Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

[CapitalsCupReality]

You seem to forget that the franchise is in a difficult position for the future. We're not good enough to win the Cup right now and we're not ready for the post-Ovechkin era yet.

The only thing that makes sense right now is to try to remain a playoff team until we can't.

What am I forgetting. I’m saying unless they get creative in a trade, they’re going to want to re-sign him and still be a team with a least a punchers chance. And I disagree they’re not good enough. Holtby needs to carry them though through their toughest stretches and not fold under pressure is all.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Haven't we already gone over this? The salary cap going up and Orpik moving on is enough to give Carlson a decent raise correct?

If this team wants to be anywhere close to being competitive for the next few seasons they pay Carlson and cross the inevitable "make a franchise altering trade for cap reasons" decision when that time comes. If that means giving Ovechkin the Ray Bourque treatment or moving Backstrom when they decide they need to rebuild so be it. Losing Carlson makes this team worse. Period.

 

[hockeykicker]

Yea caps have loads of cap room this year even without orpik

 

[traparatus]

Yea caps have loads of cap room this year even without orpik

Let's have a look.

With a flat cap, we have $16m in cap room next year. Here is who we need to re-sign/replace:

1d - Carlson
3d - Bowey
7d - Chorney

3c - Eller
4c - Beagle

3w - Wilson
4w - DSP
4w - Chiasson
13F - ?

2G - Grubauer

That's projecting Vrana and Burakovsky for top-6. Let's throw some numbers in there. I'll try to stay reasonable while considering contract/arbitration status:

Carlson - 7.5
Bowey - 1.0
Eller - 4.5
Stephenson(4c) - 0.0
Wilson - 3.5
DSP - 1.5
Chiason - 1.5
Grubauer - 2.0
13F - 0.7
7D - 0.7

That's about as dreamy as I can make it. Add it up - $22.9m.

Now, the cap is not staying flat. Let's be optimistic and say it goes up $5m. That leaves us $1.9m over cap. That's not even the problem. The problem is that all we have done is maintained a team that in no way resembles a Stanley Cup favorite while our core players have aged 1 year. Season after next, fully accounting for Orpik's contract coming of the books, things get even worse.

In the mean time, we can't do anything in free agency and we can't add any salary in trade. This off-season two terrific net front players, JVR and Hornqvist, will probably be on the market. We can't touch them. Karlsson might be on the trade market. We can't touch him. OEL, same thing.

This organization is dooming itself by committing all available cap dollars to barely maintaining the same core group of players. The same group that has never managed to get past the 2nd round.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Chop off 2.5 in trading Grubby and paying DSP and Chiasson much less.

Eller might well be gone. That’s $7 mil.

 

[traparatus]

Chop off 2.5 in trading Grubby and paying DSP and Chiasson much less.

Eller might well be gone. That’s $7 mil.

OK. So we have kept Carlson but we lost our great backup goalie, great #3 center.

DSP is arbitration eligible, on pace for ~25 points so $1.5 was a very optimistic projection. Chiasson is on pace for ~13 goals and UFA. If we don't sign him for $1.5m, someone else will.

We get rid of all these guys, replace them with players that cost $0. After all this, we are a much crappier version of this years team.

 

[hockeykicker]

Let's have a look.

With a flat cap, we have $16m in cap room next year. Here is who we need to re-sign/replace:

1d - Carlson
3d - Bowey
7d - Chorney

3c - Eller
4c - Beagle

3w - Wilson
4w - DSP
4w - Chiasson
13F - ?

2G - Grubauer

That's projecting Vrana and Burakovsky for top-6. Let's throw some numbers in there. I'll try to stay reasonable while considering contract/arbitration status:

Carlson - 7.5
Bowey - 1.0
Eller - 4.5
Stephenson(4c) - 0.0
Wilson - 3.5
DSP - 1.5
Chiason - 1.5
Grubauer - 2.0
13F - 0.7
7D - 0.7

That's about as dreamy as I can make it. Add it up - $22.9m.

Now, the cap is not staying flat. Let's be optimistic and say it goes up $5m. That leaves us $1.9m over cap. That's not even the problem. The problem is that all we have done is maintained a team that in no way resembles a Stanley Cup favorite while our core players have aged 1 year. Season after next, fully accounting for Orpik's contract coming of the books, things get even worse.

In the mean time, we can't do anything in free agency and we can't add any salary in trade. This off-season two terrific net front players, JVR and Hornqvist, will probably be on the market. We can't touch them. Karlsson might be on the trade market. We can't touch him. OEL, same thing.

