Leafs get back to .500 in goal differential

[gtforepro]

Leafs 103 - Rest of NHL 103

Looking at the standings the last few years, goal differential seems to be the cutoff for making the playoffs. Positive you're in, negative you're out...anyways, the Leafs are better than the standings indicate at the moment. I think things will even out and they'll squeak into the playoffs...weird...

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[SprDaVE]

It's pretty amazing that even with the current play and wins, they are only on pace to finish with 94 points, which isn't usually enough for the playoffs.

 

[Pookie]

It's the NHL's loser point system. Keep it close as long as possible and sell tickets.

The Leafs are .500? So are 25 other teams. In a league of 30 teams, how in the hell are 26 teams above .500? If you ever needed proof as to the joke that is this Loser point system, that's it.

Real record is 16-22.

The goal differential is the main take away here. Highly correlated with success. It requires Bernier to continue playing at a pace above .960... but that, more than Corsi, is what will determine success.

 

[thewave]

They know how to play as a team and Babcock knows how to manage lines and people.

It's amazing what you can build on a solid foundation. The organization is now full of knowledgable people who can see who has good work ethic and knows that if someone doesn't, they aren't playing.

A functional team is better than any 5 superstars surrounded by passengers.

 

[Mess]

Leafs goal differential on the season is now even or 0.

There are a lot of teams ahead of the Leafs in the current standings that are negative and some as much at > -20

It is a living testament to how well the Leafs are playing under Babcock and how successful his system is when player focus on defense as much as offense.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Leafs goal differential on the season is now even or 0.

There are a lot of teams ahead of the Leafs in the current standings that are negative and some as much at > -20

It is a living testament to how well the Leafs are playing under Babcock and how successful his system is when player focus on defense as much as offense.

Leafs have games at hand on several teams. If will be interesting to see if they can leapfrog those teams. Harder to do with the loser point system in place, but possible.

 

[Mess]

Leafs have games at hand on several teams. If will be interesting to see if they can leapfrog those teams. Harder to do with the loser point system in place, but possible.

Goal differential is a good forecaster of future success.

Teams that are current ahead of Toronto by are double digit negative goal differential are more like to fall over time as giving up more goals then you score can only have one result as the sample size increases.

Even if the Leafs were to stand still, teams that are poor defensively and give up more goals then they score are going to naturally fall past the Leafs.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Tank Commander Bernier is going AWOL.
Anything but 9th in the East please.

 

[bobermay]

Man... how disappointing would it be if the last game of the season came down to Pittsburgh or us making the playoffs.... do we tank or go for it?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Goal differential is a good forecaster of future success.

Teams that are current ahead of Toronto by are double digit negative goal differential are more like to fall over time as giving up more goals then you score can only have one result as the sample size increases.

Even if the Leafs were to stand still, teams that are poor defensively and give up more goals then they score are going to naturally fall past the Leafs.

Based on what I've been seeing from this Leafs team in December & the first week of January, it would not surprise me to see us leapfrog some teams. Just saying the loser point system makes it more difficult. Saying it was "possible" was probably understated. The intent was not to say it couldn't happen or would be unlikely even.

 

[Mess]

Based on what I've been seeing from this Leafs team in December & the first week of January, it would not surprise me to see us leapfrog some teams. Just saying the loser point system makes it more difficult.

No question the loser point plays a big factor in the standings.

However logic would suggest that if Leafs remain close to the 0 goal differential mark that they're in fact playing in close games and therefore likely to gain their own share of loser points even in losses, and might gain on teams simply by out loser pointing them down the stretch.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

No question the loser point plays a big factor in the standings.

However logic would suggest that if Leafs remain close to the 0 goal differential mark that they're in fact playing in close games and therefore likely to gain their own share of loser points even in losses, and might gain on teams simply by out loser pointing them down the stretch.

I'm not disagreeing. Please reread my post which I edited to better reflect what I was trying to say. The edit is copied below for convenience.

Saying it was "possible" was probably understated. The intent was not to say it couldn't happen or would be unlikely even.

 

[The CyNick]

Hate the "500" talk. As others have mentioned, it's a meaningless, and frankly ignorant stat. I always feel people who refer to a team that has a record like the Leafs as a 500 team, don't understand that the final number in 16-15-7 are all losses. So really we are 16-22. It's not like 84 points will get you in the playoffs. So "500" is a stupid thing to talk about.

I agree with Mess that looking at goal differential is a better indicator of future success. More often than not in the final standings, the teams with positive goal differential are in the playoffs, and the negative teams are out.

 

[Kubus]

I agree with most that point percentage is a poor stat, especially with 3 point games. It's still a official NHL stat that represents something in the NHL. It's really the 3 point games that are stupid.

Saying that this team is not a .500 team is very wrong as it means something specific in the NHL; however, saying that the stat is stupid or meaningless is something most will probably agree with. The funny thing is that win percentage probably means less in the NHL then point percentage. In theory a team could go 46-36-0(92 points) and not make the playoffs while a team could go 11-0-71(93 points) and make the playoffs. yes it's all theory but it just shows that win % means very little in the NHL while we have 3 point games.

