Player Discussion Kaiden Guhle

[Naslundforever]

In that range yeah. The only way he’s getting 3,5M$ is if he signs a 2 years bridge deal and I don’t see it at all.

I was thinking bridge since a bunch of lhd are around the club.. 6 mil long term makes sense to me next year if he’s good

 

[Canadienna]

Not sure about the contract numbers people are throwing around. Luckily we have time before needing to extend him and next year will play a large role in determining that.

I also wouldn't let him off the hook entirely for the amount of time being injured. The best ability is availability. Easy to say what he paced for but his actual impact is still measured in actual results.

 

[TT1]

Unpopular opinion but Guhle might be our best trading chip this summer. With contract talk lurking and abundance of LHD in the pipeline, its Romanov situation all over again... except Guhle is better. If Hugo ever feels like Kaden might become injury prone, he should flip him this summer for and equivalent top 6 talent.

I also wonder if he's worth Suzuki money like many comparable out there.

imo it's Caufield (when factoring in value and replaceability, assuming guys like Catton/Demidov are available at our pick)

and talking about his next contract, i think they're gonna lock him up long term for around 6M~7M / 8 years

 

[ReHabs]

Have you even watched a game of his career ? He was worth more than that the second he laced them up. He's produced more than everyone else at 5v5 on this team. His 5 on 5 production is comparable to the likes of Seider, Heiskanen, McAvoy, Byram/Power, Pietrangelo, Carlsson and others. He outproduced guys like Sanderson and Lindholm who are pretty good comparable.

You're letting the hockeyDB stats get to you, what's next, Matheson is gonna be worth 10?

You refer to 5v5 scoring and then claim that I’m stat watching. Doesn’t add up.

The question is: what is Guhle worth to the Habs and as a contract. I don’t think a defender who hasn’t hit 30pts is going to command a lot in a contract negotiation — it means we can secure him for cheaper than his “potential”. All else being equal (ie When They’re good enough defensively) Defenders get paid when they put up points. If they don’t, they tend to max out below 6m. From memory I would say below 5m.

 

[ReHabs]

I disagree totally. But you are entitled to your own opinion. That being said, if is value is NOW at 4M$, as a 21 yo Dman, how can he possibly settles for a 4,5 ish long term contract 1 year later?

That's a very low estimate of his worth.

I'm sure he & his agent view his worth much higher, rightfully so.

In my mind, I preclude a 6-8 year deal because neither side would come to terms with the other (as far as I can tell). The Habs wouldn’t want to pay 2x his current value for the next 6-8 years on the chance he will develop into such a player, and Guhle wouldn’t want to commit to his present value when he could get much more before long.

Comparatively speaking, Suzuki and Caufield were closer to being worth their contracts at the time of signing than Guhle would be if he’s negotiating an extension this summer.

I got my wires mixed up when I said “long term” before, I meant 3-4ish years, ie not a two-year bridge.

 

[Hannibal]

2 concussions in 2 years in a row is much more concerning than Xhekaj’s status.

 

[rickthegoon]

2 concussions in 2 years in a row is much more concerning than Xhekaj’s status.

it is starting to be concerning; 50 missed games in his 2 first years for serious injuries is a lot.
Same goes for Dach ; missing 200 games in your 5 first seasons is alarming to say the least.
These kids have tremendous potential, but I have serious doubts about their capacity to make it through a long season and even more so to for the grind that is the playoffs.

 

[Miller Time]

In my mind, I preclude a 6-8 year deal because neither side would come to terms with the other (as far as I can tell). The Habs wouldn’t want to pay 2x his current value for the next 6-8 years on the chance he will develop into such a player, and Guhle wouldn’t want to commit to his present value when he could get much more before long.

Comparatively speaking, Suzuki and Caufield were closer to being worth their contracts at the time of signing than Guhle would be if he’s negotiating an extension this summer.

I got my wires mixed up when I said “long term” before, I meant 3-4ish years, ie not a two-year bridge.

Will be interesting to see where they land.

With Guhle & Slaf both up for new deal at same time, I could see the team trying to lock them both up with a deal similar to CC's. 6-8yrs at ~7.5M.

The core 4 of Suzuki, CC, Slaf & Guhle overlapping at ~30M$ for 5 years, with the cap hopefully continuing to rise, would set us up very well.

