Injury Report: Jonas Brodin (Injured Paw)

[Wild11MN]

Using the playoffs as an example: Dumba was on for one goal against total. An empty netter. Five games and no real goals scored against. He was also 5th on the team in terms of offensive zone vs defensive zone start percentage (57.78%), behind Prosser(90.91%), Folin(73.33%), Brodin(61.11%) and Suter(60.49%).

At worst he's improved himself into the average defense type. Not bad for an offensive dman whose GF% ranks #29 among dmen with 750 mins played, whose GF60 ranks #11 among dmen with 750 mins played, whose PDO ranks #6 among dmen with 750 mins played.

Dumba is a special offensive dmen. Not an opinion laced in emotions but rather in facts.

like the expansion draft. Can't wait for it to be over.

The bolded - one thing no one will disagree on I think.

I don't think you can use a five-game sample size in the playoffs and make any conclusions. I don't have any other numbers offhand, so perhaps the regular season supports that, but I'm not going to judge defensive play on five games.

I also don't think you can say Dumba is factually a special offensive d-man right now. He has the potential, no doubt. But he's not there yet.

For the record, I am far from a Dumba hater. And yes, he's only 21 years old. I just don't think he'll be a special player from what I've seen. May just agree to disagree.

Okay, let's look at potential. I know player development paths aren't linear, but Brodin's hasn't shown much growth in the past ~2 seasons. His point totals have gone up (as has the rest of the team's), but his defensive play has plateaued at the very best. Some might argue he's gotten worse.

You can take it as an opinion, but I think Dumba's been consistently getting better season-to-season. Until that growth stops, I'll take him 99 times out of 100.

I'd be curious to see the results of a 'Dumba vs Brodin Potential' poll, both among Wild fans and around the league. But we've had a bunch of these types of polls recently so I'm not sure it's worth another one.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The bolded - one thing no one will disagree on I think.

I don't think you can use a five-game sample size in the playoffs and make any conclusions. I don't have any other numbers offhand, so perhaps the regular season supports that, but I'm not going to judge defensive play on five games.

I also don't think you can say Dumba is factually a special offensive d-man right now. He has the potential, no doubt. But he's not there yet.

Just the five most important games of the season...

Goals - 11 (t-21st among dmen)
Assists - 23 (t-50th)
Points - 45 (t-45th)

g/60 - 0.43 (12th)
a/60 - 0.89 (t-46th)
p/60 - 1.32 (t-27th)

GF% - 60.1% (t-9th w Brent Burns, #29 5v5)
GF60 - 3.58 (t-8th w Brent Burns, #11 5v5)
PDO - 103.2 (#4, #6 5v5)

Just by all listed offensive categories he's a 1st pairing dman.

 

[grN1g]

I see the potential of each player individually, I also agree Brodin seems to have not progressed much as a player these last few seasons, And I can understand both sides to the argument. Pretty much 50/50 torn if I had to make the call.

Hopefully what Russo reported about a "deal" already in place is true and we can all breathe a sigh of relieve to not have to worry about it.

 

[Uberdachen]

I see the potential of each player individually, I also agree Brodin seems to have not progressed much as a player these last few seasons, And I can understand both sides to the argument. Pretty much 50/50 torn if I had to make the call.

Hopefully what Russo reported about a "deal" already in place is true and we can all breathe a sigh of relieve to not have to worry about it.

I felt less confident about that after today's article
http://www.startribune.com/nhl-expansion-draft-looms-over-wild-s-offseason-moves/422662534/

 

[Wild11MN]

Just the five most important games of the season...

Goals - 11 (t-21st among dmen)
Assists - 23 (t-50th)
Points - 45 (t-45th)

g/60 - 0.43 (12th)
a/60 - 0.89 (t-46th)
p/60 - 1.32 (t-27th)

GF% - 60.1% (t-9th w Brent Burns, #29 5v5)
GF60 - 3.58 (t-8th w Brent Burns, #11 5v5)
PDO - 103.2 (#4, #6 5v5)

Just by all listed offensive categories he's a 1st pairing dman.

So basically most of our forwards are terrible because they weren't very good in the playoffs, since those were the most important games of the season? You just can't draw definitive conclusions from that sample size.