This organization is dooming itself by committing all available cap dollars to barely maintaining the same core group of players. The same group that has never managed to get past the 2nd round.

they arent going to give chiasson 1.5 mil, lets be real there
your giving eller a 1 mil pay raise? what has he done to earn that? if your gonna pay eller 4.5 mil then you might as well just say you arent trying for the cup
take the eller 4.5 mil that you gonna throw out to him and replace chiasson, pick up another depth forward/defender
grubauer is likely gone and likely copley and his 600k-800k contract

so lets go again, 16 mil:

1d - Carlson: sure the 7.5 mil is ok (7.5) (still think hes under 7)
3d - Bowey: 1 mil a little high but not too bad (8.5)
7d - Chorney: they prob let him go and go with sigenthaler (9.2)

3c - Eller- no way he worth 4.5 mil, besides they can just put stephenson there or even boyd (9.8)
4c - Beagle- this one is tricky

3w - Wilson-sure 3.5 whateves (13.3)
4w - DSP-1.5 mil is little high but sure (14.8)
4w - Chiasson-bye bye at 1.5 mil
13F - ? (15.5)

2G - Grubauer- pick up picks, copley at 600k-800k (16.3)

so ive got 16.3 without beagle (who can be replaced by the other of boyd/stephenson)

cap is going up (its at 75 mil right now and its going to be between 78-82 mil)
so that leaves anywhere from 3 to 7 mil to use

 

[hockeykicker]

Chop off 2.5 in trading Grubby and paying DSP and Chiasson much less.

Eller might well be gone. That’s $7 mil.

and the cap is currently at 75 mil and will be between 78-82 mil next year

 

[hockeykicker]

OK. So we have kept Carlson but we lost our great backup goalie, great #3 center.

DSP is arbitration eligible, on pace for ~25 points so $1.5 was a very optimistic projection. Chiasson is on pace for ~13 goals and UFA. If we don't sign him for $1.5m, someone else will.

We get rid of all these guys, replace them with players that cost $0. After all this, we are a much crappier version of this years team.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
2012-2013	DAL	7	6	1	7	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	13	46.2	27.78
2013-2014	DAL	79	13	22	35	-21	38	6	13	0	0	4	0	144	9	48.48
2014-2015	OTT	76	11	15	26	-5	67	3	6	0	1	1	0	105	10.5	14.29
2015-2016	OTT	77	8	6	14	2	45	2	2	1	1	1	0	88	9.1	60
2016-2017	CGY	81	12	12	24	-6	46	0	2	1	1	1	0	104	11.5	24.14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

yet he didnt even get one contract offer for those stats

in ahl bau is on pace for 25 goals, barber is on pace for 25 goals, heck even liam obrien is on pace for over 20 goals. its okay to lose chiasson

 

[traparatus]

and the cap is currently at 75 mil and will be between 78-82 mil next year

I don't think I'm getting my message across effectively.

We don't have to sign Eller to $4.5m but he is a UFA and somebody will offer him that. We can lose Eller but we will be worse for it. You can remove Chiasson all together but you won't replace him with air.

When you replace Grubauer with Copley, you make this team considerably worse. We are decimating this team's depth in order to keep together a core group of players that could not get it done while surrounded by the deepest supporting cast in the league. A year after that we will have to go through this all over again, replacing players like Grubauer with players like Copley only it will be about Vrana, Burakovsky, Djoos, etc.

Carlson is a fine player and a good 1st par d-man but when we re-sign him to a market value deal, our team will become worse than it is this year. If it involves removing Grubauer and Eller, much worse.

 

[MrGone]

Now, the cap is not staying flat. Let's be optimistic and say it goes up $5m. That leaves us $1.9m over cap. That's not even the problem. The problem is that all we have done is maintained a team that in no way resembles a Stanley Cup favorite while our core players have aged 1 year. Season after next, fully accounting for Orpik's contract coming of the books, things get even worse.

In the mean time, we can't do anything in free agency and we can't add any salary in trade. This off-season two terrific net front players, JVR and Hornqvist, will probably be on the market. We can't touch them. Karlsson might be on the trade market. We can't touch him. OEL, same thing.

This organization is dooming itself by committing all available cap dollars to barely maintaining the same core group of players. The same group that has never managed to get past the 2nd round.

Finley someone else gets it. Thank You

 

[MrGone]

When you replace Grubauer with Copley, you make this team considerably worse. We are decimating this team's depth in order to keep together a core group of players that could not get it done while surrounded by the deepest supporting cast in the league. A year after that we will have to go through this all over again, replacing players like Grubauer with players like Copley only it will be about Vrana, Burakovsky, Djoos, etc.

