Juraj Slafkovsky - Year Two

[japhi]

When you get burned over kids showing signs of progress for 25+ years you kinda get defensive about it

Definitely helps to be able to do your own talent analysis.

I remember the first time I saw Galch and KK skate in the NHL, thinking uh oh. Couldn't think of many high end modern players that skated so poorly. Or Galch, big players that skated poorly AND didn;t use their size.

Conversely, Slaf has all the tools and was very clearly struggling with time and space, and also very clearly improving week over week.

Hockey is a tough game to analyze and if you rely on others then yes it could get frustrating.

 

[Kennerback]

Please explain why it is ridiculous to believe Slafkovsky can hit 90 points in a season.

Give me the prescient details please.

You’ve said your posts are reasonable middle ground posts, but you haven’t given any reasoning behind your takes. What is it exactly that makes you believe he won’t be a ppg in at least one season in his career?

It's a statistical probability that he might hit 90 points but still an unlikely event. Slafkovsky is more valuable than Roy but is not as good a finisher. A lot of his contribution will be proto-assists and other non-scoreboard contribution that leads to goals.

 

[Tabarouette]

Definitely helps to be able to do your own talent analysis.

I remember the first time I saw Galch and KK skate in the NHL, thinking uh oh. Couldn't think of many high end modern players that skated so poorly. Or Galch, big players that skated poorly AND didn;t use their size.

Conversely, Slaf has all the tools and was very clearly struggling with time and space, and also very clearly improving week over week.

Hockey is a tough game to analyze and if you rely on others then yes it could get frustrating.

Galchenyuk was particularly frustrating to me man. If people think this Slaf discussion is rough man, having to argue with people who were predicting Galchenyuk would be a superstar any time this dickhead would pull off a cool deke (before losing the puck for the 6th time this shift) was the dark ages of hockey discussion

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Definitely helps to be able to do your own talent analysis.

I remember the first time I saw Galch and KK skate in the NHL, thinking uh oh. Couldn't think of many high end modern players that skated so poorly. Or Galch, big players that skated poorly AND didn;t use their size.

Conversely, Slaf has all the tools and was very clearly struggling with time and space, and also very clearly improving week over week.

Hockey is a tough game to analyze and if you rely on others then yes it could get frustrating.

I had similar moments with Galchenyuk but kind of compartmentalized it.

When Galch and Forsberg were at the WJCs and Forsberg was flying and Galch...was not.

I kept thinking he'd get bigger and stronger and faster and he really never did. The skating improved but nowhere enough. Galch was drafted near 200 lbs and I thought/hoped he'd do something close to 220 which might not have been a good assumption on my part but still he just kind of stagnated.

 

[japhi]

Galchenyuk was particularly frustrating to me man. If people think this Slaf discussion is rough man, having to argue with people who were predicting Galchenyuk would be a superstar any time this dickhead would pull off a cool deke (before losing the puck for the 6th time this shift) was the dark ages of hockey discussion

Yes, that outside inside move he tried 26K times, that never worked. He was limited from the day he stepped into the NHL and it's a miracle that the team got the production out of him they did, and when injuries and substance issues came into play it was over.

Slaf to my eye, I could see the potential from day one. Sky is the limit, no one that is watching the games and following the player should be disappointed. Won't predict where he ends up but his dev curve is ridiculous, he has a unicorn skill set, and he is no producing at a great clip for a 19yo. What's not to like?

 

[417]

well clearly not *everyone*

who can't go on Hockey DB or read a box score.

It doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[Tabarouette]

who can't go on Hockey DB or read a box score.

It doesn't tell the whole story.

well i'd argue the eye test was significantly worse than the already terrible on-paper test, that's part of the issue where we all disagreed and I don't (or didn't since he's doing better now) see it

 

[Kennerback]

Yes, that outside inside move he tried 26K times, that never worked. He was limited from the day he stepped into the NHL and it's a miracle that the team got the production out of him they did, and when injuries and substance issues came into play it was over.

Slaf to my eye, I could see the potential from day one. Sky is the limit, no one that is watching the games and following the player should be disappointed. Won't predict where he ends up but his dev curve is ridiculous, he has a unicorn skill set, and he is no producing at a great clip for a 19yo. What's not to like?

Slaf can create scoring opportunities like no prospect I've seen before. I only ever hoped slow and steady progression from KK or Galchenyuk. Which was OK. It's one of the reasons I've been more frustrated with Slaf than I ever was with the other two. Because there's this amazing discrepancy between what I believe Slaf could do (and what I could have never dreamed of from the two other) and what he's been actually doing.

