Jonathan Toews
- Thread starter Blackhawkswincup
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Fiddy... you are so predictable.
There is no evidence that Toews has "checked out" -- if by this you mean that he has decided not to put out effort or play hard. There is no evidence of him exerting less effort or somehow playing w/o passion or intensity.
He is not playing well by Toews standards. He is not playing at a level even close to his cap hit. This is indisputable. But he is still great defensively. He still is very good at the dot. He is still a leader. He is still a very good player. But, yes... with that cap hit he needs to be a great, great player - and for the past 95 games or so he has not been at that level.
I have stated earlier that the Hawks will go as Toews goes. When Toews is playing well and leading by example the Hawks are at their best. When he is not - and this is only a recent thing (because pre-2015 he was always great) ---- the Hawks will not go the distance.
This looks like it will be an interesting season. It has the makings of a season where, if the Hawks are a playoff team, well... that is about the highest reasonable expectation. Sure, it is early and the sample size for this season is small --- but there really is nothing other than the notion that "we have more talent than this" that suggests the Hawks are much better than a fringe "maybe make the playoffs, maybe not" team.
If Toews rebounds - and I think he will -- then making the playoffs will not be an issue. If Toews returns to even 85% of the old Toews, the Hawks will have a shot at progressing in the playoffs. But I assert that while there are other important variables for the Hawks success... no variable is as impactful as the play of our captain.
lets hope he gets better. Tons better.
Hawkaholic
Registered User
It's a little concerning the way he is currently playing, but I am still not ready to write him off as Mike Richards 2.0.
He has done so much for this franchise, and is still a major part of this team. Something seems off with him, but he surely hasn't checked out or slagged off. That's ridiculous.
He has done so much for this franchise, and is still a major part of this team. Something seems off with him, but he surely hasn't checked out or slagged off. That's ridiculous.
crazyhawk
Registered User
From our standpoint ( the fans ) I think pretty much everything has been said regarding Toews and to some extent Kane with their 10.5 cap hit and the resulting exodus of a worthy supporting cast due to the cap.
As a long time fan of the Hawks I in one hand would love to see the team win a 4th or even a 5th cup with this core group but in the other hand I realize that 3 cups is pretty much an outstanding achievement and personally I am happy beyond words. I am also aware of the fact that the core are not machines and season after season of the long grind has to take it's toll, physically and mentally. Toews plays hard minutes compared to Kane and has suffered a number of concussions .. this is a whole other topic and personally I don't think the human body is designed to take the kind of abuse that a professional hockey player takes .. sure they make the big bucks but they are not immune to the physical reality of the wear and tear they take ( again Toews much more than Kaner due to their position and style of play.
This fan is happy to continue to revel in the three cups with a positive attitude towards the potential for more ...
As a long time fan of the Hawks I in one hand would love to see the team win a 4th or even a 5th cup with this core group but in the other hand I realize that 3 cups is pretty much an outstanding achievement and personally I am happy beyond words. I am also aware of the fact that the core are not machines and season after season of the long grind has to take it's toll, physically and mentally. Toews plays hard minutes compared to Kane and has suffered a number of concussions .. this is a whole other topic and personally I don't think the human body is designed to take the kind of abuse that a professional hockey player takes .. sure they make the big bucks but they are not immune to the physical reality of the wear and tear they take ( again Toews much more than Kaner due to their position and style of play.
This fan is happy to continue to revel in the three cups with a positive attitude towards the potential for more ...
Hawkaholic
Registered User
LordKOTL
Abuse of Officials
Thoughts on #19?
He's winning faceoffs...and that's about it. He's not carrying the team, his defense on the penalty kill is equivalent to Arkhipov's, he didn't have the rebound after last year we were hoping for as yet, and right now he's being carried offensively by Panik and Motte (but to be fair, who saw Panik coming out as hot as he did?).
As a fan we have to balance him carrying the team all years but last year and so far this year, with how he's playing in the here-and-now. You'd have to be an imbecile to not sign him to the 10.5M at the time. Right now though, he has to start playing better.