But yeah, Dumba has some good underlying numbers. I'm not a huge supporter of the P/60 or whatever/60 stats. Otherwise wouldn't Zucker be one of the best players in the league? I think he's always been very high in P/60. Anyway - yes, top 50 in points is very solid, especially for a player his age. Again, I don't consider that to be special right now. And yes, it could/should continue to go up. I think we're just arguing semantics at this point.

Also, I believe a PDO of 103 means that he's likely to see "regression" next year, whatever that means. Is that high of a PDO sustainable year-over-year for a skater? It's certainly not for a team, but I don't know what PDO looks like over time for some of the better players in the league. Maybe it is sustainable for a skater.

What site are you using for your stats? I wanted to take a look at a few things but couldn't find GF% anywhere.

 

[Wild11MN]

I felt less confident about that after today's article
http://www.startribune.com/nhl-expansion-draft-looms-over-wild-s-offseason-moves/422662534/

Yeah, in a more recent podcast from when he originally said that, he definitely sounded less sure. I'm kind of doubting a deal could be made that early, since there's so much unknown around the league still. Being the Vegas GM has got to be a brutally tough job around the expansion draft, with every team calling you trying to work deals out.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Hockey Reference has a couple interesting stats. Dumba had 292 total shot attempts with about 45% of those going on goal; defensive leader Ryan Suter had 332 with 49.4% on goal; Brodin had 146 with 45.7% on goal; Spurgeon had fewer attempts (272) than Dumba but got about 53% on goal. It's kind of an interesting stat to me, since I think getting shots through unblocked is going to be key to Dumba's success. Can Brodin learn to shoot more often, and be put in a position where that's his best play?

For some randomish comparisons Oscar Klefbom had 398 attempts, 50.5% on goal; Cam Fowler 372, 50%; Sami Vatanen 252, 46.4% (he played only 71 games - similar to Brodin/Dumba); Brent "the Strawman" Burns had 609 shot attempts, with 52.7% on goal - guess that's why he's good!

 

[Wild11MN]

IMO Brodin has been pretty mediocre this year. Anyone concerned about him going forward? He seems to have regressed from a few years ago.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Haven’t really watched the last couple of games but I think he’s solid and dependable and that’s all you can really ask of a defensive defenseman.

 

[57special]

. In general, I think he is playing well, with his usual defensive heroics and competence. Unlike last year under Stevens, I don't see him being encouraged to be more offensive. When playing with Dumba, much of his time is spent deferring to him offensively, and covering up for his defensive shortcomings.

 

[Wabit]

. In general, I think he is playing well, with his usual defensive heroics and competence. Unlike last year under Stevens, I don't see him being encouraged to be more offensive. When playing with Dumba, much of his time is spent deferring to him offensively, and covering up for his defensive shortcomings.

That's what I've seen also.

He's playing the Scandella babysitter role from last year. When Dumba is playing a simple hockey game Brodin pitches in more in the o-zone. When Dumba55 shows up, Brodin reverts to his all defense no offense mode.

 

[Wild11MN]

But he seems to be making more mistakes than normal as well. The second pairing has not been good enough, and it's not only Dumba's fault.

 

[57special]

I don't agree that he has been making more mistakes, and I can think of a few instances already where he has saved a goal. My only complaint about him is that he has gone quiet offensively again, but part of that is usage. He got some #2 PP TOI last year. This year, very little, if any, mainly due to Reilly's emergence.

It's a big deal when your D partner makes bad decisions and passes . That's what I see from Dumba, for the most part. I think Brodin would be better off with Olofsson or Reilly. Maybe Dumba would be a better off with a guy like Quincey?

 

[Nharris31]

I don't agree that he has been making more mistakes, and I can think of a few instances already where he has saved a goal. My only complaint about him is that he has gone quiet offensively again, but part of that is usage. He got some #2 PP TOI last year. This year, very little, if any, mainly due to Reilly's emergence.

It's a big deal when your D partner makes bad decisions and passes . That's what I see from Dumba, for the most part. I think Brodin would be better off with Olofsson or Reilly. Maybe Dumba would be a better off with a guy like Quincey?