 

[Tabarouette]

I also won't attack anyone (because I don't keep track of who the hell says what who cares) but people are also rewriting history pretty hard for Galchenyuk now that he's been exposed this hard

Where's the "yeah but he scored 30 goals" crowd at raise your hand

 

[LesCanadiens]

It's a statistical probability that he might hit 90 points but still an unlikely event. Slafkovsky is more valuable than Roy but is not as good a finisher. A lot of his contribution will be proto-assists and other non-scoreboard contribution that leads to goals.

That's the definition of ceiling. He has the tools and he has the toolbox. Stuff like his shot is very easily fixable. I don't see anyone guaranteeing he's a 90pt guy (I'm definitely not), I just see people saying the potential is there. He wasn't chosen 1OA for nothing. Poor draft year or not. Unlike guys like Galch or KK, he has the 2 key elements IMO needed to surprise even his harshest critics: Coachability and will.

Same posters who disappeared when he started performing reappear suddenly only to mock and ridicule. I just don't get it We're all just projecting what the future may hold for a 19 year old prospect. And there is not doubt the range can be very wide. But to mock people for making a case for a 90pt career year/ceiling on a 19 year old 240lb, 6'3" forward oozing with skill, is really unfair.

 

[417]

well i'd argue the eye test was significantly worse than the already terrible on-paper test, that's part of the issue where we all disagreed and I don't (or didn't since he's doing better now) see it

An eye test is only valuable if it's sanitized...if you're looking at the eye test with a player through the performance lens of previous 1st overall picks, then you're not being true to that process.

How many times have we had discussions in this thread about "Well Jack Hughes or Joe Thornton did this his first 82 games"...does that really matter? Is that really fair to the "eye test"?

If when you're watching Slafkovsky you're judging everything he's doing through the lens of what Jack Hughes was doing at the same time...then that eye test isn't worth anything.

Personally, the only lens I've watched Slafkovsky through is through the lens that he was/is one of the few teenagers in the world playing hockey in the best league in the world and he's not doing so out of default or because the team wants to do him a solid. Him not performing at an exceptional rate for the first 82 games of his NHL career, isn't a harbinger or prophecy of doom like many seem to imply (or flat out say) it was.

I argued that at the time and everything that's currently happening now, supports it. We're just way too impatient as fans.

 

[le_sean]

An eye test is only valuable if it's sanitized...if you're looking at the eye test with a player through the performance lens of previous 1st overall picks, then you're not being true to that process.

How many times have we had discussions in this thread about "Well Jack Hughes or Joe Thornton did this his first 82 games"...does that really matter? Is that really fair to the "eye test"?

If when you're watching Slafkovsky you're judging everything he's doing through the lens of what Jack Hughes was doing at the same time...then that eye test isn't worth anything.

Personally, the only lens I've watched Slafkovsky through is through the lens that he was/is one of the few teenagers in the world playing hockey in the best league in the world and he's not doing so out of default or because the team wants to do him a solid. Him not performing at an exceptional rate for the first 82 games of his NHL career, isn't a harbinger or prophecy of doom like many seem to imply (or flat out say) it was.

I argued that at the time and everything that's currently happening now, supports it. We're just way too impatient as fans.

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I also won't attack anyone (because I don't keep track of who the hell says what who cares) but people are also rewriting history pretty hard for Galchenyuk now that he's been exposed this hard

Where's the "yeah but he scored 30 goals" crowd at raise your hand

Well to elaborate on my last post to japhi, I did say I compartmentalized the bad stuff. Which means I still believed in him despite the things I saw that were worrisome. To what point, I can't remember exactly.

I agreed with management fairly quickly that he was better at the wing but him not getting chances there while DD seemed to have an infinite amount of rope was stupid. But yes, I was very high on him initially and it carried on longer than it should've. I can't remember if I was shouting down people who held your opinion.

I was much more vehement defending KK but again he stagnated. I still think if he put it all together that was a helluva player. A #2C who could create havoc with his forecheck and size. I think there was potential there and stand by him showing more potential than Galch did in the first couple years.

I was pretty rough with people over KK, that much I remember but I still believe the potential was there.

So hopefully that quells your revisionism fears from me.

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

they seemed confident that what was wrong was fixable.

