Proposal: Johnsson to San Jose (offseason)

[qqaz]

Why don't you just keep him until you know, and then trade him? Then you know if it makes sense or not.

Your assuming the option to trade Johnsson will always be there. Maybe management has a plan for the cap space already, maybe not. But if the a deal with SJS is on the table and you wait, what if they move on? By the time your ready, maybe no one wants him.

And even still, your argument could be said of any speculative trade suggestion. Doesn't mean we don't enjoy talking about possibilities.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

3rd + 5th is an easy pass. We should be getting two picks in the 50-75 range in return, or a top 50 pick and a 4th rounder... Not a pick which is lucky to be in the top 75 and a late round pick. If San Jose's 2nd is off the table, which is fine, this is what I would want:


2nd round pick 2020 (COL)
Conditional 3rd round pick 2021*

*If San Jose receives ARI's 2020 3rd, we get that one. Otherwise, we get the earliest of San Jose's 3rds next year.


LW Andreas Johnsson/C Alex Kerfoot

Then I would do a trade the two 2nd round picks (likely both in the 50's) to either CAR, NSH or MTL for their pick in the 35-45 range and their 3rd round pick in the 70-75 range, and perhaps add one of our later round picks if necessary. With the pick in the 35-45 range, I would aim to get a guy like Ryan O'Rourke or maybe Justin Barron (who had a really poor year and may drop to that range), or perhaps an intelligent all-around forward who needs some work like a Brendan Brisson, Tyson Foerster, Jan Mysak, Vasili Ponomaryov, Hendrix Lapierre or Mavrik Bourque (although in this draft, all of them may be gone by that pick). In the 70-75 range, perhaps a raw, large defenseman with offensive upside like Helge Grans and Joni Jurmo or a slightly more refined but lower upside forward like Jaromir Pytlik, William Dufour, Ty Smilanic and Sam Colangelo.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Your assuming the option to trade Johnsson will always be there. Maybe management has a plan for the cap space already, maybe not. But if the a deal with SJS is on the table and you wait, what if they move on? By the time your ready, maybe no one wants him.

And even still, your argument could be said of any speculative trade suggestion. Doesn't mean we don't enjoy talking about possibilities.

Unlikely, or by that time, the Leafs may have moved on from San Jose. San Jose and Toronto would be a good partnership because they need cheap quality talent like Johnsson or Kerfoot (if not both, but they likely can't afford to do that) to fill their top 6 or top 9, and there are not too many guys in that range for them to pick up through UFA or trade... And those who are available, outside of maybe Galchenyuk, do not have nearly as nice of a package to offer. They also have the picks between their COL 2nd and their 3 3rd's in 2021 to get a deal done without bankrupting themselves.

A 3rd + 5th is like a last ditch desperation move just to dump cap, not an offer we should be realistically considering... Historically speaking anyways.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

One thing to keep in mind is that while Johnsson and Kerfoot are going to have 3.4 or 3.5 mill cap hits (which are more than fair for what they bring), the team that acquires them will only have to pay 7.6 mill in real dollars for Johnsson and 8 mill in real dollars for Kerfoot over the next three years. For teams that are seriously hit by the pandemic, that is another thing that makes them very attractive.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I'd hope his trade value wouldn't be lower than either a 2nd or 3rd round pick, particularly in terms of purely futures (picks). He's signed for another three seasons and should average in the low 40s for points over a full season. He'd just be expendable as a Leaf due to Hyman and Mikheyev. Maybe attach a condition to the pick if an interested team is concerned about his return from injury? He wouldn't simply be a cap casualty in an ideal situation.

I read somewhere these conditions on picks are viewed like a plague by players. There is word out there that these conditions will be not allowed in this new agreement. I don’t know that for sure but i read that they might be gone. We will have to wait and see on that.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

These trades are going to be very tricky. I don’t even pretend to know what management will have as a plan forward. Cap is of course a factor. Strengthening our defense is a factor obviously. Trading Johnsson for cap space to go after a free agent dman is possible. A couple cap hits at forward being moved for defense is possible.

I really don’t know what to say except we will evaluate whatever they do. I hope defensively we improve is the key in whatever they do.

 

[Nooodles]

Just please move Ketfoot before Johnsson or Kapanen.

 

[Morbo]

a 3rd isn't enough.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Trading Johnsson for picks would be a mechanism to gain cap space for someone else. I have no interest in trading Johnsson for picks on it's own, unless someone is overpaying for him.

So I need to know what we're spending the cap space on first, because that's the only point of trading him.

This would be the key. As much as the radio hosts talk about us being in trouble with the flat cap, we really don't have to move anybody at in order to be under the cap next year.