He literally left a guy in front of the net alone against Chicago and Dumba wasn’t on the ice at all

 

[Kase]

I don't agree that he has been making more mistakes, and I can think of a few instances already where he has saved a goal. My only complaint about him is that he has gone quiet offensively again, but part of that is usage. He got some #2 PP TOI last year. This year, very little, if any, mainly due to Reilly's emergence.

It's a big deal when your D partner makes bad decisions and passes . That's what I see from Dumba, for the most part. I think Brodin would be better off with Olofsson or Reilly. Maybe Dumba would be a better off with a guy like Quincey?

I've thought the same. Imo Brodin/Olofsson pair looked great last season when they got to play together, and Brodin/Reilly could work too. I think it's clear that Brodin/Dumba doesn't work as pair, and Dumba looked pretty good with Quincey.

So for me the logical D lineup would be:

Suter Spurgeon
Reilly Brodin
Quincey Dumba

 

[nickschultzfan]

Brodin has looked decent when he has played with Suter, Spurgeon, Folin, Olofsson, and generally Reilly.

He and Scandella never could really get on the same page, but they were so-so.

He has looked like complete garbage with Dumba, and yet that is the same pairing the Wild have tried forever and its never going to work.

Definition of insanity.

 

[ThatGuy22]

He literally left a guy in front of the net alone against Chicago and Dumba wasn’t on the ice at all

Everyone makes mistakes. He's not making more than usual. That there was a high profile one Saturday, doesn't make that statement incorrect.

Agree with most others, Dumba-Brodin is a tire fire. Brodin has been pretty great with everyone else. (for what it's worth, Dumba's been much better with anyone else as well, those two are oil and water).

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I've thought the same. Imo Brodin/Olofsson pair looked great last season when they got to play together, and Brodin/Reilly could work too. I think it's clear that Brodin/Dumba doesn't work as pair, and Dumba looked pretty good with Quincey.

So for me the logical D lineup would be:

Suter Spurgeon
Reilly Brodin
Quincey Dumba

Agree. Top pair 25 minutes, 2nd and 3rd can split the remaining 35 pretty evenly.

 

[Nharris31]

Everyone makes mistakes. He's not making more than usual. That there was a high profile one Saturday, doesn't make that statement incorrect.

Agree with most others, Dumba-Brodin is a tire fire. Brodin has been pretty great with everyone else. (for what it's worth, Dumba's been much better with anyone else as well, those two are oil and water).

I know this but people seem to think he doesn’t make any mistakes at all and if he does it’s somebody else’s fault

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

He's the best player on the team

 

[Uberdachen]

I thought I saw him playing more offensively the past 3-4 games than most of last season.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

I just watched the Philly game from Tuesday, travelling so nothing live for me but I am still in awe at how smooth of a skater he is, in every scenario. Treat to watch.

 

[PatrikBerglund]

Brodin is one of the best defensive defencemen in the NHL, amazing skater and leads Minnesota in +/- (by far among defencemen).

Yet he is only fourth among d-men in icetime and gets almost no opportunities in offensive situations.

I feel he is under-appreciated and under-used.

Thoughts?

 

[Bazeek]

Brodin is one of the best defensive defencemen in the NHL, amazing skater and leads Minnesota in +/- (by far among defencemen).

Yet he is only fourth among d-men in icetime and gets almost no opportunities in offensive situations.

I feel he is under-appreciated and under-used.

Thoughts?

He's been doing a lot of babysitting this year. Dumba's play has been very up-and down and Murphy's taken time to get up to NHL speed. The Brodin-Murphy pairing has settled into something of a groove, but it remains to be seen if it'll stay intact once Spurgeon comes back. A Brodin-Spurgeon pairing would be of great interest, though.

Still, while I've seen him step into shots and join in on the rush a few times this season, a lot of what we saw early last season seems to have faded away. I don't think that can all be blamed on partners or "babysitting." He has offensive tools, including a decent shot, but doesn't really have the instincts. If he does play with Spurgeon it may free him up to experiment more and be more aggressive.

But yeah, overall he's having a good year and has helped to add a lot of stability to a blueline that's been in flux for almost the entire season.

 

[Wild11MN]

Yeah there is some question as to whether the loss of Stevens plays a role in his lack of off-season contributions. But I think it's also true that he feels he needs to be the safe/fallback guy with who he has been playing with.