Speculation: Last 31 games, how can we finish?

[MattMartin]

Here are the remaining games and I will use a 1-5 scale to determine strength of opponent, 5 being the hardest.



FEBRUARY OPPONENT
Sat, Feb 7 @ Boston 7:00 PM 5 LOSS
Sun, Feb 8 @ Buffalo 5:00 PM 1 WIN
Tue, Feb 10 vs Edmonton 7:00 PM 1 WIN
Thu, Feb 12 vs Toronto 7:00 PM 2 WIN
Sat, Feb 14 vs Columbus 7:00 PM 2 WIN
Mon, Feb 16 vs NY Rangers 7:00 PM 5 LOSS
Tue, Feb 17 @ Carolina 7:00 PM 1 WIN
Thu, Feb 19 vs Nashville 7:00 PM 5 WIN
Sat, Feb 21 @ Washington 12:30 PM 4 SO LOSS
Sun, Feb 22 vs Vancouver 6:00 PM 3 LOSS
Tue, Feb 24 vs Arizona 7:00 PM 1 WIN
Fri, Feb 27 vs Calgary 7:00 PM 3 WIN
Sat, Feb 28 vs Carolina 5:00 PM 1 LOSS

MARCH OPPONENT
Tue, Mar 3 @ Dallas 8:30 PM 2 OT LOSS
Thu, Mar 5 @ Nashville 8:00 PM 5 WIN
Sat, Mar 7 @ Florida 7:00 PM 2 OT LOSS
Mon, Mar 9 @ Toronto 7:30 PM 2 WIN
Tue, Mar 10 vs NY Rangers 7:00 PM 5 LOSS
Fri, Mar 13 vs Ottawa 7:00 PM 2 LOSS
Sat, Mar 14 vs Montreal 7:00 PM 5 LOSS
Tue, Mar 17 @ Chicago 8:30 PM 5 LOSS
Sat, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:00 PM 2 WIN
Tue, Mar 24 vs Minnesota 7:00 PM 3 SO LOSS
Thu, Mar 26 vs Los Angeles 7:00 PM 4 LOSS
Sat, Mar 28 vs Anaheim 1:00 PM 5 LOSS
Sun, Mar 29 vs Detroit 5:00 PM 4 WIN

APRIL OPPONENT
Thu, Apr 2 @ Columbus 7:00 PM 2
Sat, Apr 4 vs Buffalo 7:00 PM 1
Tue, Apr 7 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM 2
Fri, Apr 10 @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM 5
Sat, Apr 11 vs Columbus 7:00 PM 2

Very winnable games (1 and 2's):
Buffalo 2xs (now 1), Carolina, Toronto 2xs, Columbus 3xs (now 2xs)Edmonton, Philadelphia, Arizona, Dallas, Ottawa, Florida, and New Jersey (16 games).
Hopefully we can go 11-4-1 (23 points)
So far 8-2-2 (18 points)

50/50 games ( 3's )
Minnesota Calgary, and Vancouver (3 games)
Hopefully we can go 2-1 (4 points)
Finished at 1-1-1 (3 points)

Very tough games (4 and 5's)
Rangers 2xs , Nashville 2xs, Detroit, Anaheim, Kings, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Montreal, Washington, and Boston (12 games)
Hopefully we can go 4-7-1 (9 points)
So far 3-7-1 (9 points)

17-12-2 would give us 36 points and 103 for the season.
So far 12-10-4 (28 points)

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

Thanks for putting this together!

Your ranking system is pretty accurate, though I'd probably have Dallas as a 3.

Barring any significant injuries, these predictions are very realistic and attainable, especially when considering the number of home games we'll be playing and our strength at the barn.

I don't think any of us anticipated prior to the season or the Boych-Leddy acquisition(s) that we would finish in the ballpark of ~103 points. Now I know these games are yet to be played, but it dosen't seem far fetched.

Chances are we could drop a game or two to the weaker teams and win an extra game or two vs. the stronger opponents, but essentially it balances out (in terms of total points acquired). Of course, for home ice advantage it's in our best interest to steal points from conference rivals who are also in contention. As bizarre as that may be, I'd rather lose to the Sabres than the Rangers or Penguins.

