Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

[HunterSThompson]

Jackets fan here I keep hearing how the Caps are on the verge of losing Carlson to UFA. I was looking at capfriendly and don't see re-signing him as a big deal, Caps have cap to do it imo. Do you guys think he'll be re-signed?

If the cap goes up 5 million, they definitely can.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Gotta track down my login to publish the CapFriendly roster, but the Caps can sign Carlson at $8M, Wilson at $3.5M, DSP at $1.5M, and a 4C at $1M, while keeping Orpik, assuming they trade Grubauer and fill the rest of the roster with ELCs or near league minimum guys. It basically just costs them Kempny. This is assuming an $80M cap.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Roster Size	Salary Cap	Cap Hit	Other	Bonuses	Cap Space
22	$80,000,000	$79,384,295	$82,500	$600,000	$615,705

[THEAD] [/THEAD]

Delete Created or Signed Player

Place on LTIR (Rookie-mode )

Place on LTIR (Pro-mode )

Buyout

Add to Trade

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Ovechkin, Alex $9,538,462 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 3	Kuznetsov, Evgeny $7,800,000 C UFA - 7	Oshie, T.J. $5,750,000 RW M-NTC UFA - 7
Burakovsky, André $3,000,000 LW, RW RFA - 1	Bäckström, Nicklas $6,700,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Connolly, Brett $1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Vrána, Jakub $863,333 LW RFA - 1	Eller, Lars $3,500,000 C UFA - 5	Wilson, Tom $3,500,000 RW RFA
Stephenson, Chandler $650,000 C RFA - 1	Brodziak, Kyle $1,000,000 C UFA	Smith-Pelly, Devante $1,500,000 RW RFA
Walker, Nathan $650,000 LW RFA - 1

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Orlov, Dmitry $5,100,000 D UFA - 5	Niskanen, Matt $5,750,000 D M-NTC UFA - 3	Holtby, Braden $6,100,000 M-NTC UFA - 2
Djoos, Christian $650,000 D RFA - 1	Carlson, John $8,000,000 D UFA	Copley, Pheonix $650,000 UFA - 1
Orpik, Brooks $5,500,000 D UFA - 1	Johansen, Lucas $925,000 D RFA - 2
Lewington, Tyler $675,000 D RFA - 2

[THEAD] [/THEAD]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Langway]

Yeah, I posted something similar a while back showing Orpik wouldn't absolutely need to move in order to still be able to retain the bigger pieces. Beagle is the main piece that would need to really take a discount to stay. Even then I don't know how much term would be wise.

Bowey will require waivers so have to figure he'll make it (over Johansen probably). I also wonder about AJF given that he has a European assignment clause in his contract. He'll have to earn it but he ought to be in the mix at least vs. Walker (albeit with a higher cap). DSP at $1.5M seems a bit high for me but Wilson also probably ends up being a bit higher, esp. if they get more term. Like I mentioned before, I'd at least consider moving Burakovsky in order to retain Kempny. Burakovsky being pushed down to the third line and seemingly being passed by Vrana makes him less valuable than a capable 2LD that probably has some upside left in his game (at least as far as short-term competitiveness goes). I do like Brodziak as a Beagle replacement.

 

[um]

Orpik is doing great things for his value these playoffs, we should trade him and resign Kempny.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Orpik is doing great things for his value these playoffs, we should trade him and resign Kempny.

Trade him, resign Kempny, reaquire Orpik at deadline for a 3rd.....

 

[um]

Trade him, resign Kempny, reaquire Orpik at deadline for a 3rd.....

that's not a bad idea if Johansen/Bowey/whoever can't handle the NHL yet.

 

[Brian23]

Jackets fan here I keep hearing how the Caps are on the verge of losing Carlson to UFA. I was looking at capfriendly and don't see re-signing him as a big deal, Caps have cap to do it imo. Do you guys think he'll be re-signed?

Comes down to what Carlson wants obviously. I think will do everything we can to retain him, but GMBM has a number and I don't think he'll drift to far from it (not after getting taking out behind the woodshed with Kuznetsov and Oshie). I think this cup run means he'll be more likely to take a "friendlier" deal as they can sell him on trying to maintain the team. I also think Orpik might hang it up if we can win this year, go out on top, which would mean plenty of money for a Carlson raise.

The cap increase means we can pay him basically anything he'd want and be okay, though we may lose Kempny because of it which would be a big deal.

 

[Hivemind]

Keeping Kempny should be one of their top priorities this off-season.

 

[Chimaera]

Pay what it takes.

He's been amazing this season.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Hearing on XM/Sirius that OEL may be looking at 9 from the Yotes, needless to say has implications for Carlson.

