flies and their goaltending played horribly at the same time.

Effort level and mentality remain issues for this group. Of course they don't work as hard as everyone else.

This is false. We work just as hard as other teams.

 

[mikeyz]

Are you forgetting our season? We were the most injured out of the entire "Rebuild" era. We were missing Muzzin and Rielly for significant parts of the season, and they were playing hurt during other times. We lost 2 top 9 forwards for significant time (Soup and Johnsson) We lost Tavares and Marner for stretches.

And to top it off, Freddy has his worst season as a Leaf. Oh, and the whole Babcock thing to start the year. I am pretty confident in saying this year is an outlier more than anything. Let's see what happens when the puck drops. I'll take talent over grit every time.

Very well said.

 

[deletethis]

But didn't Dermott play mostly on the right side for 10 games last season? When he was paired with Gardiner for 3 games last February and then again for all 7 games in the playoffs. I don't remember - but when I look at highlights (mostly lowlights) from a couple of those games it looks like Dermott is mostly on the right.

Dermott did play the right side into the playoffs and the consensus around here was that he wasn't quite the same during that period of the season. The reaction from that playoffs by Dubas wasn't to project Dermott on the right side in 2019-20 but to transform the entire right side effectively from Hainsey, Zaitsev, Dermott to Barrie, Ceci, Holl. And when injuries struck we saw Marincin get the right side minutes with a smathering going to Liljegren.

P.S. Playing with Gardiner at his most wandering, it's like you end up playing the right side and left side during the same shift.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Are you forgetting our season? We were the most injured out of the entire "Rebuild" era. We were missing Muzzin and Rielly for significant parts of the season, and they were playing hurt during other times. We lost 2 top 9 forwards for significant time (Soup and Johnsson) We lost Tavares and Marner for stretches.

And to top it off, Freddy has his worst season as a Leaf. Oh, and the whole Babcock thing to start the year. I am pretty confident in saying this year is an outlier more than anything. Let's see what happens when the puck drops. I'll take talent over grit every time.

Are you forgetting that CLB had more games lost to injury than we did? Do you think it's a guarantee that Freddy plays well? Do you not understand that considering all the time off, variance is a much bigger consideration than it usually is?

I think we should be favourites, all I said was that we shouldn't count on it being an easy win. I take talent over grit as well but it doesn't always work out that way - see CLB last season.

 

[the wood guy]

remember that both dermott and gardiner had only played a handfull of games after being out over a month . neither were even close to 100 %. right after the series didn't dermott end up getting shoulder surgery
I agree with the shadow that the whole series dermott looked like he was trying to cover both sides of the ice cause he was never sure what jake was going to do next. that pairing in their condition, with little prior experience working together, was doomed to look bad

 

[Gary Nylund]

This is going to be a crapshoot of whoever comes in hot to start with .. They've basically had an off-season off now between the stoppage and play resuming.

Yup. In that sense, these are the most unpredictable playoffs in a very long time, maybe ever.

Columbus is a solid team but we really should win this series.
At our current timeline with our young players, having dealt away assets to be good now, it would be extremely dissapointing to not even be able to win a "play in" and would make me question if we can win with our current roster setup.

The one thing that makes me like this matchup is that they dont have 1 star forward or even a great forward group that can consistently expose our weaker spot (defence).

Boston could always throw out that one line and basically exploit our team weakness. Columbus dont have that and thus if we show up willing to work hard and come close to matching their intensity, this should end with us winning because we have the more talented roster. The problem with this group is you dont really know what team is going to show up work ethic wise and if they're willing to do the small things to win games.

I kind of feel the same way but I keep reminding myself that it's only a 5 games series after the equivalent of an entire off-season so we probably shouldn't overreact no matter what happens.

Exactly. I just don't see them having anything remotely close to that Bruins first line. Imo the Leafs showed last playoffs they have the potential to meet these teams at 5v5, but they will still need to mentally get it together: Matthews, Marner, Nylander especially will need to lesd the team like they are paid to do.

The only potential thing I see sinking the Leafs is if Andersen is off his game. But at least Campbell could potentially be a bit of a safeguard there

If we were to lose game 1 with Andersen playing poorly, we'll be two games away from elimination and in huge trouble, Campbell or no Campbell.

 

[Suntouchable13]

What makes you think they won't work as hard as Columbus? Just curious.

Just because we're a skilled team doesn't mean the top guys don't work as hard as anybody else. We were 27-14-5 under Keefe (4th in the NHL) with Marincin getting regular minutes and Andersen/Hutch playing awful for a stretch.

If used properly, this roster with Muzzin/Rielly/Ceci back SHOULD be able to put together a really strong run.

It's just been a problem I had with this squad, just looks like they think they can just beat teams by showing up. I don't disagree with you, just saying what I have been seeing from this group. Maybe I am underestimating Columbus, but I want to see a quick series. Having said that, even if they take all 5 games to win I am not going to complain. Just win this series.

 

[Nooodles]

 

[Mess]

Did you not see this paragraph which said the following.

"Teams participating in a best-of-five series during the Stanley Cup Qualifiers are considered to have made the postseason and participated in a postseason series."

So no one can say the Maple Leafs missed the playoffs in 2020 and that means their streak of making them is up to 4 years in a row.

So the 8 teams that lose in the Qualifying Play-in round are nether "Missed Playoffs" nor 'Made Playoffs". but rather simply "Non playoff" teams.

Those qualifying losing teams have Zero % chance at the Stanley Cup as that is for the 16 playoff teams to play for in the 4 X best of 7 rounds to decide, and these non-playoff teams now fall into the draft lottery process with 1 team earning the right to pick #1 overall.

This this year there will be 3 categories instead of the normal 2.

7 X missed playoff teams (those teams that after 70 games were at the bottom of the standings)
8 X non playoff teams (those 8 teams that lose in play-in round, and participate in draft lottery)
16 X playoff teams (those 8 teams that win their play-in round and join the 8 teams already in to compete for the Stanley Cup.

Seems its down to semantics of splitting hairs between missed playoffs and non-playoff teams.

Our Leafs could technically lose in the play-in round, not win the draft lottery and forfeit our already traded 1st round pick, and then could claim, "well at least we didn't miss the playoffs" on a Covid technicality.