He's winning faceoffs...and that's about it. He's not carrying the team, his defense on the penalty kill is equivalent to Arkhipov's, he didn't have the rebound after last year we were hoping for as yet, and right now he's being carried offensively by Panik and Motte (but to be fair, who saw Panik coming out as hot as he did?).
As a fan we have to balance him carrying the team all years but last year and so far this year, with how he's playing in the here-and-now. You'd have to be an imbecile to not sign him to the 10.5M at the time. Right now though, he has to start playing better.
I'd actually love to see Kane and Toews back together.
Anisimov is hot right now. Let him and Panarin fly without Kane and see what happens.
Kane and Toews have had magic in the past. I'd put them together to see if Toews gets going offensively.
I know we all want scoring depth. But realistically with this roster we might just be a top 6/bottom 6 team. Rookies in the bottom 6 looking to make a name for themselves...hopefully some step up and surprise us.
I'm convinced Toews needs another player on his line who can possess the puck. Having BOTH Motte and Panik on his line won't cut it. They can't help Toews hold the puck. Hossa's deteriorating skills has hurt Toews THE MOST.
Think about it ... Toews is playing against forwards with high skill and possession ability. When he's the only player on the line who can actually keep the puck and you have two grinders driving to the net all the time ... it completely changes his game. And without the puck, scoring is rather tough. Toews is even spending time in front of the net ... but the puck just isn't getting through.
Witness the beginning of the 3rd period against Calgary. Toews was playing with Panarin and dominating possession. They created scoring opportunities. Toews needs another linemate with high possession skills (like Hossa). It's time to give Schmaltz an opportunity with Panik playing physical. Toews can still score. In open space (Penalty shootout / OT), Toews is still effective.
That being said, Toews needs to start finishing ... producing. When a player takes that much of the cap, he has to produce points. Stars have to score for his teams to win. There's really nothing more to say than that.
And stop with the lack of effort crap. That's not it. It adds nothing to the Toews' discussion.
Think about it ... Toews is playing against forwards with high skill and possession ability. When he's the only player on the line who can actually keep the puck and you have two grinders driving to the net all the time ... it completely changes his game. And without the puck, scoring is rather tough. Toews is even spending time in front of the net ... but the puck just isn't getting through.
Witness the beginning of the 3rd period against Calgary. Toews was playing with Panarin and dominating possession. They created scoring opportunities. Toews needs another linemate with high possession skills (like Hossa). It's time to give Schmaltz an opportunity with Panik playing physical. Toews can still score. In open space (Penalty shootout / OT), Toews is still effective.
That being said, Toews needs to start finishing ... producing. When a player takes that much of the cap, he has to produce points. Stars have to score for his teams to win. There's really nothing more to say than that.
And stop with the lack of effort crap. That's not it. It adds nothing to the Toews' discussion.
BWC also suggested the Cubs should trade Rizzo if the Cubs don't win the World Series. He also said the Hawks were done in 2015 when they were playing Anaheim. I won't go on because there are countless examples.
At this point he's really just nothing more than hot air and this forum's version of Skip Bayless.
At this point he's really just nothing more than hot air and this forum's version of Skip Bayless.
He needs to improve in many areas... not just scoring. His turnovers in neutral ice, his turnovers upon zone entry are major areas of needed improvement. His winning of board battles is also not impressive. He can't seem to keep the puck on his stick and skate at the same time under control... like he has lost his hands. When he switches from forehand to backhand (or the reverse) he seems to lose the puck with regularity. Defense on the penalty kill? His lack of vision with passing is an issue too. So... he is struggling in many areas (at least by Toews standards) and scoring (finishing) is but one of them. Again... by Toews standards -- we expect excellence (or near excellence) in all these areas because he, at one time, routinely was excellent in all these areas. But not for a while.
Everlast22
NICE STICK
Very difficult to tell really. And the whole Mike Richards thing isn't far from the truth. Time will tell though. I don't think he will fall off a cliff like Richards, but my goodness is Toews overrated. Very all round good player, but man his best season he scored 76 points and people compare him to Sidney Crosby...
