Just How Unlucky Were The Leafs? (Kessel Trade)

[TheThrill81*]

Seguin is 22 and has already had a more productive year then Kessel has ever had. The trade is not even in assests,

When Seguin has five 30+ goal seasons by the age of 26 and actually makes an impact in the post-season, then come back and spew that garbage.

 

[West]

It was basically Kubina out, Beauchemin and Komisarek in. On paper they were an improved team even before the Kessel deal.

Actually did a very quick comparison of rosters (top 18)

Added: Kessel, Bozak, Beauchemin, Gunnarsson, Stalberg, Phaneuf
Removed: Moore, Antropov, Kubina, Stralman, Mayers, Van Ryn

note: Komisarek was added but only played 34 games so didn't include in top 18.

Bozak and Beauchemin were a noticeable step down from Antropov and Kubina (-24 goals and -33pts) but Kessel makes up for that almost by himself with +18 goals and +14pts over Moore. Other players are more or less a wash.

note: Only looking at/for missing offense from previous year, comparing defensive is much longer and more involved conversation.

The real loss of points is Ponikarovsky, Grabovski and Blake were a combined -29 goals and -70pts from the previous year.

To a lesser extent Stajan, Hagman and Mitchell were a combined -7 goals and -29pts from the previous year.

Basically a third of the rosters offense decreased significantly. Previous post gives my opinion on why.

 

[JKG33]

The Leafs were incredibly unlucky. Most everyone on that roster played a lot worse than they should have, making a pick that should have been in the 7-14 range become number 2.

There was also something of an opportunity cost to acquiring Kessel. I think it can be agreed upon that if the Leafs have that same roster in 09/10 and 10/11 minus Kessel, they do even worse. So potentially they could've had their choice of Hall/Seguin in 2010, and possibly picked top 3 again to get Landeskog or Huberdeau in 2011.

But the worst part of the trade for Toronto was the one that didn't happen. Kaberle + 09 First (Kadri) for Kessel. This would've allowed them to have both Kessel and Seguin, the best possible outcome.

 

[terex]

I would like to point out their games lost to injury.

http://www.mangameslost.com/end-of-regular-season-nhl-man-games-lost-april-12-2010/

Toronto was 22nd in man games lost at the end of the 2009-2010 season, with 178. St. Louis was 28th with 127 games lost, and the Rangers were 30th with only 76 games lost to injury.

Blake missed 26 games due to injury.
Komisarek missed 48 games.
Grabovski missed 25 games.
Kessel missed 12 games.
Gunnarson missed 22 games.

That's 133 of the games lost. The team was relatively healthy for the duration of the year, but they did lose a decent amount of time to some key players (they knew Kessel would miss some time when he was acquired, I believe). They were also in a huge state of flux, with numerous roster players shipped out and acquired during the regular season.

http://www.mangameslost.com/end-of-regular-season-nhl-man-games-lost-april-11-2011/

Similarly, they were 21st in games lost for 2010-2011 with 184 games lost. For reference, Chicago was 27th with 144 games lost and Carolina was 30th with only (!) 65 games lost due to injury.

Phaneuf missed 16 games.
Giguere missed 18 games.
Armstrong missed 32 games.

Basically all of their other key guys played 70+ games, most playing 80+ or didn't miss many games while they were a Leaf during that season.

I don't think that they could have had much more luck with the injury bug. Their problems were poor (and constant) roster moves, coaching, and goaltending/defense. They could certainly have been worse if they dealt with more injuries. I don't know how they could have been much better than what they were on the ice with what they had assembled.

I think Toronto finished nearly the best that they could have hoped for during those two seasons. Essentially none of the players on their roster has left the team and significantly become a better player since those two seasons. They could have certainly been even worse through either injuries or by moving out roster players for future assets.

 

[Boreal01]

It was basically Kubina out, Beauchemin and Komisarek in. On paper they were an improved team even before the Kessel deal.

Gustavsson also signed on to replace Joseph as backup.

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Unlucky? Not at all. Their team on paper was terrible.

So what was their answer? Trade futures for a winger.

You build teams from the wings in.

 

[supsens]

When Seguin has five 30+ goal seasons by the age of 26 and actually makes an impact in the post-season, then come back and spew that garbage.

Seguin has bested Phils best year, sorry it's not garbage. And if you wanna talk playoffs, one of them has a cup... The other ya wow it's great he scored 30 goals without a ever having to set foot in his own end...

 

[Johnny Engine]

What if:

You took the 2008-2009 GVT numbers for Komisarek and Kessel, Beauchemin's 2007-2008 GVT (because he missed most of '09), and added that to the 18 best returning Leaf skaters*, while assigning Gustavsson a GVT of 0 (which would be an improvement on Cujo and Pogge), and maintaining Toskala's total. You could arrive at a rough expected GVT for the whole team, which would undoubtably peg them as much better than 2009-10's disaster season.
You could then calculate how likely it was for the Leafs to underperform as badly as they did.

