Leaf Draft Wars 2015: Who! Will! They! Pick!? - Part VII

[BigWilly]

For those talking about trading down..

2008
#4: Alex Pietroangelo
#7: Colin Wilson

2009
#4: Evander Kane
#7: Nazem Kadri

2010
#4: Ryan Johansen
#7: Jeff Skinner

2011
#4: Adam Larsson
#7: Mark Scheifle

2012
#4: Griffen Reinhart
#7: Matt Dumba

2013
#4: Seth Jones
#7: Darnell Nurse

2014
#4: Sam Bennet
#7: Haydn Fleury

For the most part (2009 and 2011 could be argued) the 4th selection is a significantly better prospect/player. Not saying this has anything to do with who will be the better player, interesting anyway though.

 

[BlueBaron]

Agreed. It's fine for fans to just think "well 4-7 are all going to be pretty good", but it's their job to say "well this guy is going to be the best of the group." Identify that guy and draft him. They may end up wrong, but it's still their job to figure that out and get it right. The top 5 isn't where you should be slipping around to add a second round pick or whatever.

I have to agree, if they snag a 2nd for a swap with Carolina I could see them doing it but not much else.

 

[BlueBaron]

For those talking about trading down.

2008
#4: Alex Pietroangelo
#7: Colin Wilson

2009
#4: Evander Kane
#7: Nazem Kadri

2010
#4: Ryan Johansen
#7: Jeff Skinner

2011
#4: Adam Larsson
#7: Mark Scheifle

2012
#4: Griffen Reinhart
#7: Matt Dumba

2013
#4: Seth Jones
#7: Darnell Nurse

2014
#4: Sam Bennet
#7: Haydn Fleury

For the most part (2009 and 2011 could be argued) the 4th selection is a significantly better prospect/player.

How do 4 and 5 compare ? Quite a bit better I suspect (though Luke Schenn hurts the average for 5)

 

[Stephen]

I do agree with you overall, the only thing I would say is maybe they don't want to show their hand to the public.

For me personally; they can say whatever they want to the media and etc. I definitely agree that when it comes to it, they better know who they want and who they project to be the best player and that it won't be good enough taking whoever is left over just to get extra 2nd or something (I like your example of Doughty and Bogosian since it was just ONE pick difference and it wasn't an easy call like the top 2 are this year).

Yeah I hope they are just blowing smoke, but in the war room they should have a strong opinion.

 

[BlueBaron]

I do agree with you overall, the only thing I would say is maybe they don't want to show their hand to the public.

For me personally; they can say whatever they want to the media and etc. I definitely agree that when it comes to it, they better know who they want and who they project to be the best player and that it won't be good enough taking whoever is left over just to get extra 2nd or something (I like your example of Doughty and Bogosian since it was just ONE pick difference and it wasn't as easy call like the top 2 are this year).

Yes but Petro went fourth and he and Doughty aren't that far apart.

 

[BigWilly]

How do 4 and 5 compare ? Quite a bit better I suspect (though Luke Schenn hurts the average for 5)

I don't really remember anyone ever trading up/down 1 slot? Do you have an example of this happening?

 

[Sonny21]

Yeah I hope they are just blowing smoke, but in the war room they should have a strong opinion.

Agreed.

 

[Sonny21]

Yes but Petro went fourth and he and Doughty aren't that far apart.

Respectfully I disagree, I like Petro a lot, but Doughty is different tier IMO.

 

[Daisy Jane]

we're full boys
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1907655

 

[BlueBaron]

I don't really remember anyone ever trading up/down 1 slot? Do you have an example of this happening?

No, closest I could find was Florida trading from 3 to 1 twice in a row. I only mention it because of the talk of trading down with Carolina.

 

[BlueBaron]

Respectfully I disagree, I like Petro a lot, but Doughty is different tier IMO.

I'm sure you can agree he is better than Bogosian.

 

[BigWilly]

No, closest I could find was Florida trading from 3 to 1 twice in a row. I only mention it because of the talk of trading down with Carolina.

Yeah I don't really think it would happen. Why would Carolina do this if they know the Leafs are going to take a certain player anyway?

 

[BlueBaron]

Yeah I don't really think it would happen. Why would Carolina do this if they know the Leafs are going to take a certain player anyway?

Do you have reason to believe Carolina does know who we want ?

 

[Sonny21]

I'm sure you can agree he is better than Bogosian.

That I can do. But the point still stands, there was a debate who the Kings would take, and it wasn't close to the top 2 this year.

I think to Stephen's point, the difference between a Doughty and Bogosian selection or for that matter Petro is so key and good teams make the right call most of the time.

It's the management/scouting job to get it right, so if they trade down just to get an extra 2nd, they better be damn sure in their decision and none of this 4-7 or whatever is interchangeable stuff.

 

[MetalJamesK]

Does anyone know the start time for the draft? I cannot find it anywhere...

 

[MetalJamesK]

Nvm I found out the time. 7pm ET. Looks like I wont have to book work off.

http://www.thebbtcenter.com/events/detail/2015-nhl-draft

 

[desperateblue]

No way they should move down.
If anything give carolina whatever they want and get 5 outright.
If possible id go after every single first i could get.
This yr i think a few teams are open to moving their picks.
Last seasons leafs werent very good and if any of the current team could be moved for a 1st or 2nd they should be.
Marner, provo, barzal/crouse the fans would go nuts. Sell a buttpile of new jerseys

 

[dimi78]

We can't walk away from this draft with an okay player, especially if we're trading out of a position to pick the best one.

I wonder how much of this thinking stems from them drafting Nylander and passing up on the Blues picks, which ended up being Fabbri, Barbashev and Letunov last year?

In any case, the extra picks have to come from unloading our roster players, not getting too crazy with high picks.

To understand how the trade down scenario works you have to understand how the draft in it's entirely works . All the teams go to the draft with a draft list ranking all players from #1 to the very last pick in the draft. As picks get selected they cross out that player from there list and once at there pick they chose the player they have ranked higher not nescacarly who is ranked at that slot. All teams do this and trust there list 100%. They put in a lot of long hours to construct these list so that there's no debating and 2nd guessing on who to pick not to mention there's no time on the draft floor for that.

Trade down will entirely depend on who the Leafs have identified at who they will chose at 4 and if they could trade down and still get that guy while adding assets. That's the purpose of the trade down and this is a draft where the odds are high for that to happen because from 3 down as far as the early teens opinions vary on these prospects as it's a deep draft on natural talented kids with high upside but the catch all of them except McDavid and Eichell have 2-3 years of development to truly gage just how high the upside is which is why there's going to be different list within that glut of players. This is why you got the comment Dubas gave which isn't different than what Hunter or PHX Don Moloney said and talked about a trade down scenario from #3.

If they do trade down the guy they pick is the guy they would have taken if they stand pat and picked at 4 the only difference they add assets with him do to the trade down.

We don't have the Leafs list nor do we know of any other teams list other than McDavid at 1 and Eichell at 2 the rest have your ready because there's going to be more than 1 surprise pick of a player going higher or lower that the arm chair GM's on here won't see happening..