Well as far as effort goes...let us even discard tge low production through the first 7 games..after all ..he did not score his first goal till game #8 last season and he ended with 28 ...Let us even discard the fact he has only 2 assists despite having wingers this year who so far have contributed goals...Panik with 6 and Motte has 2 ..so you cannot say he has wingers w.ho cannot beat goalies (like Hossa and his LW's last season)..but let us even discard his lack of assists generation..
WELL ..the eyeball test still says he is playing poorly aside from the scoring lack..but you cannot prove this to his defenders of his "effort"..
There is 1 measure though that Does tell us volumes about effort...It is the Take-away vs. Give-away differential ratio and a second measure based on level of take-aways ...Toews was labeled very "hard on the puck" when he came into the league...That is determined by winning puck races and battles ..but there is no measure for those except take-aways..
SO I did some research...This is season#10 for Toews...here are his TK-GV differential ratios for each season:
1: 3.625
2: 3.0
3: 2.875
4: 3.1
5: 3.28
6: 3.5
7: 1.7
8: 1.32
9: 2.03
10: 1.5 (through 7 games)
AS you can see his TK were mostly over 3 times greater than his GV for the first 6 seasons then it dropped off a lot..This differential is a measure of both hard on the puck and how much you protect it by not giving it away much which also takes effort determination and mental focus
...
But also we should look at tge Absolute number of take-aways
So again I took his seasonal totals and projected for 82 games to even out some seasons where he played fewer games ..
Here are his TK per 82 by season:
1: 37.15
2: 54
3: 75.44
4: 95.325
5: 113.966
6: 97.702
7: 55.02
8: 45.555
9: 58.425
10: 35.142
As you can see ...his first 5 seasons he improved each year to being sensational in take-aways apex ing at 113.966 projected out for 82 games (he only played 59 games that regular season) ..he declined a bit in year 6 off that high number but really fell off tge cliff in seasons 7 ,8,and 9...and nd so far through 7 games in this season his TK per 82 projects to a terrible (by his standards) low of just 35.142 which is slightly less than his rookie year!..But even in his rookie year his TK-GV was still very good (3.65 ratio)because of so few give-aways...but so far this season his ratio is less than half that of what it was in his rookie year as give-aways project a lot higher .
Yes he could still improve this season (he had better!) ..increase take-aways ..cut back on gove-aways..but we Can say a few things:
Based on his career stats for these measures ...we can day he is NOT as hard on the puck as he was in tge first 5-6 years of his career...and Also he has been in great decline in this "abiliry" 3 seasons and so far this season.He is NOT the same player with efgort...focus and effectiveness (leaving aside scoring) .He has of course maintained excellence in face-offs...but the stats I have shown say he has lost ability to take pucks away as effectively as he once did.Call this lazy ness. ..fat-cat syndrome...lack of effort..whatever you want..It is Real ..the facts say so...He just is not as good a hockey player anymore even ignoring scoring woes..Add the scoring g woes in and you do not even get meh
..you approach Putrid.
WELL ..the eyeball test still says he is playing poorly aside from the scoring lack..but you cannot prove this to his defenders of his "effort"..
There is 1 measure though that Does tell us volumes about effort...It is the Take-away vs. Give-away differential ratio and a second measure based on level of take-aways ...Toews was labeled very "hard on the puck" when he came into the league...That is determined by winning puck races and battles ..but there is no measure for those except take-aways..
SO I did some research...This is season#10 for Toews...here are his TK-GV differential ratios for each season:
1: 3.625
2: 3.0
3: 2.875
4: 3.1
5: 3.28
6: 3.5
7: 1.7
8: 1.32
9: 2.03
10: 1.5 (through 7 games)
AS you can see his TK were mostly over 3 times greater than his GV for the first 6 seasons then it dropped off a lot..This differential is a measure of both hard on the puck and how much you protect it by not giving it away much which also takes effort determination and mental focus
...
But also we should look at tge Absolute number of take-aways
So again I took his seasonal totals and projected for 82 games to even out some seasons where he played fewer games ..