For the second season, you could do the same thing under the premise that their roster either stays the same, or doesn't get any better or worse.
I don't have those numbers on hand, but if someone wants to step in I'd be interested to see it.

Is there a way to refine that approach?

* You could also add in Orr, but he certainly wouldn't be any better than replacement level.

 

[TOML]

The timing of the trade was awful and everyone knew it. If they pulled a similar trade now, a little further along the rebuild process and into their next push, it would have made a lot more sense.

-Sundin was gone, leaving the team with no franchise player.
-Various other vets were on the way out, making the team very inexperienced.
-They were paper-thin up the middle and Kessel's a scoring winger.
-There was only one capabable vet d-man on the team.
-Their goaltending was far from solid.
-They were just starting the rebuilding process.
-There was no reason to be solid on Kadri being a franchise centerman.
-There was no reason to expect Schenn to be a franchise defenseman.

Bottom line there was no reason to perform the Kessel trade at that time. Esp. with their division rival.

The Phaneuf trade made a lot more sense to perform at the time.

 

[MN_Gopher]

When you factor in the draft pick. It was a great trade for the leafs.

You cannot Monday QB it and go by what Seguin did.

If there is no Kessel trade lots of things could happen, Butterfly effect, maybe some other teams wins the lotto and Toronto picks 3rd or worse. Maybe they take Seguin and gets injured and never plays a game.


Would you rather have Gudbranson, Nino, an injured Seguin or Connoly over Kessel?

Then the treads would be why didn't Toronto pull the trigger.

 

[RandV]

The timing of the trade was awful and everyone knew it. If they pulled a similar trade now, a little further along the rebuild process and into their next push, it would have made a lot more sense.

-Sundin was gone, leaving the team with no franchise player.
-Various other vets were on the way out, making the team very inexperienced.
-They were paper-thin up the middle and Kessel's a scoring winger.
-There was only one capabable vet d-man on the team.
-Their goaltending was far from solid.
-They were just starting the rebuilding process.
-There was no reason to be solid on Kadri being a franchise centerman.
-There was no reason to expect Schenn to be a franchise defenseman.

Bottom line there was no reason to perform the Kessel trade at that time. Esp. with their division rival.

The Phaneuf trade made a lot more sense to perform at the time.

Also worth pointing out that the Bruins were backed into a corner and could have been forced to take a weaker package, but Burke with all his bluster wouldn't play the offer sheet card. Offersheet compensation would have been a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd I believe? Instead he gave them a 1st, 2nd, and a 1st.

Though to be fair I always thought his playing nice with Boston helped them get a sweet deal for Kaberle to make up for it a bit. Well that's what I always thought, but I just had the thought of how well did that 'awesome Kaberle trade' that Leaf fans liked to wave around at the time work out in the long run... I don't mean this post to be bashing the Leafs but ouch

Tomas Kaberle
2011-Feb-18 Traded from Toronto Maple Leafs to Boston Bruins for Joe Colborne, round 1 pick in the 2011 draft and round 2 pick in the 2012 draft

Joe Colborne - traded to Calgary for 4th round pick
2011 round 1 pick - 30th overall pick, traded with their 2nd 39th overall to Anaheim for 22nd overall. Leafs select Tyler Biggs, Ducks select Rickard Rakell and John Gibson
2012 round 2 pick - traded to Colorado for JM Liles

 

[Jacob8hockey*]

Also worth pointing out that the Bruins were backed into a corner and could have been forced to take a weaker package, but Burke with all his bluster wouldn't play the offer sheet card. Offersheet compensation would have been a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd I believe? Instead he gave them a 1st, 2nd, and a 1st.

Though to be fair I always thought his playing nice with Boston helped them get a sweet deal for Kaberle to make up for it a bit. Well that's what I always thought, but I just had the thought of how well did that 'awesome Kaberle trade' that Leaf fans liked to wave around at the time work out in the long run... I don't mean this post to be bashing the Leafs but ouch

Tomas Kaberle
2011-Feb-18 Traded from Toronto Maple Leafs to Boston Bruins for Joe Colborne, round 1 pick in the 2011 draft and round 2 pick in the 2012 draft

Joe Colborne - traded to Calgary for 4th round pick
2011 round 1 pick - 30th overall pick, traded with their 2nd 39th overall to Anaheim for 22nd overall. Leafs select Tyler Biggs, Ducks select Rickard Rakell and John Gibson
2012 round 2 pick - traded to Colorado for JM Liles

The sad thing was that it was and still is a solid return for Kaberle just very poor asset management after it

Colborne looks like he will be an ideal bottom 6 center right now. I'd still say he has the potential to be a 2nd line center if he puts it all together. The Leafs were put in a bad spot but atleast we got something for him.

The 4th that we got from that deal ended up going to St Louis in a deal which many felt the added 4th was complete unnecessary from Toronto POV.

