GDT: July 1st madness

[hohosaregood]

Ok good points.

However the argument you just made for Hertl can be said for whomever plays the third line center. They too won't be stuck with wingels and nieto and Karlsson.

We know what we have with Hertl-Thornton-Pavs. We also know that for a few years now, outside of a hot streak from Karlsson, no one has been able to match those two, and help actually elevate that lines play.

Are you willing to waste half a year, or however many games it takes to find out, hoping a rookie, or Boedker or whomever fits on that line, while also hoping Hertl can carry a third line? I'm not. I'd rather start with what worked, and figure the third line out. I seem to be the only one who sees a lack of proven top six players on this team, and an over abundance of bottom 6 players, with two rookie wild cards.

Also Hertl was not scoring with those two. He had 4 goals through 38 games, that's no Bueno.



Curious, where are you getting these stats?

I looked at the WOWYs on stats.hockeyanalysis.com and corsica.hockey and they're pretty consistent with what he said.

 

[do0glas]

Ok good points.

However the argument you just made for Hertl can be said for whomever plays the third line center. They too won't be stuck with wingels and nieto and Karlsson.

We know what we have with Hertl-Thornton-Pavs. We also know that for a few years now, outside of a hot streak from Karlsson, no one has been able to match those two, and help actually elevate that lines play.

Are you willing to waste half a year, or however many games it takes to find out, hoping a rookie, or Boedker or whomever fits on that line, while also hoping Hertl can carry a third line? I'm not. I'd rather start with what worked, and figure the third line out. I seem to be the only one who sees a lack of proven top six players on this team, and an over abundance of bottom 6 players, with two rookie wild cards.

Also Hertl was not scoring with those two. He had 4 goals through 38 games, that's no Bueno.



Curious, where are you getting these stats?

Stats.hockeyanalysis.com

It also shows how many points he got with who but doesn't really say if they were a line or it was a late change. Because with Marleau Ward wingels nieto karlsson he totaled 7 goals. He actually spent more time with wingels than Marleau and Ward. Which I don't really remember.

With specifically Marleau and Ward he had a hard time getting the puck in the net. Part of that was taking too much time to get shots off and having no playmakers. They also got more dzone and neutral zone starts. I'd be curious as to what his on ice sh% was during that time. But I'm not sure how to parse that out.

I definitely get where you're coming from. I don't think we'd be wasting anything though.

We'd have couture back for one and jumbo and pavs actually saw no appreciable boost to their GF% in more time away from hertl. He boosted their corsi by 3%. It was 68-70 with and without for both players. Where as with Marleau and Ward, they shot up from 40-45% to 50-55% GF with hertl and he's not even a great playmaker. He just boosted their possession that much. There is a bigger sample size difference there however.

I think the difference is no one that could play 3c can drive possession like hertl. Marleau will hover around 50. Tierney treads water. Karlsson is a 4th liner. So who would do well there?

Boedker is a question mark. But for sure he isn't a driver. Sorensen...who knows. Meier and goldobin could be in the AHL. Donskoi could drive a bit but tierney is a weak link there.

I think we could start with hertl up top like you said. We'd win games. But I don't like it for hertls development.

This is an interesting discussion though!

 

[Dicdonya]

I looked at the WOWYs on stats.hockeyanalysis.com and corsica.hockey and they're pretty consistent with what he said.

Hmmmm when I use that site I see something different, or I'm not using it right.

When I put Hertl, wingels and nieto on the board, I see "together" and then each players name with stats. The "together" stats look over the top wrong, either that or during the time Cooch was hurt, that line only played like 1/3 to 1/4 of their ice time together and combined were on the ice for 6 gf. That doesn't add up to me.

If the stats next to the names are right, then I see high 40s cf% for Nieto/Wingels, and 57% for Hertl.

Anyways first time using that tool, so if I'm doing something wrong I'd love to know what it is.

 

[do0glas]

Hmmmm when I use that site I see something different, or I'm not using it right.

When I put Hertl, wingels and nieto on the board, I see "together" and then each players name with stats. The "together" stats look over the top wrong, either that or during the time Cooch was hurt, that line only played like 1/3 to 1/4 of their ice time together and combined were on the ice for 6 gf. That doesn't add up to me.

If the stats next to the names are right, then I see high 40s cf% for Nieto/Wingels, and 57% for Hertl.

Anyways first time using that tool, so if I'm doing something wrong I'd love to know what it is.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1814&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

This is what I'm looking at.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Come on, guys. Let's stay on topic here.

 

[KirbyDots]

 

[do0glas]

Watching our rivals flounder this summer makes me excited for the season.

Has any team gotten legitimately better?

Oilers will just cuz mcdavid
Vancouver signed eriksson but lost hamhuis
Calgary hasn't done anything except Elliot
Anaheim signed guenin and Raymond lol
LA signed Purcell but lost lucic and haven't improved their defense.

 

[themelkman]

Watching our rivals flounder this summer makes me excited for the season.

Has any team gotten legitimately better?

Oilers will just cuz mcdavid
Vancouver signed eriksson but lost hamhuis
Calgary hasn't done anything except Elliot
Anaheim signed guenin and Raymond lol
LA signed Purcell but lost lucic and haven't improved their defense.

Oilers lost hall but got lucic and Larson so They are better

Vancouver Got way worse on D and a bit better on forwards

Calgary really improved on goal tending and got better forward depth.

LA and ANA got worse if anything

 

[do0glas]

Oilers lost hall but got lucic and Larson so They are better

Vancouver Got way worse on D and a bit better on forwards

Calgary really improved on goal tending and got better forward depth.