Carlson is a fine player and a good 1st par d-man but when we re-sign him to a market value deal, our team will become worse than it is this year. If it involves removing Grubauer and Eller, much worse.

This is all pure gold and on the money.

 

[Roshi]

Team gets notable worse by replacing 3rd C and backup goalie with yet unknown, so its better to let top pairing D that is going to be on Norris debate to walk.

Ok.

Eller has been good this year, but in no means unreplacable for a guy who is making 3,5 mills. There will be plenty of options to be investigated who we can get for the same or less money. He might aswell take term over max salary, so we might even be able to keep him up with his current cap if we really want.

Grubauer will be gone for next season anyways. We are blocking his developement into starter goalie and its only fair to trade him somewhere he can do his thing. Samsonov is coming over and i prefer to see him take 50-60 games for the first season, which means he should start in Hershey. Copley should be ready for backup role and if his not there will always be a veteran backup to wheel in for a one year stunt.

Assuming Cap goes up 5 mills, that should be in the ball park to give JC and Willy their new contracts. Replacing Gruby with cheaper option allows us to keep either DSP or Chiasson. Eller and/or Beagle will be kept or replaced in the same range or less than he is making now and Stephenson should propably be taking off one of those two spots anyways. After that its just small pieces of the puzzle that needs to be worked.

If we want to really work out something bigger, as Burakovsky is kind of misfit right now, trading him will free up 3 mills and bring a good piece or two back if we need to do cap space. And there is always the backup worst case scenario to buyout or pay the price to trade Orpik.

We are all fine for the summer.

 

[txpd]

We have an outside shot, like 5% or less of winning the Cup if that's what you wanted me to say.

mo. what I

We have an outside shot, like 5% or less of winning the Cup if that's what you wanted me to say.

No. How good do they have to be to be good enough to win? They didn't win the last 2 seasons when they were as good as any cup team ever. You don't have to be dynasty Guy LaFluer Montreal good to win a cup. The Caps have been that good and didn't. Appears to me that the Caps will end up the 2 seed in the east. That's not good enough?

 

[txpd]

Ovechkin, obviously.

Backstrom, Holtby, Kuznetsov, Orlov, Oshie because of contract. Orlov is young and cheap, Holtby is cheap, we don't have any centers in the system and Oshie is not trade-able.

One of Carlson or Niskanen gotta go. Niskanen is cheap, Carlson won't be.

you cant win without quality defensemen. They need Niskanen and Carlson. You seem to be talking about which ONE of aging core to move when that doesn't fix having an aging core. If the team has aged out. Trade them all and start from scratch.

 

[hb12xchamps]

Let's have a look.

With a flat cap, we have $16m in cap room next year. Here is who we need to re-sign/replace:

They already stated the cap is going up. We can also move Orpik to create more wiggle room and give Lucas Johansen a shot at the third pairing LD next year if he's ready. Plus there's a lot of LD in the UFA class that could be signed to a cheaper deal than Orpik's currently on if LuJo isn't ready to take that step.

Grubauer is most certainly gone and will be used to acquire more young assets. The Caps didn't sign Copley to a two year deal with a one-way next season to bring back Grubauer. Grubi is going to get an opportunity t0 start somewhere else unless the Caps come out of nowhere and move Holtby (highly doubt it).

We also forget about Brian Pinho and Shane Gersich. Both could be signed after their college seasons are over and can compete for spots in the bottom 6 next season.

The only in house candidate to replace Carlson is Bowey. After that we have Tyler Lewington, Connor Hobbs, and Colby Williams in the system and they don't come anywhere close to being NHL ready or are NHL calibre players that can produce at half of Carlson's level. So that leaves us with the FA class. The top right shot D in the FA market this offseason? Mike Green, Erik Gudbranson, Kevin Bieksa, and Andrej Sustr. Not great. Losing Carlson would be foolish at this point.

I agree that some of the core will have to move on. I just don't think this is the offseason to make that decision if we can get everyone under the cap and still be competitive. They can try a retool/rebuild closer to Backstrom's contract year when a decision has to be made on keeping him (which requires moving another forward) or trading him for assets to rebuild.

 

[amjay13]

I can't believe this is even being discussed.

#1/1B d-man (who is entering his prime)>>>>>>>>>>>>>a 3rd line center and a backup goalie (especially considering how good and durable Holtby is).

Carlson will come in at around 7 million per year, the Caps will pay him that and still have enough room to fill the minor holes left behind.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

IMO, if you’re hand wringing over your 3c who’s just pretty good, but still only a 3c, Chiasson being signed away, DSP arbitration and your backup goalie, your eyes are on the wrong prize.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The smart way to rebuild it to do it before everything you have to move is worthless. Unless you want to be like many around here that think they can trade our trash for something good.