After this 3 game skid and knowing what the team is capable of. I think most people here would be disappointed if we played at a .500 level for the rest of the regular season. Regardless, going from being a last placed team in the division with 79 points to a ~100+ Point team is a great accomplishment in one season.

 

[1calledsteve]

To me the opponents matter, but more importantly where and when those games take place. I kind of separate the season into to 2 sections for the rest of the year. Before the March 2nd TDL and after.

Including Saturday's game against Boston, the Islanders have 9 home games and only 4 road games before the TDL.

Those road games are all local (Carolina is the longest trip) and only one set of back to back road games (This weekend Boston and Buffalo).

The 9 home games are two 4 game home stands with only 1 set of back to back games (Calgary and Carolina) Among those 9 games, only 1 is against an eastern conference opponent who is currently in play off contention (Rangers).

Of those 13 games over the next 3.5 weeks, 8 are against teams outside play off contention.

I think between now and the TDL the Islanders have a huge advantage over teams battling around them in the standings and chance to really increase their division lead and find their stride just before teams load up at the TDL and make the final playoff push over the final 15 or so games.

 

[IceAce]

think you need to bump the Caps up to a 4. Other than that this looks feasible

 

[gadiamon72]

February is loaded with winnable games. We should be able to get at least 9 wins there. As for March, I'll be happy with 7 wins and figure 3 wins in April. That would give us 105 points. We can even add another win in February, 2 more in March and 1 more in April if they are able to play their best hockey consistently. This brings us to 113. That may be optimistic, but not unrealistic.

 

[Bones45]

Finish however and wherever you like, just don't line up with the Rangers in the first round.

 

[gadiamon72]

Finish however and wherever you like, just don't line up with the Rangers in the first round.

Agreed!

 

[13th Floor]

Finish however and wherever you like, just don't line up with the Rangers in the first round.

Why? We are 3-0 against them this year. We are bad against big teams -- Washington and Boston. And we are also not that great against the Atlantic. 7-7-1 vs Atlantic and 17-2-0 vs the Metro.

The way it's shaping up -- Pittsburgh or NYR are our best bet.

 

[crasherino]

February is loaded with winnable games. We should be able to get at least 9 wins there. As for March, I'll be happy with 7 wins and figure 3 wins in April. That would give us 105 points. We can even add another win in February, 2 more in March and 1 more in April if they are able to play their best hockey consistently. This brings us to 113. That may be optimistic, but not unrealistic.

They may be winnable but there are also a lot of them. There is no more than 1 day off between any game and there are 3 back to backs in the next 3 weeks. We are going to need to have CJ play a good deal.

At least the travel schedule works in our favor as the farthest they travel is down to Carolina after a home game against the Rags. But Feb 16th - 22nd is 5 games in 7 days. That's a lot of hockey.

 

[Wedregast]

Very winnable games (1 and 2's):
Buffalo 2xs, Carolina 2xs, Toronto 2xs, Columbus 3xs Edmonton, Philadelphia, Arizona, Dallas, Ottawa, Florida, and New Jersey (16 games).
Hopefully we can go 11-4-1 (23 points)

50/50 games ( 3's )
Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver, and Washington (4 games)
Hopefully we can go 2-2 (4 points)

Very tough games (4 and 5's)
Rangers 2xs, Nashville 2xs, Detroit, Anaheim, Kings, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Montreal, and Boston (11 games)
Hopefully we can go 4-6-1 (9 points)

17-12-2 would give us 36 points and 103 for the season.

Thoughts?

Before Okposo's injury I'd have said 103 points to finish the season would be bit conservative, and would expect closer to 110. Now I'd say 103 sounds about right.

 

[bstash19]

Why? We are 3-0 against them this year. We are bad against big teams -- Washington and Boston. And we are also not that great against the Atlantic. 7-7-1 vs Atlantic and 17-2-0 vs the Metro.

The way it's shaping up -- Pittsburgh or NYR are our best bet.

as much as i want to send them home in the first round, i want the team to play someone else the opening round, that way the crowd is as loud as it can be. with the islanders playing the rangers, at least 30% of the coliseum will be rangers fans, and the cost of tickets will be double that of another opponent.

 

[Nyifan12]

I predict a 10-18-3 (23 additional points for a total of 90). 3rd in Division behind PIT & WSH. Many games vs Western opponents - we have not played the west well at all. Hopefully a 14-14-3 could happen.

