Kucherov is once again pacing for 128 points this season - will he surpass 128+ points this season?

[bobholly39]

With all the excitement of McDavid + Drai, and a few new emerging stars like Tage Thompson or Robertson, I feel as though Kucherov hasn't gotten a ton of attention this season.

Back in 2018-2019, he put forth a season for the ages. 128 points, swept all the big awards (Ross/Hart/Lindsay), and scored more points than any player had since Mario Lemieux had 160 in 1996. Highest point total of the cap era. Probably in the running for best season of the cap era, a truly great season.

As we all know, although he's done fantastic in 3 consecutive playoff runs since, he's also mostly been injured in the regular season since. He's missed big chunks of most seasons. So it was always a little difficult to place his 128 point season historically - was it a one time fluke, "perfect storm" he could never get close to again? Was it repeatable? Could he somehow do even better? Hard to say when he hasn't played a full season since.

Well - he's 4th in league scoring as of today with 47 points in 30 games, which paces out exactly to 128 points. He's 3rd in ppg behind McDrai. I think most obviously expect McDavid to win the art ross - but can he sustain that incredible ~150+ pace? Will he go back down to earth and finish closer to ~130? At ~130, it seems it's within reach of someone like Kucherov.

So ignoring McDavid, how many points do you expect Kucherov to finish with this season?

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[MOGlLNY]

sure

 

[FrankSidebottom]

Sky is the limit if he stays healthy.

 

[Sky04]

Doubt it, Tampa is on cruise control in the RS

 

[authentic]

I do not believe so. Likely around 110 or so.

 

[centipede2233]

I’d bet no for the injury factor.

 

[Dust]

Talent wise if healthy, absolutely. I don't think he plays 82 games though.

 

[Regal]

I don’t think so, probably 115-120ish, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pass it. Though it just shows that the season wasn’t as special as people made it out to be, it was just a sign of increasing league scoring

 

[Sky04]

I don’t think so, probably 115-120ish, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pass it. Though it just shows that the season wasn’t as special as people made it out to be, it was just a sign of increasing league scoring

Still beat out a healthy Connor McDavid in scoring, only 1 of 2 players in the last 8 years so yes it was impressive.

 

[Regal]

Still beat out a healthy Connor McDavid in scoring, only 1 of 2 players in the last 8 years so yes it was impressive.

It was impressive obviously, just the “highest scoring season since Lemieux” was a bit oversold.

 

[Sky04]

It was impressive obviously, just the “highest scoring season since Lemieux” was a bit oversold.

I mean it was and still is..... is Thornton's less impressive because that happened during a massive scoring increase as well? no.

They played a full season last year and no one including McDavid broke 128 either, in an even higher scoring season than 2019.

 

[Regal]

I mean it was and still is..... is Thornton's less impressive because that happened during a massive scoring increase as well? no.

They played a full season last year and no one including McDavid broke 128 either, in an even higher scoring season than 2019.

I mean if you’re asking if Thornton’s 125 points is less impressive since it came in ‘06 than if it came in ‘14, then the answer is obviously yes. You seem to be confusing putting a season in context with dismissing it as unimpressive. Kucherov’s season was a large jump from any recent Art Ross at the time, and caused a lot of people to think it was much better than them, but since then the scoring leader has been close in pace each year, which doesn’t make it not a great season, but does make it clear it wasn’t a massive outlier. It didn’t stand out any more than Kane’s ‘16 for instance, despite the 22 point difference

 

[Sky04]

I mean if you’re asking if Thornton’s 125 points is less impressive since it came in ‘06 than if it came in ‘14, then the answer is obviously yes. You seem to be confusing putting a season in context with dismissing it as unimpressive. Kucherov’s season was a large jump from any recent Art Ross at the time, and caused a lot of people to think it was much better than them, but since then the scoring leader has been close in pace each year, which doesn’t make it not a great season, but does make it clear it wasn’t the massive outlier some made out to be.

That jump was already made in 2018 when the league scoring jumped a whole 0.2GPG, increased scoring was already evident for 2 years by the time Kucherov won that Ross, you must be remembering a small group of people saying that because the scoring separation was already created a year before. It's not like anyone thought Kucherov was playing in the same environment as Kane in 2016, like how no one compares Thornton's 2005 Ross to MSL's 2004 one because the scoring environment had already drastically changed.