 

[BenchBrawl]

New Jersey fans thinking we would flip Slaf for Nemec = lol

Delusional.

 

[Rapala]

Still a Bambi, but it’s coming next year we take a step

Hey I didn't choose this Avvy for a Bambi.

 

[Rapala]

The tape job checks out lol

Wait a minute they don't take the stick away like they do in Boston.

 

[Rapala]

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

I think it's safe to say Slaf's work over the summer was evident from day 1 in camp and kept him away from Laval.
I also think it's safe to say Slaf will be a 65-70 point player with benefits and the upside is still there depending how he continues to progress.
Does anyone think he won't be able to match the great Max Domi's output?

 

[Goalfield22]

One of the attributes scouts lauded about Slaf was his coachability. It seems they were 100% correct.

 

[Heffyhoof]

He's been great lately, but MSL is going to need to keep breaking out the shooter tutor. We've got scoring from in close with the huge frame down, now it's about releasing faster in stride and off the pass from around the hashmarks.

He'll never be Cole, but if he can get around 20-25 goals in a year, I see good reason to expect at least a season or two where he gets around 65-70 assists and 90 points on a contending team.

 

[JoelWarlord]

hey I actually do like the phrase "fandom anxiety" and I will admit 100% i'm afflicted by it

This guy is not a typical 1st overall and I highly doubt his ceiling is near the typical 1st overall, our core around him is *ok* in some places, we still don't have any superstars, we don't have enough talent, but we're already looking like a team that will not be bad enough to keep tanking much longer, while also not being anywhere good enough to contend

Yeah for sure, I definitely share the concerns that Slafkovsky/Suzuki/Caufield/Dach/Newhook + one of the forwards from this draft (assuming we don't end up with Celebrini or maybe Lindstrom) won't be enough. It would have been nice if there was a Bedard/McDavid/Crosby for us at #1 but there just wasn't and it's unfair to lump the fanbase baggage or those hopes for a superstar on this player.

As for the conversation about him being the worst skater in the league idk, I just think that's fairly extreme. I'm not going to say he was retroactively "good" but compared to his role which was generally being used in 4th/low 3rd line mins he was about as productive as anyone else in that role (the per 60 rates compared to eg. Spezza when he was a luxury scoring 4C for the Leafs etc). Not that I expect ppl to throw flowers for that but it's not like the guy was Pezzetta either. To my eye the flashes were always there and he just looked like a lost puppy adjusting to the NHL. That's not "good" but also not a terrifying thing for a teenage player who's learning IMO, and it's a concept we all accept when it comes to drafting SHL players with 8 points in 46 games too.

It reminds me a lot of watching early career Josh Allen where there were a lot of obvious problems with his game and the stat lines were "horrible" but when you actually watched him play there were drives where you could see it all click and the upside was still very tangible even if the overall level of play wasn't there yet. The flaws were in the details and technical side of things and I see rookie (and current) Slafkovsky similarly. He was learning to play off the puck and use his frame in the NHL, not some total scrub that just got a magic infusion of talent 7-8 weeks ago. I'm not arguing Slafkovsky has the same upside as Allen but there's a lot of parallels there and it's a good example of the nuance between "bad" statlines/awkward eye test bad xG results/shot share etc and bad projections/bad development etc. Struggling at the highest level does not always mean a player is not ready to be there IMO.

I am a scared little boy and i'm definitely afraid that we missed our tanking window (and sadly, he should've been the centerpiece) and that we're most likely back to being a drive for 9th team for the next decade and it's affecting my opinions for sure, it f***ing sucks, i'd love to cheer for a team that isn't just ok for once

I'm bullish on Slafkovsky but I share these concerns, I don't think the current forward core is good enough unless we get Celebrini. I don't think it's a finished product though and I think we have a clearer path to being in the 2010s Blues or pre-Eichel Vegas tier if nobody emerges as a franchise forward, and it's comparatively easier to trade from that position than to try and patch all the holes on a Price/Subban/Pacioretty type core, and there's always a possibility someone will surpass expectations (I don't think "reasonable" analysts expected Subban would hit the heights he did for instance).

The "good" thing this time around is it doesn't seem like we'll have goaltending that can single handedly carry a mediocre roster so the skaters are going to have to do it themselves. Our goaltending has been good this year but in the sense of taking a 28th place team to ~25th, not Price Hart/Vezina with DD as the #1 center level. The skaters will have to do most of the heavy lifting this time around and we'll be picking around the top 10ish until they can do it.