 

[frankieboy]

I predict a 10-18-3 (23 additional points for a total of 90). 3rd in Division behind PIT & WSH. Many games vs Western opponents - we have not played the west well at all. Hopefully a 14-14-3 could happen.

We have talked and posted back and forth about your negative predictions, but this one is about the most negative post I have seen from you. I recognize we just came off of another three game losing streak, but have some faith. Tavares has not even really played to his full potential this season. Okie is out. OK. Grabovski is picking it up, which is encouraging. Lee has played well most of the season, and has been picking up his goal scoring. Halak has, for the most part aside from a few games, played well. Our back up sucks. Predicting a .500 finish would be negative and, in my opinion, a bit too harsh. You have us finishing well below .500 the rest of the way. I think you are WAY off. I don't think 90 points will get us in the playoffs so I guess you are predicting we collapse and fall from first in the metro to out of the playoffs. Possible...but probably not a reasonable prediction in my opinion.

If you were a Rangers fan, given that Hank is out for an extended period of time, what would you predict for them? I'd love to hear that.

 

[PK Cronin]

I predict a 10-18-3 (23 additional points for a total of 90). 3rd in Division behind PIT & WSH. Many games vs Western opponents - we have not played the west well at all. Hopefully a 14-14-3 could happen.

You're always good for comedic relief. A team that has nearly twice as many wins than losses is going to drop off the face of the earth and go -11 the rest of the way? While not playing exceptionally well against the West, they still have a positive record.

 

[Space Herpe]

31-0

It is that simple.

Never go into a game thinking it isn't a sure win.

 

[scott99]

Here are the remaining games and I will use a 1-5 scale to determine strength of opponent, 5 being the hardest.



FEBRUARY OPPONENT
Sat, Feb 7 @ Boston 7:00 PM 5
Sun, Feb 8 @ Buffalo 5:00 PM 1
Tue, Feb 10 vs Edmonton 7:00 PM 1
Thu, Feb 12 vs Toronto 7:00 PM 2
Sat, Feb 14 vs Columbus 7:00 PM 2
Mon, Feb 16 vs NY Rangers 7:00 PM 5
Tue, Feb 17 @ Carolina 7:00 PM 1
Thu, Feb 19 vs Nashville 7:00 PM 5
Sat, Feb 21 @ Washington 12:30 PM 3
Sun, Feb 22 vs Vancouver 6:00 PM 3
Tue, Feb 24 vs Arizona 7:00 PM 1
Fri, Feb 27 vs Calgary 7:00 PM 3
Sat, Feb 28 vs Carolina 5:00 PM 1

MARCH OPPONENT
Tue, Mar 3 @ Dallas 8:30 PM 2
Thu, Mar 5 @ Nashville 8:00 PM 5
Sat, Mar 7 @ Florida 7:00 PM 2
Mon, Mar 9 @ Toronto 7:30 PM 2
Tue, Mar 10 vs NY Rangers 7:00 PM 5
Fri, Mar 13 vs Ottawa 7:00 PM 2
Sat, Mar 14 vs Montreal 7:00 PM 5
Tue, Mar 17 @ Chicago 8:30 PM 5
Sat, Mar 21 @ New Jersey 7:00 PM 2
Tue, Mar 24 vs Minnesota 7:00 PM 3
Thu, Mar 26 vs Los Angeles 7:00 PM 4
Sat, Mar 28 vs Anaheim 1:00 PM 5
Sun, Mar 29 vs Detroit 5:00 PM 4

APRIL OPPONENT
Thu, Apr 2 @ Columbus 7:00 PM 2
Sat, Apr 4 vs Buffalo 7:00 PM 1
Tue, Apr 7 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM 2
Fri, Apr 10 @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM 5
Sat, Apr 11 vs Columbus 7:00 PM 2

Very winnable games (1 and 2's):
Buffalo 2xs, Carolina 2xs, Toronto 2xs, Columbus 3xs Edmonton, Philadelphia, Arizona, Dallas, Ottawa, Florida, and New Jersey (16 games).
Hopefully we can go 11-4-1 (23 points)

50/50 games ( 3's )
Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver, and Washington (4 games)
Hopefully we can go 2-2 (4 points)

Very tough games (4 and 5's)
Rangers 2xs, Nashville 2xs, Detroit, Anaheim, Kings, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Montreal, and Boston (11 games)
Hopefully we can go 4-6-1 (9 points)

17-12-2 would give us 36 points and 103 for the season.