"I'm cool with them being good and competing for a Cup every year." What team are you talking about? A team that cant get out of the second round is not competing for anything. If they are its only in your mind.

I'm an old school DC Sports fan. Growing up in the 70's and 80's. So lets look at where the Caps rank these days for my fanhood?
1. Capitals = make playoffs most every year. Win the division a LOT. Have some amazing players. Cant quite get over the hump

2. Redskins = arguably the worst owner is sports. 25 years of being bad to awful. "Success" is a better than .500 record.

3. Orioles = arguably the other worst owner in sports. 25 years of being bad to awful. Slight resurgence thanks to Buck Showalter. But looking like they are sliding back to crap

4. Wizards = havent won 50 games since the 70's. 25 years of being bad to awful. Recent resurgence thanks to John Wall. They have a problem rising to the challenge, and have long had true "knucklehead" players.

So the Caps are what? Exactly?

And John Carlson will get paid. If it means Orpik leaves a year early, I think we can all live with that....pretty easily.

 

[amjay13]

Robbed of an all-star appearance this year. Letang goes but not Carlson?

 

[traparatus]

IMO, if you’re hand wringing over your 3c who’s just pretty good, but still only a 3c, Chiasson being signed away, DSP arbitration and your backup goalie, your eyes are on the wrong prize.

I'm going to let this debate be. I like Carlson and he will almost surely be re-signed.

If people do not understand the paradox that this team is in, so be it. Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, Holtby, Niskanen are all good players. They just don't add up to a Stanley Cup and surrounding them with continuously diminishing talent is unlikely to change that.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't think I'm getting my message across effectively.

We don't have to sign Eller to $4.5m but he is a UFA and somebody will offer him that. We can lose Eller but we will be worse for it. You can remove Chiasson all together but you won't replace him with air.

When you replace Grubauer with Copley, you make this team considerably worse. We are decimating this team's depth in order to keep together a core group of players that could not get it done while surrounded by the deepest supporting cast in the league. A year after that we will have to go through this all over again, replacing players like Grubauer with players like Copley only it will be about Vrana, Burakovsky, Djoos, etc.

Carlson is a fine player and a good 1st par d-man but when we re-sign him to a market value deal, our team will become worse than it is this year. If it involves removing Grubauer and Eller, much worse.

How on one side of your mouth can you say "we can lose Eller but we will be worse for it", and then say its ok to lose Carlson?

Who has a harder role to fill on the Caps. Carlson or Eller?

They should try to keep both. Period.

Grubauer can go as they have a pipeline of young G's ready. Samsanov could very well be in Hershey next year...and is who would probably take over if Holtby had a serious injury. Copley is just a back up. Period.

Orpik will probably get traded.

So 16m + 5m cap raise + 5.5m for Orpik = 26.5. Plenty to go around, even paying Carlson and Eller 12 total. Still leaves 14.5. Sign a cheap vet D-man for 2m, play Sigenthaler instead of Chorney. Boyd plays instead of Beagle. DSP can get a raise, Chiasson can go.

It's very very doable, and we will be happy to watch it all unfold after we beat George on the Stanley Cup!

 

[Ridley Simon]

I'm going to let this debate be. I like Carlson and he will almost surely be re-signed.

If people do not understand the paradox that this team is in, so be it. Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, Holtby, Niskanen are all good players. They just don't add up to a Stanley Cup and surrounding them with continuously diminishing talent is unlikely to change that.

Look. People understand your argument.....its not like you coming to some ethereal, mind blowing conclusion that only Einstein can follow.....they just Do Not Agree with it.

Crosby, Malkin, Letang,Fleury. They went on 7 years of not being able to win the cup after 2009. Many thought they would never do so again, and that they just didnt have it. It was all over the sports world (and certainly here on HF) that they should blow it up and start over.

Instead look what happened?

The Caps are certainly good enough. Quite a few teams are. But will they? Probably not. Maybe they do. But probably not. Doesnt mean they blow it all up and try to start from scratch...where they may look like Carolina or Edmonton or New Jersey or Calgary for a while. Or longer.

This team is top 10, arguably top 5. They get their acts together and are getting better as we sit here and debate Carlson. If they stay healthy, they have a terrific chance to win the Metro, and if they can avoid Pittsburgh, a terrific chance to break through.

Pretty easy to see that, for most of us.

 

[maacoshark]

Robbed of an all-star appearance this year. Letang goes but not Carlson?

Letang? He has been a pylon all year.

 

[um]

It probably means we can pay Carlson less, this is good news!