The Biggs trade was somewhat questionable at the time but he looks to be busting even if he can still turn it around. Picking Gibson with that 2nd rounder would have been fantastic and Rakell looks very solid too. Of course there is no guarantee the Leafs make these picks but the Gibson pick would have made sense for the Leafs at the time. I think the Leafs would have reached at the Rakell pick and maybe would have even traded back for Brett Ritchie. Would have been the perfect (and better) consolation prize for not getting Biggs.

The 2nd that went for Liles was a fair deal at the time, sadly it just ended bad.

 

[X66]

It was the same thing under the Wilson era, no goaltending to save their lives. It's the only reason the finished so low those few years.

 

[WarriorofTime]

When Seguin has five 30+ goal seasons by the age of 26 and actually makes an impact in the post-season, then come back and spew that garbage.

Lol, Seguin's a Cup Champ dude. The Leafs have played exactly 1 playoff round in Kessel's tenure.

It wasn't "luck" at all. Their starting goalie was Vesa Tosakala....

 

[34]

Kessel is better than ANY player in the trade, by a mile! He came at a high price yes... but its Phil Kessel!

 

[EscapeGoat]

Not many people expected the Leafs to have a top 2 pick. So yes, unlucky.

 

[hockeygeek]

Super unlucky. It would have been a total fleece job had the Leafs finished 4 or 5 spots better. I still think it was a bold move by the gm. As a Leafs fan I don't really hate the trade but I think the Bruins got the edge for sure

 

[Hardyvan123]

I would reverse that trade in half a heart beat and I'm a leafs fan.

some of the biggest reasons.

kessel already 26 and a 8 million$ cap hit, 5 wasted seasons here, the team is nowhere even close to being anything worth a damn and a winger with many limitations.

Seguin 22 and a #1 C already , we could really use those 4 extra years to keep trying to fix this.

Hamilton , 21 , 5 extra years to fix this. RHD with top pairing future

A #1 C and top pairing if not future #1d for a #1 winger, bah burned.

PS. for the record I railed on this board about the trade the moment I got back from Germany , this team was in no position to be trading around first round slots.

pretty much this. no one really makes this trade and the odds weren't in the Leafs favour at the time, sure maybe a lil bad luck but losers (in the sense that the Leafs weren't a winning organization at the time of the trade) always have bad luck as the saying goes eh?

 

[RandV]

The thread is posing the question how unlucky were the Leafs to finish as low as they did in the following two years, but couldn't you also say they were very lucky they are that Kessel turned out as well as he did?

 

[TheThrill81*]

Seguin has bested Phils best year, sorry it's not garbage. And if you wanna talk playoffs, one of them has a cup... The other ya wow it's great he scored 30 goals without a ever having to set foot in his own end...

You know who else has a Stanley Cup? Matt Cooke. Get that BS out here, everyone knows Tim Thomas was one of the, if not the main reason the Bruins won the Cup. Seguin doesn't even factor into it. Your jibe about Kessel never setting foot in his own end shows how much you're stuck in the past.

 

[UnrefinedCrude]

When Seguin has five 30+ goal seasons by the age of 26 and actually makes an impact in the post-season, then come back and spew that garbage.

his performance against Tampa had more impact on a playoffs run than Kessel ever has. it is nonsense to say he didn't factor into their run.

He had at least a couple of remarkable games when they needed them, when the team was up against the ropes. IMO, they don't get past tampa without what he did that series.

Kessel hasn't done the same thing.

 

[hatterson]

Alright folks, lets not turn this into a Kessel v Seguin debate, that's been done about a million times already and this isn't the appropriate subforum for it.

The original question was, given that the Leafs acquired a high end scoring winger, what were the chances the picks they traded away would put the Bruins in a position to come out with better players?

Please try and stick on topic (if there is even anything else to add at this point)

 

[Faltorvo]

Alright folks, lets not turn this into a Kessel v Seguin debate, that's been done about a million times already and this isn't the appropriate subforum for it.

The original question was, given that the Leafs acquired a high end scoring winger, what were the chances the picks they traded away would put the Bruins in a position to come out with better players?

Please try and stick on topic (if there is even anything else to add at this point)

hat I need to disagree with your stance a little bit here.

I can't see how one measures the "lucky/unlucky" part of this without , measuring and debating what Boston got in return. Is it not the players they picked that mattered, more then say the actual draft slot #?

Would we even have this debate if say boston had picked a "Filitov" type pick at #2?

 

[Faltorvo]

So now for the luck/unlucky part of this.

I had predicted a lotto position(bottom 5) finish the year we finished 2nd last.

I even made a long winded post with my reasons and justifications.

So from my POV , starting with the bottom 5 mind set, a few twists and turns during the season to make it bottom 2 was not very surprising or unlucky at all.

 

[JoeyBeans]

Toronto is A different market.


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