 

[Phatic]

I'll add you also have to consider scoring pace. They showed last night the leafs are scoring at over 3 gpg, second only to Dallas I believe. If their shooting % is abnormally high there's a good chance we can expect a drop in scoring which obviously impacts goal differential.

 

[zeke]

points percentage is not just a good stat, but the ONLY proper way of looking at the standings.

 

[zeke]

I'll add you also have to consider scoring pace. They showed last night the leafs are scoring at over 3 gpg, second only to Dallas I believe. If their shooting % is abnormally high there's a good chance we can expect a drop in scoring which obviously impacts goal differential.

leafs have an 8.3sh%, 20th in the league.

League average is 9.0%.

they have a .916sv%, tied for 10th. league average is .914.

 

[gtforepro]

It's the NHL's loser point system. Keep it close as long as possible and sell tickets.

The Leafs are .500? So are 25 other teams. In a league of 30 teams, how in the hell are 26 teams above .500? If you ever needed proof as to the joke that is this Loser point system, that's it.

Real record is 16-22.

The goal differential is the main take away here. Highly correlated with success. It requires Bernier to continue playing at a pace above .960... but that, more than Corsi, is what will determine success.

Hate the "500" talk. As others have mentioned, it's a meaningless, and frankly ignorant stat. I always feel people who refer to a team that has a record like the Leafs as a 500 team, don't understand that the final number in 16-15-7 are all losses. So really we are 16-22. It's not like 84 points will get you in the playoffs. So "500" is a stupid thing to talk about.

I agree with Mess that looking at goal differential is a better indicator of future success. More often than not in the final standings, the teams with positive goal differential are in the playoffs, and the negative teams are out.

I agree with most that point percentage is a poor stat, especially with 3 point games. It's still a official NHL stat that represents something in the NHL. It's really the 3 point games that are stupid.

Saying that this team is not a .500 team is very wrong as it means something specific in the NHL; however, saying that the stat is stupid or meaningless is something most will probably agree with. The funny thing is that win percentage probably means less in the NHL then point percentage. In theory a team could go 46-36-0(92 points) and not make the playoffs while a team could go 11-0-71(93 points) and make the playoffs. yes it's all theory but it just shows that win % means very little in the NHL while we have 3 point games.

Was it not obvious I was referring to Goal Differential and not W/L? I'm well-aware they're 16 and 22.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Leafs have an even goal differential now.

 

[Mess]

I'm not disagreeing. Please reread my post which I edited to better reflect what I was trying to say. The edit is copied below for convenience.

Saying it was "possible" was probably understated. The intent was not to say it couldn't happen or would be unlikely even.

We are in full agreement.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I agree with most that point percentage is a poor stat, especially with 3 point games. It's still a official NHL stat that represents something in the NHL. It's really the 3 point games that are stupid.

Saying that this team is not a .500 team is very wrong as it means something specific in the NHL; however, saying that the stat is stupid or meaningless is something most will probably agree with. The funny thing is that win percentage probably means less in the NHL then point percentage. In theory a team could go 46-36-0(92 points) and not make the playoffs while a team could go 11-0-71(93 points) and make the playoffs. yes it's all theory but it just shows that win % means very little in the NHL while we have 3 point games.

point % isn't stupid. What's stupid is people hear .500 and assume that means average. For point % .500 is not average and people just need to get used to that.

Point % is useful in determining how many points a team is on pace to get, and since that's the NHL's basis for making the playoffs it's the most sensible thing to use. .500 just gets you to 82 points which is never good enough for playoffs.

OP was referring to goal differential anyway.

 

[Pookie]

Was it not obvious I was referring to Goal Differential and not W/L? I'm well-aware they're 16 and 22.

Obviously not

 

[keon]

Leafs have an even goal differential now.

I read an article (sorry no link) that stated Babcock put great value on the GF/GA being positive. That is an indication that the Power Play, Penalty Kill, offense, and defense are all working consistently good.

 

[Gallagbi]

Was it not obvious I was referring to Goal Differential and not W/L? I'm well-aware they're 16 and 22.

Should have been obvious to anyone reading the thread.... or really anyone who knows the team's record.

I prefer the stats page GF/GA rather than the standings because the stats page doesn't include SO goals. Doesn't make a difference to your point as they're still .500

 

[Gary Batman]

Goal differential is a good forecaster of future success.

Teams that are current ahead of Toronto by are double digit negative goal differential are more like to fall over time as giving up more goals then you score can only have one result as the sample size increases.

Even if the Leafs were to stand still, teams that are poor defensively and give up more goals then they score are going to naturally fall past the Leafs.

I used to think the same way, but I completely disagree with it.

In the years when Leafs uses to fall off the cliff, they had respectable goal differential, but that didn't indicate that they would start losing. Their possession stats did.

This year, when Habs had 9-0-0 start, their fans boasted of league best goal differential, that didn't predict that they would fall back, other factors did.

Goal differential, imo, simply tells what we already know. Can't help much with predicting future.