 

[Mrb1p]

You refer to 5v5 scoring and then claim that I’m stat watching. Doesn’t add up.

The question is: what is Guhle worth to the Habs and as a contract. I don’t think a defender who hasn’t hit 30pts is going to command a lot in a contract negotiation — it means we can secure him for cheaper than his “potential”. All else being equal (ie When They’re good enough defensively) Defenders get paid when they put up points. If they don’t, they tend to max out below 6m. From memory I would say below 5m.

5V5 points are the hardest of all points to come by, after 4v5s. And they're also the most important. By saying "He never had 30 points" you basically ignore that he hasn't played a second of PP in his career and that the difference between being what he is and a guy like Pietrangelo, Seider, Sanderson or others is exactly 10 or 15 points on the PP. Something almost every top 4 D could achieve.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

it is starting to be concerning; 50 missed games in his 2 first years for serious injuries is a lot.
Same goes for Dach ; missing 200 games in your 5 first seasons is alarming to say the least.
These kids have tremendous potential, but I have serious doubts about their capacity to make it through a long season and even more so to for the grind that is the playoffs.

"Availability is the best ability." - Bill Parcells.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

@Benstheman raises an interesting question. Should we deal for a RSD? That would allow Guhle to go back over to his left.

The other thing to consider is that it’s going to take a while before our own RDs are ready.

I don’t think moving Savard to 1st pairing makes sense. So either we leave MM there for next year (which is what I think happens) or we move him for an RD. But if we do that, then we’ve got Mailloux and RB on the way.

It’ll be an interesting off season.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

@Benstheman raises an interesting question. Should we deal for a RSD? That would allow Guhle to go back over to his left.

The other thing to consider is that it’s going to take a while before our own RDs are ready.

I don’t think moving Savard to 1st pairing makes sense. So either we leave MM there for next year (which is what I think happens) or we move him for an RD. But if we do that, then we’ve got Mailloux and RB on the way.

It’ll be an interesting off season.

Mailloux and RB may be further away than many here think or hope.

They may never arrive.

 

[ReHabs]

5V5 points are the hardest of all points to come by, after 4v5s. And they're also the most important. By saying "He never had 30 points" you basically ignore that he hasn't played a second of PP in his career and that the difference between being what he is and a guy like Pietrangelo, Seider, Sanderson or others is exactly 10 or 15 points on the PP. Something almost every top 4 D could achieve.

Do you know any top3 dman who is explicitly not given PP opportunities? It is the same as with any other young player who has potential but hasn’t reached it yet -- you shouldn't pay through the nose for something that hasn't occured. If Guhle had 15 more points he would be around 0.5ppg, which then opens up possibilities of longer and bigger contract commitments.

This isn’t a hockey debate because we both think he’s a good player with untapped potential — the disagreement is over how his contract should be approached. I don’t believe in committing to >2x his present value because (1) he actually has to become 2x as valuable something not easy to bank on and (2) even if he does reach 2x his present value, we don't know how long it'll take to get there.

I feel Caufield was overpaid on his contract but he was closer to his AAV than not. Suzuki was overpaid his first year and a bit but that was a gamble on a player who was, once again, closer to this AAV than not.

I'm really curious what comparisons there are for Guhle. I think he has to be bridged even if we all seem to hate the notion of a bridge contract.

 

[Mrb1p]

Do you know any top3 dman who is explicitly not given PP opportunities? It is the same as with any other young player who has potential but hasn’t reached it yet -- you shouldn't pay through the nose for something that hasn't occured. If Guhle had 15 more points he would be around 0.5ppg, which then opens up possibilities of longer and bigger contract commitments.

This isn’t a hockey debate because we both think he’s a good player with untapped potential — the disagreement is over how his contract should be approached. I don’t believe in committing to >2x his present value because (1) he actually has to become 2x as valuable something not easy to bank on and (2) even if he does reach 2x his present value, we don't know how long it'll take to get there.

I feel Caufield was overpaid on his contract but he was closer to his AAV than not. Suzuki was overpaid his first year and a bit but that was a gamble on a player who was, once again, closer to this AAV than not.

I'm really curious what comparisons there are for Guhle. I think he has to be bridged even if we all seem to hate the notion of a bridge contract.

yes there's dozens of them. It's not even that he can't play there, he clearly has the best overall offensive package of every D we have. I guess it's MSLs stupid way of protecting or managing his ice time.