LA and ANA got worse if anything

What forwards did Calgary get? Colborne left. Did they sign anyone? Oh Brouwer. Meh.

They might be better because they lost Russell as well.

 

[themelkman]

What forwards did Calgary get? Colborne left. Did they sign anyone? Oh Brouwer. Meh.

They might be better because they lost Russell as well.

they got some good young guys coming up as well, I think they are better than people expect

 

[hohosaregood]

they got some good young guys coming up as well, I think they are better than people expect

They don't have the offensive depth to scare me. I guess they're improving but they only have one real scoring line and Monahan's only been worthwhile when paired with Gaudreau.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Edmonton got worse but improvements from McDavid will make their season better than last (especially if they stay healthy). Calgary got better on the merit of their goaltending going from the worst in the league to at worst league-average (Elliot is really underrated). Vancouver got worse via the Gudbranson trade. LA is probably status quo, still a really good team that will easily make the playoffs but I Iike us better. Anaheim got miles worse with Carlyle alone, never mind Guenin and Boll and a potential Fowler trade. Arizona actually looks pretty solid now but they still have **** goaltending and I'm not going to pencil them in for the playoffs until they prove they're for real. All-in-all, I still think the three California teams make the playoffs but if the Ducks fell out I wouldn't be shocked, and I expect Calgary and Edmonton to fight for a spot, with Arizona a dark horse. Vancouver is a lock for last place barring something major (ie a season-long injury to a player like Thornton, Kopitar, etc.).

 

[Limekiller]

Latest LeBrun article on ESPN mentioned our free agency work by saying two GMs had excellent weeks. One of them is Yzerman for keeping that team together, and the other one was Doug Wilson. Here's what he had to say about DW:

Wilson, meanwhile, scored huge points in getting Mikkel Boedker for just $4 million a year on Friday. That was hands down the best value signing of July 1. The winger could have signed for more money elsewhere but wanted to join a serious contender and play again for head coach Peter DeBoer, whom he played for in junior hockey. His blazing speed on the wing is an element the Sharks needed. I also think the signing of David Schlemko will turn out to be one that people talk about next season, a real underrated puck-mover on the back end. The Sharks had a very good day.

 

[Bizz]

Oilers lost hall but got lucic and Larson so They are better

Vancouver Got way worse on D and a bit better on forwards

Calgary really improved on goal tending and got better forward depth.

LA and ANA got worse if anything

Getting rid of Hall and gaining Lucic+Larsson made Edmonton significantly worse. Everyone laughed at LA trading away a 1st for Lucic last summer, he's gonna be even worse next season. Larsson has been in the NHL for a while now and hasn't looked like anything special, and chances are he will never be.

Elliott might've been a steal, but he isn't gonna magically make Calgary's horrid defense any better by himself.

Anaheim is gonna have a tough time next season, they could very easily miss the playoffs.

 

[Gecklund]

Getting rid of Hall and gaining Lucic+Larsson made Edmonton significantly worse. Everyone laughed at LA trading away a 1st for Lucic last summer, he's gonna be even worse next season. Larsson has been in the NHL for a while now and hasn't looked like anything special, and chances are he will never be.

Elliott might've been a steal, but he isn't gonna magically make Calgary's horrid defense any better by himself.

Anaheim is gonna have a tough time next season, they could very easily miss the playoffs.

Yeah I'm going SJS-LA-CAL/EDM in playoff spots for pacific next season.

 

[spintops]

I don't see how Edm gets worse. McDavid is a year older and if they are lucky won't miss time this year. Hall is better then Lucic but I'm in the minority that thinks he helps that team in the short term. Sort of like Polak being useful against LAK, I see him helping vs the big teams in the west. Larsson isn't great but he's a upgrade

 

[Sharksrule04]

I don't see how Edm gets worse. McDavid is a year older and if they are lucky won't miss time this year. Hall is better then Lucic but I'm in the minority that thinks he helps that team in the short term. Sort of like Polak being useful against LAK, I see him helping vs the big teams in the west. Larsson isn't great but he's a upgrade

Yea I don't think they'll be worse mostly because of the improvement of Drai and McDavid. Larsson is at best a low end #3 and more likely a mid level #4 to high level #5 so the Hall drop off to him is pretty big IMO. Lucic lessens that a little but he is overrated and I expect him to decline and continue to take untimely stupid penalties because he is a moron.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Anaheim is the one team that clearly became worse. Both Edmonton and Calgary will be better but tough to say how much. S.J. should be good and L.A. will be the same as last season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Anaheim is the one team that clearly became worse. Both Edmonton and Calgary will be better but tough to say how much. S.J. should be good and L.A. will be the same as last season.

The only thing Anaheim has lost to this point of significance is Andersen but with Gibson in the wings, he can very easily replace what was lost. The issue with Anaheim is what trade they will make and how that will impact them going forward. They are very likely going to trade a defenseman like Fowler. The people they lost up front aren't of any importance and can be easily replaced.

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

I say this every year, but this is the year Edmonton makes the playoffs. I really believe it.

 

[hohosaregood]

I'm generally of the belief that Edmonton will never see the playoffs with McDavid. Mainly out of spite.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

McDavid is going to have to go ham. With no Hall, they don't have any drivers except McD.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

McDavid is going to have to go ham. With no Hall, they don't have any drivers except McD.

I think Draisaitl can be a driver but it may take a couple years for him to get there.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Is it possible that the Sharks have signed Zubrus? He is showing up on the roster today...

 

[themelkman]

Is it possible that the Sharks have signed Zubrus? He is showing up on the roster today...

Yeah I am worried about that aswell