Thoughts?

Where do I sign up for 17-12-2 and 103 points ? I'd be beyond thrilled if we can do that. I expect something like 14-14-3, though I wouldn't be shocked by 10-15-6.

 

[MattMartin]

Where do I sign up for 17-12-2 and 103 points ? I'd be beyond thrilled if we can do that. I expect something like 14-14-3, though I wouldn't be shocked by 10-15-6.

Scooter, 10-15-6 will probably not got us into the playoffs. 14-14-3 98% chance we will. Also if we lost every tough game you would have to think that somehow we can manage to win a bunch of these games. 16 games against teams that we should at worst get 9-10 wins out of alone.

Very winnable games (1 and 2's):
Buffalo 2xs, Carolina 2xs, Toronto 2xs, Columbus 3xs Edmonton, Philadelphia, Arizona, Dallas, Ottawa, Florida, and New Jersey (16 games).
Hopefully we can go 11-4-1 (23 points)

 

[Nyifan12]

You're always good for comedic relief. A team that has nearly twice as many wins than losses is going to drop off the face of the earth and go -11 the rest of the way? While not playing exceptionally well against the West, they still have a positive record.

Have you watched this team recently? Since the break they have not played well and its only going to get tougher beginning next week.

 

[Nuch3232]

Have you watched this team recently? Since the break they have not played well and its only going to get tougher beginning next week.

EDM, TOR, CBJ next week before the Rangers. Three winnable games.

In the next 12 games, 5 are vs. playoff teams, with four of them at home.

9-8-0 vs the West. Looks like a winning record to me.

 

[lacunacoil777]

I really don't think the opponent matters. If Halek And Tavares don't get injured the Isles make the playoffs. If either get injured for more then a month they likely don't make the playoffs. I expect them to play about %500 if Tavares and Halek don't get injured. They just lost two of the last three by one goal and I expect them to have some more games falling on the losing end of the one goal games not counting empty netters. The worst penalty kill in the league thing scares me the most more then Okipos' injury.

 

[MattMartin]

Original post has been updated after every game and we are sort of right on track of where I figured we would be (maybe a tad behind).

 

[MattMartin]

Looks like 5-3 with this remaining schedule...

Thu, Mar 26 vs Los Angeles 7:00 PM 4
Sat, Mar 28 vs Anaheim 1:00 PM 5
Sun, Mar 29 vs Detroit 5:00 PM 4

APRIL OPPONENT
Thu, Apr 2 @ Columbus 7:00 PM 2
Sat, Apr 4 vs Buffalo 7:00 PM 1
Tue, Apr 7 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM 2
Fri, Apr 10 @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM 5
Sat, Apr 11 vs Columbus 7:00 PM 2

 

[And You Feel Shame]

Unfortunately 3-5 also seems possible.

April's matchups in general look good for building some confidence and chemistry moving towards the playoffs.

A win tonight would be a nice start to this stretch, as these next three matchups all look dubious with how the team has been playing. But the benefit of that is that a win against any of these - especially scoring a few goals - would go a long way towards getting this ship moving back in the right direction.

 

[scott99]

Looks like 5-3 with this remaining schedule...

Thu, Mar 26 vs Los Angeles 7:00 PM 4
Sat, Mar 28 vs Anaheim 1:00 PM 5
Sun, Mar 29 vs Detroit 5:00 PM 4

APRIL OPPONENT
Thu, Apr 2 @ Columbus 7:00 PM 2
Sat, Apr 4 vs Buffalo 7:00 PM 1
Tue, Apr 7 @ Philadelphia 7:00 PM 2
Fri, Apr 10 @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM 5
Sat, Apr 11 vs Columbus 7:00 PM 2

I see us going 4-4, I think we lose the next 3, in very close games. 2-1, 3-2 type games, and I think we lose to Pitt on April 10th.

 

[PK Cronin]

I see us going 4-4, I think we lose the next 3, in very close games. 2-1, 3-2 type games, and I think we lose to Pitt on April 10th.

No, no. You said we weren't going to win 3 or more games! Remember when I offered you $100 bet? You flip flopper you!