 

[EspenK]

Hearing on XM/Sirius that OEL may be looking at 9 from the Yotes, needless to say has implications for Carlson.

That's insane. I don't see paying that much for a D not named Erik Karlsson or Drew Doughty.

 

[EHCler]

Given the salary structure we have i would pay him between 6.5 to maybe 7 Mio. $ a year. Length negiotable. That probably includes a small discount but I think is fair.

That also leaves some money for Kempey, so I doubt he will recieve big contract.

 

[895]

Unfortunately I think you guys are dreaming.

Its gonna cost at least 8x8 with an NTC. And that would be a discount because I'm sure a team is willing to go 7x8.5 with an NMC.

Whether he's worth that much is another question. I say no but I'm not sure we can afford to let him walk either.

Sign Kempney.

 

[895]

I'm not even entirely convinced Carlson is our best defenseman. He is some of the time. Other times it Orlov and other times it's Niskanen.

 

[txpd]

I'm not even entirely convinced Carlson is our best defenseman. He is some of the time. Other times it Orlov and other times it's Niskanen.

Its almost never Orlov. What Carlson brings and what Niskanen brings is different.

 

[txpd]

Unfortunately I think you guys are dreaming.

Its gonna cost at least 8x8 with an NTC. And that would be a discount because I'm sure a team is willing to go 7x8.5 with an NMC.

Whether he's worth that much is another question. I say no but I'm not sure we can afford to let him walk either.

Sign Kempney.

He is probably worth every bit of that. If you consider what the costs would be to replace him at something of an equal level, he's worth it.

 

[CapsDC]

I'm not even entirely convinced Carlson is our best defenseman. He is some of the time. Other times it Orlov and other times it's Niskanen.

Maybe if Orlov can be more consistent. He's capable of being really good but there are too many times he's not.

 

[twabby]

Orlov gets undressed at an alarming frequency in 1v1 situations but aside from that he's incredibly good all-around and I'm not sure why people think he isn't consistent. This isn't 2016 anymore. He's easily their best D in transition, plays the toughest ES minutes on the team and is still able to carry the play, is very good on the PK, and is able to create offense. Niskanen is probably better defensively and Carlson is certainly a more capable driver of offense at ES and on the PP, but Orlov does everything well and has all season.

 

[CapsDC]

Orlov gets undressed at an alarming frequency in 1v1 situations but aside from that he's incredibly good all-around and I'm not sure why people think he isn't consistent. This isn't 2016 anymore. He's easily their best D in transition, plays the toughest ES minutes on the team and is still able to carry the play, is very good on the PK, and is able to create offense. Niskanen is probably better defensively and Carlson is certainly a more capable driver of offense at ES and on the PP, but Orlov does everything well and has all season.

Isn't this kind of an issue for a D? Seems like an important job is handling 1v1 situations and cancelling your man when necessary. Not sure I'd agree he does everything well and is consistent if that frequently happens.

 

[HandsomeTom43]

The real question is how many D men would you take over John Carlson at 8x8? Considering age, chemistry, intangibles I would take the following defensemen in order:

1)Erik Karlsson
2)PK Subban
3)Seth Jones

That's about it. You could argue Brent Burns (older), Drew Doughty (douche), Aaron Ekblad, Roman Josi possibly? But I'd rather keep Carlson knowing what he brings to the team.

Curious who you all would take over JC period for a long-term, high dollar deal?

 

[895]

If signing Carlson means

Losing Kempny
Losing Burakovsky
Buying out or paying someone to take Orpik

On top of the overpayment, is it still worth it?

I think the answer is yes but man is it gonna suck.

 

[Sam Spade]

Am I the only one who just doesn't care anymore?

Win one more game and I seriously won't care what happens with the Caps for the next ten years.

I will keep watching for Ovie stuff and hope for success but beyond that, eh.

 

[895]

The real question is how many D men would you take over John Carlson at 8x8? Considering age, chemistry, intangibles I would take the following defensemen in order:

1)Erik Karlsson
2)PK Subban
3)Seth Jones

That's about it. You could argue Brent Burns (older), Drew Doughty (*****e), Aaron Ekblad, Roman Josi possibly? But I'd rather keep Carlson knowing what he brings to the team.

Curious who you all would take over JC period for a long-term, high dollar deal?

Josi and Doughty for sure
Hedman is even more of a slam dunk.
OEL and Pietrangelo probably too

 

[Koized]

I honestly think they could trade Orpik now without retaining much after his strong playoffs. That would solve all their cap problems and they can easily keep Carlson and Kepmny.