Here are his TK per 82 by season:
1: 37.15
2: 54
3: 75.44
4: 95.325
5: 113.966
6: 97.702
7: 55.02
8: 45.555
9: 58.425
10: 35.142
As you can see ...his first 5 seasons he improved each year to being sensational in take-aways apex ing at 113.966 projected out for 82 games (he only played 59 games that regular season) ..he declined a bit in year 6 off that high number but really fell off tge cliff in seasons 7 ,8,and 9...and nd so far through 7 games in this season his TK per 82 projects to a terrible (by his standards) low of just 35.142 which is slightly less than his rookie year!..But even in his rookie year his TK-GV was still very good (3.65 ratio)because of so few give-aways...but so far this season his ratio is less than half that of what it was in his rookie year as give-aways project a lot higher .
Yes he could still improve this season (he had better!) ..increase take-aways ..cut back on gove-aways..but we Can say a few things:
Based on his career stats for these measures ...we can day he is NOT as hard on the puck as he was in tge first 5-6 years of his career...and Also he has been in great decline in this "abiliry" 3 seasons and so far this season.He is NOT the same player with efgort...focus and effectiveness (leaving aside scoring) .He has of course maintained excellence in face-offs...but the stats I have shown say he has lost ability to take pucks away as effectively as he once did.Call this lazy ness. ..fat-cat syndrome...lack of effort..whatever you want..It is Real ..the facts say so...He just is not as good a hockey player anymore even ignoring scoring woes..Add the scoring g woes in and you do not even get meh
..you approach Putrid.
JaegerDice
The mark of my dignity shall scar thy DNA
- Dec 26, 2014
- 25,278
- 9,600
57.22% CF
62.50% GF
53.95% SCF
He is crushing teams in possession, has fantastic goal differential, and strong scoring chance differential.
Toews weakness right now is in FF and SF. In other words, he and his line need to get more of their shots through to the net. The chances of 50% of his shots being blocked for the rest of the season is close to nill.
Richard Panik
30.77% CF Without Toews
55.56% CF With Toews
Toews is 63.41% CF Without Panik
Tyler Motte:
43.64% CF Without Toews
48.94% CF With Toews
Toews is 65% CF Without Motte
The idea that these two have 8 and 4 points through 7 games without Jonathan Toews carrying their weak possession ***** is craziness. He's doing a rather heroic job turning them into worthwhile players (Panik more so than Motte), nevermind 1st line players absorbing tough matchups.
62.50% GF
53.95% SCF
He is crushing teams in possession, has fantastic goal differential, and strong scoring chance differential.
Toews weakness right now is in FF and SF. In other words, he and his line need to get more of their shots through to the net. The chances of 50% of his shots being blocked for the rest of the season is close to nill.
Richard Panik
30.77% CF Without Toews
55.56% CF With Toews
Toews is 63.41% CF Without Panik
Tyler Motte:
43.64% CF Without Toews
48.94% CF With Toews
Toews is 65% CF Without Motte
The idea that these two have 8 and 4 points through 7 games without Jonathan Toews carrying their weak possession ***** is craziness. He's doing a rather heroic job turning them into worthwhile players (Panik more so than Motte), nevermind 1st line players absorbing tough matchups.
At $10.5mn per year, unfortunately, that is a fair statement. Toews is not Mike Richard 2.0 though. But right now, he's certainly nowhere the player Sidney Crosby was last year. Then you watch what he did at the World Cup, he still has "it," or at least most of "it." But we're figuring out that Toews is not a type of player to make a mediocre line ... good. He's the type to make a good line ... great. That's a significant difference.
1. Toews has never touched Crosby in talent. The hype with Toews was always that he was a winner.
2. Panik and Motte might be mediocre third line players. But they are pretty horrendous options for a first line if that's what you're going for. Panik was just traded for JEREMY MORIN last year...let that one sink in. Motte has some promise but he's a B level prospect rookie with more "try hard" in him than top 6 skill. Not trying to take anything away from them but they're not mediocre 1st liners. You could stick Getzlaf, Kopitar, or Bergeron with them and I wouldn't expect much difference.
I agree with this wholeheartedly, which is why I disagree with those who have been focusing primarily on the pk issues. The first line wingers are playing way over their heads and will come down to earth sooner or later.