 

[Habssince89]

One of the attributes scouts lauded about Slaf was his coachability. It seems they were 100% correct.

The off-ice commitment and attitude is what might make him a superstar. I feel like he's just going to keep rounding out his game.

 

[Tabarouette]

Yeah for sure, I definitely share the concerns that Slafkovsky/Suzuki/Caufield/Dach/Newhook + one of the forwards from this draft (assuming we don't end up with Celebrini or maybe Lindstrom) will be enough as is. It would have been nice if there was a Bedard/McDavid/Crosby for us at #1 but there just wasn't and it's unfair to lump the fanbase baggage or those hopes for a superstar on this player.

As for the conversation about him being the worst skater in the league idk, I just think that's fairly extreme. I'm not going to say he was retroactively "good" but compared to his role which was generally being used in 4th/low 3rd line mins he was about as productive as anyone else in that role (the per 60 rates compared to eg. Spezza when he was a luxury scoring 4C for the Leafs etc). Not that I expect ppl to throw flowers for that but it's not like the guy was Pezzetta either. To my eye the flashes were always there and he just looked like a lost puppy adjusting to the NHL. That's not "good" but also not a terrifying thing for a teenage player who's learning IMO, and it's a concept we all accept when it comes to drafting SHL players with 8 points in 46 games too.

It reminds me a lot of watching early career Josh Allen where there were a lot of obvious problems with his game and the stat lines were "horrible" but when you actually watched him play there were drives where you could see it all click and the upside was still very tangible even if the overall level of play wasn't there yet. The flaws were in the details and technical side of things and I see rookie (and current) Slafkovsky similarly. He was learning to play off the puck and use his frame in the NHL, not some total scrub that just got a magic infusion of talent 7-8 weeks ago. I'm not arguing Slafkovsky has the same upside as Allen but there's a lot of parallels there and it's a good example of the nuance between "bad" statlines/awkward eye test bad xG results/shot share etc and bad projections/bad development etc. Struggling at the highest level does not always mean a player is not ready to be there IMO.

I'm bullish on Slafkovsky but I share these concerns, I don't think the current forward core is good enough unless we get Celebrini. I don't think it's a finished product though and I think we have a clearer path to being in the 2010s Blues or pre-Eichel Vegas tier if nobody emerges as a franchise forward, and it's comparatively easier to trade from that position than to try and patch all the holes on a Price/Subban/Pacioretty type core, and there's always a possibility someone will surpass expectations (I don't think "reasonable" analysts expected Subban would hit the heights he did for instance).

The "good" thing this time around is it doesn't seem like we'll have goaltending that can single handedly carry a mediocre roster so the skaters are going to have to do it themselves. Our goaltending has been good this year but in the sense of taking a 28th place team to ~25th, not Price Hart/Vezina with DD as the #1 center level. The skaters will have to do most of the heavy lifting this time around and we'll be picking around the top 10ish until they can do it.

I said he was *one of* the worst, it wasn't pretty to watch and the stats were there to back it up for a while. It's much better now

And yeah the point on goaltending is so weird to us as a fanbase specifically, because the league clearly entered a new era while we still had Price and while he's still on our mind. But ultimately what you need nowadays is just a serviceable goalie who can get hot at the right time which hey, honestly, I like Montembeault and I think he's a perfectly ok goaltender in this NHL

 

[BLONG7]

New Jersey fans thinking we would flip Slaf for Nemec = lol

Delusional.

Slaf is like a train................he is rolling along the track..............let's see where this goes the next season or two.
I think the guy will become a 60-75 pt player......Suzuki or Dach as his C...........

Can't help but notice this thread is missing someone? Is he not allowed to post here anymore?
What did I miss?

 

[habdynasty]

Slaf is like a train................he is rolling along the track..............let's see where this goes the next season or two.
I think the guy will become a 60-75 pt player......Suzuki or Dach as his C...........

Can't help but notice this thread is missing someone? Is he not allowed to post here anymore?
What did I miss?

They took off like I predicted a couple months ago.

 

[japhi]

I’d argue that the “eye test” is what kept him in the NHL. Clearly much smarter hockey people liked what they saw despite the lack of production.

Exactly this, the eye test showed the puck followed him around, he was very often in the right place and was getting lots of touches. Hardly invisible, which is why low IQ posters felt he was a low IQ player when he would rush the play. Much harder to learn to be where the puck is, then to get acclimated to speed of the game. Hockey guys would know this.