Byram is an exact comparison and he got a 2 year 4 millions bridge. Injury concerns were a lot bigger with him though. Sanderson is pretty much in the same boat, only he was given PP opportunities from the get go. Guhle is much dlbetter defensively. Dobson was bridged at 4.

 

[ReHabs]

yes there's dozens of them. It's not even that he can't play there, he clearly has the best overall offensive package of every D we have. I guess it's MSLs stupid way of protecting or managing his ice time.

Byram is an exact comparison and he got a 2 year 4 millions bridge. Injury concerns were a lot bigger with him though. Sanderson is pretty much in the same boat, only he was given PP opportunities from the get go. Guhle is much dlbetter defensively. Dobson was bridged at 4.

So for a bridge deal (ie paying only a bit above Present Value) you'd think he's worth around 4m? That jives with my take very well, I said his Present Value is around 3.5m

 

[Mrb1p]

So for a bridge deal (ie paying only a bit above Present Value) you'd think he's worth around 4m? That jives with my take very well, I said his Present Value is around 3.5m

No, thats not his current value. His current value is probably around 6.5 +, 3.5-4.5 would be a bridge deal value.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

No, thats not his current value. His current value is probably around 6.5 +, 3.5-4.5 would be a bridge deal value.

Yeah if we could get him long term less than 7, that’s a win and is very doable. Health will probably play a role in those negotiations.

Hopefully he acquires the strength one way or another where injuries are less an issue

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Mailloux and RB may be further away than many here think or hope.

They may never arrive.

Not worried.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Do you know any top3 dman who is explicitly not given PP opportunities? It is the same as with any other young player who has potential but hasn’t reached it yet -- you shouldn't pay through the nose for something that hasn't occured. If Guhle had 15 more points he would be around 0.5ppg, which then opens up possibilities of longer and bigger contract commitments.

This isn’t a hockey debate because we both think he’s a good player with untapped potential — the disagreement is over how his contract should be approached. I don’t believe in committing to >2x his present value because (1) he actually has to become 2x as valuable something not easy to bank on and (2) even if he does reach 2x his present value, we don't know how long it'll take to get there.

I feel Caufield was overpaid on his contract but he was closer to his AAV than not. Suzuki was overpaid his first year and a bit but that was a gamble on a player who was, once again, closer to this AAV than not.

I'm really curious what comparisons there are for Guhle. I think he has to be bridged even if we all seem to hate the notion of a bridge contract.

Caufield came into this year as a 22 year old with 48 goals in his last 82 games. Those are elite numbers. There's absolutely no way he wasn't worth 8 mil a year. There's absolutely no way you get a 48 goal scorer (especially one who's 22) for less than that.

As for Guhle, my hope is we sign him for 7 mil x 8. He's 21 with first line responsibilities and projects to be a great blueliner. No he wouldn't be a number one elsewhere but that doesn't take away from the experience he's gotten this year. Twice he played incredibly well against McDavid for example and played against first lines for most of the year.

 

[Canadiens98]

A bridge deal seems to make the most sense. Maybe a similar deal to what we gave Dach due to the injury history.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Not worried.

I wish I shared your certainty.

 

[Canadienna]

So still not healthy?

I guess he really got scrambled. Would be a shame if that dirty hit is how his season ends.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

So still not healthy?

I guess he really got scrambled. Would be a shame if that dirty hit is how his season ends.

Probably precautionary- hopefully anyway.

Besides, it gives them a chance to play Mailloux and Hutson.

 

[Habs]

So still not healthy?

I guess he really got scrambled. Would be a shame if that dirty hit is how his season ends.

and no f***ing penalty, what a crock of shit. He gets a game for a love tap on the bench, that piece of shit doesn't even get a call for taking him out of the game and the season. I really hate the NHL some days

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

and no f***ing penalty, what a crock of shit. He gets a game for a love tap on the bench, that piece of shit doesn't even get a call for taking him out of the game and the season. I really hate the NHL some days

Kucherov's really going off lately. Elbowed Tom Wilson clean in the head, Didn't even get penalized. I think Wilson got 2 for embellishing which was crazy. It was pretty vicious. I mean Wilson's whatever but it was a pretty nasty one.