 

[KCC]

Still beat out a healthy Connor McDavid in scoring, only 1 of 2 players in the last 8 years so yes it was impressive.

I mean, he was entering his prime at that time and he (just like Tampa) had "one of those seasons". It basically took some insane year that he and the team will never match again to beat McDavid. And keep in mind Connor was only 21 at the time and still put up 116 points (also missed 4 games).

When Kucherov was 21 he put up 18 points and really only started to amp it up in his 4th year. Not trying to discredit him though as that's not my intent. Just trying to play devil's advocate for fun. Hell of a player and he deserved it that year. It was a nuts run he and Tampa had.

 

[Sky04]

I mean, he was entering his prime at that time and he (just like Tampa) had "one of those seasons". It basically took some insane year that he and the team will never match again to beat McDavid. And keep in mind Connor was only 21 at the time and still put up 116 points (also missed 4 games).

When Kucherov was 21 he put up 18 points and really only started to amp it up in his 4th year. Not trying to discredit him though as that's not my intent. Just trying to play devil's advocate for fun. Hell of a player and he deserved it that year. It was a nuts run he and Tampa had.

It's not like being 21 in an excuse when he won the Ross at 19 and 20....

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

He’s still a piece of shit.

 

[JoVel]

He’s still a piece of shit.

I need someone to remind me what Kucherov even did to the Sabres that has their fans hating him so much, because I honestly can't remember. Or are they just mad he's more accomplished than the entire Sabres franchise?

 

[MrOT]

Scoring is up so he should be able to do that

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

I need someone to remind me what Kucherov even did to the Sabres that has their fans hating him so much, because I honestly can't remember. Or are they just mad he's more accomplished than the entire Sabres franchise?

Come on dude, for a star he’s got a dirty side to him- doesn’t fight, doesn’t hit clean, just does dirty shit on a somewhat regular basis. Just had a blatant frustration boarding against the leafs last night- where does my Sabres fandom factor in there? Just calling a spade a spade. He’s obviously very good, just could do without the Marchand-like tendencies.

If you want specifics for the Sabres, needlessly taking out Sobotka’s knee was dirty af. None of us liked Sobotka, but he pulled that crap and then pulled some crap the next game, if I remember correctly- just something we noticed because we actually know the game. But ur right, we’re just totally jealous, that’s it- for some reason it’s only him and not other accomplished stars.

 

[Nucker4Life]

Wait, Kucherov plays in the regular season now? I thought he gave that up years ago

 

[wetcoast]

Still beat out a healthy Connor McDavid in scoring, only 1 of 2 players in the last 8 years so yes it was impressive.

It was a "fluke year" based on his linemates shooting % and it was easy to predict that his production would drop and it has.

Scoring is up this year so adjusted he isn't even on pace for the 18-19 season.

18-19 adjusted is 128 points, this seasons pace is 120 and that's assuming things won't tighten up and history for both the NHL and Kucherov says that it will tighten up.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

It was a "fluke year" based on his linemates shooting % and it was easy to predict that his production would drop and it has.

Scoring is up this year so adjusted he isn't even on pace for the 18-19 season.

18-19 adjusted is 128 points, this seasons pace is 120 and that's assuming things won't tighten up and history for both the NHL and Kucherov says that it will tighten up.

Yeah but every star has an outlier season. Crosby's 120 pt season (10% above his 2nd best) and Ovechkin's 65 goals (16% above his 2nd best) for example

 

[Gurglesons]

If he's healthy I could see it.

 

[wetcoast]

Yeah but every star has an outlier season. Crosby's 120 pt season (10% above his 2nd best) and Ovechkin's 65 goals (16% above his 2nd best) for example

Fair point but I don't think either Ovi or Crosby had as big outlier seasons given shortened seasons and/or league scoring rates (different league environments..

 

[Mrb1p]

Yeah but every star has an outlier season. Crosby's 120 pt season (10% above his 2nd best) and Ovechkin's 65 goals (16% above his 2nd best) for example

Crosbys best seasons were cut short by a puck in the face, a lockout and a concussion.