Toews never touched Crosby in physical talent ... but at his best, Toews could have more impact on his team with the proper players. Case in point, check out the Olympic / World Cup teams that Toews is on with Crosby. Arguably, Toews has had more impact than Crosby.
I'm slowly understanding that Toews has skills that meshes REALLY WELL with certain type of players. But he's not the type of player who can play well with everyone. Kane's skillset is better in that sense.
Toews might be my favorite Blackhawk ever. He's a complete player and captained 3 cup teams. But Crosby is literally the most talented player of the generation. There is a reason Gretzky said he'd be the guy who'd have a shot at the records.
Crosby scored 100+ points as a rookie on a horrendous team. Toews has never broken 80 on the deepest rosters in the league rosters and playing on arguably the best line in the league a couple of years. I'm not taking anything away from Toews. He does a lot of things Crosby doesn't. But people expecting Toews' to start scoring significantly more out of nowhere with worse line mates makes no sense to me.
The Hawks decided to pay him the $10.5 million, Q's decided to play the big wings in line #2, Toews is getting older. He's trying hard. It is what it is. If you want him to score more it's an easy fix...move Kane up with him.
Backyard Hockey
Dealing With It
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We are now on our second season talking about his decline. A trend or a fluke? Time will tell.
The reality is that he is paid as the highest paid player in the league. With that comes expectations.
Kane has exceed expectations with his contract. Toews hasn't lived up to his.
We can talk possession, goal differential and intangibles. At the end of the day for $10.5, I expect goals and points. He isn't doing that this season and he didn't last.
What can also not be overlooked - he is a critical element of both the PK and PP. The PK is historically awful. He PP, which started well, has decided to follow suit. Remember, 19 is a bit part of both of those units.
Also of note, the Hawks are 0-3 over the last two games in 4:3 OT. 19 is on the ice for that. Wasn't that his big domain last year? IIRC, he racked up a lot of cheater goals during 3:3 to make his overall goal count look better than it actually was prior to the rule change.
The Hawks are in the cap situation they are in largely because of his contract (as well as Hossa, Seabs and Kruger). With the big salary comes the big expectations. He is a $10.5M player that is playing like a $6M player now. That's not great value.
I hope it changes.
The reality is that he is paid as the highest paid player in the league. With that comes expectations.
Kane has exceed expectations with his contract. Toews hasn't lived up to his.
We can talk possession, goal differential and intangibles. At the end of the day for $10.5, I expect goals and points. He isn't doing that this season and he didn't last.
What can also not be overlooked - he is a critical element of both the PK and PP. The PK is historically awful. He PP, which started well, has decided to follow suit. Remember, 19 is a bit part of both of those units.
Also of note, the Hawks are 0-3 over the last two games in 4:3 OT. 19 is on the ice for that. Wasn't that his big domain last year? IIRC, he racked up a lot of cheater goals during 3:3 to make his overall goal count look better than it actually was prior to the rule change.
The Hawks are in the cap situation they are in largely because of his contract (as well as Hossa, Seabs and Kruger). With the big salary comes the big expectations. He is a $10.5M player that is playing like a $6M player now. That's not great value.
I hope it changes.
Backyard Hockey
Dealing With It
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Defensive hockey includes the PK. He's one of the main lynchpins of a PK has a great chance of being the worst in NHL history.
Backyard Hockey
Dealing With It
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In terms of points it's likely a trend if you believe the data. First lines peak in terms of points at 26-27 years old. Father Time catches up regardless of the pay check. Unfortunately, Toews is cashing checks for what he did in the past rather than what we can expect in the future.
http://nerdhockey.com/by-the-numbers/2015/8/7/when-do-nhl-forwards-regress
The PK is another issue. Hawks have historically been pretty good over the years. They need to iron that out.
Backyard Hockey
Dealing With It
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You keep talking about goal differential. Fortunate for many that PK goals aren't considered.
Toews is one of the anchors of the PK unit. The PK unit that is giving up an average of 2 goals each and every single game.
The Corsi number he bolded are pretty significant...and have nothing to do with goal differential.
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