Mikheyev and Dermott can both be squeezed in on 1 year deals if need be and if we can't upgrade the defense, our offense will be ridiculous from lines 1-4.

Teams like Tampa with Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak with $5M to spend are the ones that are in trouble.

Or the Islanders with Barzal to sign and Dobson as early as next summer and less than $10M to do so.

Only move the Johnsson/Kerfoot types of guys if we can upgrade that top RD spot.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I read somewhere these conditions on picks are viewed like a plague by players. There is word out there that these conditions will be not allowed in this new agreement. I don’t know that for sure but i read that they might be gone. We will have to wait and see on that.

It's the picks conditional on resigning that are not going to be allowed anymore. I've heard nothing about conditional picks in general not being liked.

 

[Buds17]

I read somewhere these conditions on picks are viewed like a plague by players. There is word out there that these conditions will be not allowed in this new agreement. I don’t know that for sure but i read that they might be gone. We will have to wait and see on that.

I thought it was just the conditional picks involving a player re-signing with a team? Clifford and the Leafs would be an example of that. That's understandable because it could mean one less option for a player as he'd essentially be less of a free agent signing for that team.

Regarding a theoretical Johnsson trade, I was thinking about a pick conditional on GP or something along those lines.

 

[qqaz]

Only move the Johnsson/Kerfoot types of guys if we can upgrade that top RD spot.

I would edit that a bit and say "if we ca upgrade any RD spot."

I'd instantly ditch Johnsson for a 3rd if it means we can add any defenceman on the right side. I don't care if it's an over-the-hill veteran stop-gap. Even a below average 2nd pair guy would ease my concerns.

Holl-Lehtonen-Liljegren is pretty unknown and inexperienced. Can any of them take 20+ minutes regularly?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I would edit that a bit and say "if we ca upgrade any RD spot."

I'd instantly ditch Johnsson for a 3rd if it means we can add any defenceman on the right side. I don't care if it's an over-the-hill veteran stop-gap. Even a below average 2nd pair guy would ease my concerns.

Holl-Lehtonen-Liljegren is pretty unknown and inexperienced. Can any of them take 20+ minutes regularly?

Holl played 20+ minutes for much of the season.

Lehtonen and Liljegren were averaging 22-24 minutes in the KHL and AHL respectively. It's not the NHL, but it's far from chopped liver as well. It may take some adjustment time, but both should be quality NHL defensemen next year. Dermott should also be able to play 20 minutes on the right side if necessary.

There is uncertainty, but do not believe for a second that you are getting much more certainty out of any defenseman making less than 4 mill next year, and you would likely need to get into the 5+ mill range for a top 4 RD who is legitimately good (i.e. Brodie). Otherwise you are just getting stuck with an ineffective but expensive defenseman.

 

[67Leafs67]

I'd rather find a more productive way to move his cap-space, and bring something back more tangible. I mean, if our backs are against the wall, and we have no other choice, I'd be happy to move Johnsson for whatever picks we can get, and hope our scouting & prospect development do the rest of the work.

However, most 2nd round picks do not turn out to be a player of Johnsson's calibre, and in all likelihood, trading Johnsson for a 2nd is a losing trade for the team. Sure it could turn out that we get another Johnsson, just 8 years younger, but it isn't likely.

Looking back, I wish we had traded him in the off-season. I love Johnsson, but most players peak at 24, and then start to go downhill kind of slowly...so it is unlikely he's going to get better than his 18-19 showing. I think Johnsson was fine this year, just not nearly as lucky as last season, plus the injuries made it hard to stand out. Now he has an injury history, a mediocre season on his new contract that tarnishes his reputation as a scoring winger, and a $3.4M contract instead of RFA status. His trade value has definitely dropped since this time last year.

 

[cookie]

Injury prone player?

I wouldn't call him injury prone but even still, a season-ending knee injury last December may have repercussions for upcoming seasons. Skating is essential for Johnsson's game. My only disappointment is giving up on a player that under-performed last year.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

This is a f***ing joke. We slave away and tank for these players. We aren’t going to throw them away. We have youth on D for the crunch

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'd rather find a more productive way to move his cap-space, and bring something back more tangible. I mean, if our backs are against the wall, and we have no other choice, I'd be happy to move Johnsson for whatever picks we can get, and hope our scouting & prospect development do the rest of the work.

However, most 2nd round picks do not turn out to be a player of Johnsson's calibre, and in all likelihood, trading Johnsson for a 2nd is a losing trade for the team. Sure it could turn out that we get another Johnsson, just 8 years younger, but it isn't likely.

