Let's have a look.
With a flat cap, we have $16m in cap room next year. Here is who we need to re-sign/replace:
1d - Carlson
3d - Bowey
7d - Chorney
3c - Eller
4c - Beagle
3w - Wilson
4w - DSP
4w - Chiasson
13F - ?
2G - Grubauer
That's projecting Vrana and Burakovsky for top-6. Let's throw some numbers in there. I'll try to stay reasonable while considering contract/arbitration status:
Carlson - 7.5
Bowey - 1.0
Eller - 4.5
Stephenson(4c) - 0.0
Wilson - 3.5
DSP - 1.5
Chiason - 1.5
Grubauer - 2.0
13F - 0.7
7D - 0.7
That's about as dreamy as I can make it. Add it up - $22.9m.
Now, the cap is not staying flat. Let's be optimistic and say it goes up $5m. That leaves us $1.9m over cap. That's not even the problem. The problem is that all we have done is maintained a team that in no way resembles a Stanley Cup favorite while our core players have aged 1 year. Season after next, fully accounting for Orpik's contract coming of the books, things get even worse.
In the mean time, we can't do anything in free agency and we can't add any salary in trade. This off-season two terrific net front players, JVR and Hornqvist, will probably be on the market. We can't touch them. Karlsson might be on the trade market. We can't touch him. OEL, same thing.
This organization is dooming itself by committing all available cap dollars to barely maintaining the same core group of players. The same group that has never managed to get past the 2nd round.
they arent going to give chiasson 1.5 mil, lets be real there
your giving eller a 1 mil pay raise? what has he done to earn that? if your gonna pay eller 4.5 mil then you might as well just say you arent trying for the cup
take the eller 4.5 mil that you gonna throw out to him and replace chiasson, pick up another depth forward/defender
grubauer is likely gone and likely copley and his 600k-800k contract
so lets go again, 16 mil:
1d - Carlson: sure the 7.5 mil is ok (7.5) (still think hes under 7)
3d - Bowey: 1 mil a little high but not too bad (8.5)
7d - Chorney: they prob let him go and go with sigenthaler (9.2)
3c - Eller- no way he worth 4.5 mil, besides they can just put stephenson there or even boyd (9.8)
4c - Beagle- this one is tricky
3w - Wilson-sure 3.5 whateves (13.3)
4w - DSP-1.5 mil is little high but sure (14.8)
4w - Chiasson-bye bye at 1.5 mil
13F - ? (15.5)
2G - Grubauer- pick up picks, copley at 600k-800k (16.3)
so ive got 16.3 without beagle (who can be replaced by the other of boyd/stephenson)
cap is going up (its at 75 mil right now and its going to be between 78-82 mil)
so that leaves anywhere from 3 to 7 mil to use