Has more upside than Josh Norris according to who? You? I guess it is too bad he had a "down year" in the most recent year we have, while playing in a Junior league. I'm not even going to argue who is better between Norris and Rubtsov because it is irrelevant. Wow, he was ranked only behind Matthews in 2-way play 2 years ago? That and 50 cents will get you a cup of coffee. A first round pick should be at least a point per game player in a Junior league at age 19.
A goalie whose floor is a serviceable backup? Wow, what a valuable asset. It's really hard to sign a free agent backup goalie for the league minimum. Oh wait, that is pretty much what all NHL teams end up doing every year. Why did he last until the 5th round if he is so great? Delusional.
An aging and declining stopgap 4/5? Maybe you haven't looked at the Flyers roster, because after Ghost and Provorov, you don't have anyone else that is better than Braun. Gudas? No. Hagg? No. Sanheim? Not yet.
This thread was started by a Flyers fan, so your snooty comment about how the Sharks would be lucky to get an offer from the Flyers is pretty obviously not true. Your post is just a typical "our players are better than yours because they are on our team" post. And no Sharks fan would be happy with a trade of Braun for a Melker clone +Bibeau clone +3rd, for exactly the reason I said. The Sharks are happy to keep Braun. They are contenders for the Cup and IMO Braun is probably the best bottom pairing defenseman in the league (since that is where he will be playing). As has been written in multiple places, the Sharks will probably use Braun with Vlasic as a shutdown pairing with leads late in games. I can't imagine the Sharks trading him for futures, and if they did it would be better prospects and picks than a lottery ticket, a 5th round pick and a 3rd round pick.
This will be a long post. A long one. People don’t have to read, but I suggest you do. First off- take a class or read a book about arguing. Very valuable tool in America. You must have a point as a retort in order for a debate. When you attack/go after someone... that is the smirky comment that people don’t like. Not trying to attack you personally, but that’s a piece of advice. It’ll help you out when you get in further debates. You’re not arguing a point. You’re just going after everything I said.
I am not one of those people who thinks flyers players are better because they’re on the flyers. Plenty of my other posts explicitly say that braun is way more valuable than what I am offering!!! We offer a low return because we will not pay a premium for a degraded asset. Simple as that. One would be quite idiotic to do so and to offer so. Please read back before you post. My offers are based off of Statistcal Packaging.
I make my trades based off of statistical inferencing. What I’m about to show you is not 100% conclusive of these contingencies. I switched up the regression because Sanheim was a rookie and that would either deflate some of Brauns valuation while significantly inflating Sanheim. This regression is non-adjusted for a same denomination /60. I did that so these starts aren’t inflated or deflated. I only used last year. If Braun had a really really bad year (worst of his career)... then you can just skip this.
This is generally something that is easy to do since I’m not adjusting for the /60. If I were to... well it would take a long time lol and I don’t have the patience for it.
Here is a valuation and I will explain it:
NonAdjustedValuation:
[(P.A.*60).1] + (OnIce.S * 100) + (DEF * 10)
P.A. —> P/60 + CF%(+/- 50) + RelCF%(+/- 0) + G+/- + xG+/- + iP+/-
OnIce.S —> [(TOI%QOT/60) + (TOI%QoC/60) + (CF%QoC/60)]
DEF—> iGVA + iTKA + iHF + iBLK + DZS% + NZS%
Travis Sanheim: 155.88 * .1 =15.59
Justin Braun: 129.42 * .1. = 12.94
This is a decent differential.
Very big thing here too. Sanheim offensive valuation is right around 100 and his defensive valuation is close to 50. Braun has a negative offensive value of approximately a massive -111 while his defensive valuation was an astounding +255.
2-way play is the biggest thing in the NHL right now and this shows why!
EDIT: as a further explanation. I love using same denomination as a comparison.... however this is not a comparison! This is a valuation. Just want to make that clear. I’m also not a fan of QOT/C metrics, but they do have some insight.
I don’t have the variables and their constants for each player... if you would like them just tell me. That takes too much time and, again, I don’t have the patience for that.
If you’re someone who understands what I did up there... you may think... THIS IS EXTREMELY UNFAIR TO BRAUN!
That’s a little true... it is. One aspect that is not there are HD/LD%S%. That’s a very big attribute for Defensive Dmen...
The marginality for this is a decent amount. For that... let’s say, again I didn’t adjust for this because of it deflating Braun, but let’s say there is an outstanding difference. Let say Braun stop play at 25% down on HighDamger Opportunites - something crazy like that and Sanheim is not good down low so we can equate his to a -2.5.
Those valuations would most likely be around:
Sanheim: 15.19
Braun: 15.49.
The difference in their valuation, but a generous example of play stopping ability at a HDO, causes a ~2% valuation in Brauns favor.
***Obviously there is a lot that goes into valuation... team needs being the most favorable factor. This isn’t contingent upon all factors, but it’s a depiction of value based on EVEN STRENGTH PLAY and their player attributes.
2-way play is the most valuable play in the NHL now and valuation somewhat depicts that.
This type of valuation was done for the
Rubtsov + Ersson + 2nd or 3rd which ever it was. Their values added up is like .20 lower than Braun. No one ever pays a premium for something they don’t need.
This doesn’t take very long to do at all. If you have any questions... message me privately so we don’t take up the board. Thank you for reading!