Looking back, I wish we had traded him in the off-season. I love Johnsson, but most players peak at 24, and then start to go downhill kind of slowly...so it is unlikely he's going to get better than his 18-19 showing. I think Johnsson was fine this year, just not nearly as lucky as last season, plus the injuries made it hard to stand out. Now he has an injury history, a mediocre season on his new contract that tarnishes his reputation as a scoring winger, and a $3.4M contract instead of RFA status. His trade value has definitely dropped since this time last year.

That may not actually be true. Johnsson was projected to be a consistent 20 goal, 40-50 point winger last year, and he is still projected to be one after this year. His contract also does not matter because he was a pending RFA who would have received this kind of money whether we gave it to him, or the acquiring team gave it to him. If anything it is better for his trade value since we've already paid 40% of his contract after just one year. Sure his injury sucks, but I doubt teams are going to be suddenly scared off by that and trade a lot less for him after a result (especially since he does not exactly have an extensive injury history).

Essentially, teams do not fall for the "shiny new toy" syndrome as much as fans do. His value was likely overrated last year by fans, and now is more in line with where he would have actually been had he been traded last year. Besides, whatever minimal value he may have lost is still worth it to the Leafs, who still had a productive top 9 forward for half of a year in a worst case scenario.

One other thing, most players do not peak at 24 and then gradually fall off... Not the good ones anyways. Most players do not even become respectable NHLers until they 22-24, and they still often get better until they are like 26 or 27 (some continue to get better until they are like 30, but those are less likely cases) and then plateau for like 3-5 years before gradually getting worse once they hit their 30's... But even that typically depends on the player. There are a lot of good players who do not get noticeably worse until they turn 35.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I wouldn't call him injury prone but even still, a season-ending knee injury last December may have repercussions for upcoming seasons. Skating is essential for Johnsson's game. My only disappointment is giving up on a player that under-performed last year.

I am assuming you mean Kadri?

The issue with Kadri was not necessarily that he under-performed... It was that he under-performed in the role he was given. He was fine but far from his best in a 3C role, and more years in that role was only going to diminish his value further (since term on his deal made him more valuable). I guess the Leafs could have traded him immediately after signing Tavares, but that can be a tricky proposition.

 

[Stephen]

Always better to be proactive in solving your issues. Even if the Leafs didn't need to clear his cap hit (which they know they do), it's better to be proactive than reactive.

The Leafs are going to get squeezed greatly on the return if they wait to the last second to trade Johnsson because they have to, and then are forced to take the best offer in a very tight spot.

Yes and no. Every team is going to have their own challenges this coming offseason and I doubt very many will have the luxury of hanging back to screw over the Leafs.

 

[kb]

Yes and no. Every team is going to have their own challenges this coming offseason and I doubt very many will have the luxury of hanging back to screw over the Leafs.

It really has nothing to do with "screwing the Leafs". This applies to any team in the Leafs situation, because there are other teams in the same situation, or worse. The Leafs and many other teams will have to trade someone away for cap space - there is no other option to ice a complete team - None. Plus as you rightly pointed out, the number of teams that can take players for picks is extremely limited.

Given that scenario, what remotely valid argument could anyone make for having the Leafs moving to the back of the line and waiting around for the other teams to solve their cap issues by trading players for picks before the Leafs do? That would be asinine.

They have to get ahead of this and be proactive. With a flat cap for the next couple of seasons, there is no relief coming in the form of a higher cap.

 

[Bomber0104]

Trading Johnsson for picks would be a mechanism to gain cap space for someone else. I have no interest in trading Johnsson for picks on it's own, unless someone is overpaying for him.

So I need to know what we're spending the cap space on first, because that's the only point of trading him.

Hyman, Andersen, and Rielly are all going to be commanding sizable raises on their current contracts.

Replacing those three will be way harder than replacing an extremely vanilla player like Johnsson.

Not sure why you're so attached to him.

 

[deletethis]

Need to know why certain players may have to be traded at whatever cost? Look at the projected right side of the defense for 2020-21 without Barrie and Ceci.

 

[deletethis]

Why try to build a balanced functional defense for 2020-21 when we can throw out some young warm bodies maybe on the wrong side and keep all of the forwards I've grown accustomed to? The only way I see an approach like that working is if Dubas has a plan to acquire the defense fortifications later in the season while believing the team could make due with the likes of Holl, Liljegren, Marincin and perhaps another leftie on his wrong side holding the fort. That would be a risky gamble. And defensemen don't get cheaper as a season progresses.

 

[al secord]

Unless he's got a Nick Robertson on his radar, keep 'em.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Hyman, Andersen, and Rielly are all going to be commanding sizable raises on their current contracts.

Replacing those three will be way harder than replacing an extremely vanilla player like Johnsson.

Not sure why you're so attached to him.

I'm so attached to him at all. I just want to know why we're are trading him. Seems pretty reasonable to me.

"Cap space" isn't a reason. What we are going to use that cap space on is.